Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[pancakes3]

I want no part in anyone who can score like a young stackhouse

[nate33]

I gotta agree with Ruzious here. The statistics say that Smart is a can't-miss prospect, a sure-fire quality pro, if not a star. But something about his build and the way that he plays gives me pause. He's very young, but he's built like a grown man playing among boys. When he plays against other grown men at the NBA level, I think he's going to have a lot of trouble. I get a Rodney Stuckey vibe out of him. He's an imposing physical presence, but he's going to have trouble finding a role in the NBA.

[stevemcqueen1]

If we trade for Josh Smith and keep the draft pick, I think our options in the draft narrow into focus. Got to get either a SF or C then IMO. If we're keeping the player for ourselves that is.

I think Otto Porter becomes very attractive in that construction. SF with a great IQ that rebounds and shoots well. Doesn't need a lot of shots to thrive. Doesn't really take anything away from the table. He'd just be a really nice starter we wouldn't need to upgrade.

I think Zeller, Len, and Noel also make a lot of sense in that construction. They'd be able to come along very slowly and let their bodies develop before they'd be thrust into a big role. Figure they could replace Nene as the starting 5 by the time Nene's contract is up and he's too old to keep contributing at a high level. Nerlens in particular would still be super young but he'd have enough seasoning to hopefully play above his age level.

Anthony Bennett would make some sense at the three since he can face up and drive and also catch and shoot. But he's not as ideal a fit as Porter would be IMO. He's a fairly high usage player who is a tweener forward.

Shabazz Muhammad would also make some sense as a half court scorer and transition finisher. He's high usage and would necessitate Smith taking a big hit to his usage rate, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. He'd be a great shooter working as the second half court outlet from the corner and the FT line extended. He could handle the ball some when Wall goes out. And also he can score against a set D in high pressure situations. That'd be nice to have in the playoffs.

His rebounding is meh though. Not bad but not really great. I could see some potential rebounding problems created from swapping Okafor with Smith and moving Nene to the 5. The FC would get smaller and a 6'9 rebounder like Porter would be nice to have at SF. Nene boxes out and clears out space around the basket and Wall and Beal are such good rebounding guards that we could still be a solid rebounding team without one dominant glass eating big man.

[Nivek]

I wouldn't say the stats show Smart is a "can't-miss" prospect. His overall rating in YODA is good, BUT there are some red flags -- specifically poor shooting both inside and out, and very high turnovers. The numbers would suggest a tough-nosed kid who plays hard and defends, but he's a work in progress on offense.

[nate33]

I wouldn't say the stats show Smart is a "can't-miss" prospect. His overall rating in YODA is good, BUT there are some red flags -- specifically poor shooting both inside and out, and very high turnovers. The numbers would suggest a tough-nosed kid who plays hard and defends, but he's a work in progress on offense.

Perhaps "can't miss" is an overstatement. But most stat models love that he is so good at steals, blocks and rebounds relative to others at his position. Couple that with his size, length and age and he's very impressive, statistically.

I think he'll turn out much like Jae Crowder. Physically, he has the same imposing frame and can bully others at his position, and he has the same type of high basketball IQ and motor. But, much like Jae Crowder, I think the eye test might be a bit more reliable than blindly looking at the numbers in his case. The numbers said that Crowder was damn near "can't miss" but the experts who selected him in the high 2nd round might prove to be correct. Crowder just didn't look like, or move like an elite NBA prospect.

Crowder might manage to carve out a career as a decent role player, but if memory serves, YODA and other statistical models had him as the 2nd best prospect behind Davis.

[Deivy202]

I like len alot.

[tontoz]

I wouldn't say the stats show Smart is a "can't-miss" prospect. His overall rating in YODA is good, BUT there are some red flags -- specifically poor shooting both inside and out, and very high turnovers. The numbers would suggest a tough-nosed kid who plays hard and defends, but he's a work in progress on offense.

What does Yoda say about Len?

I have mixed feelings. He frequently looks like he really lacks a motor. However he is huge and decently skilled.

[Nivek]

Nate: Can't speak to other models, but Crowder had a very high rating in YODA. He's been below average so far as a pro. We'll see what kind of career he ends up with. He works hard, which is a good indicator for success. The physical stuff is in YODA in a limited way. It's one of the aspects that could be tweaked. It's still in its infancy, of course.

[nate33]

Of course. And just to be clear, I wasn't trying to criticize YODA. It seems to have been a pretty good predictor so far. I'm just saying that it (so far) seems to have been off on it's evaluation of Crowder, and I think Smart reminds me of Crowder in many ways.

[Nivek]

I didn't take it as criticism. YODA has misses in both directions. Projecting prospects to he NBA isn't easy. Much of what makes a good prospect into a good pro is stuff fans, and even teams, can't see. For example, Beasley and Love had nearly identical YODA scores. Everyone thought Beasley would make a really good pro. I'd guess that most draft observers thought he'd be better than Love. Instead, Beasley is a bust, and Love is terrific.

Every prospect is a work in progress. Every prospect needs to improve to be a quality pro. Most of what differentiates guys is how hard and smart they work. Only way I know of to assess work ethic is to look at what a guy does on the floor. Does he get better? Does he produce?

Back to Crowder for a second, one key factor may be age/experience. I have adjustments in YODA for older prospects, but it could be that they need to be strengthened for today's prospects.

[AFM]

Do you run YODA for overseas prospects as well?

[Nivek]

Do you run YODA for overseas prospects as well?

Not yet. I want to get there, but haven't had time to do the research yet.

Tontoz: I'll check out Len tomorrow.

[dandrews]

Just curious, what is the methodology behind YODA? Or in other words, what are the input variables?

[jmrosenth]

Big time play by both Oladipo and and Zeller on the road against a top five team tonight. They are both NBA ready and both will easily be lottery picks.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Big time play by both Oladipo and and Zeller on the road against a top five team tonight. They are both NBA ready and both will easily be lottery picks.

I was extremely impressed with Oladipo. I would draft him even over Cody Zeller.

I also liked Adrien Payne and Garry Harris of MSU.

Oladipo will probably be a star if not a superstar in the NBA. Zeller will score a lot. Payne looks like a heck of a player, too.

[queridiculo]

I don't care what anybody says, Oladipo is the best player on that Indiana squad, and may well end up being the best player out of that draft class.

Would love for the Wizards to be in a position to draft him.

[BarnabyJones]

Oladipo's only what, 6'6? Can he play the 3 at the next level?

[Liverbird]

Congrats to the Hoosiers. Zeller had a decent game but I tell ya,I want Oladipo on my team. Sparty can't win unless Appling shoots well.

I've always thought Payne could be worth a decent 2nd round flyer. He's improved his offensive game but has always been a good defender and rebounder.

[Ruzious]

Big time play by both Oladipo and and Zeller on the road against a top five team tonight. They are both NBA ready and both will easily be lottery picks.

I was extremely impressed with Oladipo. I would draft him even over Cody Zeller.

I also liked Adrien Payne and Garry Harris of MSU.

Oladipo will probably be a star if not a superstar in the NBA. Zeller will score a lot. Payne looks like a heck of a player, too.

I liked Payne, too. I'm surprised his stats aren't better, because he looked like a pro at both ends of the court.

Olapido - he's got those Jordan Crawford-like slumped shoulders that make him look unathletic - and I think I and others have underrated his athleticism because of that - and also because he didn't used to be a big scorer - though that's been changing. He looks like an ordinary athlete, but he plays like a superior athlete. I gotta move him ahead of McLemore as the top 2 guard in the draft. What a great 2-way player. But I still like Zeller better as a prospect. You can't teach 7' with a great feel for the game.

What a disappointing MD game. Len is a quality prospect, but he just doesn't have the basketball IQ and awareness that Zeller does. Peripheral vision seems to be a problem with him. His hands are only average. But he's 7'1 with a frame to add even more muscle, and he does have solid skills and defends pretty well.

[Ruzious]

Oladipo's only what, 6'6? Can he play the 3 at the next level?

6'5 imo. You could play him a little at the 3, but he's a 2.