Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[stevemcqueen1]

Predicting what Ernie would do in a draft seems pretty easy. The FO and coaching staff has 1 yr left on their deals. They did not take on Fab Melo and chose nothing over him. They seem to have lost faith in Jan Vesely. Thety know they have to make the playoffs next year. A project seems out of the question. They were rumored to have serious interest in Rudy Gay, Josh Smith, and JJ Reddick, but by all accounts they were unwilling to offer the pick. Ted seems like the type that would be hesitant to give up a pick given the value you get from rookie deals. Now its possible that changes now they they're looking to pick in the bottom half of the top 10, but Ted will value the pick and the salary slot and I can't see him letting it go unless they get a vet who's more in their prime versus an Okafor/Nene type.

If they do stand pat, I see them going for the best available player who can bring a definitive skill right away. They won't go for a project, but will want someone who can contribute, w/o enormous pressure on them. Shabazz could fit as a scorer off the bench. Oladipo could fit as a defender off the bench. Zeller could fit as a 4 with some range who can develop behind Okafor/Nene but isn't a "project".

That's a good point about Ernie not even willing to waste resources or a rookie salary wage on a project C like Fab Melo.

It might be a stretch to think another project is about to be drafted. They've got to be reeling from the Vesely experiment. Trading the pick for a useful rotation player is probably what Ernie will try to sell to Ted. Considering Ernie's draft record, this might be the best way to go.

I'm not convinced the FO sees Vesely as a lost cause. They are very conservative, I think they're going to keep him for the remainder of his rookie deal and see if the lightbulb comes on for him.

I'd also be surprised if the FO trades the pick for anything less than a starter because of our financial situation. I can't see Ted signing off on a deal that adds significantly more to the payroll than a rookie contract would unless the return was very good.

I think the most likely outcome is we'll spend the pick on the BPA. And if Alex Len is available, I bet the pick will be him. I think we bring back Martell on a multi-year deal and we find our third guard in FA, probably a respectable vet.

[FAH1223]

That's a good point about Ernie not even willing to waste resources or a rookie salary wage on a project C like Fab Melo.

It might be a stretch to think another project is about to be drafted. They've got to be reeling from the Vesely experiment. Trading the pick for a useful rotation player is probably what Ernie will try to sell to Ted. Considering Ernie's draft record, this might be the best way to go.

More specifically 2004 (Devin Harris for Jamison) and 2009 (Rubio or Curry for Miller and Foye).

[stevemcqueen1]

I saw Zeller as a taller Tyler Hansborough before last night, and that hasn't changed. The only differences between the two: Zeller is a couple inches taller, and Hansborough is alot stronger. They both will have similar impacts in the NBA.

Zeller is far more skilled than Hansborough was, and the couple inches of height make a big difference. Hansbrough was also a 24 year old rookie, almost four full years older than Zeller would be if he came out this year. That too is a huge difference.

I actually don't think Zeller and Hansbrough have a ton in common except that they were/are good white college big men.

If Zeller comes out this year, I think he'll have more in common with LaMarcus Aldridge than he does with Hansbrough. Both highly regarded H.S. players that stayed home to go to second tier basketball programs, both leaving as sophomores. Similar skill level, similar builds and playing styles. Aldridge wasn't as big time a HS recruit as Zeller and he didn't have the kind of freshman season Zeller did, nor did he elevate the Texas program quite to the extent Zeller has for Indiana. Close though, the background of each is similar and the core ability level of each is similar. Zeller doesn't have quite as good a body as LMA did, but he'll probably get drafted in a similar range.

If I were to compare anyone to Hansbrough, it'd probably be Plumlee. Though Plumlee is a meaningfully better NBA prospect--better athlete, better NBA body.

[DCZards]

Aldridge is a very good shooter for a PF. I don't see Zeller that in Zeller...at least not yet. Cody will need to develop a consistent 15 foot jumper, similar to what Aldridge already has, because I expect him to struggle scoring in the paint in the NBA.

[Ruzious]

I'm guessing the guy behind him is doing things that are illegal in some states.

He's taking the idea that the hand is part of the ball a bit far.

[TGW]

Stevemcqueen—Lamarcus Aldridge has a 7'5 wingspan and a 9'2 standing reach. Those are wings.

Zeller has a 6'8 wingspan...shorter than John Wall's.

That's a huge difference. The fact that he's a 7 footer is pretty much negated by his lousy wingspan/standing reach. That's why Zeller gets his shot blocked by nobodies on the college level. It'll be real bad when he has to face the Serge Ibaka's of the world.

[Ruzious]

In the NBA, he won't be double-teamed on every possession, so he'll be able to avoid these situations.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYIYr75xmiI[/youtube]

Still, with him getting every shot blocked, somehow he makes 60% of his shots.

[Liverbird]

Dieng is having a good game. His defense is very good as expected but I didn't realize he passed that well. Runs the floor too. If we end up in the late lottery, I'd consider a trade down scenario.

[Liverbird]

Trey Burke has IT. I don't know how to define that but he has it. He's going to be a great little player.

McLemore is a very good player, but he doesn't have what IT is....

[mhd]

I'll tell you who impressed me: Mitch Mcgary. He's actually got thick arms unlike Zeller. McGary won't ever be a defender, but he's crafty, a lefty, and a heck of a rebounder.

According to nbadraft.net, McGary was measured as 6'11 with a 7'0 wingspan. I don't think he's anywhere near 6'11, but that wingspan measurement might be accurate. He did look like he had long arms.

I wonder of he'd come out this year. I'd EASILY take him with our pick.

[MikeTheKid]

I want Trey Burke backing up Wall, he put Michigan on his back tonight!!!

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Massive choke job by Kansas.

Johnson over dribbled and passed up a good shot for a desperation heave. Withey, after setting the screen did not roll to the hoop for what might have been a dunk if he had presented for the ball. McLemore was nowhere to be found the last few possessions. Releford clearly didn't want that last miss.

More than Michigan winning Kansas lost today. They blew it.

[hands11]

http://www.collegehumor.com/embed/67029 ... -dominates

This is crazy.

[stevemcqueen1]

Yeah, Kansas choked that one, but Burke and McGary really dominated. Showcase game for both Burke and McLemore, they basically displayed everything they can do and why teams like them. But McGary stole the show for me. He's come on remarkably quick considering where he was coming out of HS. Gone from hyped to disappointing to dominant all within a season. I think he's the one player in this tourney with the ability to complete rewrite the book on his draft stock because he was not a highly regarded prospect for this draft going into the tourney. He's very raw, but he's got some legit potential IMO. Good body, NBA level strength, a true gift for rebounding, aggressive and capable of dominating players inside.

He looks like a classic banger. I agree his listing looks a little fudged, probably a little over 6'9 but he's got some real strength on him and he's athletic. Kevin Love and Blake Griffin are shorter than him. He doesn't have anywhere near Love's offensive skills or Griffin's skills and athleticism. But there is no reason to think his rebounding won't translate to the NBA. I'd love to get a physical rebounder like him. I'd guess he and GRIII are both going back to Michigan though.

[stevemcqueen1]

I want to like Patric Young. NBA body, tough, seems like a winner, plays good positional D. But he just doesn't show up as much as he should. Hard to define him but he seems a bit like a leaner, less powerful Kendrick Perkins type.

[Dat2U]

Trey Burke is the next Jameer Nelson. I think his first step is good enough and he's got NBA range plus he's a good decision maker. Not a star but you could do worse at PG.

McGary is intriguing but I think he'll return for his sophomore season. He may have more pro potential than a Cody Zeller.

[stevemcqueen1]

In the NBA, he won't be double-teamed on every possession, so he'll be able to avoid these situations.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYIYr75xmiI[/youtube]

Still, with him getting every shot blocked, somehow he makes 60% of his shots.

I think a lot of the Zeller hate is poorly contextualized. Gets his shot blocked a lot is often a generic knock on high usage bigs who score in more ways than just dunks. People said the same thing about Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, and Jared Sullinger, among others. Getting his shot blocked constantly was about all anyone talked about with Love. He too had a well developed below the rim game. Never mind he had so many skills and still scored with terrific efficiency and just knew how to get the ball to go in.

So does Zeller. And he's got some advantages over Love as a scorer. He's at least three inches taller and he's a great deal quicker. He's a legit threat to drive on big men who play up on him, his jumper will be hard to play once he starts taking it.

It took Love a couple of seasons to find his game and his position in the NBA but now he's a dominant inside--outside scorer. I could see Zeller needing some time to adjust and also to shape his body for the NBA, but I think he could be a similarly dominant scorer.

I get frustrated watching CBB when, almost every year, the top young big men coming out don't know how to play basketball. They'll have no offensive skills and/or low awareness/poor motors. Zeller is a 20 year old legit seven footer with skills and a huge motor that actually knows how to play. He's such a clean big man prospect.

[hands11]

I actually hope CLE picks Zeller. He'll sabotage a young team's ability to contend in the future opening a path for us. Once the Heat become too old.

I hope he goes there as well. We have to watch out for teams like ORL and CLE who are building with more young talented players then we are. I would have no problem at all if Zeller goes to you team in conference.

[stevemcqueen1]

Aldridge is a very good shooter for a PF. I don't see Zeller that in Zeller...at least not yet. Cody will need to develop a consistent 15 foot jumper, similar to what Aldridge already has, because I expect him to struggle scoring in the paint in the NBA.

That was the book on Kevin Love coming out of UCLA and after his first season in Minnesota. He's grown as a scorer and his post game really grew and now he's a dangerous interior scorer.

I suspect Zeller actually has a decent mid range jumper already. He's a great FT shooter and I've seen him confidently drain the few jumpers he's taken this season. I think he doesn't shoot jumpers, not that he can't shoot jumpers. I don't think he has the green light to shoot for Indiana's offense, he doesn't ever spot up, they do not run pick and pop, and pretty much every possession begins with him setting up inside. Indiana plays small ball, Watford is a perimeter player, and they are a running team. They pretty much have to play Zeller in the interior in his lineups.

When he gets the ball on the perimeter he always either passes or takes the ball inside, I think those are his marching orders. His perimeter drives are a really potent weapon for him when the floor is spaced. Last night, it wasn't at all. Syracuse collapsed on him every single time. He won't see that in the NBA. Nobody plays D anything even remotely close to that zone, he won't be doubled like he is now, and his guards probably won't be as unbelievably bad as Hulls and Ferrell were in that game.

[jivelikenice]

Trey Burke has IT. I don't know how to define that but he has it. He's going to be a great little player.

McLemore is a very good player, but he doesn't have what IT is....

Has Skip Bayless joined the board?

Burke's performance will push him up draft boards which will help push a prospect like Oladipo, Zeller, or Porter down to us.....good news