Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[gtn130]

Resigning Webster was one of EG's least bad mistakes

[tontoz]

The Wizards desperately needed a big and a backup pg. Spending that money on webster meant less money for our much bigger needs.

That was the summer of Maynor, the poster boy for EG's incompetence.

[gtn130]

The Wizards desperately needed a big and a backup pg. Spending that money on webster meant less money for our much bigger needs.

That was the summer of Maynor, the poster boy for EG's incompetence.

The last time EG addressed our needs via free agency he came up with Andrew Nicholson and Ian Mahinmi. The Webster signing is some pretty low hanging fruit

[pcbothwel]

I repeat, I am NOT a fan of EG.
But for any of us to throw our opinion around here with any weight we have to be honest.
So, hows it looking.
- Bench signings that are outplaying their contract/cost or at least playing accordingly:
Frazier (2M and late 2nd), Meeks (3M), Scott (Vet Min)

- Lotto draft picks that have developed/stayed with Franchise that are AS caliber players:
Wall, Beal, and Otto

- Non Lotto picks that are rotational worthy and outplaying their salary:
Oubre and Sato

- Non-drafted/Vet Starters worth their salary, give or take 10-15%:
Morris and Gortat

- Non-drafted/Vet Starters NOT worth their salary, give or take 10-15%:
Mahinmi and Smith (Though he could easily change that given his salary of 5M)

Empty rhetoric, Unimaginative trades/roster construction, burning cap/space and squandering picks are all real things to a degree with EG... But it doesnt change any of the above.

Even those of us who HATE EG and dont give him credit for Wall, Beal, and Otto (Which is a foolish thing to ignore), we have to look at Oubre and Sato.

Serious question about 2015 draft. Who is better than Oubre outside KAT and Porzingis?...
2012 draft: Sato is better than every 1st round pick outside the top 10. Only Draymond and Middleton are better in the 2nd. Crowder too, but I think Id rather have Sato for the next 2 years... Thoughts?

[J-Ves]

I repeat, I am NOT a fan of EG.
But for any of us to throw our opinion around here with any weight we have to be honest.
So, hows it looking.
- Bench signings that are outplaying their contract/cost or at least playing accordingly:
Frazier (2M and late 2nd), Meeks (3M), Scott (Vet Min)

- Lotto draft picks that have developed/stayed with Franchise that are AS caliber players:
Wall, Beal, and Otto

- Non Lotto picks that are rotational worthy and outplaying their salary:
Oubre and Sato

- Non-drafted/Vet Starters worth their salary, give or take 10-15%:
Morris and Gortat

- Non-drafted/Vet Starters NOT worth their salary, give or take 10-15%:
Mahinmi and Smith (Though he could easily change that given his salary of 5M)

Empty rhetoric, Unimaginative trades/roster construction, burning cap/space and squandering picks are all real things to a degree with EG... But it doesnt change any of the above.

Even those of us who HATE EG and dont give him credit for Wall, Beal, and Otto (Which is a foolish thing to ignore), we have to look at Oubre and Sato.

Serious question about 2015 draft. Who is better than Oubre outside KAT and Porzingis?...
2012 draft: Sato is better than every 1st round pick outside the top 10. Only Draymond and Middleton are better in the 2nd. Crowder too, but I think Id rather have Sato for the next 2 years... Thoughts?

If the Wiz bench we've been seeing the past 3-4 games is real, I'm willing to give EG credit. I still want him fired, of course.

[Kanyewest]

Serious question about 2015 draft. Who is better than Oubre outside KAT and Porzingis?...
2012 draft: Sato is better than every 1st round pick outside the top 10. Only Draymond and Middleton are better in the 2nd. Crowder too, but I think Id rather have Sato for the next 2 years... Thoughts?

2015 draft- Myles Turner and maybe Devin Booker? I think Oubre has better numbers (more boards, higher defensive rating, fewer turnovers) but I feel like another team would be willing to offer more for someone like Booker in a trade and more likely than not will receive a bigger contract.

2012 draft - I would add Will Barton. Interestingly enough, Mike Scott was also in that draft.

[OzCastiel]

Serious question about 2015 draft. Who is better than Oubre outside KAT and Porzingis?...
2012 draft: Sato is better than every 1st round pick outside the top 10. Only Draymond and Middleton are better in the 2nd. Crowder too, but I think Id rather have Sato for the next 2 years... Thoughts?

Terry, Willie, Booker, Russell, Turner, Frank and probably Nance ahead of him as well. 15 was a pretty bad draft imo but Oubre is one of the better players from that crop.

'12 is another less than inspiring but serviceable draft. He's not better than everyone outside of the top 10 excluding the 3 better players you named. There's Lamb, Evan, Barton, Quinn, and a handful of other guys. Plus some of the guys who aren't even in the league anymore had some good showings Sato has to actually prove he can stay in the nba and actually be better than for example a 21 year old jared sullinger.

[pcbothwel]

Serious question about 2015 draft. Who is better than Oubre outside KAT and Porzingis?...
2012 draft: Sato is better than every 1st round pick outside the top 10. Only Draymond and Middleton are better in the 2nd. Crowder too, but I think Id rather have Sato for the next 2 years... Thoughts?

Terry, Willie, Booker, Russell, Turner, Frank and probably Nance ahead of him as well. 15 was a pretty bad draft imo but Oubre is one of the better players from that crop.

'12 is another less than inspiring but serviceable draft. He's not better than everyone outside of the top 10 excluding the 3 better players you named. There's Lamb, Evan, Barton, Quinn, and a handful of other guys. Plus some of the guys who aren't even in the league anymore had some good showings Sato has to actually prove he can stay in the nba and actually be better than for example a 21 year old jared sullinger.

Huh, Booker and Turner sure... but Frank and Willie? Sorry, but no. Rozier and Nance are as good talent wise, but fit wise its hard to imagine either starting for a playoff team in the next 2-3 years.
Oubre is a starting caliber SF right now and will be a starting caliber player on a contender by next year... Only Booker and Turner fit that description.

[Ruzious]

Resigning Webster was one of EG's least bad mistakes

I'm just hoping the Wall re-up doesn't turn out to be a huge mistake. The amount of money he's going to get is insane, and I just didn't see the compelling reason to do it. I love Wall, but the risks and cap effects were too high to do that, imo. And I can't see the NBA cap going up enough to make his future salaries reasonable. And now that it's his second year of knee problems... I'd definitely look at trade options next offseason. I know some people will be pissed that I said that, but it's not like he's Lebron James. If Wall loses a step, we're done - not just for 1 year.

[NatP4]

Resigning Webster was one of EG's least bad mistakes

I'm just hoping the Wall re-up doesn't turn out to be a huge mistake. The amount of money he's going to get is insane, and I just didn't see the compelling reason to do it. I love Wall, but the risks and cap effects were too high to do that, imo. And I can't see the NBA cap going up enough to make his future salaries reasonable. And now that it's his second year of knee problems... I'd definitely look at trade options next offseason. I know some people will be pissed that I said that, but it's not like he's Lebron James. If Wall loses a step, we're done - not just for 1 year.

Wall is set to make 46 million at age 33. There really isn't much of an "if", that will be terrible

[Dark Faze]

The financial burden will kill us, but I think he'll be an all-star caliber player throughout the life of it. He's going to be 29 when that contract starts, and it ends at age 31. Around 31 is when I expect he'll start to decline significantly year over year. But a guard should be playing at near prime level at age 30/31 barring a D.Rose/Arenas like issue.

I know Walls knee injuries are concerning, but he's mostly been very available over this career and gained explosiveness after the surgery. Not resting in the off-season is what caused him sitting out now. I don't think he should ever do much beyond shooting and general weight lifting/cardio (but not overdoing it in the summer). He was straight up doing two a days and playing in pro ams last summer.

[OzCastiel]

Serious question about 2015 draft. Who is better than Oubre outside KAT and Porzingis?...
2012 draft: Sato is better than every 1st round pick outside the top 10. Only Draymond and Middleton are better in the 2nd. Crowder too, but I think Id rather have Sato for the next 2 years... Thoughts?

Terry, Willie, Booker, Russell, Turner, Frank and probably Nance ahead of him as well. 15 was a pretty bad draft imo but Oubre is one of the better players from that crop.

'12 is another less than inspiring but serviceable draft. He's not better than everyone outside of the top 10 excluding the 3 better players you named. There's Lamb, Evan, Barton, Quinn, and a handful of other guys. Plus some of the guys who aren't even in the league anymore had some good showings Sato has to actually prove he can stay in the nba and actually be better than for example a 21 year old jared sullinger.

Huh, Booker and Turner sure... but Frank and Willie? Sorry, but no. Rozier and Nance are as good talent wise, but fit wise its hard to imagine either starting for a playoff team in the next 2-3 years.
Oubre is a starting caliber SF right now and will be a starting caliber player on a contender by next year... Only Booker and Turner fit that description.

What exactly has Oubre shown to separate himself from frank and willie? Both have had superior peak performance games despite being on some of the worst run teams in the nba and them logging less minutes than Oubre as well.

Terry plays top notch defense, can stretch the floor, run an offense and a couple teams including milwaukee tried to steal him away from Boston to make him their starting guard. Also not a knuckle head for whatever thats worth so I don't see any objective observer taking kelly over him.

Nance might not be the best fit as a starter on a championship team due to his lack of a 3 ball I'll concede that more of a bench hustle guy.

I'm just not seeing what you're looking at I wouldn't start Oubre on any of the contending teams (cle, gsw, hou, bos, sas) particularly in the next 2 years. I think he would be a solid 6th man for some of those teams, and I can see him starting for a lesser playoff teams though.

[payitforward]

I repeat, I am NOT a fan of EG.
But for any of us to throw our opinion around here with any weight we have to be honest.
So, hows it looking.
- Bench signings that are outplaying their contract/cost or at least playing accordingly:
Frazier (2M and late 2nd), Meeks (3M), Scott (Vet Min)

- Lotto draft picks that have developed/stayed with Franchise that are AS caliber players:
Wall, Beal, and Otto

- Non Lotto picks that are rotational worthy and outplaying their salary:
Oubre and Sato

- Non-drafted/Vet Starters worth their salary, give or take 10-15%:
Morris and Gortat

- Non-drafted/Vet Starters NOT worth their salary, give or take 10-15%:
Mahinmi and Smith (Though he could easily change that given his salary of 5M)

Empty rhetoric, Unimaginative trades/roster construction, burning cap/space and squandering picks are all real things to a degree with EG... But it doesnt change any of the above.

Even those of us who HATE EG and dont give him credit for Wall, Beal, and Otto (Which is a foolish thing to ignore), we have to look at Oubre and Sato.

Serious question about 2015 draft. Who is better than Oubre outside KAT and Porzingis?...
2012 draft: Sato is better than every 1st round pick outside the top 10. Only Draymond and Middleton are better in the 2nd. Crowder too, but I think Id rather have Sato for the next 2 years... Thoughts?

I guess if you only look at the positive examples, then you draw a positive conclusion. & as far as that goes you have left some good things out.

Then again, even giving the full credit you give for the easy choices (& credit as well for the moves that were more creative: trading up to pick Oubre would be a prime example), this doesn't look like much to me.

If you the ping pong balls give you the #1 pick, & you proceed to take the guy who is the default choice that year, whom everybody agrees will be the #1 pick, then... sure you get some minimal credit for not having completely screwed up!

Then again, if that same year you have 2 other R1 picks, & one of them goes on to have a long & productive NBA career (Booker), but you neither retain him nor get anything for him in a trade -- so that the pick is essentially wasted even though you didn't pick a bad player -- don't you get some demerit for that? & if the 3d R1 pick you have that year, again you turn into absolutely nothing in a few years, don't you get a demerit for that?

& if you have 2 R1 picks & a high R2 pick the following year -- in a draft that has turned out to create some of the best players in the NBA from up & down both rounds -- & you come away absolutely nothing, even though you have picks #6, 18, & 34, don't you maybe get some demerits for that too?

Out of those 6 picks alone, what kind of grade would you give a GM? A good one, b/c he got lucky w/ the ping pong balls & then picked the default guy in 1 out of the 6 picks? Or a failing grade b/c he managed to get absolutely nothing for his team with the other 5 picks?

In my book, that GM gets a failing grade.

Oh, & you might want to add the several *awful* FAs he signed in that same period. & trades that brought the team nothing.

Equally, for you to claim that Satoransky was a good pick at #32 in 2012 seems way off. Before Sato ever got here, Jae Crowder produced for NBA teams for 4 years. So did Middleton. So did Green. & so did Will Barton, whom you fail to mention. If 4 of the 6 guys picked after you picked are all better players than the guy you picked, & if you have to add to that that they were actually available to help their teams the year they were picked, it's really not possible to defend your pick. Sorry.

Oh, & how about the lame FAs of that period?

That doesn't even get me to blowing R2 of 2013 & R2 of 2014. Or to trading a lottery pick for a guy no one else wanted who, no, is not producing on a regular basis (has some good games, mostly bad ones).

Not to mention the colossal disaster of the 2016 off-season, which basically screwed the team. Followed by having to throw away a R1 pick to hide one of those errors. & being stuck w/ an enormous salary that isn't anywhere near justified in the guy's play -- not to mention the overall salary problems it causes.

& against that you'd like to offer, as evidence of GM goodness, a veteran minimum player who is playing better than his salary would have you expect? & a journeyman backup point guard? Both of whom are on 1-year, rent-a-player deals? That's it? That's what you want to point to?

As to Meeks, no, he isn't playing up to what he's paid. Not this year. Not so far.

It'd be one thing if you directed attention to all this so-called goodness when the team was actually thriving. But, we're 13-11 as I write this.

[payitforward]

Serious question about 2015 draft. Who is better than Oubre outside KAT and Porzingis?...
2012 draft: Sato is better than every 1st round pick outside the top 10. Only Draymond and Middleton are better in the 2nd. Crowder too, but I think Id rather have Sato for the next 2 years... Thoughts?

Terry, Willie, Booker, Russell, Turner, Frank and probably Nance ahead of him as well. 15 was a pretty bad draft imo but Oubre is one of the better players from that crop.

'12 is another less than inspiring but serviceable draft. He's not better than everyone outside of the top 10 excluding the 3 better players you named. There's Lamb, Evan, Barton, Quinn, and a handful of other guys. Plus some of the guys who aren't even in the league anymore had some good showings Sato has to actually prove he can stay in the nba and actually be better than for example a 21 year old jared sullinger.

Huh, Booker and Turner sure... but Frank and Willie? Sorry, but no. Rozier and Nance are as good talent wise, but fit wise its hard to imagine either starting for a playoff team in the next 2-3 years.
Oubre is a starting caliber SF right now and will be a starting caliber player on a contender by next year... Only Booker and Turner fit that description.

Oubre is outstanding, & he was a terrific pick. The trade was worth it. I wouldn't have taken Nance over Oubre; I don't think anyone would have.

That said, sorry, as it turns out so far, Larry Nance Jr. is way way way better than Oubre. & he's gotten better every year. Long term I don't anticipate the gap staying as large, b/c Oubre came into the league so young, but so far there's no comparison between the players. Nance is damn near as good as Otto Porter -- & he's on a rookie salary!

[dcstanley]

Terry, Willie, Booker, Russell, Turner, Frank and probably Nance ahead of him as well. 15 was a pretty bad draft imo but Oubre is one of the better players from that crop.

'12 is another less than inspiring but serviceable draft. He's not better than everyone outside of the top 10 excluding the 3 better players you named. There's Lamb, Evan, Barton, Quinn, and a handful of other guys. Plus some of the guys who aren't even in the league anymore had some good showings Sato has to actually prove he can stay in the nba and actually be better than for example a 21 year old jared sullinger.

Huh, Booker and Turner sure... but Frank and Willie? Sorry, but no. Rozier and Nance are as good talent wise, but fit wise its hard to imagine either starting for a playoff team in the next 2-3 years.
Oubre is a starting caliber SF right now and will be a starting caliber player on a contender by next year... Only Booker and Turner fit that description.

What exactly has Oubre shown to separate himself from frank and willie? Both have had superior peak performance games despite being on some of the worst run teams in the nba and them logging less minutes than Oubre as well.

Terry plays top notch defense, can stretch the floor, run an offense and a couple teams including milwaukee tried to steal him away from Boston to make him their starting guard. Also not a knuckle head for whatever thats worth so I don't see any objective observer taking kelly over him.

Nance might not be the best fit as a starter on a championship team due to his lack of a 3 ball I'll concede that more of a bench hustle guy.

I'm just not seeing what you're looking at I wouldn't start Oubre on any of the contending teams (cle, gsw, hou, bos, sas) particularly in the next 2 years. I think he would be a solid 6th man for some of those teams, and I can see him starting for a lesser playoff teams though.

Frank is hardly a rotational player now and is largely considered a miss by Charlotte fans. I'm not too familiar with Willie's career so I'll refrain from commenting on his production. Terry and Nance are utility players, they're pretty limited aside from their specific roles. Oubre has proven this year to have a multi-faceted game.

[OzCastiel]

Huh, Booker and Turner sure... but Frank and Willie? Sorry, but no. Rozier and Nance are as good talent wise, but fit wise its hard to imagine either starting for a playoff team in the next 2-3 years.
Oubre is a starting caliber SF right now and will be a starting caliber player on a contender by next year... Only Booker and Turner fit that description.

What exactly has Oubre shown to separate himself from frank and willie? Both have had superior peak performance games despite being on some of the worst run teams in the nba and them logging less minutes than Oubre as well.

Terry plays top notch defense, can stretch the floor, run an offense and a couple teams including milwaukee tried to steal him away from Boston to make him their starting guard. Also not a knuckle head for whatever thats worth so I don't see any objective observer taking kelly over him.

Nance might not be the best fit as a starter on a championship team due to his lack of a 3 ball I'll concede that more of a bench hustle guy.

I'm just not seeing what you're looking at I wouldn't start Oubre on any of the contending teams (cle, gsw, hou, bos, sas) particularly in the next 2 years. I think he would be a solid 6th man for some of those teams, and I can see him starting for a lesser playoff teams though.

Frank is hardly a rotational player now and is largely considered a miss by Charlotte fans. I'm not too familiar with Willie's career so I'll refrain from commenting on his production. Terry and Nance are utility players, they're pretty limited aside from their specific roles. Oubre has proven this year to have a multi-faceted game.

If Oubre is a "proven multi-faceted" player and Terry is a "utility" guy I need to know who your dealer is my friend lol. So far no one has been able to give any distinctive examples on why Oubre is considered this other worldly player compared to his draft class

[Kanyewest]

If Oubre is a "proven multi-faceted" player and Terry is a "utility" guy I need to know who your dealer is my friend lol. So far no one has been able to give any distinctive examples on why Oubre is considered this other worldly player compared to his draft class

I think Rozier is solid. He's a very good rebounder. He's also raised his 3 point percentage to a respectable level. And he has a good assist to turnover ratio.

That being said, Oubre has a higher ceiling because of his size and length and being a full year younger than Rozier. He's also a more efficient scorer (TS% at 56.5 compared to Rozier who is only at 50.5%).

[closg00]

Resigning Webster was one of EG's least bad mistakes

The Wizards are paying Webster $830,000 this year and next, helping to push us into Lux Tax

[gtn130]

Resigning Webster was one of EG's least bad mistakes

The Wizards are paying Webster $830,000 this year and next, helping to push us into Lux Tax

Yeah, it's still one of EG's least damaging mistakes. There are probably like 20+ moves that are more damaging than signing Webster over the course of EG's tenure.

[OzCastiel]

If Oubre is a "proven multi-faceted" player and Terry is a "utility" guy I need to know who your dealer is my friend lol. So far no one has been able to give any distinctive examples on why Oubre is considered this other worldly player compared to his draft class

I think Rozier is solid. He's a very good rebounder. He's also raised his 3 point percentage to a respectable level. And he has a good assist to turnover ratio.

That being said, Oubre has a higher ceiling because of his size and length and being a full year younger than Rozier. He's also a more efficient scorer (TS% at 56.5 compared to Rozier who is only at 50.5%).

Size doesn't gift you a higher ceiling. Presently he's a slightly better scorer, and that's about it. Terry is a better overall player. I don't see any top teams in the league picking Oubre over Rozier.