Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

[payitforward]

Who would guys prefer at this stage? Isaiah Coller or Bub Carrington?

Carrington has been better than Collier overall. Slightly better scoring the ball. Slightly better overall at the other stuff too.

[Jay81]

Hi guys

[NatP4]

Hi guys

31-16-8 on 18 shots.

But did you know Bub Carrington is from Baltimore???

[Jay81]

Hi guys

31-16-8 on 18 shots.

But did you know Bub Carrington is from Baltimore???

Someone on jazz forum said bub is the most uninteresting prospect they’ve seen.
What a stupid trade.

[MOSH]

Wow, even I, coming from Deni's hometown, did not see this happening. I mean, in theory, sure, he could be an All-star, but man, he is playing like one. It was always mentally when it came to him. He used to lead all of his life. When he moved to Portland and said he would like to be the leader and I was like: "Sure.."
What a leap! I'm sorry for you guys missing out on Deni. He was always a hard worker, and I think people don't realize that most player don't put out the hard work, so it makes sense you'd think you can't improve at 24.
Some players only enter the league at 23...

[Despy]

For 2 firsts he can have fun in Portland for all I care

[Dark Faze]

He's not going to average 30 lol. But it's the kind of run that makes you think he should at minimum be able to finish the year averaging 20+.

The trade was HATED by the bulk of the fanbase for a reason.

[dckingsfan]

He's not going to average 30 lol. But it's the kind of run that makes you think he should at minimum be able to finish the year averaging 20+.

The trade was HATED by the bulk of the fanbase for a reason.

It is especially interesting given the horrid shooting start at the beginning of the season (shooting under .200 from 3 isn't a good look). He was putrid as he tried to fit in and the coaching staff tried to figure out how to use him.

Code: Select all

Age   MP     TS%    AST%    3P%    USG%   STL%   BLK%   DRB%   DRtg   WS/48   OBPM   DBPM   BPM   VORP
20   1257   0.515    6.3   0.315   12.0   1.2    1.0    20.2   113    0.046   -3.6    0.4   -3.1   -0.4
21   1984   0.536   11.8   0.317   16.3   1.5    1.9    20.5   113    0.058   -2.1    0.4   -1.7    0.1
22   2020   0.535   13.9   0.297   16.7   1.6    1.2    21.9   114    0.054   -2.8    0.5   -2.3   -0.1
23   2257   0.597   17.8   0.374   20.2   1.2    1.3    22.1   119    0.068   -0.7   -0.2   -0.9    0.6
24   1867   0.599   19.1   0.360   22.3   1.5    1.6    20.8   114    0.111    0.8    0.5    1.3    1.5

The next step for him is to simply tighten up his handles and passing. But, he seems to come back with something every off-season. Guessing he will make it happen. That would make him a solid #2/#3 option on a really good time (IMO). I mean 31 on 18 shots...

edit:

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[closg00]

Who would guys prefer at this stage? Isaiah Coller or Bub Carrington?

Carrington has been better than Collier overall. Slightly better scoring the ball. Slightly better overall at the other stuff too.

Not in the assists department, comparing PG to PG, Isiah has superior assist numbers despite the advantage Bub has in leading all rookies in minutes played.

IC 6.2 APG
Assists - 351
VS
CC 4.0 APG
Assists - 258

However, these two players are on two completely different career paths, Bub is a combo guard, while Isiah is a point guard, time will tell which player will be the better player at their perspective positions.

[TGW]

Wouldn’t be funny if Deni becomes better than the draft picks they ended up tanking for. That would be a very #SoWizards moment.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Worst draft in a generation? Says who?

I keep hearing this narrative about how bad last year’s draft was but, imo, that remains to be seen.

Is the #4 pick in this year’s draft going to turn out to be a better player than Castle? I have my doubts.

Jordan Hawkins went 14 in the 2023 draft and Bub went 14 in the 2024 draft. Hawkins is an outstanding shooter but Bub is a much better all around player.

Jared McCain went 16 in the 2024 draft. He’d likely be top ten in the 2023 draft.

George went 24 in the 2024 draft. There may be 3-4 players who went 9-24 in the 2023 draft who I would take over Kyshawn.

Says every scout I've heard quoted on its quality. Just about all of them referred to it as similarly graded to 2000, and 2013, and if they didn't specifically reference those classes, they consistently meant them (and probably '09) as an analogy. None of that means there aren't hidden diamonds in those drafts like Giannis, Gobert, or Steph etc, but it does mean that going in, the scouts looking at them viewed them as unusually weak in terms of perceived top end, high ceiling prospects, and depth of top end prospects.

That's what they mean. I feel like people are being deliberately obtuse about this, as if you don't know that the '22 class of rookie QB's was regarded as crap and the '24 was regarded as excelllent. Scouts do indeed make these judgments and while not always right, generally, these takes are right. I can go through an absolute litany of examples in multiple sports. Do they get hidden stars wrong? Yes, like all drafts do, do they sometimes overrate classes, yes, absolutely, are they generally right? Yes they are.

This is not some crazy idea. It's history and present. There is a reason it was fantastic that our football team bottomed out in the '23 season rather than the '21 season and anyone that follows the NFL draft knows exactly why. Same with bottoming out during '22-'23, rather than '23-'24 in the NBA.

I get the added nuance that scouts considered the draft to be pretty average in terms of typical guys selected in the 6-30 zone or outside lottery zone or whatever, but the reality is, any draft that has zero cream in scouts eyes, is going to inevitably push up lesser talents higher because those cream players (this draft supposedly having 1-3 and 4-5? or 4-6 depending upon whom you talk to)....since I lean in football analogies, this is how you have a Pickett getting drafted top 20ish at QB in a terrible QB draft in '22, when he'd nomally go in the mid 2nd. It's not as drastic in the '24 vs '25 class, but it definitely pushes up a Bub to 14, where he'd probably normally be going 19-25. A kyshawn probably normally 28-35, goes 24 etc.

1. There is no "normally."

2. Neither you nor I -- nor anyone else -- has either the experience or the natural ability to make these kinds off sweeping judgments.

3. Suppose for a moment that a particular draft turns out to be "thin" in the top, say, 6-9 guys that -- fact could have no bearing whatever on how a guy taken at 14 or 24 (or any other spot) is, nor on where he would have gone in a prior draft, nor on where he'd go in a subsequent draft nor how good he is. He might be terrific. He might be terrible.

4. There is simply no such thing -- not at all, not in any way -- as a "typical" #14 pick. TBH, the idea is kind of ridiculous.

Here are all the #15 picks from '11 on: Jimmy Butler, Maurice Harkless, Giannis Antetekounmpo, Adreian Payne, Kelly Oubre, Juancho Hernangomez, Justin Jackson, Troy Brown Jr., Sekou Doumbouya, Cole Anthony, Corey Kispert, Mark Williams, Kobe Bufkin, Kel’el Ware.

You see any commonality? 2023 was a better draft than 2024, most would say, but I'd a lot rather have Kel'el Ware than Kobe Bufkin!

2017 was a terrific draft, most would agree, but Justin Jackson sure wasn't terrific. For that matter, Markell Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith Jr., Zach Collins, Luke Kennard & Malik Monk, were all taken before Donovan Mitchell.

Over Bam Adebayo too.

& all those guys plus Justin Jackson, Justin Patton, DJ Wilson, TJ Leaf, Harry Giles & Terrance Ferguson were picked before Jarrett Allen & OG Anunoby.

Not to mention that all those guys plus another 8 guys were picked over Josh Hart.

Oh, & add another 12 guys before Isaiah Hartenstein was taken.

& that's in what we'd all agree was a "good" draft.

More or less the same pattern applies in every single draft. All of them.

Over time, do you think picks 4 through 13 have been a lot better than picks 14 through 23?

& when you discover that, no, they have not... will you start to change the way you think about the draft?

Nah, I didn't think so!

I was terribly wrong about Justin Patton. He looked so promising as a freshman at Creighton. He did zilch in the league.

[JRoy]

For 2 firsts he can have fun in Portland for all I care

Carrington was one of the FRP

[Despy]

For 2 firsts he can have fun in Portland for all I care

Carrington was one of the FRP

Ah yes the guy averaging 9.2 ppg vs Denis career of 10.9

Also two seconds!

[JRoy]

For 2 firsts he can have fun in Portland for all I care

Carrington was one of the FRP

Ah yes the guy averaging 9.2 ppg vs Denis career of 10.9

Also two seconds!

He will get better. Was he the right pick? Too soon to tell. WAS is in the running for the top pick of what looks to be an excellent draft. This might look different in a year.

[nate33]

Ignoring his first 11 games when he played terrible while adapting to his new environment, Deni has posted the following per 36 stats over the last 54 games:

20.2 points
8.5 rebounds
4.7 assists
6.3 FTA's
.382 3P%
.616 TS%

Here is the list of players this year who have played 1300+ minutes while posting per 36 averages of 20, 8 and 4 or better or a TS% of .600 or better:

Jokic
Giannis
Lebron
Sabonis (actually 19.9 points)
Deni

Let's give an honorable mention to Luka, Tatum and Cade who miss the TS% cutoff (Tatum is .588 and Luka is .570, Cade .559) but it's understandable due to their heavy scoring load (26.7, 28.1, 26.2 points per 36 respectively). Mobley (3.7 assists) and Siakam (7.7 rebounds) also barely miss the cut but should be mentioned.

Deni is in the company of mostly All-NBA tier guys.

A couple of other notable guys post the points, rebounds and assists to make the cut, but do so while being significantly less efficient than Deni with worse defense, so I don't think they are as impactful. They include: Miles Bridges (.551 TS%), Harden (.570 TS%), Barnes (.527 TS%), and LaMelo (.534 TS%). Deni is outplaying these guys while being paid about one-third their salaries.

But at least we have Bub Carrington and a mid-first-round pick in 2029.

[nate33]

Who would guys prefer at this stage? Isaiah Coller or Bub Carrington?

Collier is dead last in the league in BPM, second-to-last in TS% and dead last in TOV%. He also shoots just .244 from 3-point range and doesn't make up for it by getting to the line (just 2.7 FTA's per 36) or making his free throws (.670 FT%). He has a long, long way to go to improve his efficiency enough to be a serviceable NBA player.

He has played a little better of late, but still not very good with a disastrously high turnover rate and no real improvement in his 3-ball.

I'd take Bub.

[pcbothwel]

Wouldn’t be funny if Deni becomes better than the draft picks they ended up tanking for. That would be a very #SoWizards moment.

Dear god...what a nightmare.

The Deni trade was so unfortunate. Getting a top 3 pick in 2025, and a top 3-5 in 2026 is pertinent for us to do a proper rebuild.
The Deni situation was no-win.

1A) Deni continues to grow, as he has, and we win a little more this year and next, causing our pick to drop out of the top 3 this year and possibly all together next year if we are not in the top 8.
1B) Deni continues to grow, as he has, and we dont win more because we are a complete wreck everywhere else over the next two year. This Puts Deni on the same losing team for 6 years straights, with 3 straight years in the cellar.
2) Deni continues to grow, as he has, and we trade him at the last deadline or possibly this summer
3) Deni stagnates and plays more like the guy from Post trade deadline last year than Pre

To me, there a bunch of terrible outcomes here. Option 1B is the only way we keep Deni and secure picks, but man that is VERY RISKY.

The only way to rebuild properly would be to
1) Secure top 3 picks in 25 & 26
2) Deni becomes SO GOOD that we only need 1 other top 5 pick to add to Sarr, Bilal, and Deni.

I just dont see how 2 is/was a feasible option given just how bad this team has sunk.
So then that means that we would have had to move Deni in another move before the 2026 season and for more assets than we got in the PDX trade.

Again. My hope/plan last year was that we would move Kuz and start the year with Deni. Hopefully he showed moderate improvement and then dangled him at the deadline for a bigger haul than we got. I would have thought his productivity and contract, along with our ability to take on money would have netted us, at the very least, a better lotto ticket in 2029-31 in the form of an unprotected lotto ticket.
But here we are.

[nate33]

Wouldn’t be funny if Deni becomes better than the draft picks they ended up tanking for. That would be a very #SoWizards moment.

Dear god...what a nightmare.

The Deni trade was so unfortunate. Getting a top 3 pick in 2025, and a top 3-5 in 2026 is pertinent for us to do a proper rebuild.
The Deni situation was no-win.

1A) Deni continues to grow, as he has, and we win a little more this year and next, causing our pick to drop out of the top 3 this year and possibly all together next year if we are not in the top 8.
1B) Deni continues to grow, as he has, and we dont win more because we are a complete wreck everywhere else over the next two year. This Puts Deni on the same losing team for 6 years straights, with 3 straight years in the cellar.
2) Deni continues to grow, as he has, and we trade him at the last deadline or possibly this summer
3) Deni stagnates and plays more like the guy from Post trade deadline last year than Pre

To me, there a bunch of terrible outcomes here. Option 1B is the only way we keep Deni and secure picks, but man that is VERY RISKY.

The only way to rebuild properly would be to
1) Secure top 3 picks in 25 & 26
2) Deni becomes SO GOOD that we only need 1 other top 5 pick to add to Sarr, Bilal, and Deni.

I just dont see how 2 is/was a feasible option given just how bad this team has sunk.
So then that means that we would have had to move Deni in another move before the 2026 season and for more assets than we got in the PDX trade.

Again. My hope/plan last year was that we would move Kuz and start the year with Deni. Hopefully he showed moderate improvement and then dangled him at the deadline for a bigger haul than we got. I would have thought his productivity and contract, along with our ability to take on money would have netted us, at the very least, a better lotto ticket in 2029-31 in the form of an unprotected lotto ticket.
But here we are.

I understand this line of thinking, this is basically what Doc has been advocating, but I reject it. I just don't think you improve your roster by giving away a 23-year-old who projects as a potential All-Star, or at least a borderline All-Star.

It would be one thing of Deni was 27 and would be potentially in decline by the time the team is capable of contending, but that doesn't apply here. Deni has 7-10 more good years ahead of him, barring a major injury.

Ultimately, I think we could have tanked this year with Deni on the roster - probably staying in the bottom 3 and having no affect on our odds, or at worst, falling to 4th behind New Orleans, which only has a very small affect on our lottery odds. Next year, with Deni and a top 4 2025 draft pick on the roster, I still think it would have been fairly likely that we stay in the bottom 8 and keep our pick. The 8th worst team right now has 29 wins and projects to finish with 34 wins. I don't see us jumping another 15 wins next year even with Deni and Flagg. And if necessary, there are ways to tank just by screwing with the lineups.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Wouldn’t be funny if Deni becomes better than the draft picks they ended up tanking for. That would be a very #SoWizards moment.

Dear god...what a nightmare.

The Deni trade was so unfortunate. Getting a top 3 pick in 2025, and a top 3-5 in 2026 is pertinent for us to do a proper rebuild.
The Deni situation was no-win.

1A) Deni continues to grow, as he has, and we win a little more this year and next, causing our pick to drop out of the top 3 this year and possibly all together next year if we are not in the top 8.
1B) Deni continues to grow, as he has, and we dont win more because we are a complete wreck everywhere else over the next two year. This Puts Deni on the same losing team for 6 years straights, with 3 straight years in the cellar.
2) Deni continues to grow, as he has, and we trade him at the last deadline or possibly this summer
3) Deni stagnates and plays more like the guy from Post trade deadline last year than Pre

To me, there a bunch of terrible outcomes here. Option 1B is the only way we keep Deni and secure picks, but man that is VERY RISKY.

The only way to rebuild properly would be to
1) Secure top 3 picks in 25 & 26
2) Deni becomes SO GOOD that we only need 1 other top 5 pick to add to Sarr, Bilal, and Deni.

I just dont see how 2 is/was a feasible option given just how bad this team has sunk.
So then that means that we would have had to move Deni in another move before the 2026 season and for more assets than we got in the PDX trade.

Again. My hope/plan last year was that we would move Kuz and start the year with Deni. Hopefully he showed moderate improvement and then dangled him at the deadline for a bigger haul than we got. I would have thought his productivity and contract, along with our ability to take on money would have netted us, at the very least, a better lotto ticket in 2029-31 in the form of an unprotected lotto ticket.
But here we are.

I understand this line of thinking, this is basically what Doc has been advocating, but I reject it. I just don't think you improve your roster by giving away 23-year-olds who project as potential All-Stars, or at least borderline All-Stars.

It would be one thing of Deni was 27 and would be potentially in decline by the time the team is capable of contending, but that doesn't apply hear. Deni has 7-10 more good years ahead of him, barring a major injury.

Ultimately, I think we could have tanked this year with Deni on the roster - probably staying in the bottom 3 and having no affect on our odds, or at worst, falling to 4th behind New Orleans, which only has a very small affect on our lottery odds. Next year, with Deni and a top 4 2025 draft pick on the roster, I still think it would have been fairly likely that we stay in the bottom 8 and keep our pick. The 8th worst team right now has 29 wins and projects to finish with 34 wins. I don't see us jumping another 15 wins next year even with Deni and Flagg. And if necessary, there are ways to tank just by screwing with the lineups.

This is post is everything. It encapsulates concisely every point I've been barking at the moon for for the past 9 months. The line, I just don't think you improve your roster by giving away 23-year-olds who project as potential All-Stars, or at least borderline All-Stars. is spot on.

Feels like at lot of posters were penalizing Deni for not developing quick enough in their book, so no matter that he showed huge improvement over the last 50 or so game last season, he was seen as not living up to potential even though we saw that potential right in front of our eyes as a versatile, two-way player that was still young even if it took him longer to get to where he needed to be then you see with other guys that are top players.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Ignoring his first 11 games when he played terrible while adapting to his new environment, Deni has posted the following per 36 stats over the last 54 games:

20.2 points
8.5 rebounds
4.7 assists
6.3 FTA's
.382 3P%
.616 TS%

Here is the list of players this year who have played 1300+ minutes while posting per 36 averages of 20, 8 and 4 or better or a TS% of .600 or better:

Jokic
Giannis
Lebron
Sabonis (actually 19.9 points)
Deni

Let's give an honorable mention to Luka, Tatum and Cade who miss the TS% cutoff (Tatum is .588 and Luka is .570, Cade .559) but it's understandable due to their heavy scoring load (26.7, 28.1, 26.2 points per 36 respectively). Mobley (3.7 assists) and Siakam (7.7 rebounds) also barely miss the cut but should be mentioned.

Deni is in the company of mostly All-NBA tier guys.

A couple of other notable guys miss the cut, but do so by being significantly less efficient than Deni with worse defense, so I don't think they are as impactful. They include: Miles Bridges (.551 TS%), Harden (.570 TS%), Barnes (.527 TS%), and LaMelo (.534 TS%). Deni is outplaying these guys while being paid about one-third their salaries.

But at least we have Bub Carrington and a mid-first-round pick in 2029.

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