2012 NBA Draft

[fishercob]

If Sully really does develop that mid range game -- to the point where he's absolutely money from 15-18 feet (and maybe even a credible threat from 3) -- he would be simply devastating as a pick and pop guy with Wall. He's so wide that he could erase opposing PG's. If his man goes under the screen he'll have to leave a ton of room (so that he can still cut off Wall) and leave Sully a ton of space to shoot.

Again, not my first choice but if he continues to get better -- and indications are that he has the makeup to do so -- he'd absolutely help the Wizards.

I think Sullinger already has a nice midrange game that you don't get to see because of what he is asked to do. Sullinger has a very nice stroke. Check out the 16 second mark in the video below.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0irCjWHUfI&feature=related[/youtube]
I do think however that Sullinger will struggle getting his shot off against NBA defenses in the post. To some degree, Jared will be forced outside.

Boom, I was just talking about his face-up jumper. If he develops a reliable baseline fadeaway, that puts him up yet another notch. If defenders need to worry about that, he'll have a much eaiser time getting shots off inside via pump fakes/up and unders, etc. It will be interesting to see how he measures out.

[no D in Hibachi]

Sully just screams "Sheldon Williams-type bench fodder" to me. Running him through the eye-ball measurements he's 6'8" at best w/shoes, short arms, a little pudgy, by no means explosive, and doesnt have quick first step. Sully's clearly more polished offensively than Williams, but Williams was a far better collegiate defender, which, keep in mind, hasn't translated well to the pro's.

If the one and doner's are eligible for the 2012 draft I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Sully outside the top ten. Davis, Drummond, Barnes, Miller, Beal, Jones III, Gilchrist, and Lamb are all guys I'd rather have. Also, if Booker shows he's improved his jumper this season (if there is one), I'd bypass Sully all together.

[fishercob]

Sully just screams "Sheldon Williams-type bench fodder" to me. Running him through the eye-ball measurements he's 6'8" at best w/shoes, short arms, a little pudgy, by no means explosive, and doesnt have quick first step. Sully's clearly more polished offensively than Williams, but Williams was a far better collegiate defender, which, keep in mind, hasn't translated well to the pro's.

If the one and doner's are eligible for the 2012 draft I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Sully outside the top ten. Davis, Drummond, Barnes, Miller, Beal, Jones III, Gilchrist, and Lamb are all guys I'd rather have. Also, if Booker shows he's improved his jumper this season (if there is one), I'd bypass Sully all together.

Shelden Williams is certainly a cautionary tale; then again, the entire world knew he was taken too high when the Hawks took him 5th.

A comparison of Williams' and Sullinger's freshmen years shows Sullinger to be the much better offensive player (and you don't need to look at the stats to know that). Sullinger posted a TS of 59% and a PER of 30.4 with a 22% usage rate. Shelden posted a PER of 20.6, 55% TS, while using just 11% of Duke's possessions.

A main reason for Williams' failure in the NBA is he had the offensive game of a bad center -- and no jumper to speak of. Sullinger already seems to have the jumper Williams couldn't develop over nine seasons at Duke and in the NBA. And that;s now. I assume Sullinger will continue to improve.

Again, the measurements will be key and I'm by no means taking the position that he should go ahead of the guys you mention. I'm just saying I think he'd help the Wizards. If we are lucky enough to land Barnes or Beal, I'd be interested in a trade that netted Sullinger (perhaps including Blatche and/or Vesely) And as much as I like Booker, I'm not banking on him developing a reliable jumper.

[dangermouse]

I dont put much stock into Booker becoming more than a bench guy. Hes a hustle tweener. Unfortunately we just drafted another hustle tweener or two (I think Singleton can be more than that). Seraphin is also a bit of a hustle tweener (PF/C), but I think he can become useful in time as a backup at both spots.

We need to hit a home run in this coming draft, and I think we should be able to do it provided the eligibility rule doesnt change.

[closg00]

I dont put much stock into Booker becoming more than a bench guy. Hes a hustle tweener. Unfortunately we just drafted another hustle tweener or two (I think Singleton can be more than that). Seraphin is also a bit of a hustle tweener (PF/C), but I think he can become useful in time as a backup at both spots.

We need to hit a home run in this coming draft, and I think we should be able to do it provided the eligibility rule doesnt change.

Copy that

[Dat2U]

Shelden Williams is certainly a cautionary tale; then again, the entire world knew he was taken too high when the Hawks took him 5th.

A comparison of Williams' and Sullinger's freshmen years shows Sullinger to be the much better offensive player (and you don't need to look at the stats to know that). Sullinger posted a TS of 59% and a PER of 30.4 with a 22% usage rate. Shelden posted a PER of 20.6, 55% TS, while using just 11% of Duke's possessions.

A main reason for Williams' failure in the NBA is he had the offensive game of a bad center -- and no jumper to speak of. Sullinger already seems to have the jumper Williams couldn't develop over nine seasons at Duke and in the NBA. And that;s now. I assume Sullinger will continue to improve.

Again, the measurements will be key and I'm by no means taking the position that he should go ahead of the guys you mention. I'm just saying I think he'd help the Wizards. If we are lucky enough to land Barnes or Beal, I'd be interested in a trade that netted Sullinger (perhaps including Blatche and/or Vesely) And as much as I like Booker, I'm not banking on him developing a reliable jumper.

I remember Williams as a limited but effective & physical player at Duke. I watched time & time again as Williams would get his shot blocked in the post against the Maryland's & FSU's of the world with no real face up game to speak of. It should have been obvious to anyone that a 6-8/6-9 ish big with limited athleticism, a rudimentary back-to-the-basket player and a low skill level wasn't going to amount to much as an NBA player. That should have been confirmed when his standing reach was measured in a 8'8'' which is far below average for a NBA PF.

Sullinger will definitely be a more effective NBA player IMO although I'm not a his biggest fan. Still he's got much better hands. He's got more skill, more finesse. Makes better decisions. Sullinger may not have shown a developed face up game but he's got the makings of one and he shows the touch to expand his range. Sully will have problems finishing in the post however and there are going to be major questions about his ability to defend in the post and on the perimeter against stretch 4s. His standing reach may tell a lot as well. Anything 8'11'' or better and he's a starting quality PF. 8'10'' and under and I'm wondering if he might only be a role player.

[Ruzious]

The problem with Sheldon Williams was obvious when he was a freshman - his legs were very stiff and that caused him to be a less than fluid athlete. But he did become a dominant player at Duke, because he could overpower pretty much everyone, and he developed a nice set of power moves that worked effectively in college.

As to whether or not Davis will be the first pick, it's too early to tell. Anyone can see that Davis is a tremendous talent, and he's added quite of strength to his body in the offseason - and really, the only question about him before was his strength - as he weighed in at about 20 lbs lighter than his SF teammate - Gilchrist (who's underrated, btw) - in the Lebron camp. But Drummond still has the higher upside. If he comes close to that upside, Drummond is the 1st pick in the draft.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I remember there was a ton of Shelden Williams love in this forum prior to the draft. I liked The Landlord but said he was not as good as Millsap. Another guy folks liked at the same time was FSU's Alexander Johnson. I felt that Millsap was definitely superior to either guy, based on his dominance in rebounds and points, along with his blocks and steals, which showed the guy had a game at both ends of the court.

(Kenneth Faried's across-the-board numbers make me think he's going to be better than Millsap or Blair.)

Shelden Williams had no business going #5 overall. That was a Duke/NCAA media hype effect, I guess.

[fishercob]

I remember there was a ton of Shelden Williams love in this forum prior to the draft. I liked The Landlord but said he was not as good as Millsap. Another guy folks liked at the same time was FSU's Alexander Johnson. I felt that Millsap was definitely superior to either guy, based on his dominance rebounds and points, along with his blocks and steals, which showed the guy had a game at both ends of the court.

(Kenneth Faried's across-the-board numbers make me think he's going to be better than Millsap or Blair.)

Shelden Williams had no business going #5 overall. That was a Duke/NCAA media hype effect, I guess.

CCJ, what's your take on Sullinger? Where's my man Sev with his scouting report too?

Ah, Alexander Johnson. I remember a Wiz-Griz game when he had something like a 14 point first quarter just abusing Jamison in the post, I think when Johnson was just a rookie. Yep here it is, Johnson's career high: http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 60WAS.html

Good times.

[go'stags]

I gotta agree with Dat. Davis is the number 1 pick whenever he comes out. His ceiling is just as high, if not higher, than does Drummond.

[dangermouse]

Are people souring on Drummond because of a bad start? I still think hes the numero uno. Remember how raw Dwight Howard was at first? I remember people thought Okafor was the better choice, and to start off with it looked like he was...

[7-Day Dray]

Not very high on Sullinger. Even though he measured 6'10" at a summer combine, he still looks undersized, and really struggles to get his shot off against other big men. And he projects to be a very poor defender at the next level.

That being said, I actually think he will be a better offensive big in the NBA than he is right now in college. The floor spacing is much better in the NBA, and he’ll have more space to operate in the post, and he’ll be able to face-up. His face-up game is underrated. I watched a lot of his HS games, and he could take people off the bounce and hit jumpers. I think he’ll show that ability in the NBA, as that’s much more of a pro skill than a college skill.

[Ruzious]

Not very high on Sullinger. Even though he measured 6'10" at a summer combine, he still looks undersized, and really struggles to get his shot off against other big men. And he projects to be a very poor defender at the next level.

That being said, I actually think he will be a better offensive big in the NBA than he is right now in college. The floor spacing is much better in the NBA, and he’ll have more space to operate in the post, and he’ll be able to face-up. His face-up game is underrated. I watched a lot of his HS games, and he could take people off the bounce and hit jumpers. I think he’ll show that ability in the NBA, as that’s much more of a pro skill than a college skill.

Yup, while he'll have trouble matching up defensively, Sullinger is going to score in bunches in the NBA. He's a real student of the game, works hard at it, has tremendous self confidence, and has flashed a variety of scoring skills. Expect a 20/10 player.

He measured in at 6'10? That doesn't smell right.

[mhd]

Honestly, you can't go wrong with either Drummond or Davis.

[Ruzious]

Honestly, you can't go wrong with either Drummond or Davis.

Top 2 pick or bust.

Soon, the most important issue for Wiz fans is how they're going to determine the draft order.

[fishercob]

Andy Katz with a dagger tweet:

ESPNAndyKatz:
Just interviewed former Kentucky and NBA great Dan Issel on ESPN3 and he said he doesn't think there will be an NBA season.

ESPNAndyKatz:
Issel said lockout isn't close to '98-99 situation when he wasGM. Said sides aren't even close. Said owners determined to change the system.
3 hours ago

ESPNAndyKatz:
Issel said he is confident, though, when settled that age limit will go up to two years out of high school.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, what's your take on Sullinger? Where's my man Sev with his scouting report too?

Ah, Alexander Johnson. I remember a Wiz-Griz game when he had something like a 14 point first quarter just abusing Jamison in the post, I think when Johnson was just a rookie. Yep here it is, Johnson's career high: http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 60WAS.html

Good times.

fish, IMO Sullinger has great leadership skills. I like a lot about him. Seems like a great guy but his overall lack of athleticism might limit what he can do in the NBA.

Now, the long version of what I just said ...

He is articulate. He puts team first. Sullinger has improved what he lacks physically each season. He is very aware of the need to improve his physique and Jared has slimmed down each season. I really like that he takes his time. Instead of coming out of college and cashing in as a lottery pick (hey, but there's a lockout--he might not have cashed in at all!) Sullinger came back better physically. I like that he chose to stay at Columbus, 10 minutes away from his where he grew up with his mom and dad. Saw on one video that his two older brothers (one played at Ohio St.) influence him, too. From all I've seen, Sullinger is destined to be a successful guy. He already talks like a coach at 20 years old.

There are some things about him that he cannot control. I see him as limited athletically, particularly on the defensive end. Sullinger isn't freakishly strong relative to NCAA competitors. He's not as muscular or athletic as a similar-height, Carlos Boozer. I see DX' comparison to Lonny Baxter as pretty close. Sullinger reminds me of Ryan Gomes. The problem is that he's short to post NBA guys with great success, and he's not athletic to cover taller bigs. I don't like that Sullinger doesn't block a lot of shots or make a lot of steals--he's not great moving laterally.

Overall, however, Sullinger is a terrific shooter. He is a hustle and position rebounder. I see him as the anti-Mike Sweetney or the anti-Lonny Baxter, fishercob. Sullinger will succeed because he's disciplined and driven, and he won't do dumb things off the court. He's a better Derrick Caracter. Sullinger will be a good backup PF in the NBA IMO. He's going to score efficientely because you can't leave him open, and he will score on most PFs pretty easily. He will pass to the open man.

I would be happy with Sullinger after about the top 6 in this draft, but I think he's going to have limited success in the NBA. If he gets on the right team where he can just score, like a Mark Aguirre back in the day, that will give him his best shot at success. He's going to need a lot of great defenders around him.

[no D in Hibachi]

Andy Katz with a dagger tweet:

ESPNAndyKatz:
Just interviewed former Kentucky and NBA great Dan Issel on ESPN3 and he said he doesn't think there will be an NBA season.

ESPNAndyKatz:
Issel said lockout isn't close to '98-99 situation when he wasGM. Said sides aren't even close. Said owners determined to change the system.
3 hours ago

ESPNAndyKatz:
Issel said he is confident, though, when settled that age limit will go up to two years out of high school.

This is my worst fear and if the rule is really changed to two years then this upcoming draft might be worse than last years. So far the top two+ year prospects are Barnes, Lamb, Jones III, Sully, Ross, Henson & Terrance Jones. The late lottery talent really dries up quick. Are there any Foreign born players with any promise this year?

Barnes is the best of the lot, but I consider him to a borderline all-star talent. Taller catch and shoot version of Caron Butler? So not only no high-end talent--no depth.

The consolation is the Wiz will be guaranteed to pick no worse than 5th if they use the last 3 years record without adjustments for winning past lotto's.

[Ruzious]

One thing to consider - even if they do up the age limit for draft eligibility - it might not be for the 2012 draft. My guess is that they would wait a year - so as not to provoke lawsuits from this year's outstanding college frosh who've already assumed they would be in the NBA next year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If there is no season I am confident that the NBA will not be the same, ever again.

Once the lawsuits start there will be losses both sides do not anticipate coming. Lawyers will drive a wedge between the two that will leave the players hurting financially, for sure; and the control over NBA players that Stern and owners have enjoyed will be freed up.

I don't see status quo ever returning if the entire season is cancelled. Players who are angry now will really be angry later. (Mostly black) NBA players are not going back to work the same way NHL players did.

I really think a protracted lockout will result in landmark lawsuits that will financially tax not just the players, but the NBA itself; as players will seek treble damages all the way to the Supreme Court.

My opinion (and it really is WHO KNOWS, overall) is that there will be a season. Stern and the owners want the players to miss the December 1st checks, and probably the December 15th checks, too. I THINK (but I'm really not sure at all) the owners want a season. The players definitely want to play and they don't want to miss a season's worth of salary.

I still think there's going to be a season, but who knows ...