Summer 2012 Free Agents Thread - Part II

[Rafael122]

Question is why in the world would OKC not keep Harden at this point???

Harden in a Wizards uni is about as unrealistic as Deron Williams or Dwight Howard in one.

Ibaka is just as important as Harden is. I still stand by my thinking that they will keep 1 but not both.

Edit: Ibaka becomes even more important if Perk continues to break down physically. I think Harden is the one that bolts.

I think the answer is - if they need to stay out of lux tax territory, trade Westbrook. He's needed less than the other 3. Harden is the guy who penetrates at will when they need someone to do that - not Westbrook or Durant. They really don't need a multi-talented player at the point. Btw, what's up with Maynor?

I don't see them trading Westbrook after giving him that fat contract, though I would have traded him for Rondo. In a heartbeat.

[verbal8]

Btw, what's up with Maynor?

Yahoo has him listed as out for the season(since Jan) with a knee injury.

[verbal8]

What about a Nick Collison type of contract for Batum? Offer him a contract that pays $12M and $12.5M over the next two years respectively, but then drops down to $8M a year or so in the following two years? The idea is to spend money that we're not going to use anyway, but then get his contract under control by the time it's time to resign Wall and Seraphin.

Would a 4-year, $40M contract frontloaded like that be enough to scare Portland away?

I think the Collison signing bonus was allowed because the Thunder had cap space and it was an extension.

For extensions, the signing bonus can be paid no sooner than July 1 of the year the extension takes effect, and the signing bonus is allocated to team salary over the years of the extension (per the same formula as described above for contracts). However, if the team is under the salary cap when the extension is signed, then the signing bonus may be paid before the extension takes effect. If this happens, then the extension is deemed to be a renegotiation (see question number 59) and the signing bonus is charged to team salary over both the extension and the remaining seasons of the current contract. Under these circumstances the amount of the signing bonus is limited -- the portion of the signing bonus charged to the season in which the extension is signed must fit within the team's cap room. Except in this special case of a renegotiation in conjunction with an extension, a renegotiation cannot contain a signing bonus.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

Reading earlier in the section on signing bonuses(73), it looks like they are generally limited to 15% of the contract and spread through the length of the deal.

The Collison approach may be an option with Seraphin or Booker. I think 2014/15 is the last year the team will have much cap room, and Wall should be a max/near-max player.

[Ruzious]

Ibaka is just as important as Harden is. I still stand by my thinking that they will keep 1 but not both.

Edit: Ibaka becomes even more important if Perk continues to break down physically. I think Harden is the one that bolts.

I think the answer is - if they need to stay out of lux tax territory, trade Westbrook. He's needed less than the other 3. Harden is the guy who penetrates at will when they need someone to do that - not Westbrook or Durant. They really don't need a multi-talented player at the point. Btw, what's up with Maynor?

I don't see them trading Westbrook after giving him that fat contract, though I would have traded him for Rondo. In a heartbeat.

Ya mean like Denver wouldn't trade Nene after signing him to that fat contract?

[Ruzious]

Btw, what's up with Maynor?

Yahoo has him listed as out for the season(since Jan) with a knee injury.

But if his prognosis is good, they might have someone who can start at the point for them if they trade Westbrook.

[jivelikenice]

I know there's a lot of talk of talk on this board about saving our cap space for a run at Harden. I don't like the plan as I think we're putting too many eggs in one basket and there's no way we have more than a 1 in 10 chance at signing him. Forget about the odds though, is he really a franchise guy or a potential #1 option? I just don't see it. This role that people think he's stuck in my very well be his ideal role on a team. This series versus the Lakers is really highlighting his shortcomings. Offensively his shot has been sporadic. When he does drive he does have the size or length to finish and is getting blocked a lot. Defensively he's been even worse. The Lakers are going at him and passing it to whoever he's guarding. Kobe shoots over him and Artest is just bullying him around. Kobe's a tough matchup and but Metta isn't. That being said, if we signed him he'll be matched up versus the elite wings on a nightly basis in a starting role. Would be be efficient and someone who can get a shot when he wants it? He might be able to at times but I just don't see it at an elite level. He's also going to struggle versus the other big wings out there. He may be a great 6th man which isn't a bad thing, but not something to hold out for in unlikely scenario that he signs here....Just my 2 cents....

[7-Day Dray]

^^I don't think Harden is worth the max, but he's probably the best player we can sign that will be available in the next two years. If we don't get Davis in the draft, how else are we going to acquire that other star? I think he would be worth offering the max for this team.

Personally, I'd rather have Eric Gordon, but I doubt NO lets him go.

[jivelikenice]

Eric Gordon will be a tough get but I think he's more likely than Harden. Harden will have the interest of any team w/ cap space. Plus he's a west coast guy and if the LAC or LAL have cap space in '13 they will be the clear front-runners. I just don't see him as being a star and don't think we can sacrifice an offseason on the low likelihood we get a player who may not be capable of being the alpha male. The only way we can take this approach is if we get Davis because that would take pressure of the FO to do something. Although on the flip side if you have Davis/ Wall/ Nene, you'd be very attractive to Eric Gordon or Batum.

Looking at the Spurs and Pacers, I'm not as worried about stars as much as just getting as many quality players as possible. The new cap is having an effect on and these teams w/ stars are going to be left with no benches. MKG or Beal may not be stars but they project to be very goold players. The goal should be to build a team that can consistently go 10 deep. w/ minimal drop-off.

Wall
Crawford
Booker
Seraphin
Nene
Vesely
James Singleton

We're a solid 7 deep. The pick and a FA would get us to 9. At that point we just need some development from a C. Singleton or a Mack. If Cartier Martin can consistently contribute he could also fill out the rotation.

[theboomking]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgoOS1FGcmw[/youtube]
Worth a max contract. We need to make the offer.

[hegotgame132]

That video is fantastic, the similarities are amazing

[fishercob]

Eric Gordon will be a tough get but I think he's more likely than Harden. Harden will have the interest of any team w/ cap space. Plus he's a west coast guy and if the LAC or LAL have cap space in '13 they will be the clear front-runners. I just don't see him as being a star and don't think we can sacrifice an offseason on the low likelihood we get a player who may not be capable of being the alpha male. The only way we can take this approach is if we get Davis because that would take pressure of the FO to do something. Although on the flip side if you have Davis/ Wall/ Nene, you'd be very attractive to Eric Gordon or Batum.

Looking at the Spurs and Pacers, I'm not as worried about stars as much as just getting as many quality players as possible. The new cap is having an effect on and these teams w/ stars are going to be left with no benches. MKG or Beal may not be stars but they project to be very goold players. The goal should be to build a team that can consistently go 10 deep. w/ minimal drop-off.

Wall
Crawford
Booker
Seraphin
Nene
Vesely
James Singleton

We're a solid 7 deep. The pick and a FA would get us to 9. At that point we just need some development from a C. Singleton or a Mack. If Cartier Martin can consistently contribute he could also fill out the rotation.

out of curiosity, how could looking athe spurs make you not worry about getting stars? They have two, maybe three hall of famers including one of the single greatest players to ever walk the earth.

[verbal8]

Edit: Ibaka becomes even more important if Perk continues to break down physically. I think Harden is the one that bolts.

I think the answer is - if they need to stay out of lux tax territory, trade Westbrook. He's needed less than the other 3. Harden is the guy who penetrates at will when they need someone to do that - not Westbrook or Durant. They really don't need a multi-talented player at the point. Btw, what's up with Maynor?

OKC has a couple of options to avoid or at least cut their luxury tax hit. FIrst they can amnesty or trade Perkins. It would leave them a little thin in the front court, but they may be able to platoon a couple cheap vets to replace him.

Also if they get "home town" discounts they can play with the contract structure a bit(e.g. max declining deals for Ibaka and Harden may let them drop out of the luxury tax at the end of the deals).

I agree that Westbrook is the most replaceable of the 4 "max players". Downgrading bit at PG for someone like Rondo or Harris or Jamir Nelson, should yield an additional incentive and significant savings.

My best guess is that OKC extends both Ibaka and Harden and pays the price if they make the Finals or makes a deal if they don't. It puts them in luxury cap land, but they have some time before the penalty gets ridiculous.

[Nivek]

With the new CBA, getting stars is still the best way of building a winner. The reason: the maximum salary rules artificially deflate salaries for truly elite performers. If you don't have to pay top producers what they're actually worth, you can pay more for the supporting cast.

I've posted about this before, but if the owners truly wanted competitive balance they'd have done away with maximum salaries. Impose a hard cap at the luxury tax line and let teams pay as much as they want for players. You'll never be able to stop a player from taking less than the best offer, but the decision would be a lot tougher.

Lebron, Wade and Bosh, for example, each "sacrificed" about $2.5 million per season in salary to go to Miami. About $15 million total over 6 years. (In Wade's case, it was actually more like $17 million total, so in his case it was about $2.8 million per season.) They're all likely to make that money back in marketing deals and off-court stuff -- especially if they win a title (or more). But, what if Cleveland was offering $25 million? Would Lebron "sacrifice" $11 million per season -- $66 million total? I doubt it.

Once superstars are getting paid HUGE deals, other ways to build teams emerge. Do try to do a "big 3" and pay Lebron, Wade and Bosh $65 million of your $71 million cap, knowing that your team will lack depth and that it'll be tough to attract good role players? Or, do you build a deeper roster with good players at every position with the same money? Or, do you split the difference with one star and then try to have a deep team with good players at the other spots?

[fishercob]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Green stay in San Antonio.

They're at $48M w/o Duncan and Green. Stephen Jackson is on the books for $10M next year, then comes off.

It's really in Duncan's hands. He can sign for little enough to allow them to fit Green in to a market (or close) contract and stay under the tax threshold. Then with SJax gone next year, there's a ton more room. Hell. Duncan, can baiscally decide on his number and make sure that both Green and Diaw return. I'd guess that's exactly what he'll do.

[Ruzious]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Green stay in San Antonio.

They're at $48M w/o Duncan and Green. Stephen Jackson is on the books for $10M next year, then comes off.

It's really in Duncan's hands. He can sign for little enough to allow them to fit Green in to a market (or close) contract and stay under the tax threshold. Then with SJax gone next year, there's a ton more room. Hell. Duncan, can baiscally decide on his number and make sure that both Green and Diaw return. I'd guess that's exactly what he'll do.

Agreed. I think we have a much better chance of getting Rush than Green.

[nate33]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Green stay in San Antonio.

They're at $48M w/o Duncan and Green. Stephen Jackson is on the books for $10M next year, then comes off.

It's really in Duncan's hands. He can sign for little enough to allow them to fit Green in to a market (or close) contract and stay under the tax threshold. Then with SJax gone next year, there's a ton more room. Hell. Duncan, can baiscally decide on his number and make sure that both Green and Diaw return. I'd guess that's exactly what he'll do.

I disagree.

If even if Duncan gives a home town discount and signs for say, 15M a year, I still think they'll be hard pressed to retain Green is somebody else offers Green a long term deal. San Antonio has been very good at avoiding overpaying role players on long term contracts. My guess is that San Antonio believes that they can pretty much plug in anybody to replace Green without missing a beat. I just don't think they'll be inclined to match a 4-year $20M deal for Green.

[fishercob]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Green stay in San Antonio.

They're at $48M w/o Duncan and Green. Stephen Jackson is on the books for $10M next year, then comes off.

It's really in Duncan's hands. He can sign for little enough to allow them to fit Green in to a market (or close) contract and stay under the tax threshold. Then with SJax gone next year, there's a ton more room. Hell. Duncan, can baiscally decide on his number and make sure that both Green and Diaw return. I'd guess that's exactly what he'll do.

I disagree.

If even if Duncan gives a home town discount and signs for say, 15M a year, I still think they'll be hard pressed to retain Green is somebody else offers Green a long term deal. San Antonio has been very good at avoiding overpaying role players on long term contracts. My guess is that San Antonio believes that they can pretty much plug in anybody to replace Green without missing a beat. I just don't think they'll be inclined to match a 4-year $20M deal for Green.

Unless they think that Green is really good. If they do, they'd probably may him his market value or very close. If they have an eye on a second round pick or a d-leaguer who they can replaces for 20% the cost of Green, then sure, they'll let him walk. I think you have to consider the fact that they are legit contenders for the immediate short term.

[rl25g]

would love to give a two year deal to a Veteran point guard that can shoot, defend, and if need be slide over to play the 2 with Wall.

My order of preference is

Kidd
Hinrich
Billups

If we pursue, hard to imagine we couldn't snag one of these guys who IMO would give a very positive impact on Wall and the team.

[Dat2U]

Just a thought. Would you guys do a S&T for Hibbert? Likely involving Nene? I would assume Indy would be willing to re-sign him but I haven't read anything indicating its a sure thing or just a formality. Also I know Nene was a guy that Indy pushed hard for last year before settling on David West.

[VictorPage44]

I'd be very happy to have Hibbert. He'd be an upgrade over Nene. I'd definitely part with some other young guys (Crawford/Singleton/Vesely/Seraphin) too for Hibbert. Though if Hibbert's on the market, they'll get a better offer then that.

OJ Mayo has probably already been discussed, but for what its worth, I think he'd be a solid target. Memphis is in no position to match which drives his value down off the bat, then he had a bad showing this season in the playoffs, and has really had a bad two seasons since Memphis signed Tony Allen and moved him to the bench. I think he'll get signficantly less than Eric Gordon. I'd be willing to spend up to $9-10M of Ted's money a season on Mayo for 4 years max.

He has a nice all around game and will contribute in a bunch of areas (loose balls, rebounding, defense, fascilitating). Mayo played 10% of his minutes at PG last season, so he can handle the ball a little bit. I think OJ Mayo will re-emerge where ever he ends up next season.

If Mayo ends up without any S&T value:

Wall/mack
mayo/Crawford
MKG/Singleton/Vesely
Booker/Seraphin
Nene

If you have to give up something like Crawford/Singleton to get Mayo, I'd be fine with that. Bring back Cartier martin to back up the 2/3. Give vesely minutes depending on his production at 3/4. Let seraphin, booker, and nene play 30 mins each at 4/5. Then in 2013 we have a 10-18 range pick and a decent amount of cap space --wont quote numbers since I probably have them wrong--to make more adjustments.