Deni Avdija - Part II

[TGW]

Love it.

[badinage]

This is excellent all around.

It’s a great deal for the team — this money is nothing, and will look even better in two years.

And Deni knows that he’s wanted, and that they’re going to invest in him, along with Bilal. This is big.

[BearlyBallin]

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This feels like something good happened today.

[J-Ves]

I'm happy with this. Deni either develops a 3 or he doesn't. In the event he doesn't the Wiz were in no hurry to be good anyway and just eat this fairly cheap deal. Deni plays the right way on defense and on the boards at the very least

[wco81]

Better than Rui for this team.

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Why?

Rui put up better numbers in his 3 seasons than Deni has.

And then Rui went to the Lakers and had a very good postseason and got himself a 3-year $51 million extension.

I got the sense that Wizards really didn't want to extend Rui so they basically sold him on the cheap, didn't get much back unless Nunn or one of those SRPs turn into key players.

Deni is a poor shooter, worse than Hachimura. And for a 6-9 guy, he must not finish that well because his overall FG% in 3 seasons is just 43.1%? He's only averaging about 3.1 3PA over his 3 seasons so he's taking a lot of midrange shots and/or not finishing well enough at the rim?

Deni's shooting over the 3 seasons has been about the same, not seeing improvement at least statistically. Maybe they're still working on his mechanics?

What is the one or two things he does well or offers that other players on the roster don't offer? Size and youth?

[nate33]

Holy crap! What an awesome deal! This is the best move of the offseason.

[80sballboy]

Better than Rui for this team.

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Why?

Rui put up better numbers in his 3 seasons than Deni has.

And then Rui went to the Lakers and had a very good postseason and got himself a 3-year $51 million extension.

I got the sense that Wizards really didn't want to extend Rui so they basically sold him on the cheap, didn't get much back unless Nunn or one of those SRPs turn into key players.

Deni is a poor shooter, worse than Hachimura. And for a 6-9 guy, he must not finish that well because his overall FG% in 3 seasons is just 43.1%? He's only averaging about 3.1 3PA over his 3 seasons so he's taking a lot of midrange shots and/or not finishing well enough at the rim?

Deni's shooting over the 3 seasons has been about the same, not seeing improvement at least statistically. Maybe they're still working on his mechanics?

What is the one or two things he does well or offers that other players on the roster don't offer? Size and youth?

I assume you are only looking at offensive numbers and not defensive numbers. Or passing. Not a huge fan of either, but it appears the new front office is favoring defense, which is not a bad thing. Have no idea what they would have done with Rui, but my guess is they probably would have let him go. Yes, he's a better mid-range scorer than Deni.

[nate33]

Better than Rui for this team.

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Why?

Rui put up better numbers in his 3 seasons than Deni has.

And then Rui went to the Lakers and had a very good postseason and got himself a 3-year $51 million extension.

I got the sense that Wizards really didn't want to extend Rui so they basically sold him on the cheap, didn't get much back unless Nunn or one of those SRPs turn into key players.

Deni is a poor shooter, worse than Hachimura. And for a 6-9 guy, he must not finish that well because his overall FG% in 3 seasons is just 43.1%? He's only averaging about 3.1 3PA over his 3 seasons so he's taking a lot of midrange shots and/or not finishing well enough at the rim?

Deni's shooting over the 3 seasons has been about the same, not seeing improvement at least statistically. Maybe they're still working on his mechanics?

What is the one or two things he does well or offers that other players on the roster don't offer? Size and youth?

Rui has always had a terrible feel for the game. If you can manage to put him in a role where he makes no decisions (playing on ball on defense, finisher on offense), he is a suitable role player. But he will never be more.

Deni has been better than Rui. The main difference is defense. Deni is one of the better defenders in the league and has a shot at making an All-Defense team at some point in his career. Rui is a fair on-ball defender but a horrific help defender. That showed in the numbers. Here is the on/off differential for Deni and Rui over the past three years:

2023
Deni +1.3
Rui -4.0

2022
Deni +5.2
Rui -3.4

2021
Deni -1.1 (as a 19-year-old rookie)
Rui -1.8

2020
Rui -6.0

Deni also consistently and dramatically outpaced Rui in rebounds, assists, steals and blocks per minute. And don't overlook that Deni is 3 years younger than Rui. The only thing Rui did better was score, because he took more shots. But taking more shots at a below-average efficiency isn't anything to be happy about.

Rui did have two outstanding runs in the playoffs thanks to hot shooting from 3. But were talking a sample size of 561 minutes. I think the regular season sample size of 5650 minutes is a much better basis for predicting the future.

[nate33]

I really hope they signed him to a declining contract like Kuzma. There's no reason not to.

[wco81]

Interesting.

If he is an all-defense player, it makes sense to keep him.

But it's a big if. Teams have let wings chosen in the lottery walk because they couldn't shoot and they basically became minimum salary players, like Stanley Johnson.

RHJ wasn't chosen in the lottery but like Johnson, athletic wings who could defend but couldn't shoot.

In the playoffs, good defenders who can't shoot well enough don't get minutes because they're too much of a handicap.

The thing that will be interesting is if Coulibaly becomes an effective player in his rookie season.

Kispert got more minutes last season than Deni, presumably because of his shooting. So if Coulibaly commands more minutes, what's left for Deni?

Haven't watched the Wizards in the preseason and not sure if ESPN is accurate but it lists the SF depth chart as Coulibaly starting with Deni and then Kispert as backups.

Last season at least, Kispert got more minutes.

So maybe they're planning to play Deni more at the 4 backing up Kuzma?

ESPN lists Gallinari as the backup behind Kuzma.

Is it that Deni is still an important part of their plans or did they just want to retain a potential trade asset, a young lottery-pick rotation player on a trade-able contract?

Or maybe they're still hoping that at 22, his shooting will improve enough to be an attractive trade asset?

[Jimmy Recard]

Great deal!

[nate33]

Interesting.

If he is an all-defense player, it makes sense to keep him.

But it's a big if. Teams have let wings chosen in the lottery walk because they couldn't shoot and they basically became minimum salary players, like Stanley Johnson.

RHJ wasn't chosen in the lottery but like Johnson, athletic wings who could defend but couldn't shoot.

In the playoffs, good defenders who can't shoot well enough don't get minutes because they're too much of a handicap.

The thing that will be interesting is if Coulibaly becomes an effective player in his rookie season.

Kispert got more minutes last season than Deni, presumably because of his shooting. So if Coulibaly commands more minutes, what's left for Deni?

Haven't watched the Wizards in the preseason and not sure if ESPN is accurate but it lists the SF depth chart as Coulibaly starting with Deni and then Kispert as backups.

Last season at least, Kispert got more minutes.

So maybe they're planning to play Deni more at the 4 backing up Kuzma?

ESPN lists Gallinari as the backup behind Kuzma.

Is it that Deni is still an important part of their plans or did they just want to retain a potential trade asset, a young lottery-pick rotation player on a trade-able contract?

Or maybe they're still hoping that at 22, his shooting will improve enough to be an attractive trade asset?

Don't overlook that Kispert is 2 years older than Avdija.

And Deni can absolutely play the 4. He's a very good rebounder. That's one bit of reassurance that he won't end up like Stanley Johnson. Even if Deni never develops a reliable 3-ball, he can slide over to the 4 where his lack of shooting is less of a liability. And he is still a very good ball handler and passer (albeit turnover-prone) so he provides interesting flexibility to the offensive sets even if he doesn't space well.

Don't get me wrong, his 3-ball is an issue. If he can get the shooting up to 35-36%, he's a legit starter in this league and a steal at this price. If he doesn't, then he's merely a 20-25 mpg role player. But paying a 25 mpg role player 10% more than MLE money isn't such a bad thing. Usually MLE guys are 6th/7th men.

[Lucky Once]

Deni got his bag

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If Deni ever does make the offensive jump we've all been hoping for this is going to be a tremendous value. If he has already plateaued I'm still pretty comfortable with this contract given his defensive contributions and the rising cap. Surprised both sides were able to come to this agreement but I'm happy to see it.

[gambitx777]

Wonderful contract. If he hits a late Speer like lari markenan or what ever that jass,, guys name is. He will be a huge value contract. If he doesn't he's decent value for a solid defender and rebounder. Good deal.

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[wewillnevertank]

Given what Grant Williams and Jarred Vanderbilt got, this maybe errs on the overpay side, but I'd rather lock him in now than repeat past RFA mistakes on a player who probably doesn't have a big trade market. Overall, it's a very fair, team-friendly deal that can easily be moved if necessary. Kudos to Dawkins for securing this proactively. I thought the Kuz deal was smart, and this is, too. Dawkins is 2 for 2.

[wewillnevertank]

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Important wrinkle in this conversation. We got Kuz to agree to a descending year-to-year deal, so it'd be a huge win if we pulled that off with Deni, too.

[doclinkin]

Interesting.

If he is an all-defense player, it makes sense to keep him.

Advanced analytics say Deni is highly rated as a defender, consistently holding opposing teams' best scorers below their average. Various articles have been written about it. Here are 4 scouts. And 2 videos.

https://theathletic.com/4832933/2023/09/05/deni-avdija-nba-scouts/

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=LockNation101

It is rare that a young player exhibits advanced defense, especially team D. These are commonly skills that are developed over a player's career. It is far easier to re-craft a jumpshot than to develop 'feel' for the game. Deni came into the league at age 19 with that advanced skillset on the hard end of the floor. The team is smart to sign him early and relatively cheap while his game is still incomplete.

The thing that will be interesting is if Coulibaly becomes an effective player in his rookie season.

That is what the team has to bank on. Young talent growing into their full potential. So far so good it looks like in the case of Coulibaly. He is undaunted out there, has been playing professional ball under a bright spotlight already so that adjustment is not as tricky as it might be. Coming from a year of pro ball under the guidance of the coach of the French national team he too is coming into the league with an advanced defensive skillset.

I am more interested in his ability to develop next to Deni, than I am worried about either stealing minutes from the other. The team has scorers, if these two can grow a defensive rapport, it bodes something special for the future. We need a reliable 2-way center, an intimidating stopper in the middle who can rebound, but I have eyes on a few prospects in the draft. If we land a stopper in the middle this defense is going to be daunting.

Kispert got more minutes last season than Deni, presumably because of his shooting.

Kispert is a bench player due to his lack of defense. He got more minutes than Deni since Beal was injured and he can shoot. Deni and Rui were each playing for each other's minutes, both incomplete players, Deni in shooting, Rui in literally everything else. There is a reason that despite the run in the playoffs that earned Rui his new contract, the Lakers are starting someone else at that spot.

Haven't watched the Wizards in the preseason and not sure if ESPN is accurate but it lists the SF depth chart as Coulibaly starting with Deni and then Kispert as backups.

Deni was out with back spasms, then Kuzma sat out a game. Bilal started next to both. That is how ESPN figured their listings: minutes played.

So maybe they're planning to play Deni more at the 4 backing up Kuzma? ESPN lists Gallinari as the backup behind Kuzma.

Deni plays 3 and 4 equally well. He defends 1-4 proficiently so you can slot him in next to any combination of players so long as you have shooters elsewhere to open things up. The team added Mike Muscala as a stretch Big, and Gallinari has talked about playing significant minutes at center this year, which makes sense since he has become footslow with age and injury. The team has potential shooters at any position if the guys they have can even maintain their career averages.

Is it that Deni is still an important part of their plans or did they just want to retain a potential trade asset, a young lottery-pick rotation player on a trade-able contract?

Or maybe they're still hoping that at 22, his shooting will improve enough to be an attractive trade asset?

Deni is a key part of their plans. Confidence has been an issue for him, as has maturity. He tends to whine at referees, and gets down on himself when he does not play well. Sulking even. With a long term contract now signed, that anxiety has been removed. the current FO shows him he is valued. His outside shot is looking better (on early looks in his limited preseason time) and the thing about maturity, it is one of the few things that improves with age, you know? NBA players reach their prime at about age 26-27. Deni has been playing pro ball since he was 16. He's got a head start on some things. He still has significant room to develop. As he gets comfortable in the league I'd like to see him play like he knows he belongs, but aside from his left hand dribble and his iffy outside shot, he does everything else at a pro level. To have only 2 deficiencies in your game is a pretty good basis from which to build. I'm curious to see how he grows. Not too worried that he won't.

[Dat2U]

Overpay based on what he's done so far. But not a terrible deal considering some of the other contracts. Definitely better than keeping & paying Rui. Has got to shoot better to have any real offensive value though otherwise he's nothing more than a 15-20 minute rotation 4/3. Personally I think he's best at PF too.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

This is a great deal. Shows faith in Deni while still being a team friendly deal for a 22 year-old that has shown he can do a little bit of everything and plays the right way.

Does he have flaws to his game? Obviously. He really needs to take a jump this season with his trey ball to solidify himself as a starter, and needs to stop being willy-nilly with some of his passes. Also needs to show more aggression and go left a bit more. The three ball to me is by far the most glaring issue he has with his game.

[badinage]

Overpay based on what he's done so far. But not a terrible deal considering some of the other contracts. Definitely better than keeping & paying Rui. Has got to shoot better to have any real offensive value though otherwise he's nothing more than a 15-20 minute rotation 4/3. Personally I think he's best at PF too.

Significant UNDERpay.

San Antonio just signed Zach Collins for $17.5 million a year for two years.

Versus this: 13.7 per.

Also: doesn’t this make Deni the first Wizards draft pick since Beal to net a second contract? That’s 11 years. Congrats, young man.