The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[NatP4]

Topic basically has one poor shooting performance that dropped his 3pt%. He shoots 87% from the free throw line.

Last year in 37 games he shot 37% from 3 and 89% from the free throw line.

23/24: 62% TS
22/23: 67.5% TS
21/22: 59.6% TS
20/21: 58.7% TS

He just turned 18 in August. He should be in play for 1st overall. He’s in a totally different tier from Isaiah Collier.

[nate33]

What in the hell are people talking about?!? If this FO is competent there is no way we have a top 8 pick in 2026.
Look at Houston, OKC, ORL, ATL, CLE etc... Picking top 8 Four Years in a row is almost unheard of and requires a high level of incompetence and bad luck.
The only teams I see in recent history would be "The Process", Detroit, and Post-LBJ Cavs. But they all missed terribly on multiple picks and/or had multiple injuries. Sure, if we draft Fultz, Okafor, Anthony Bennett, and Dion Waiters then we will probably by in top 8...
The goal is simple. Deni, Bilal, plus two top 6 picks should be enough of a core to get into the playoffs in 2026. Especially if we can flip our current vets for additional assets.

You fail to account for the incompetence of the franchise in the initial stages of the rebuild.

The three best examples you cited - Houston, OKC and Orlando - rebuilt well because they had a plan and executed it.

• Houston planned their rebuild by trading Harden for 3 first round picks. They also traded Covington for another FRP. They've had 7 FRP's in the past 3 drafts including the #2 (Green), #3 (Jabari), #4 (Amen); and they've done a nice job picking good players with their acquired picks, including Sengun at #16, Tari Eason at #17, and Cam Whitmore at #20.
  
• OKC planned their rebuild by trading Paul George for a king's ransom including SGA and a bunch of picks, turning Westbrook into Chris Paul and picks, and then Chris Paul into a pick from Phoenix. I don't even want to spend the time in calculating how many first round picks they've had in recent years - not to mention a superstar acquired via trade in SGA.
  
• Orlando planned their rebuild by trading Vukcevic to Chicago for Wendell Carter and two firsts including a high lotto pick that landed them Franz Wagner. They also traded Gordon for a first. They tanked their way into the Suggs and Paulo picks. All told, they had 5 lotto picks in 3 years from 2021 to 2023 (plus Cole Anthony leftover from the #15 pick in the 2020 draft before they committed to a rebuild).

The Wizards' rebuild was not planned. It was forced upon them by their own incompetence. As a result, they failed to trade their good vets when their value was high, so they are starting the rebuild from scratch. Indeed, they're actually in the hole on picks because of recent incompetence, having none of their own 2RP's and that FRP obligated to New York.

In a best case scenario, our rebuild may look something like Cleveland's or Atlanta's.

• Cleveland didn't have much of a head start on their rebuild. When Lebron abandoned them, their only asset was Kyrie, whom they traded for a FRP. Cleveland rebuilt by drafting Garland at #4 and Mobley at #2. They were opportunistic in absorbing Jarrett Allen as a 3rd party in the Brooklyn/Houston Harden trade. And they signed Mitchell with cap room. But then again, Mitchell may be leaving and Cleveland may be stuck in 40-win purgatory for a while.
  
• Atlanta didn't have many assets to start their rebuild either. They had a future first from Minnesota do to the Andrien Payne trade in 2015. That pick ended up being Kevin Huerter in the 2018 draft. They also drafted Collins before they tanked. Other than that, they rebuilt with their own picks (Luka [who turned into Trey and Reddish], Hunter and Okongwu). I'm not sure the end result is very pleasing. They had one nice playoff run in 2021, but other than that, they've been a .500 team.

So, I wouldn't get your hopes up. The quick rebuilds were done with intelligent planning. The ad hoc rebuilds are either not particularly successful (Cleveland and Atlanta) or they take much longer (Detroit, the process). Or sometimes they don't really come together at all for a decade (Charlotte, Sacramento).

At any rate, I don't think the rebuild started until this year. Sadly, we were trying to win games these last two seasons. So the Bilal pick really isn't the start of the rebuild. The rebuild starts with the top 5 pick we will have at the end of this tank season. So a 3-year rebuild would include the 2026 draft.

[nate33]

The bottom line is that the key component of any rebuild is to find a franchise player. That can either be via trade (SGA) a very high lotto pick (Luka, Tatum, Embiid, Edwards) or an improbably fortunate late pick (Jokic, Kawhi, Giannis, Sengun?). If you don't get that guy, your rebuild either never gets off the ground, or it stalls like Atlanta or Cleveland.

So if we get a franchise player either this summer or next (or if Bilal is a franchise player), then, sure, the rebuild might be quick. But if we don't land that guy, be prepared for a Detroit or Atlanta scenario.

[NatP4]

99% of this board thought Ivey and Cunningham were franchise players. They did absolutely nothing in college that predicated that.

[nate33]

99% of this board thought Ivey and Cunningham were franchise players. They did absolutely nothing in college that predicated that.

I thought Cunningham had franchise potential (though I liked Mobley more and would have taken Mobley first).

I don't think anyone called Ivey a likely franchise player. What Ivey is is a top 5% athlete who can get to the rim. You typically need that skillset to be a franchise player at the guard position, so in that sense, he has theoretical franchise potential. But it was also pretty clear that the rest of his game wasn't complete and it would take a lot of work for him to reach his full potential.

[payitforward]

We shall tank for 3 years…

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=GWeuz7j_sc5cBYZzdD92Tw

We may well be tanking for 3 years, but that tweet overstates the need to tank hard in 2026.

First of all, our pick is top 8 protected. The tweet is worried about dropping to #8, but the issue is falling all the way to #9, not #8. If we pick 8th, we still keep the pick.

The 4 worst teams are guaranteed to pick 8th or better.
The 5th worst team has a 0.6% chance of falling all the way to 9th - an extremely remote chance not worth worrying about.
The 6th worst team has a 3.8% chance of falling all the way to 9th - still a very, very unlikely scenario.

It's not until we get down to the 7th worst team that we really start having a serious risk of losing that pick. The 7th worst team has a 14.4% chance of falling to the #9 pick or lower.

So we need to finish in the bottom 6, but it's not that critical to finish in the bottom 3.

What in the hell are people talking about?!? If this FO is competent there is no way we have a top 8 pick in 2026.
Look at Houston, OKC, ORL, ATL, CLE etc... Picking top 8 Four Years in a row is almost unheard of and requires a high level of incompetence and bad luck.
The only teams I see in recent history would be "The Process", Detroit, and Post-LBJ Cavs. But they all missed terribly on multiple picks and/or had multiple injuries. Sure, if we draft Fultz, Okafor, Anthony Bennett, and Dion Waiters then we will probably by in top 8...
The goal is simple. Deni, Bilal, plus two top 6 picks should be enough of a core to get into the playoffs in 2026. Especially if we can flip our current vets for additional assets.

Sorry, but no. & anyway the goal is to contend for a title -- NOT to "get into the playoffs."

From the highly recommendable 3-part piece in the Athletic by David Aldridge:

"League sources said they ...expect the Wizards to remain one of the league’s worst teams in 2024-25 and in 2025-26."

You can start w/ part 3 -- https://theathletic.com/5144396/2023/12/18/roadmap-rebuild-wizards-roster-improvement/ -- but follow links to the other two installments: they are extremely interesting as well.

In short, this is the real deal -- a thorough, bottom-to-top rebuild that will take several years. Right now we have 1 player -- 1 only -- whom I feel certain will be on the team in 2 years: Bilal Coulibaly. I doubt that even 2 of the other 14 has anywhere near a 50% chance of being on our '25-26 roster.

[NatP4]

99% of this board thought Ivey and Cunningham were franchise players. They did absolutely nothing in college that predicated that.

I thought Cunningham had franchise potential (though I liked Mobley more and would have taken Mobley first).

I don't think anyone called Ivey a likely franchise player. What Ivey is is a top 5% athlete who can get to the rim. You typically need that skillset to be a franchise player at the guard position, so in that sense, he has theoretical franchise potential. But it was also pretty clear that the rest of his game wasn't complete and it would take a lot of work for him to reach his full potential.

Meh. People were comparing Ivey to Westbrook and Morant and claiming that we should sell the farm(future picks) to move up to pick him in the top 4. Similar comments regarding Scoot Henderson from this last cycle.

You need ALOT more to be a franchise player. Can’t be a bottom 5 defensive player in the NBA and mediocre playmaking skills and low basketball IQ.

We do this every year, overemphasis on the flashy athleticism, lack of emphasis on productivity and intangibles, level of comp, age vs historical context.

[Kanyewest]

99% of this board thought Ivey and Cunningham were franchise players. They did absolutely nothing in college that predicated that.

I thought Cunningham had franchise potential (though I liked Mobley more and would have taken Mobley first).

I don't think anyone called Ivey a likely franchise player. What Ivey is is a top 5% athlete who can get to the rim. You typically need that skillset to be a franchise player at the guard position, so in that sense, he has theoretical franchise potential. But it was also pretty clear that the rest of his game wasn't complete and it would take a lot of work for him to reach his full potential.

Yeah, Ivey seemed to stay on top of draft boards at the time simply because the point guard position in the draft was really weak. The Wizards also needed a starting caliber point guard but I think Ivey has always been a low floor high ceiling player because of the athleticism but didn't seem to possess a good jumper.

[nate33]

99% of this board thought Ivey and Cunningham were franchise players. They did absolutely nothing in college that predicated that.

I thought Cunningham had franchise potential (though I liked Mobley more and would have taken Mobley first).

I don't think anyone called Ivey a likely franchise player. What Ivey is is a top 5% athlete who can get to the rim. You typically need that skillset to be a franchise player at the guard position, so in that sense, he has theoretical franchise potential. But it was also pretty clear that the rest of his game wasn't complete and it would take a lot of work for him to reach his full potential.

Meh. People were comparing Ivey to Westbrook and Morant and claiming that we should sell the farm(future picks) to move up to pick him in the top 4. Similar comments regarding Scoot Henderson from this last cycle.

You need ALOT more to be a franchise player. Can’t be a bottom 5 defensive player in the NBA and mediocre playmaking skills and low basketball IQ.

We do this every year, overemphasis on the flashy athleticism, lack of emphasis on productivity and intangibles, level of comp, age vs historical context.

Yes. We do it every year and it often does not work out. But sometimes it does. And when it does, it's a home run.

Anthony Edwards is a good example of a guy with pretty lousy intangibles, bball IQ and playmaking, but still panned out as a first rate star thanks to his top 1% athleticism. You were pretty negative on Edwards if I recall correctly.

[NatP4]

There’s just so much more that goes into a “high ceiling” IMO. He had no feel for the game, was totally clueless on defense, and mediocre shooting potential. He’s a scoring combo guard, not a true lead guard/playmaker.

Those are mostly skills that don’t develop.I guess you can call that low floor stuff. To me, a player is just as likely to hit a random growth spurt or improve athletically as he is to magically develop feel for the game.

[NatP4]

I thought Cunningham had franchise potential (though I liked Mobley more and would have taken Mobley first).

I don't think anyone called Ivey a likely franchise player. What Ivey is is a top 5% athlete who can get to the rim. You typically need that skillset to be a franchise player at the guard position, so in that sense, he has theoretical franchise potential. But it was also pretty clear that the rest of his game wasn't complete and it would take a lot of work for him to reach his full potential.

Meh. People were comparing Ivey to Westbrook and Morant and claiming that we should sell the farm(future picks) to move up to pick him in the top 4. Similar comments regarding Scoot Henderson from this last cycle.

You need ALOT more to be a franchise player. Can’t be a bottom 5 defensive player in the NBA and mediocre playmaking skills and low basketball IQ.

We do this every year, overemphasis on the flashy athleticism, lack of emphasis on productivity and intangibles, level of comp, age vs historical context.

Yes. We do it every year and it often does not work out. But sometimes it does. And when it does, it's a home run.

Anthony Edwards is a good example of a guy with pretty lousy intangibles, bball IQ and playmaking, but still panned out as a first rate star thanks to his top 1% athleticism. You were pretty negative on Edwards if I recall correctly.

I’m not sure what “first rate star” means exactly, but Edwards is nothing special at all. Certainly not a franchise star like the other guys you mentioned (Jokic, Giannis, Embiid, Doncic). Slightly better than CJ McCollum in his prime? Sure.

[pcbothwel]

Sorry, but no. & anyway the goal is to contend for a title -- NOT to "get into the playoffs."

From the highly recommendable 3-part piece in the Athletic by David Aldridge:

"League sources said they ...expect the Wizards to remain one of the league’s worst teams in 2024-25 and in 2025-26."

You can start w/ part 3 -- https://theathletic.com/5144396/2023/12/18/roadmap-rebuild-wizards-roster-improvement/ -- but follow links to the other two installments: they are extremely interesting as well.

In short, this is the real deal -- a thorough, bottom-to-top rebuild that will take several years. Right now we have 1 player -- 1 only -- whom I feel certain will be on the team in 2 years: Bilal Coulibaly. I doubt that even 2 of the other 14 has anywhere near a 50% chance of being on our '25-26 roster.

1) How many teams contend for a title without at least 1, if not 2 years, of being a bottom 4 seed that garner playoff experience?
If we would like to contend for a Chip at the end of this decade when Bilal is in his prime, we will surely want to get some playoff experience in the year or 2 leading up.

2) I dont care what "League Sources" think. League sources didnt give a damn about Orlando and Indiana this summer. Are we in a poor recruiting market? Have we traded away multiple future 1st?
You and nate still have not addressed my point. I dont care about getting into each trade the Orlando or Houston made... Look at their team and timeline.
The Magic tanked and drafted 3 players in the top 8(Wagner, Suggs, and Banchero), and they are leading the team. Houston completely whiffed on Jalen Green, Jabari Smith hasnt done anything of note, and Amen looks terrible... And they wont be in the top 8.

Again... Do you realize how much of a failure this rebuild would have to be to get a top 8 pick in 2026? Nate brought up the Cavs...interesting.
So they lose to GSW in 2018 and Lebron leaves to LA. So year 1 of their rebuild is the 18/19 season
18/19 - They win 19 games and fall 3 spots in the draft and get Garland at 5... This is equal to us in 22/23 (Bilal)
19/20 - They win 19 games AGAIN, and AGAIN fall 3 spots in the draft and get Okoro at 5...This is equal to us in 23/24
20/21 - They win 22 games and MOVE UP 2 spots in the lotto and get Mobley...This is equal to us in 24/25

Then in 21/22, the Cavs win 44 games and the 3 guys leading the team in minutes are Garland, Okoro, and Mobley. If we cant garner the same production from our 3 picks, plus Deni, Kispert, Gafford, and Kuz... then WE FAILED in this iteration of the rebuild.

[nate33]

Meh. People were comparing Ivey to Westbrook and Morant and claiming that we should sell the farm(future picks) to move up to pick him in the top 4. Similar comments regarding Scoot Henderson from this last cycle.

You need ALOT more to be a franchise player. Can’t be a bottom 5 defensive player in the NBA and mediocre playmaking skills and low basketball IQ.

We do this every year, overemphasis on the flashy athleticism, lack of emphasis on productivity and intangibles, level of comp, age vs historical context.

Yes. We do it every year and it often does not work out. But sometimes it does. And when it does, it's a home run.

Anthony Edwards is a good example of a guy with pretty lousy intangibles, bball IQ and playmaking, but still panned out as a first rate star thanks to his top 1% athleticism. You were pretty negative on Edwards if I recall correctly.

I’m not sure what “first rate star” means exactly, but Edwards is nothing special at all. Certainly not a franchise star like the other guys you mentioned (Jokic, Giannis, Embiid, Doncic).

At age 22, he is the best player on the 2nd best team in the league. He leads their team in on/off differential by a mile. He will definitely make All-NBA this year, and probably will make the 1st or 2nd team. If that's not a "first rate star", I don't know what is.

[nate33]

Again... Do you realize how much of a failure this rebuild would have to be to get a top 8 pick in 2026? Nate brought up the Cavs...interesting.
So they lose to GSW in 2018 and Lebron leaves to LA. So year 1 of their rebuild is the 18/19 season
18/19 - They win 19 games and fall 3 spots in the draft and get Garland at 5... This is equal to us in 22/23 (Bilal)
19/20 - They win 19 games AGAIN, and AGAIN fall 3 spots in the draft and get Okoro at 5...This is equal to us in 23/24
20/21 - They win 22 games and MOVE UP 2 spots in the lotto and get Mobley...This is equal to us in 24/25

Then in 21/22, the Cavs win 44 games and the 3 guys leading the team in minutes are Garland, Okoro, and Mobley. If we cant garner the same production from our 3 picks, plus Deni, Kispert, Gafford, and Kuz... then WE FAILED in this iteration of the rebuild.

As I said, Cleveland is probably the optimistic scenario. But they also managed to add a starter (Jarrett Allen) for basically nothing. Without Jarrett Allen, that 44-win season would probably have been a 38-win season, after which they would have stalled out in 40-win purgatory if not for the free agency acquisition of Mitchell.

In hindsight, it looks like their rush to be relevant again may actually have been a bad idea. That team has little depth and if Mitchell bolts, they're not going to be very good and will have few options to get significantly better. Garland and Mobley are good, but neither may be All-NBA caliber franchise players. They'd be in better shape if 21/22 was a mediocre 30-win season so they could have picked in the 6-8 range and landed someone like Mathurin, Daniels or Sharpe instead of Agbaji.

[tontoz]

Yes. We do it every year and it often does not work out. But sometimes it does. And when it does, it's a home run.

Anthony Edwards is a good example of a guy with pretty lousy intangibles, bball IQ and playmaking, but still panned out as a first rate star thanks to his top 1% athleticism. You were pretty negative on Edwards if I recall correctly.

I’m not sure what “first rate star” means exactly, but Edwards is nothing special at all. Certainly not a franchise star like the other guys you mentioned (Jokic, Giannis, Embiid, Doncic).

At age 22, he is the best player on the 2nd best team in the league. He leads their team in on/off differential by a mile. He will definitely make All-NBA this year, and probably will make the 1st or 2nd team. If that's not a "first rate star", I don't know what is.

Yeah Ant is having a strong season, plays both ends, and gave Denver fits in the playoff last year. He averaged 31/5/5 and was arguably the best player in that series.

Watching him now i don't see him as a low IQ player at all.

[NatP4]

That definition of “first rate star” would also apply to guys like Bradley Beal. Be the best player on a team that has a solid 25 game stretch, make an all nba team, couple first round exits.

That’s not even close to the same tier as guys like Jokic, Doncic, Lillard, Curry, Giannis, Davis, Leonard, Butler, Embiid, prime Harden.

We could do this all day though. If the reward is an Anthony Edwards mixed in between your Jalen Green, Scoot Henderson, Jaden Ivey, Rj Barrets, I’m going to question the methodology.

[nate33]

That definition of “first rate star” would also apply to guys like Bradley Beal. Be the best player on a team that has a solid 25 game stretch, make an all nba team, couple first round exits.

That’s not even close to the same tier as guys like Jokic, Doncic, Lillard, Curry, Giannis, Davis, Leonard, Butler, Embiid, prime Harden.

We could do this all day though. If the reward is an Anthony Edwards mixed in between your Jalen Green, Scoot Henderson, Jaden Ivey, Rj Barrets, I’m going to question the methodology.

Gimme a break, NatP4. Yes, Edwards isn't as good as Jokic, Embiid and Luka. But he is rapidly climbing the latter of elite NBA players and is now in the top 12 or so at age 22. He is unquestionably a successful pick and will most likely have a career that pans out to be comparable to guys like Lillard, Davis or Butler. I don't think he's a top 50 All-Time player like Jokic, Doncic, Curry, Embiid or Kawhi, but let's set the bar at a reasonable level.

[NatP4]

That definition of “first rate star” would also apply to guys like Bradley Beal. Be the best player on a team that has a solid 25 game stretch, make an all nba team, couple first round exits.

That’s not even close to the same tier as guys like Jokic, Doncic, Lillard, Curry, Giannis, Davis, Leonard, Butler, Embiid, prime Harden.

We could do this all day though. If the reward is an Anthony Edwards mixed in between your Jalen Green, Scoot Henderson, Jaden Ivey, Rj Barrets, I’m going to question the methodology.

Gimme a break, NatP4. Yes, Edwards isn't as good as Jokic, Embiid and Luka. But he is rapidly climbing the latter of elite NBA players and is now in the top 12 or so at age 22. He is unquestionably a successful pick and will most likely have a career that pans out to be comparable to guys like Lillard, Davis or Butler. I don't think he's a top 50 All-Time player like Jokic, Doncic, Curry, Embiid or Kawhi, but let's set the bar at a reasonable level.

Top 12? As good as Damian Lillard and Anthony Davis? What are you even talking about?

You are the one that placed him in the franchise player category with Giannis, Luka, and Embiid. I’m saying that is total nonsense.

Is he a bust? No. He’s a good all star level player in the same tier as Bradley Beal over his career. He’s literally averaging 26&5 on 56% TS. If that is your success story in drafting that archetype of player vs the numerous busts like Jalen Green, I’ll go with a different strategy for evaluating players.

[pancakes3]

Yeah, Ant is really good. Not top 5 good like Jokic, Embiid and Luka, but solidly in the Ja, SGA, Fox, and Haliburton tier and above the next tier of guards (Beal-territory) of Trae, Brunson, Jamal Murray, and Donovan Mitchell.

Listing these names made me realize that there are a lot of good players in the league right now, and that's just in naming younger guards. Didn't mention the tier below those Beal-level guards like FVV, Cunningham, and Garland. Or Maxey, Dejounte Murray, and Desmond Bane. Haven't even gotten to the Sabonises, Wembys, Seguens, and Scottie Barnes's of the league yet.

I just named like 20 guys, all of whom are better than Poole/Kuz smh. I don't think we've had electrifying young talent since... 2017? And even then, that was the year when we ran into the buzzsaw that was peak, one-year Isaiah Thomas?

[nate33]

You are the one that placed him in the franchise player category with Giannis, Luka, and Embiid. I’m saying that is total nonsense.

When did I compare him to Giannis, Luka and Embiid?

My whole point on this is that, sometimes, the high risk/reward guy who has great athleticism but questionable intangibles does pan out. Sometimes you just take the guy with freak length, athleticism and body control, and hope they can figure things out. It helps even more if there's a reason other than laziness for them to be behind in basketball IQ and skill development. A guy like Edwards played football instead of basketball when he was young. Giannis came to the sport of basketball very late.

But sure, if you've got a physically gifted player who has been around basketball all his life but still plays like a moron, then you have to wonder if he just lacks the work ethic or smarts to play the game at an elite level.