2024 Draft Thread - Part III

[NatP4]

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Castle shot 1-16 on corner 3s, 3/23 on midrange shots.

[Frichuela]

Alex Sarr is a tall dude…

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?s=46&t=GWeuz7j_sc5cBYZzdD92Tw

[Dat2U]

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Castle shot 1-16 on corner 3s, 3/23 on midrange shots.

Castle is worse in the mid-range than expected. His outside shooting is a total projection.

There's alot to like about Carter but I cannot get over that hitch & moon ball. I just have major concerns about that shot translating and him having enough time to get it off against NBA defenses. I could buy some of the Derrick White comparisons if the shot was one motion but it's not at all.

[joshuacf]

Ok not Indiana. More and more Myles Turner does feature as an outside shooting Big to provide spacing. Siakam and Hali both take advantage and rely on that space. And is a mobile switching defender on the outside. So he makes the opposite point than mine.

The Cavs however play two seven footers. Neither of whom is a skilled outside shooter. The Cavs succeed on the strength of their interior defense, and whichever of the two guards steps up. Their tiny combo guard Garland has fallen off with the refs' altered defensive rules emphasis.

The Knicks freely rotate their Bigs on the interior, and saw their rise in the standings correspond with their beefy forward intentionally playing closer to the basket instead of hucking from outside the paint. Randle shot over 8 3's a game the year before, dropped to 5-ish this year. When healthy they evenly switch between Robinson & Hartenstein, playing Achiuwa significant minutes with Robinson/Randle out. Thibbs makes sure to always have a true Big on the floor. When teams go small on him, he goes bigger. In the playoffs you saw Hartenstein would step out of bounds on the endline to make space for guard penetration, jumping inbounds when the shot went up to establish position for offensive boards. The Knicks lived on the offensive boards this year, one of the few teams that focuses on them instead of heavily emphasizing transition defense as many teams trended during the peak of small ball.

The Cavs and Knicks playing 7 footers doesn't mean they're built around 7 footers, that makes no sense. The Cavs were carried by their best player Donovan Mitchell. Donovan Mitchell had 31.4% usage and Garland had 25.3%. Third on the team was Carius Levert at 23.1% and then all the way down at 20.6% was Mobley.

The Knicks are even more profound. Brunson was at 32.5%, Randle at 29.9%. Your two examples of "monsters in the middle" Robinson & Hartenstein had a very impressive 12% and 10% utilitization respectively. Clear the Knicks are really living and dying on big man play with stats like that.

Show me how many games Purdue lost due to Edey's inability to shoot 3's.
Otherwise defend why it is relevant for him to have shot them in games.

Zero. And Illinois didn't lose any games because Cockburn couldn't shoot 3's, and Zaga didn't lose any because Timme couldn't shoot 3's, and Kentucky didn't lose any because Oscar T. couldn't shoot 3's....

It's pretty unbelievable that you don't understand that the college-style offense of feeding the ball in the post to bigs who overpower inferior compeition isn't how the NBA operates anymore. The size and skill advantage Edey had in college is going to go away in the NBA. The best NBA bigs (Jokic, Embiid, Sabonis, AD, KAT, soon to be Wemby) all have the abilty to put the ball on the floor from the perimiter and shoot 3's. They aren't lumbering bigs that camp in the low post.

[gesa2]

I don’t love the overpowering post game style of basketball, I admit it’s part of why I don’t love Edey. But Doc is such a persuasive writer it almost makes me hope we get him. Sheppard at 2 Edey at 13, I guess I could live with that

[SUPERBALLMAN]

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[Dat2U]

This is why Castle is on my do-not-draft list in the lottery. I'm starting to think 20 is too high for him as well.

IMO he's barely a notch above the Amen, Ausar territory as far as a shooter but without the quick twitch athleticism to compensate.

Even if he improves to Anthony Black / Delon Wright levels shooting wise, your looking at an Issac Okoro type. A decent but dime-a-dozen wing the may not have the rim protection to offset the lack of floor spacing.

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[badinage]

I’m beginning to fear we’re being played — all this Ris talk from Atlanta, all the putting out there of the fact that Sarr didn’t work out for Atl, that he prefers DC …

They’re going to take him.

I don’t know that; no one does. But I feel it.

Or rather, I fear it.

[FAH1223]

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/6/24/24184539/nba-draft-2024-prospect-big-board-alex-sarr-reed-sheppard-donovan-clingan-washington-wizards

Kevin's YODA big board

The YODA Big Board

1. Alex Sarr, F/C, Perth (1) — Long and agile, Sarr reminds of Evan Mobley on the defensive end. The offense is still a work in progress, but he’s just 19 years old and has flashed some tantalizing skill. I think he’s likely to the best player from the 2024 draft.
2. Reed Sheppard, G, Kentucky (4) — Sheppard’s on-court production defied his lack of size and wingspan. He shot 56% on twos, 52% on threes, and 83% from the free throw line. He’s second on Kentucky’s all-time single-season steals list behind Rajon Rondo — and ahead of John Wall. He blocked more shots last season than Wall did in his season at Kentucky. Does that mean he’ll be great in the NBA? Of course not. Sheppard being this high is a signal of the draft’s overall weakness. Still, at minimum, I think he’ll be a good NBA player.
3. Stephon Castle, G, Connecticut (5) — Big, strong, defends, accepted coaching and a “lesser” role at Connecticut, which helped the team repeat as NCAA champions. Must improve his shooting.
4. Donovan Clingan, C, Connecticut (3) — Clingan has a long future as an elite drop defender and rebounder in the NBA. His lack of agility will limit defensive versatility. He’ll need to develop (or reveal) a better offensive game.
5. Devin Carter, G, Providence (11) — If I was an NBA GM, I’d want Carter on my team. He did just about everything reasonably well, including shoot the ball. He rebounded like a forward, assisted like a guard, and produced steals and blocks. Oh yeah, he also has good size and tested as the best athlete at the combine. And he defends.
6. Zach Edey, C, Purdue (17) — I could make a case for Edey to rank even higher based on his on-court production. The two-time NCAA Player of the Year was a big-time scorer and rebounder, who also was an effective defender in college. His agility score at the combine suggests a good enough athlete to hold his own in the NBA. And he’s 7-4 in socks.
7. Ron Holland, W, G League Ignite (13) — Talented youngster with obvious skills who had a bad season for a dysfunctional team that had no competent guards. Against G League competition, Holland rebounded, got steals and blocks, and at least tried on offense. The offensive results were poor — 24.0% on threes — but the overall package is still worth a high pick in this year’s draft.
8. Nikola Topic, G, Red Star (12) — Skilled offensive creator with a knack for getting into the lane despite lacking elite physical tools. Excellent playmaker and good finisher at-rim. Concerns: he’s been a poor defender, and he reportedly has a partially torn ACL.
9. Rob Dillingham, G, Kentucky (10) — Creative scorer and good shooter, who’s lack of size and strength raises questions about whether he can defend effectively enough to play big minutes in the NBA.
10. DaRon Holmes II, F, Dayton (27) — I’m a bit puzzled about why consensus mocks have him so low. The 22-year-old scored efficiently, rebounded well, produced some assists, and generated steals and blocks without fouling. If he’s still available when the [url='https://www.bulletsforever.com/']Washington Wizards[/url] pick at 26, they’d do well to take him.
11. KJ Simpson, G, Colorado (45) — The last time I can remember a mismatch like this (YODA liking a prospect to this degree and consensus having him much lower) was Jalen Brunson. Not to say Simpson is the next Brunson, and he is small for an NBA guard, but he shot well, grabbed 6.6 rebounds per 40, and got just enough steals to be interesting.
12. Dalton Knecht, W, Tennessee (7) — Already 23 years old, Knecht’s main (only?) selling point is his shooting, which is pretty good. He posted a strong agility score at the combine.
13. Tyler Smith, F, G League Ignite (28) — Another talented youngster who had a rough season with a terrible Ignite squad. Smith shot well (36.0% on decent volume of threes) and grabbed some rebounds. He also fouled a lot. Still, interesting enough to be worth a late lottery pick.
14. Jared McCain, G, Duke (15) — Great shooter who probably has more dimension to his game than he could show at Duke.
15. N’Faly Dante, C, Oregon (65) — Long. Shot 69.5% on twos, rebounds well, averaged 2.2 steals and 2.4 blocks per 40 minutes. This kind of production usually signals a productive NBA rim runner.
16. Jamal Shead, G, Houston (44) — Smaller, older (22), but freaky quick and tough. Averaged 8.1 assists per 40 and a 3/1 assists-to-turnover ratio. Shooting is a question mark.

That’s the end of the first round grades. Here’s group that’s close:

• Tyler Kolek, G, Marquette (25)
• Matas Buzelis, F, G League Ignite (6)
• Keshad Johnson, F, Arizona (51)
• Terrence Shannon Jr., W, Illinois (31)
• Ja’Kobe Walter, G, Baylor (14)
• Yves Missi, C, Baylor (22)
• Antonio Reeves, G, Kentucky (62) — SHOOTER!
• Kel’El Ware, C, Indiana (19)
• Zaccharie Risacher, W, Bourg (2) — Unimpressive production paired with unimpressive physical profile.
• Ariel Hukporti, C, Ludwigsburg (64)
• Tristen Newton, G, Connecticut (59)
• Harrison Ingram, W, North Carolina (39)

And now for players who might provide value in the second round or as undrafted free agents:

• Cam Spencer, W, Connecticut (57)
• Dillon Jones, W, Weber State (47)
• Jonathan Mogbo, F/C, San Francisco (41)
• Juan Nunez, G, Ulm (43)
• Bub Carrington, G, Pitt (18)
• Isaiah Collier, G, USC (21)
• Ryan Dunn, F, Virginia (26)
• PJ Hall, F/C, Clemson (56)
• Baylor Scheierman, W, Creighton (29)
• Johnny Furphy, W, Kansas (23)
• Pacome Dadiet, G, Ulm (33)
• Reece Beekman, G, Virginia (60)
• Cody Williams, W, Colorado (8)
• Tidjane Salaun, F, Cholet (9)
• Melvin Ajinca, W, Saint Quenton (49)
• Oso Ighodaro, F, Marquette (48)
• Tristan Da Silva, F, Colorado (16)
• Kevin McCullar, W, Kansas (34)
• Armando Bacot, C, North Carolina (91)
• Kyle Filipowski, C, Duke (24)

A few notable names:

• Kyshawn George and Bobi Klintman are considered first round picks in the consensus mock, but neither ranks among YODA’s top 50 prospects.
• YODA has Bronny James ranked in the 50s.

[nate33]

I’m beginning to fear we’re being played — all this Ris talk from Atlanta, all the putting out there of the fact that Sarr didn’t work out for Atl, that he prefers DC …

They’re going to take him.

I don’t know that; no one does. But I feel it.

Or rather, I fear it.

No. You are being played. What possible motivation would Atlanta have to try and convince the world they don't want Sarr, only to take him on draft day?

There are only 2 possibilities:

1. The rumors are true. They don't really want Sarr and Sarr doesn't really want to play there.
2. They want Sarr somewhat, but even more than that, they want to move down a little bit and add an extra asset. So they're signaling to San Antonio that they want Risacher.

If they really did want Sarr a lot, there would be no motivation to play games. They would just take him. Indeed, if they really felt Sarr was the best value, they would hype him up even more in the hopes that someone would come along with a godfather offer to move up to #1.

[closg00]

I’m beginning to fear we’re being played — all this Ris talk from Atlanta, all the putting out there of the fact that Sarr didn’t work out for Atl, that he prefers DC …

They’re going to take him.

I don’t know that; no one does. But I feel it.

Or rather, I fear it.

No. You are being played. What possible motivation would Atlanta have to try and convince the world they don't want Sarr, only to take him on draft day?

There are only 2 possibilities:

1. The rumors are true. They don't really want Sarr and Sarr doesn't really want to play there.
2. They want Sarr somewhat, but even more than that, they want to move down a little bit and add an extra asset. So they're signaling to San Antonio that they want Risacher.

If they really did want Sarr a lot, there would be no motivation to play games. They would just take him. Indeed, if they really felt Sarr was the best value, they would hype him up even more in the hopes that someone would come along with a godfather offer to move up to #1.

Badinage’s position is understandable, Psychologists refer to this as “Battered Wiz Fan Syndrome”

[gambitx777]

I hope we don't fall into that trap of over paying to move up one spot.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[Dark Faze]

I think it's obvious Atlanta wants to trade down, but not too far down. 4 and 8 maybe, or 2 + assets from us.

I just don't see them passing on Sarr for Zacc. Doesn't make sense. I think they don't love Sarr, but they'll take him if he's there because it makes more sense to just go concensus in a situation where they could rebuild their roster overnight to look like whatever.

If that's the case the optimal move in my mind would be Sheppard and hopefully getting the Kings pick and grabbing Edey.

[nate33]

After seeing YODA's assessment of KJ Simpson, I took a good look.

Why is this guy mocked so low? He is awesome offensively with no weaknesses. He can catch-and-shoot and pull up off the dribble. He can get to the rim. He rebounds like a forward. He takes care of the ball. He is just 6'-0.5" in socks, but he has a pretty decent 6'-4.5" wingspan, exceptional lane agility, and a very good vertical leap. And he does this while being a burly 187 pounds. Like all small players, he'll be disadvantaged defensively, but at least he has the strength to keep from being pushed under the rim.

He had one of the best BPM's in college basketball, 8th best among non-seniors.

I'd be fine with him at #26. Or better yet, trade down with Portland, the #26 for their #34 and #40 and get KJ Simpson plus a guy like Kevin McCullar or Nikola Djurisic.

[nate33]

I think it's obvious Atlanta wants to trade down, but not too far down. 4 and 8 maybe, or 2 + assets from us.

I just don't see them passing on Sarr for Zacc. Doesn't make sense. I think they don't love Sarr, but they'll take him if he's there because it makes more sense to just go concensus in a situation where they could rebuild their roster overnight to look like whatever.

If that's the case the optimal move in my mind would be Sheppard and hopefully getting the Kings pick and grabbing Edey.

Yes. It's possible that Sarr is #1 on their list, but only marginally higher than other prospects such that they're willing to trade down for a modest incentive.

But if that was the case, I think they would still be signaling that they really like him and they would have at least convinced Sarr to come for a workout just to maintain the facade that they like him. By hinting they don't really want Sarr at all, they are reducing their negotiation leverage. It doesn't really make sense unless they know full well that they have no intention of drafting him.

[NatP4]

Simpson is also a really good defender, probably the most competitive player in the draft, and a great leader. Dominated at the combine.

Been under the radar/ignored all year while everyone overrates Williams&Da Silva.

[NatP4]

This sealed the deal with the “Sarr doesn’t want Atlanta” rumors for me. Incredibly awkward and defensive interview from Hawks CEO:

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[nate33]

I just hope Dawkins forces Atlanta to actually draft Sarr before giving up anything whatsoever to trade up for him.

[closg00]

Our fall back plan should be to draft Reed, not Risacher, I would be thrilled to have Reed be our consolation prize.

[pancakes3]

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Castle shot 1-16 on corner 3s, 3/23 on midrange shots.

that's incredibly bad. you might as well draft Ryan Dunn with those shooting numbers.