What Should the Wizards Should Do with the 5th Pick?

[Ji]

Is Harden dropping for the same reason why Paul Pierce dropped to 10?

[barelyawake]

Sigh...

A'ight, put it this way, if E.G. can figure this mess out, he's a better man than me. As far as I can get, I suppose the goal is to develop McGee as our "future."

I know what we shouldn't do, and that's use the pick on someone who doesn't play defense. That's step one. So, all the ideas that involve getting anyone below average on defense ought to be scrapped from the get.

Honestly, I'm lost (and that usually doesn't happen).

[Severn Hoos]

Sev, that draft year (2001) I had no life and was really on top of the draft (pre-Draft Express). I said Boozer would be way better than Kwame. I also said instead of drafting one of the HSers I hoped the Wizards would trade down for two picks and try to get Battier and either Troy Murphy or Zach Randolph. The proven guys made sense to become at least good role players.

In this draft I like the guys doc mentioned: Blair, Curry, , Calathes, Green, Collison, Lawson (talent but not nec. character), and Terrance Williams because I see them being very solid role players.

Trading down for one of them would be fine IMO and in the end the draft curse at 5 will work out alright.

Yep, I remember that Draft. Assuming that GS would have traded the #5 & #13 for the #1, it would have been a great deal - provided they followed through and took Battier (not Richardson) and Murphy. [And remember, that was the year that GS took Arenas in the 2nd round. What a haul - and from a "historically weak" draft!]

Ernie has said that he wants to interview potential draftees and get a feel for their personality, work ethic, maturity, etc. I'm sure he'll be looking for guys who can contribute right away - which is why Curry, Harden, and Blair will probably be the most talked about.

I'm leaning more toward keeping the pick at this point. I just don't see a good outcome if they deal it. (though I might look at a possible Childress deal if ATL was interested) Might as well work out as many guys as you can, and pick the one that you think will best right out of the gate.

And spaceman - I agree, I think a trade of some of the youth for a veteran might free up Ernie to keep the pick and draft a guy who's ready to contribute on Day 1. That could be the best scenario out of the situation.

[nate33]

Ernie already leaked his draft strategy with the Griffin, Rubio or bust thing. Sure, he likes to play it tricksy this time of year but for once I believe him. The only way I see this changing(and it would make it very obvious his strategy would change as well) is if we dealt Young and Blatche before the draft for a vet, allowing us to take a gamble on a Hill or Evans. Barring that type of move, we are going for best fit, instant contributor type. James Harden.
I think all the Harden haters on this board are pretty ridiculous. No, he doesn't have a 40 inch vertical or a 3.14 shuttle time but neither do a hell of a lot of other good to great players in this league. By the time next years playoffs came around I think he would be averaging about 15/3/3 with solid percentages which would ALREADY be an upgrade to Deshawn. I think his strength is also a pretty big asset and when paired with his smarts, will help him to be at least an average defender next year. Let's not forget the guy was only a sophomore this year (19 years old) so there is plenty of room for improvement in his game and body.

I will take that any day over Vince for $15mil or a broken down Redd. The only alternative to this I see is trading for Amare or Bosh. I'd love to see either of those, especially if it means we send out Jamison(to clear the log jam and cap space).

Agreed.

I'm completely opposed to giving the pick and filler for an over-the-hill, overpaid SG like Vince or Rip. And I wouldn't trade for Redd because we don't need another all offense/no defense starter.

The bottom line is that we will be hamstrung for years if we acquire another 8-figure salary to go alongside the Big Three + Haywood. It just can't work in this league. If our Big Three isn't good enough to get it done with just the help of role players on rookie contracts and MLE salaries, then the problem is our Big Three, not our bench.

I'd much rather just draft Harden at #5 than get Vince/Rip/Redd etc. We won't win a championship, but we'll keep the salary under control so that we can make a move later.

[MOrgil]

Last night's lottery has killed all of my optimism for next season... All we can do now is to hope that Ernie will find a gem with the #5 pick, whether through trade or draft. Personally, I want a trade so that we can get rid off bums like Etan Thomas and Mike James. Seeing them play makes me wanna smash my TV.

[tkunit]

I am still just shaking my head, but looking at the draft there are really 3 options.

Trade down or out to try and dump something etan, stevenson etc. Maybe get a player like Mike Miller out of it.

Draft a player in this senario I would take James Johnson, I like what he could bring however this is subject to change with work outs and stuff. But for now he is my guy.

Third choice, trade the #5 caron and a big peice of trash for Bosh or another serious upgrade. I stress the word upgrade.

Should be interesting and I can just feel a heated summer at times on this board. Also Budinger with our 2nd please.

[Tiago]

Does anyone know anything about Brandon Jennings game besides what you read about on NBA.draft and draftexpress.com?

Ive seen some videos and he looks highly skilled but a project.

is he the next telfair?

I watched some of his games and I can tell you that he's not a better version of Telfair, he's really fast, great dribble but not a good shooter and inefficient.

[doclinkin]

OK, I'm still pretty bummed. Intellectually, I could clearly see how Griffin would be a perfect fit on the Wiz, and would really make them the one team that could challenge the crybabaliers for the next 5-10 years. (I would have LOVED to see a guy like Griffin - every bit as big or bigger than LeBron and almost as athletic - give a hard foul or two in the playoffs. Then we'd see what he's made of. "Danny, they're trying to hurt meeeeee......")

But emotionally, I never could give over to the idea that we'd actually get the #1 pick. I was expecting the #3 - and at least consoled myself with the idea that someone would trade up to get Thabeet. Now even that hope is gone.

So, looking at the draft with a more dispassionate approach, here's the best I can offer:

The draft won't start in earnest until the Kings with the 4th pick. The top 3 look to be pretty set, so who do the Kings take? Interestingly, their roster is kind of like the anti-Wiz. The two spots where they are pretty well set are SG & PF (Martin, Garcia, Thompson, even Hawes?). And those are the two spots that, IMO, the Wiz would be best served to upgrade or augment. And, the players slotted to go in the 4-8 range include a lot of SGs and PFs (Hill, Harden, DeRozan, Curry, Evans). I saw one insta-mock with the Kings taking Jennings. It'd be a reach - but nothing they do would surprise me at this point.

I suspect they would take Hill and hope he could form a big man rotation with Hawes & Thompson, or they trade the pick. No point in adding another SG, unless they go with the combo idea and pair someone like Evans with Martin. But let's assume that Hill goes #4.

If I'm EG, my first preference would be to trade down. If they can just unload one bad deal (Stevenson?) and stay in the top 10-12, I think it would be worth it.

I would not want them to trade out completely, with only a very few exceptions. Remember, Jamison was 28 when EG traded for him in 2004. Big difference from VC, who's already 32. Rip is 31. Redd is 30 and coming off an injury (and can't/won't play defense). I'm afraid a trade for one of those guys will cause a lot of regrets in 2-3 years, when someone from this draft will be a budding All-Star and our team looks really old. The only guys I talk about in trade would be Joe Johnson, Horford, maybe Childress (I watch a lot of Hawks games these days), Rudy F, and (gulp) Brand. I rather doubt that any of them will be available, but worth a try.

So if no trades materialize, take the best player - which in this case means the best fit, best attitude, best character, a lot more than just most potential. I would much prefer a more mature, "finished product" to yet another project. Which rules out DeRozan, Jennings, and Evans. I hope they bring in about 20 guys and match them up as much as possible. Take a close look at Harden's atleticism. Get a true measure of Blair and Curry. Maybe see if Henderson can completely shut down Harden in a competitive (2 on 2) setting.

And in the end, draft a guy who can contribute right away: Blair, Harden, Curry, Henderson, Clark, James Johnson is my short list.

My guess: Harden. Not excited about it, but not particularly exercised over it, either. And then probably follow it up with a trade to thin out the kids (Blatche & Young look like prime candidates to move). And that's all we have to show for 19-63.

Hate to re-post a long quote, but I couldn't find a 'graph to cut. This is pretty much exactly where I am. If we can trade down a couple spots to land a player or future pick and then be forced into the 'best player available' I think we'll be fine.

We've got a nice squad, okay no dynasty, just missed our best chance at something really special, but at the end of the day we're still better off than we were. Get some benefit from a lost season.

And in the end, draft a guy who can contribute right away: Blair, Harden, Curry, Henderson, Clark, James Johnson is my short list.

Similar, though my order might flipflop a bit. I'm liking Johnson more nowadays; Curry of course; Clark is not quite a polished talent but would be an immediate defensive upgrade and can actually challenge our whinging nemesis. Blair will do what he does, add toughness and grit, though I don't see him as a starter at any point, but as a raider off the bench he'll tire opponents out, adds a nice tough veteran aspect despite his youth. Henderson is the most well-rounded of the 2-guards. Harden has all the IQ and cunning I'd want of any player, one of my favorite college ballers to watch this year despite any question marks I had.

And I'd add Maynor if we've traded back past Lawson. We need a guy who can score and distribute off the bench. Then later in the draft Nick Calathes, same reason, with outside shooting. Danny Green if we've shed deadwood from the roster and added a later pick, or if he's available in rd 2 (he won't be, will climb after workouts) his defense and spot-up shooting should fit.

Late in the game I'm also interested in Marcus Thornton, Aaron Jackson, Darren Collison, Jeff Pendergraph, Sam Young, possibly Jon Brockman. Jack McClinton as a longrange rifleman.

If we can open up our roster a little bit, while dropping back, we can still pick up nice players and add quality depth. The team will receive an offer from somebody behind them, the question is whether it's worth it. If not, fine, best player available. There will definitely be players even late in this draft who will help the team that drafts 'em.

[miller31time]

Ernie already leaked his draft strategy with the Griffin, Rubio or bust thing. Sure, he likes to play it tricksy this time of year but for once I believe him. The only way I see this changing(and it would make it very obvious his strategy would change as well) is if we dealt Young and Blatche before the draft for a vet, allowing us to take a gamble on a Hill or Evans. Barring that type of move, we are going for best fit, instant contributor type. James Harden.
I think all the Harden haters on this board are pretty ridiculous. No, he doesn't have a 40 inch vertical or a 3.14 shuttle time but neither do a hell of a lot of other good to great players in this league. By the time next years playoffs came around I think he would be averaging about 15/3/3 with solid percentages which would ALREADY be an upgrade to Deshawn. I think his strength is also a pretty big asset and when paired with his smarts, will help him to be at least an average defender next year. Let's not forget the guy was only a sophomore this year (19 years old) so there is plenty of room for improvement in his game and body.

I will take that any day over Vince for $15mil or a broken down Redd. The only alternative to this I see is trading for Amare or Bosh. I'd love to see either of those, especially if it means we send out Jamison(to clear the log jam and cap space).

Agreed.

I'm completely opposed to giving the pick and filler for an over-the-hill, overpaid SG like Vince or Rip. And I wouldn't trade for Redd because we don't need another all offense/no defense starter.

The bottom line is that we will be hamstrung for years if we acquire another 8-figure salary to go alongside the Big Three + Haywood. It just can't work in this league. If our Big Three isn't good enough to get it done with just the help of role players on rookie contracts and MLE salaries, then the problem is our Big Three, not our bench.

I'd much rather just draft Harden at #5 than get Vince/Rip/Redd etc. We won't win a championship, but we'll keep the salary under control so that we can make a move later.

I understand your point, Nate, but tell me - what is the direction of this team?

Trading the pick for a guy like Hamilton at least gives us some sort of direction. It says we're going to win now. As I've said, that move doesn't necessarily have to be the last move we make (and I'd hope it wouldn't be). It would potentially be followed up with a deal that swaps Jamison for a defensive power forward.

The point here, though, is that this is a team that has absolutely no direction. Are we rebuilding? Are we contending? The answer? Neither - we're in NBA Purgatory.

The problem is that, unless we have a yard-sale and get rid of Arenas, Butler and Jamison, we're not in a position to rebuild which would make keeping the pick utterly pointless to me. So the pick *might* be good in 2-4 years? Wonderful.....but the rest of our core will be over the hill by that time.

I think the best course of action here is to go through a step-by-step process to getting our team to title-form in the shortest amount of time. Not rebuilding. Not stockpiling more young players. Contending. We do this, first, by establishing ourselves as a sure-fire 50-55-win team by acquiring Hamilton or Carter (I have no interest in Redd). Follow it up with a Jamison trade (maybe for a Kenyon Martin or an Andrei Kirilenko) and see what happens.

[jeff1624]

What would it take the nets to move up to the #5??

[Soup's Uncle]

I'd welcome Mike Miller on this team. He can the 3. He's def a starting 2.

[DallasShalDune]

I have an irrational hope that we get Harden and he's the next Roy or Pierce. What is holding him back from exceeding expectations? He seems to have a common skill set with at least Roy.

[DallasShalDune]

I'd welcome Mike Miller on this team. He can the 3. He's def a starting 2.

I don't know if he is worth the 5 pick though. He can't play any defense, and he is a road worn player for a reason. He can score, but that is about it.

[nate33]

I think the best course of action here is to go through a step-by-step process to getting our team to title-form in the shortest amount of time. Not rebuilding. Not stockpiling more young players. Contending. We do this, first, by establishing ourselves as a sure-fire 50-55-win team by acquiring Hamilton or Carter (I have no interest in Redd). Follow it up with a Jamison trade (maybe for a Kenyon Martin or an Andrei Kirilenko) and see what happens.

I agree with the first sentence, just not with the rest. If the ultimate plan is:

A: ?
B: Trade Jamison for younger player
C: See what happens

Then I think the logical choice for A would be to acquire a younger cheaper player like Harden (or Curry, Evans, or trade for a younger guy)

[rsavaj]

Jason Richardson?

[doclinkin]

I have an irrational hope that we get Harden and he's the next Roy or Pierce. What is holding him back from exceeding expectations? He seems to have a common skill set with at least Roy.

Roy finishes with both hands, was noted as a good defender in college, has better natural athletic grace. Lean and strong and coordinated. Open court handle.

Harden was playing in a system that was drafted specifically to suit his strengths while hiding his weaknesses. Has only a left hand (even switching mid-air to finish lefty at the rim). Is sturdy/strong but not especially quick. Hits open shots but doesn't shoot well when guarded outside/off the dribble, doesn't break his man down with his handle, needs a screen to get free. Handles best in a halfcourt set.

But both are smart team players who were knocked in college because they looked to set their teammates up before they tried to get their own. Harden will get open shots in any offense next to Gil/Caron/Jamison and will make the smart pass when the smart shot isn't there. Thick around the middle no telling if he'll gain more bounce as he leans up and works hard. No telling what his defensive capabilities are since the scheme he played in didn't test it-- but he played a similar defensive scheme to the one Flip likes best and he's a good floor leader who will help teach his teammates how to run the match-up zone, tell them where to be when.

Again, for better and for worse he's the anti-Nick Young.

[miller31time]

I agree with the first sentence, just not with the rest. If the ultimate plan is:

A: ?
B: Trade Jamison for younger player
C: See what happens

Then I think the logical choice for A would be to acquire a younger cheaper player like Harden (or Curry, Evans, or trade for a younger guy)

That's fine but it comes at a price. With Hamilton or Carter, though it's expensive, we know what we're getting. We know they will produce.

With Harden, Evans or Curry, their best-case-scenario IS to be Hamilton or Carter (maybe a bit more for Evans, though with greater chance at failure), and it would take much longer to actually happen - a window that we simply do not have with our roster.

If we had 5 or 6 years to develop a championship team, I don't think anyone on this board (including myself) would have a problem drafting Harden, Curry or Evans. But that's not the reality of the situation. We have 2 years, 3 at most. Harden/Curry/Evans won't make a significant impact in that time. Hamilton/Carter will.

[Severn Hoos]

I have an irrational hope that we get Harden and he's the next Roy or Pierce. What is holding him back from exceeding expectations? He seems to have a common skill set with at least Roy.

If it's any consolation, I do think Harden could be the next Ricky Pierce. I know, cheap joke - but actually not a bad comparison. Ricky wasn't the biggest or most athletic SG, but he was an efficient scorer and 2-time 6th Man of the Year. Several seasons at or around 20 PPG, even though he was only a starter for 2 full seasons in his 16-year career.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... cri01.html

Hmm, interesting. But Paul Pierce? No, I don't think so.

[Benjammin]

One thing that has not been mentioned too often is the hope (perhaps misguided) of the development of the Wizards young guys (McGee, Blatche, McGuire, Young, Critt, Pech yeah sure). The problem with that scenario is that even best case that will take a few more years and by then the window of opportunity might be closing. I do believe that trying to achieve cross purposes simultaneously with the hope of maintaining some flexibility is problematic.

I think so much of this always goes back to the "big 3". They're being paid as if they were the trio that should allow the Wizards to contend seriously but realistically they're not going to pull that off. They're good enough to maybe get to the second round of the playoffs, but not any farther. Jamison and Butler are simply a poor tandem defensively and that will not change. Having to keep both Jamison and Butler means the Wizards will always be poor defensively at the forward spots. Butler on his own can be adequate but playing with Jamison does not help him. We don't know how Arenas will play or if he will hold up. Assuming Gil is healthy (a big if), I would build around him as the cornerstone offensive piece and Haywood as the defensive anchor. They both with good health should be effective players for another four years I would think. Then I would evaluate how to configure the assets of Jamison and Butler with our other pieces as the team is re-built. I don't see this happening because management wants to believe they have a contender and they are emotionally attached to Jamison and don't want to make the hard choices that will likely mean the Wizards will need to re-build over the next few years.

[clubbing_caveman]

After a 4 mile run and a good nights rest, I have come to accept our #5 pick. I still think we should trade it. I'm not a cap guru and I sure dont know about keeping trades equal for all parties involved like some do on this board. However, I do know what I wish for... I wish we could trade the #5 and move down in the draft. There has to be another big man in the draft that we can take a chance on. I wish we could trade Etan and/or James and/or picks for a good PG in whom Flip Saunders can trust. I say this because I dont think GA will turn into a Saunders type of PG which GA may want to be. He will be a SG in Saunders system. Saunders needs a veteran PG who he trusts to run the team. I dont think we have 1 year to experiment with GA running the point. This team has maybe 3 years to make a run at the championship. We also need one more good player to pair up with either the bench team or insert into our starting lineup. VC and RH have been mentioned, and perhaps one is the answer...they are both good players with above average b-ball IQ. So trade the #5 + ET/James/OP/Deshawn/Song for a lower pick + something of value (a Saunders PG or VC or RH?). Use the lower pick on another big man. Turn whoever is left out of ET/James/OP/Deshawn/Song + future pick into whatever is left to get among a Saunders PG or VC or RH. Once again, I'm no cap guru. I dont know if this can even be done. But its my wish.