2012 NBA Draft

[The Consiglieri]

We need to come out of this offseason with 4 new starters that are either good or very good. At this point, I don't know that we have another starter besides Wall that can be classified in either category and that is the problem. Our 4 other starters right now are either serviceable or below that. That just won't cut it. Once we add our 4 good to very good starters, like CHI who surrounded Rose w/ good or very good players in year 3, Wall IMO can take that leap to being "franchise great". I think this is very possible given our cap flexibility and likely draft position. Here is my action plan to get this done:

1) Draft young PF stud that will be starter from Day 1 (my choice is Sullinger, Robinson 2nd)
2) Try to acquire the best avail RFA C in market in this order (HIbbert, Monroe, BLopez). If we whiff, possibly keep McGee for one year tender or get a stop gap via trade like Pekovic or Dalembert.
3) Get stud SG EGordon (i believe we'll be able to offer more than INDY and NO given their cap situation and need to sign their existing players)
4) Get a good FA SF like Batum or Chandler

This would be next year's starting lineup with how I would classify them next year in ( ):
PG-Wall (very good to great)
SG-Gordon (very good)
SF-Batum or Chandler (Good)
PF-Sullinger (Good to Very Good)
C- Range of worst case scenario of McGee (Serviceable) to best case scenario Hibbert (Very Good)

If you compare to CHI's team in Rose's 3rd yr, IMO our lineup would be close or on par with them in that year:
PG-Rose (great)
SG-Bogans/Korver (serviceable to good)
SF-Deng (good)
PF-Boozer (very good)
C-Noah (good)

You really see that happening? It feels like you think we can sweep through the FA market and grab 3 of the best 5 or 6 prizes. What do we have to sell them on exactly? Especially if much better, smarter, and talented teams are offering equal money? I picture us losing that battle in each free agent contest, I also cant think of any, or at least many teams that have ever flipped 4 starters in an offseason. I know we're consistently on opposite ends, and i respect your knowledge a ton and insights, but in terms of what actually happens in offseasons, especially for horrible teams, it just seems like pure fantasy that something like that could remotely happen. Maybe a great draftee and one quality signing, but the latter is a huge "maybe" at best.

[Severn Hoos]

It's really too bad that we didn't get Kanter last year (which we would have if we stayed in our slot instead of getting dumped in the Lottery...) While we're dreaming about Davis, it seems to me Kanter might be an ideal Big to pair up with him. And the UK connection with Wall would just be icing on the cake. Sigh.....

[daSwami]

Sev, per your lotto conspiracy theory, its pretty much a done deal that New Orleans will get the #1 overall, right? I just want to make sure I don't get my hopes up too high.

[The Consiglieri]

I think there is way too much money and winning or not winning associated with landing that pick to really suggest rigging is going on. I think the problem is that the percentages associated with your chances of landing different picks are the problem, they are well beyond asinine odds. If you're the 2nd worst team in the league, your most likely scenario shouldn't be 4th or lower, or whatever it is. Its the set up that's idiotic that causes the mess, not rigging (although rigging back in the Ewing draft might have happened, back then they could have gotten away with it, in today's media environment it would leak, and be far far far too damaging for them to get away with it).

We just need to be #1 or #2 worst to insure a top 5 pick, i think all of us can line up 4 guys that we would consider quality consolation prizes if we don't get Davis. The nightmare is finishing 3rd or 4th and potentially being in totally screwed territory.

[dobrojim]

Jimmy, this is the best year in recent memory to scout lotto talent because so much of it is condensed on marquee, oft-televised college teams and there are no Euro prospects. Here's who you should try to catch if you have time:

UConn (Drummond, Lamb)
Ohio State (Sullinger)
Baylor (Jones, Q Miller)
Carolina (Barnes, Zeller, Henson)
Kentucky (Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, T Jones)
Duke (Rivers)
Florida, (Beal)
Kansas (Robinson)

Illinois, Washington and Mississippt St, Vandy and Mizzou are worth watching too.

Thanks although I knew most of these player/team combos
from reading many of the informative posts in this thread.

What I was really after would be reminders

(because of CRS)

that this or that team
will be playing on this or that night, especially if there is a matchup
btw teams with multiple prospects playing each other.

observation about the above list - furthest west team is either
Baylor or Kansas. Nothing (as good?) happening west of there?
I guess that's a good thing if you're not a night owl that can stay
up late to watch games from the left coast.

[nate33]

We need to come out of this offseason with 4 new starters that are either good or very good. At this point, I don't know that we have another starter besides Wall that can be classified in either category and that is the problem. Our 4 other starters right now are either serviceable or below that. That just won't cut it. Once we add our 4 good to very good starters, like CHI who surrounded Rose w/ good or very good players in year 3, Wall IMO can take that leap to being "franchise great". I think this is very possible given our cap flexibility and likely draft position. Here is my action plan to get this done:

1) Draft young PF stud that will be starter from Day 1 (my choice is Sullinger, Robinson 2nd)
2) Try to acquire the best avail RFA C in market in this order (HIbbert, Monroe, BLopez). If we whiff, possibly keep McGee for one year tender or get a stop gap via trade like Pekovic or Dalembert.
3) Get stud SG EGordon (i believe we'll be able to offer more than INDY and NO given their cap situation and need to sign their existing players)
4) Get a good FA SF like Batum or Chandler

You really see that happening? It feels like you think we can sweep through the FA market and grab 3 of the best 5 or 6 prizes. What do we have to sell them on exactly? Especially if much better, smarter, and talented teams are offering equal money? I picture us losing that battle in each free agent contest, I also cant think of any, or at least many teams that have ever flipped 4 starters in an offseason. I know we're consistently on opposite ends, and i respect your knowledge a ton and insights, but in terms of what actually happens in offseasons, especially for horrible teams, it just seems like pure fantasy that something like that could remotely happen. Maybe a great draftee and one quality signing, but the latter is a huge "maybe" at best.

While I agree that we need 4 starters, it'll be real difficult to make it happen all in one offseason. If we are to make it happen, I think our best bet is to make some Trade Deadline deals. If the thinking is that we don't want McGee next year, then we should definitely try and trade him for a starting caliber player at the Trade Deadline (at an easier position to fill, like SG or SF). We also might be able to trade Blatche+Turiaf for an overpaid starting caliber player (Okafor, Lee, etc.). In both scenarios, guys like Singleton, Crawford and Vesely should be considered as sweetener.

If we can use our existing assets to acquire one good starter on a decent contract, plus one good overpaid starter, our task on Draft Day won't seem so daunting.

[Severn Hoos]

Sev, per your lotto conspiracy theory, its pretty much a done deal that New Orleans will get the #1 overall, right? I just want to make sure I don't get my hopes up too high.

naturally - all signs point to NOLA getting the #1 pick.

That said, since the league now OWNS the Hornets, giving them the #1 pick might be a bit too brazen even for Mr. Stern. At least we can hope as much.


[Really, though - if you were looking for conspiracies, it's all right there in winning the Lottery - Bulls the year after MJ retires, Cavs when the hometown hero is the obvious #1 and again the year after Lebron leaves, Wiz the year after Abe passes away, with Irene on stage to show her delight, plus Wiz #1 when MJ takes over, and so on. Likewise, The Clippers and Raptors get the pick when it's guys like Olowokandi, Bargnani - at least until the Clipps became cool and got Griffin...]

[REDardWIZskin]

Sev, per your lotto conspiracy theory, its pretty much a done deal that New Orleans will get the #1 overall, right? I just want to make sure I don't get my hopes up too high.

My 2 cents: I've narrowed it down to being between Charlotte and New Orleans getting the 1st pick. Jordan kind of established himself as "part of the crew" with the owners this past summer and he's done a lot for the league (mostly when he played but the league owes him some gratitude). New Orleans will have a new owner and really need to get people in the seats to start their franchise back on the right path.

[Illuminaire]

While I'd prefer to get back an unprotected lottery pick, even a meh one, I wonder if there's any chance NO swaps RFA's with us. If they're feeling like Gordon will field 12mil+ offers (quite possible), they might like an underachieving, high upside center who needs a change of scenery better. Especially considering that with his attitude and effort based regression, he's probably in the 5 year/40 million range now.

That was a very rambling, incoherent way of musing that a Gordon/Javale swap could work nicely for everyone involved.

[Illuminaire]

Sev, per your lotto conspiracy theory, its pretty much a done deal that New Orleans will get the #1 overall, right? I just want to make sure I don't get my hopes up too high.

naturally - all signs point to NOLA getting the #1 pick.

I'd put money on a Charlotte #1, NO #2 draft order.

[WizarDynasty]

Sorry, i wouldn't consider exchanges with Javale all he needs in an offseason of boxing and adding moe weight and just letting his mind continue to mature.
Now we should be talking about trading Kevin Seraphin who was actually picked at a higher slot than McGee. He has potential but he would should fetch us more than Javale since he was actually selected at a higher slot than javale.

[pancakes3]

He [Seraphin] has potential but he would should fetch us more than Javale since he was actually selected at a higher slot than javale.

Per that logic, Minny is sitting on a golden ticket in Darko, and we should flip Nick for two Manu's and a Blair.

[Illuminaire]

"Letting his mind continue to mature?"

I defended McGee at the start of the year, but his last set of games have been a putrid, inexcusable pool of poo. He has shown almost no consistent improvement from the BBIQ standpoint in four years.

He could still turn the corner, mature, get serious and become a great player. The chances of that happening have been dipping hard though, and I think we're at the point where the odds are stacked against him and selling high is probably better for the team.

[Tyrone Messby]

Have we drafted Anthony Davis yet?

[Earth2Ted]

Have we drafted Anthony Davis yet?

No, but the next Epic Vale might well be available to us in Andre Drummond- NBAdraft.net had put him in their 2013 draft with some fanfare citing "sources", and then quietly put him back in this year's with Calhoun on the shelf with back problems and the team imploding. Drummond's last game against Louisville: 18 minutes, 0 pts on 0-6 shooting, 4 rebounds- not good.

On a side note, how long has Louisville's home court been called the KFC YUM! Center? I know that's what the company calls itself, but dang...

[Dat2U]

"Letting his mind continue to mature?"

I defended McGee at the start of the year, but his last set of games have been a putrid, inexcusable pool of poo. He has shown almost no consistent improvement from the BBIQ standpoint in four years.

He could still turn the corner, mature, get serious and become a great player. The chances of that happening have been dipping hard though, and I think we're at the point where the odds are stacked against him and selling high is probably better for the team.

And considering Javale's value is probably at it's lowest right now, I'd expect Ernie Grunfeld to trade him at any moment. We all know how Ernie is great at finding that perfect time when desperation meets panic so we can get pennies on the dollar for our second best trade asset.

Well maybe at least we can have World Peace in DC.

[fugop]

Have we drafted Anthony Davis yet?

No, but the next Epic Vale might well be available to us in Andre Drummond- NBAdraft.net had put him in their 2013 draft with some fanfare citing "sources", and then quietly put him back in this year's with Calhoun on the shelf with back problems and the team imploding. Drummond's last game against Louisville: 18 minutes, 0 pts on 0-6 shooting, 4 rebounds- not good.

On a side note, how long has Louisville's home court been called the KFC YUM! Center? I know that's what the company calls itself, but dang...

The arena is new -- 2 years. We played in Freedom Hall for 30 years prior to that. It's an incredibly nice arena, better than many pro venues, certainly among the best in college basketball.

The name is ridiculous, but everyone just calls it The Bucket, which mitigates the crassness somewhat.

Gorgui Dieng is the real deal, by the way. He seriously sprained his ankle two days prior to the Connecticut game, and had no lift, but still outplayed Drummond, while getting six steals. I honestly think he's on a Hibbert-trajectory, with less offensive range and better defensive mobility. Should he stay another year, he'll be mid/high lottery pick.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

quick suggestion re the draft discussion

if there is a player you are discussing and you have some
knowledge of when they might next be on TV, post that info.

For instance Kentucky is playing Vandy on Sat night IIRC.
This would be a good opportunity to see all the UK guys
and this Jenkins kid also being mentioned.

some of us old guys need reminders as we suffer from CRS.

Heads up when you watch Vandy - also watch for Jeff Taylor - a more athletic and bigger wing than Jenkins who's greatly improved his jump shot - which used to be considered a major weakness of his. But he's a bit over-aged, so I'd rather have Jenkins..

I am looking forward to that game.

Another guy who is in some mocks, Vanderbilt C, Festus Ezeli, goes up against Anthony Davis.

[nate33]

And considering Javale's value is probably at it's lowest right now, I'd expect Ernie Grunfeld to trade him at any moment. We all know how Ernie is great at finding that perfect time when desperation meets panic so we can get pennies on the dollar for our second best trade asset.

When did EG trade a guy when his value was at a panic low?

[no D in Hibachi]

Kwame...but that was 7 years ago