Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza

[veji1]

You got the sunk cost part right.

Now the "two quality vets" (neither of whom fills the glaring need for shooting) is the issue, not to mention the opportunity cost. I fail to see how Ariza can be referred to as a quality vet. There is a reason this is his 6th team in 8 years.

Well I am sorry but Okafor and Ariza for 14,5 millions a year over only two years is a coup : that contract is short term, for a decent amount of money, and allows to be more competitive now while working on the growht of our young talent. What is not to like ?

[willbcocks]

I heard it's a player termination option, whereas Ariza's is a player option (or he has an opt out clause, can't remember which I read). It sounded like a difference in name only. Both have player options they would be fools (or wiser men than me) to decline.

[Nivek]

There are several ways to use cap space. The Wizards decided to spend all of it on Okafor and Ariza. I think that's a bad use of that cap room.

On another note, the more I read of Ted's blog, the more disenchanted I get with him. He talks a lot about transparency, I often find him to be misleading or downright dishonest in his comments. I wasn't impressed with Leroux's piece. It includes facts, but he glides over significant details that matter a lot. Like the fact that the Wizards could have had significant cap flexibility this offseason if Ted was willing to write some checks.

Rather than suggesting that those of us who think this is a bad trade don't know what we're talking about, just tell the truth about why the deal was made. They made this deal because Ted's losing money on the team and doesn't want to spend money to make guys go away. They made this deal because they hope to contend for a playoff spot next season -- the extra revenue from making the playoffs will help short-term and might sell some more tickets in following seasons.

And, as nate points out, the team has now made sure that they won't have cap flexibility next offseason either.

Ted's also good at sliding in qualifiers like, the team needed a VETERAN small forward. Really? What's so important about a veteran? Why not the word "good"? If all you need is a veteran, why not go out and sign Michael Finley? He's cheap, he's available and he's a veteran, right?

Anyway...I'm back in town for 7 hours and I'm already getting tired of talking about this. Vacation was better. I'm almost afraid to leave in July.

[tontoz]

What math do you use?

Lewis had 13 mil guaranteed left on his contract. Okafor has 27 mil and Ariza has 16 mil, as far as I know. I read somewhere that Okafor's last year might not be quaranteed. Does anyone know whether or not it is?

He has an ETO.

[veji1]

Rather than suggesting that those of us who think this is a bad trade don't know what we're talking about, just tell the truth about why the deal was made. They made this deal because Ted's losing money on the team and doesn't want to spend money to make guys go away. They made this deal because they hope to contend for a playoff spot next season -- the extra revenue from making the playoffs will help short-term and might sell some more tickets in following seasons.

Why are tons of you guys not interested in having a competitive team in town ?

Lots of posts I read are like "Title contender or bust"... Wow than 25 out of the 30 franchises in the league are not even worth supporting... there are fans throughout the world who support their team because it is their team , in their town, and it does its best. In lots of smaller markets fans don't even dream of a title. They support their team, when it plays hard and fights and does its best they are happy despite the hearbreaks of defeat, when they tank or play poorly they get mad... But they support their team.

This sort of "title or bust" mindset, with the incessant "OKC model" mantra are an unsustainable delusion that can only lead to bitterness for 25 out of the 30 fanbases in the NBA.

Next year the Wizards will be a team, a real team, that will play hard and defend and try to, you know, win games. Just be a bit happy with that.

[willbcocks]

The Houston example is relevant. guys don't realise how hard it is to sign a FA. A real Star will have 5 or 6 franchises who will have cleared capspace for them. Who will they chose between teams like the Mavs or Boston on one hand and the Wizards on the other??

Than you have second tier stars who will also get tons of money. Take Chicago. in 2010 they had space for 2 max deals, but Lebron and Bosh went to Miami and they ended up paying Boozer 80 mils... And we are not talking about a bottom dweller here, but about Chicago with Rose and Noah and Deng...

For the wizards at this stage to keep on building through the draft would be dangerous because it would imply remaining a bad team with the risk of rot that was starting to spread last season, and they cannot build through FAs yet because they are not an attractive destination and would have to massively overpay ( I am french and like Batum, but paying him 80/5 would be a dreadful decision and there is no way the Wizards get him for less, it might actually take more)..

So the only way in between are trades. They started doing it with Nene and continue with Okafor and Ariza. Not surprisingly, the young albeit talented knuckleheads that are McGee and Young yielded a better return than Lewis's overpriced corpse... But the staff are taking the only way possible short term.

Now medium term hopefully, if the team has become a solid defensive team sneaking into the playoffs à la Bobcats 2009 BUT with young players such as Wall, Beal and KS showing there mettle along the vets. than FAs might be interested... Or further trades might be possible whereby one of the young guys + some of the expirings can get you a disgruntled star...

You bring up a good counter-example to my preferred strategy: Houston. They have won a bunch of trades by getting more value, both through BOYDs and good drafting, and they have preserved flexibility for a while. Yet they find themselves in the middle of the pack.

I think their problem has been getting too many good assets and not focusing on getting elite assets (i.e., tanking for a few years). If CCJ were building a team through the draft and were forced to wear a muzzle when talking to opposing GMs (has anyone ever made better draft predictions and worse trade ideas?), it would look like Houston.

They also were screwed over by the league with the Chris Paul situation. Remember, they should have had Gasol and were trying to sign Nene. That might have been a formidable team, and clearly was Morey's plan to consolidate good assets into great (if note elite) ones.

I think it shows that even the best plan does not guarantee success in a league ruled by superstars.

[Nivek]

Last point for at least 5 minutes or so -- the problem with this trade is NOT that the Wizards used up their cap space. No one with a brain wants cap space for the sake of having cap space. The objection is to using their remaining cap space on THESE SPECIFIC PLAYERS.

Obviously, no one knows specifically what opportunities might have arisen in the future. I would have preferred to wait and see what some of those opportunities might have been instead of making this SPECIFIC trade.

And, if it came down to it, I think the team would have been on a better long-term rebuilding path if they'd spent the money to buy out Lewis and used the amnesty clause on Blatche.

[Nivek]

Rather than suggesting that those of us who think this is a bad trade don't know what we're talking about, just tell the truth about why the deal was made. They made this deal because Ted's losing money on the team and doesn't want to spend money to make guys go away. They made this deal because they hope to contend for a playoff spot next season -- the extra revenue from making the playoffs will help short-term and might sell some more tickets in following seasons.

Why are tons of you guys not interested in having a competitive team in town ?

Lots of posts I read are like "Title contender or bust"... Wow than 25 out of the 30 franchises in the league are not even worth supporting... there are fans throughout the world who support their team because it is their team , in their town, and it does its best. In lots of smaller markets fans don't even dream of a title. They support their team, when it plays hard and fights and does its best they are happy despite the hearbreaks of defeat, when they tank or play poorly they get mad... But they support their team.

This sort of "title or bust" mindset, with the incessant "OKC model" mantra are an unsustainable delusion that can only lead to bitterness for 25 out of the 30 fanbases in the NBA.

Next year the Wizards will be a team, a real team, that will play hard and defend and try to, you know, win games. Just be a bit happy with that.

Wait, you want fans of a professional sports team to be happy because their team is going to play hard and TRY to win games? On what planet should this not be the minimum expectation for a professional team?

Of course, I want the Wizards to try to win next season. I also want them to be competitive for more than a 7th or 8th seed for the next couple years and then face yet another rebuild.

[MDStar]

This debate has raged on and on and at this point pretty much is what it is. I get the cap flexibility argument and it makes sense. However when I look at the deals that Marcus Thornton (4 years, 33 mil), Thaddeous Young (5 years, 42 mil), Aaron Afflolo (5 years, 38 mil), Butler (3 years, 24 mil), David West (2 years, mil), and on and on, there is no reason to think that any move we made in the future would have been better that what we did. And that's not because EG is our GM but just because of the nature of Free Agency. Looking at my crystal ball, most NBA organizations don't make sound financial judgments, which is why the lockout happened in the first place. To think miraculously that we would have signed better players for better deals with the cap space is unfortunately not very realistic. In addition, we're talking about 2 year commitments. Not 4 to 5 years.

As many have pointed out, with management not wanting to pay Lewis to go away, the cap implications for this year are null. The issue is next year. I just assume they would rather wait to have cap space until they know what they have in Wall, Seraphin, Vesley, Singleton, (Beal or MKG) before deciding to build around them next off-season (2013) with a max free agent. With this trajectory, the team has an extra year of evaluation, Okefor and Ariza will be off the books, rookie contracts of the previous players mentioned can either be extended or renounced and we set ourselves up to make an informed decision during (2014).

[Rafael122]

So with the news of Harden wanting to stay with OKC, doesn't this whole "we need cap flexibility for free agents" argument seem moot now. He was pretty much 1 and 1A on our wish list right? IDK, I just think of 5-6 years ago when we had cap space and we signed Etan Thomas and Daniels to outrageous contracts. Just because we have the cap room doesn't mean we're gonna use it properly. I think when it got the point where we thought giving Illyasova $10 million per year based off one good year, I think by that point it was time to take a step back.

[DCZards]

Why are tons of you guys not interested in having a competitive team in town ?

Lots of posts I read are like "Title contender or bust"... Wow than 25 out of the 30 franchises in the league are not even worth supporting... there are fans throughout the world who support their team because it is their team , in their town, and it does its best.

This sort of "title or bust" mindset, with the incessant "OKC model" mantra are an unsustainable delusion that can only lead to bitterness for 25 out of the 30 fanbases in the NBA.

Next year the Wizards will be a team, a real team, that will play hard and defend and try to, you know, win games. Just be a bit happy with that.

+1

I also have no problem with Ted making a business decision designed to cut down on his financial losses and possibly increase his revenues. I think the trade (and trying to win now rather than later) is consistent with the Zards rebuilding plan. Others may prefer a different approach, but they don't own the team.

[veji1]

Wait, you want fans of a professional sports team to be happy because their team is going to play hard and TRY to win games? On what planet should this not be the minimum expectation for a professional team?

Of course, I want the Wizards to try to win next season. I also want them to be competitive for more than a 7th or 8th seed for the next couple years and then face yet another rebuild.

What I am saying is that fans have to be realistic in their hopes and expectations.. Wanting the FO to build a title contender in the space of 3 to 4 years (reasonnable timescale) is a reasonnable hope, but a very misguided expectation... out of 30 teams in the league only 5 or 6 teams are realistic title candidates.. Assuming a turnover ration of 1 team a year in that group, and even if no tems comes out and rejoins that group again, in the space of 5 years only 10 teams in the league will have a chance to contend for a title... should the rest of the teams just fold ?

At the stage the Wizards are at, fans should hope for more wins, for a functionning team, for a team playing sound basketball, for a good positive atmosphere in the arena because there will be no more knuckleheads to boo.. That is what fans should hope and what they should have expectations for.. you can also hope that from there the team builds up a good dynamic, that the draftee turns out to be quasi the best player in the draft, that Wall makes THAT leap, that in 2014 a superstar wants to sign here and that the team contends for a title startint g 2015... But don't get carried away.

Next year this team will look and play like one. players will have pride again, Wall will hold his head high, not slump. Let's enjoy that. This is not being content with mediocrity... When the Wizards spend 5 years in a row between 38 and 45 wins, sure you can complain about mediocrity and being stuck in the no man's land... But let's first try to get there !

[montestewart]

Rather than suggesting that those of us who think this is a bad trade don't know what we're talking about, just tell the truth about why the deal was made. They made this deal because Ted's losing money on the team and doesn't want to spend money to make guys go away. They made this deal because they hope to contend for a playoff spot next season -- the extra revenue from making the playoffs will help short-term and might sell some more tickets in following seasons.

Why are tons of you guys not interested in having a competitive team in town ?

Lots of posts I read are like "Title contender or bust"... Wow than 25 out of the 30 franchises in the league are not even worth supporting... there are fans throughout the world who support their team because it is their team , in their town, and it does its best. In lots of smaller markets fans don't even dream of a title. They support their team, when it plays hard and fights and does its best they are happy despite the hearbreaks of defeat, when they tank or play poorly they get mad... But they support their team.

This sort of "title or bust" mindset, with the incessant "OKC model" mantra are an unsustainable delusion that can only lead to bitterness for 25 out of the 30 fanbases in the NBA.

Next year the Wizards will be a team, a real team, that will play hard and defend and try to, you know, win games. Just be a bit happy with that.

That is a broad brush mischaracterization (using poorly mixed paints) of what most people opposed to this trade are saying. Nice painting though.

You can support your team and still question the intelligence, wisdom, sanity, etc. of its ownership/management, just as you can support your country and still question its leadership. The Wizards have not had a contender for thirty years. Not many franchises can make that claim. I've supported them through all that slop, and given them a lot of money.

I believe the idea of the "OKC model" was promoted by Leonsis himself, if not in name, then at least by the similarities in their "model" and his stated plan. Why wouldn't fans question what seem to be deviations from that plan, especially if they're not encouraged by the moves?

[Nivek]

So with the news of Harden wanting to stay with OKC, doesn't this whole "we need cap flexibility for free agents" argument seem moot now.

No.

a) that was never the argument in the first place; and

b) it does not follow that because the Wizards might not be able to sign a top-flight free agent that THIS SPECIFIC DEAL for these SPECIFIC players was a good one.

[veji1]

That is a broad brush mischaracterization (using poorly mixed paints) of what most people opposed to this trade are saying. Nice painting though.

You can support your team and still question the intelligence, wisdom, sanity, etc. of its ownership/management, just as you can support your country and still question its leadership. The Wizards have not had a contender for thirty years. Not many franchises can make that claim. I've supported them through all that slop, and given them a lot of money.

I believe the idea of the "OKC model" was promoted by Leonsis himself, if not in name, then at least by the similarities in their "model" and his stated plan. Why wouldn't fans question what seem to be deviations from that plan, especially if they're not encouraged by the moves?

Fair enough, I did'nt mean to be insulting to the fans, so hopefully you didn't take offense. But in the end what I mean is that the worse reaction such a trade should elicit should be "darn, we missed a good opportunity to rebuild faster and better".. But such a deal can in no way be seen as a "grave mistake" or "massive step back".. This deal isn't like signing an ineffecient super star to 120/5 years... It isn't like signing Batum to 90 or 80/5... It might not be ideal, but it is in no way dreadful.. compared to other trades or signings made in the past by the Bullets/Wiz it is a very reasonnable deal: disapointing to some sure, but reasonable.

[Induveca]

There are several ways than suggesting that those of us who think this is a bad trade don't know what we're talking about, just tell the truth about why the deal was made. They made this deal because Ted's losing money on the team and doesn't want to spend money to make guys go away. They made this deal because they hope to contend for a playoff spot next season -- the extra revenue from making the playoffs will help short-term and might sell some more tickets in following seasons..

As a business owner, I see where he is coming from. I could hope to hire away a top Google programmer after his contract ends next summer. While that's actually a possibility I need to increase revenue, retain existing customers via performance and attract new clientele NOW. If not, hiring some higher tier devs becomes even more unlikely.

Ted's "company" is at a tipping point. His employees were underperforming in comparison to competing "companies", and he was losing customers in droves as a result.

Young talent becomes at best misused, or at worst wasted in an environment without seasoned PEERS to learn from/respect. Coaches don't fall into that category........different type of dynamic. Completely different types of motivation.

You need a combo of elder managers and hardened/skilled employees to maximize your young employees.

[willbcocks]

Looking at my crystal ball, most NBA organizations don't make sound financial judgments, which is why the lockout happened in the first place. To think miraculously that we would have signed better players for better deals with the cap space is unfortunately not very realistic. In addition, we're talking about 2 year commitments. Not 4 to 5 years.

The cynic in me (and in recent years as a Wiz fan, he has begun to get the upper hand) would agree: we should applaud the move because it limits the capacity of EG to make even worse moves.

I have been that cynical before--for example, when we traded for Kip, part of why I was really happy with that move was that it precluded worse ones. I guess my antipathy for this move is that the alternative--simply not signing anyone--was so simple, and my expectations had built up slightly based on EG's record under Ted.

I guess I should return to cynicism, as it's easy to appreciate two year contracts we shouldn't have signed when comparing them to four year contracts we could have signed.

[verbal8]

The cynic in me (and in recent years as a Wiz fan, he has begun to get the upper hand) would agree: we should applaud the move because it limits the capacity of EG to make even worse moves.

It would not surprise me at all if there was a limit to 2 years on deals that EG was allowed to acquire.

I have been that cynical before--for example, when we traded for Kip, part of why I was really happy with that move was that it precluded worse ones. I guess my antipathy for this move is that the alternative--simply not signing anyone--was so simple, and my expectations had built up slightly based on EG's record under Ted.

Like the Hinrich deal, if this has a follow-up deal, it could be a lot better. If Okafor is dealt for a package of neutral value(I am thinking bad expirings and a pick or prospect), this would essential convert an empty payment to Lewis this year to the same money over 2 years for Ariza. If Ariza looks good, it might even save the Wizards some money(Ariza opting out).

Okafor really is the key to this deal. It could be terrible if Okafor is like he was last season. However if he plays closer to his career norms, it could work out decently for the Wizards.

The upside of the deal is a little because of the structure of the contracts. They both have player options for the final year, so if both players play to their prime levels, it limits the cheap production to one season.

[TheKingOfVa360]

Wait, you want fans of a professional sports team to be happy because their team is going to play hard and TRY to win games? On what planet should this not be the minimum expectation for a professional team?

Of course, I want the Wizards to try to win next season. I also want them to be competitive for more than a 7th or 8th seed for the next couple years and then face yet another rebuild.

What I am saying is that fans have to be realistic in their hopes and expectations.. Wanting the FO to build a title contender in the space of 3 to 4 years (reasonnable timescale) is a reasonnable hope, but a very misguided expectation... out of 30 teams in the league only 5 or 6 teams are realistic title candidates.. Assuming a turnover ration of 1 team a year in that group, and even if no tems comes out and rejoins that group again, in the space of 5 years only 10 teams in the league will have a chance to contend for a title... should the rest of the teams just fold ?

At the stage the Wizards are at, fans should hope for more wins, for a functionning team, for a team playing sound basketball, for a good positive atmosphere in the arena because there will be no more knuckleheads to boo.. That is what fans should hope and what they should have expectations for.. you can also hope that from there the team builds up a good dynamic, that the draftee turns out to be quasi the best player in the draft, that Wall makes THAT leap, that in 2014 a superstar wants to sign here and that the team contends for a title startint g 2015... But don't get carried away.

Next year this team will look and play like one. players will have pride again, Wall will hold his head high, not slump. Let's enjoy that. This is not being content with mediocrity... When the Wizards spend 5 years in a row between 38 and 45 wins, sure you can complain about mediocrity and being stuck in the no man's land... But let's first try to get there !

I agree, let's take a step in the right direction. You have to crawl before you ball! Let's first get in the playoffs then we can be a young team with a great future. From there we can add pieces.

[tontoz]

And that's not because EG is our GM but just because of the nature of Free Agency.

It isn't just about free agency.

How do you think the Cavs got Irving?