Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[tontoz]

I don't get the VO love at all. If he came out last year it is borderline that he would have even been a first rounder. If he was the "most talented" player in this draft i would think it would have shown up before his 3rd season.

There is no chance i would even consider him. He doesn't have the size to play the 3. He doesn't have the skills to play the point. He isn't as good a prospect at the 2 as Beal. Why spend the 3rd pick on a guy to be Beal's backup?

[Nivek]

Can someone explain what the ceiling of Oladipo even looks like though?

Because I have a hard time believing a third year college guard who scored under 14 PPG for his college career is going to blow up on offense in the NBA.

For him to have all of those offensive tools his production is pretty weak.

Why do you keep using per game stats?

This season, Oladipo averaged 19.2 points per 40 minutes. Here are the players who show up as similar to Oladipo in my statistical doppleganger machine, along with their points per 40 minutes:

- Vince Carter (JR) -- 20.0
- Jason Richardson (SO) -- 20.7
- Grant Hill (JR) -- 22.8
- Grant Hill (SO) -- 18.5
- Vince Carter (SO) -- 18.9

These guys seemed okay on offense in the NBA.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

OKC took a bench player and filled a need with Harden. Now he could have started for them, but I think their vision was for him to settle in to a 6th man role.

I don't think there's any reason to get hung up on if the player we're drafting is a bench player or a starter. I don't think anyone we draft this year will start from Day 1. What's more important is will our draft pick be able to play 25-30 minutes a night? In Oladipo's case, the answer would be yes. He'd get minutes behind Beal and minutes at the 3.

If Beal becomes an adequate ball handler/facilitator, then Oladipo could play some SG with Ariza at SF. Trevor is a very good passer who can be an effective point forward in short stretches. A unit with those three could have elite defensive potential.

[Nivek]

I don't get the VO love at all. If he came out last year it is borderline that he would have even been a first rounder. If he was the "most talented" player in this draft i would think it would have shown up before his 3rd season.

Well, it did -- at least in YODA. In YODA, he rated as a late lottery pick as a freshman and as a sophomore. He took a BIG step forward as a junior.[/quote]

[nuposse04]

^Is it fair to make such an assumption his efficiency would be maintained with a heavier workload?

Your analysis of him leads me to believe you think he's 1st option quality...which is HIGHLY...non believable to me. How would he score in half court sets? I don't think he could consistently hit shots unless he is WIDE open.

[verbal8]

Can someone explain what the ceiling of Oladipo even looks like though?

Because I have a hard time believing a third year college guard who scored under 14 PPG for his college career is going to blow up on offense in the NBA.

For him to have all of those offensive tools his production is pretty weak.

Why do you keep using per game stats?

This season, Oladipo averaged 19.2 points per 40 minutes. Here are the players who show up as similar to Oladipo in my statistical doppleganger machine, along with their points per 40 minutes:

- Vince Carter (JR) -- 20.0
- Jason Richardson (SO) -- 20.7
- Grant Hill (JR) -- 22.8
- Grant Hill (SO) -- 18.5
- Vince Carter (SO) -- 18.9

Not a similar player, but Arenas as a freshman averaged 19.1/40 minutes. He increased his scoring rate to 22/40 his sophmore year. In his prime Arenas' scoring per 40 was in the mid-20s in the NBA.

A player I see as having more similarities(but still some signifcant differences) - Andre Iguodala - had a nearly identical scoring output per 40 in college and was in the high teens. However Iguodala has never really had a reliable outside shot.

[Dark Faze]

Can someone explain what the ceiling of Oladipo even looks like though?

Because I have a hard time believing a third year college guard who scored under 14 PPG for his college career is going to blow up on offense in the NBA.

For him to have all of those offensive tools his production is pretty weak.

Why do you keep using per game stats?

This season, Oladipo averaged 19.2 points per 40 minutes. Here are the players who show up as similar to Oladipo in my statistical doppleganger machine, along with their points per 40 minutes:

- Vince Carter (JR) -- 20.0
- Jason Richardson (SO) -- 20.7
- Grant Hill (JR) -- 22.8
- Grant Hill (SO) -- 18.5
- Vince Carter (SO) -- 18.9

These guys seemed okay on offense in the NBA.

maaaaan

When you extrapolate stats to the rate at which you're doing with Oladipo...that's highly highly questionable to me for a number of reasons. If a guy were capable of playing 40 minutes of a game while keeping the same level of efficiency, don't you think he'd do that?

And I don't see any comparison between Oladipo and Hill from a year to year basis. Grant Hill as a soph averaged more points than Dipo did as a JR, he shot 61% from the field as a soph compared to Oladipos 47% as a soph, I could go on and on.

J-Rich and Hill were simply much better college players than Oladipo. The Vince Comparison is the only one I think has merit, but Vince being 6'6 with his athleticism made a huge difference with his upside.

[stevemcqueen1]

Porter is the safe pick and the obvious pick and a solid pick that I can't complain about - and I won't complain if he is the pick. But I'd still pick Zeller, because I think he's as good a PF/C prospect as Porter is a SF prospect - and I'd almost always take a PF/C over a 3 - all other things being equal.

May sound strange, but I think Porter's upside is a little higher than Zeller's. That even though Zeller is clearly the better athlete and is just as squeaky clean.

But I think Porter has higher potential as a scorer and I think he's a better defender. I think Porter has the potential of being a great defender too.

But I'm also finding that I don't feel Porter is as high floor as universally claimed. I think he's got some significant growing to do before he can be an impactful SF. First he has got to gain muscle bulk and strength in his legs. He has got to be able to fight through screens and fight through contact to finish at the rim to be a good offensive and defensive player. That's kind of minimal.

And I think it's also minimal that he develops the ability to be a knock down shooter off one or two dribbles. If he can't do that, he'll never be more than a role player offensively because he will not have the tools to be a perimeter shot creator in the NBA. Right now, his percentages off the dribble were awful and indicate it's a hole in his game currently.

I think those are both things he can certainly develop in time. James Harden struggled shooting off the dribble in college. But until he does, it's something you're going to have to think about.

Also I think Zeller has specific skill holes too. I think both have a lot more room to grow than people give them credit for. And I think one of those two would be my pick at 3 assuming Noel goes first and a guard goes second. I'd like to see us come away with one of those two, or I'd like to see us trade for DeMarcus Cousins.

[Nivek]

maaaaan

When you extrapolate stats to the rate at which you're doing with Oladipo...that's highly highly questionable to me for a number of reasons. If a guy were capable of playing 40 minutes of a game while keeping the same level of efficiency, don't you think he'd do that?

It's not an extrapolation if the guy played more than 40 total minutes. It's his average points scored per 40 minutes played. The same way earned run average in baseball is a pitcher's average earned runs allowed per 9 innings pitched.

Players don't control how many minutes they get -- coaches do. All players can do is be productive in the time they get. Oladipo was an above-average producer overall in his first two college seasons, and then a significantly above-average producer as a junior. That doesn't guarantee he'll be a great NBA player, of course. But there's really no getting around how productive he was as a junior.

[Dark Faze]

My point though Nivek, is that efficiency has to be taken next to the context in which its used.

Efficiency is a stat that becomes more reliable the more data you have. It's not unlike three point shooting accuracy in that regard.

I feel I'm rightly skepticle of a third year player who's usage was probably less than or equal to any other player in the lottery as a junior, let alone any all-stars in the NBA right now.

[stevemcqueen1]

maaaaan

When you extrapolate stats to the rate at which you're doing with Oladipo...that's highly highly questionable to me for a number of reasons. If a guy were capable of playing 40 minutes of a game while keeping the same level of efficiency, don't you think he'd do that?

It's not an extrapolation if the guy played more than 40 total minutes. It's his average points scored per 40 minutes played. The same way earned run average in baseball is a pitcher's average earned runs allowed per 9 innings pitched.

Players don't control how many minutes they get -- coaches do. All players can do is be productive in the time they get. Oladipo was an above-average producer overall in his first two college seasons, and then a significantly above-average producer as a junior. That doesn't guarantee he'll be a great NBA player, of course. But there's really no getting around how productive he was as a junior.

There point was that there is a significant challenge that goes with playing star minutes (and by extension, playing the star role) that goes completely unaccounted for when you extrapolate the actual per game numbers for VO to per 40 numbers.

I think a big part of VO's crazy efficiency comes from him being the second best player on a great team playing a somewhat limited role with limited minutes. And a big part of what makes Oladipo attractive is his crazy efficiency.

I know you've said playing for such a great team and playing with Zeller actually hurts Dipo because he has to fight for scoring opportunities and rebounds, which is undoubtedly true. But I think the net effect of playing with Zeller was a major positive that covered up potential holes.

Zeller was the one commanding double and triple teams, not Dipo. And Zeller was probably one of the most doubled players in the country, there were games where he saw a double almost every time he touched it. I can think of no way to quantify how valuable the experience of having to deal with a constant double team is to prepare you for the NBA. But I suspect it's probably incredibly valuable.

And keeping his minutes down and his offensive workload light absolutely helped Oladipo shine on defense--the reputation for D is another part of his game that makes him so attractive. But what's going to happen to his D if he goes to an NBA team with bad interior defenders, and he has to play 36+ minutes a night and be the first option on offense?

[pancakes3]

So it's not really the per40 numbers that you're worried about but rather the lack of volume (especially on 3's) for VO. I'm worried about that too. I think Igoudala is a good comparison, knowing that VO is a better shooter. Not a bad ceiling, or projection. However MKG was/is projected to be an Iggy-type player too. Maybe VO will live up to expectations quicker but that's the caliber type player I'm expecting. Average.

[hands11]

Can someone explain what the ceiling of Oladipo even looks like though?

Because I have a hard time believing a third year college guard who scored under 14 PPG for his college career is going to blow up on offense in the NBA.

For him to have all of those offensive tools his production is pretty weak.

Its more about net pts and efficiency and winning.

You know he is a top defender. That's a given. And that's pretty huge these days.
He can drive, has some handles and he has improved his shooting range to the 3 line. He gets loose balls and rebounds. He gets to the line. All around production on both sides of the ball and scoring efficiency.

Thats winning basketball.

If you like Otto, he is the more athletic version of that at SG/SF instead of SF/PF while not being light in the paints.

[Nivek]

My point though Nivek, is that efficiency has to be taken next to the context in which its used.

Really? Hmm, gotta make a note of that one.

Efficiency is a stat that becomes more reliable the more data you have. It's not unlike three point shooting accuracy in that regard.

Umm, really? Man, I'm learning soooo much today.

I feel I'm rightly skepticle of a third year player who's usage was probably less than or equal to any other player in the lottery as a junior, let alone any all-stars in the NBA right now.

I'm not going to tell you not to be skeptical. It's good to be skeptical of the numbers -- just as it's good to be skeptical of the so-called "eye test" (which, for a lot of fans is basically watching some highlights videos on YouTube).

I'm not quite sure why you're so hung up on usage. But...Over his 3 years at Indiana, Oladipo used 15.9 possessions per 40 minutes. That's on the low side. Way less than such luminary pros as Jimmer Fredette, Gerardo Suero, Morris Almond, Harold Miner, Courtney Alexander (top 5 SGs in my database in possessions used per minute). Of the top 10 in usage, Ray Allen is the only SG who checks in as a quality NBA player. Extend to the top 20, and we add Richard Hamilton, Michael Redd (although that was as a freshman, and his efficiency was AWFUL). Extend to the top 30 and we add Evan Turner, Grievis Vasquez, and Klay Thompson. Jordan (JR) ranks 32nd in usage among SGs (about 5.8 possessions per 40 minutes more than Oladipo). I don't think anyone's comparing Oladipo to Jordan, though.

Go top 40, and we add Jordan, Ben Gordon, JJ Redick, Brandon Roy and Jordan Crawford.

Top 50 adds Juan DIxon (SO) and Randy Foye (SR). Harden (SO) was 68th.

Anyway...

For his career, Oladipo shot .585 on 612 2pt attempts; .338 on 142 3pt attempts, and .716 on 359 FTA. For all three seasons combined, he averaged per 40 minutes 8.4 rebounds (elite rebounding for a SG), 2.7 assists (about average for a SG), 0.9 blocks (very good for a SG), 2.5 steals (very good for a SG).

His turnovers (3.2 per 40 minutes) were a little high, as were his fouls. But, his shooting (when looking at his full career) would seem acceptable, his overall offensive efficiency is acceptable, AND he's a terrific rebounder and a good defender. Oh yeah, he also tested out as an elite athlete.

If I combine all 3 seasons in YODA (rather than taking his final year as The Season), he still rates as a top 5 pick in nearly any draft. The guy's a good player. He'll likely be a good pro for whoever picks him. He may not be a big time scorer, but the numbers suggest he'll be efficient on offense and that he'll rebound and defend effectively. That doesn't necessarily make him the right pick for the Wizards. But the production combined with the athleticism suggests a guy who will be a very effective NBA player.

[tontoz]

My big problem with Dipo is that he would be the 2nd best sg on the roster, without the versatility to play other positions. The fact that he made only 48 3 pointers in 3 seasons is a concern but secondary.

The only two guys on the roster that we have to consider when making the pick are Wall and Beal. Unless there is a Tier 1 talent available at their positions i don't see any reason to draft a guard at 3.

[AFM]

i would do a trade with utah to get jefferson and move down to utah pick and give up either nene or okafor but really get jefferson.
Jefferson should boost the value of the franchise by 100 million and immediately gets us deep in playoffs.

Before going specific, you were shrouded in a seductive mist of authority, perhaps an abstract stratagem of adamantine ascendance lay dormant amid the parlor smoke of your musings; if only we would listen to the shadowed savant. If only we’d listen.

After the Al Jefferson suggestion……you a sav’ain’t, Wiz D, you a sav’ain’t.

Never, I repeat, NEVER post anything negative about WizD. GPOAT (Greatest Poster Of All Time)

[Nivek]

There point was that there is a significant challenge that goes with playing star minutes (and by extension, playing the star role) that goes completely unaccounted for when you extrapolate the actual per game numbers for VO to per 40 numbers.

Wow. There is NO EXTRAPOLATION INVOLVED. No one is saying that Oladipo would average X points per game IF HE PLAYED 40 MINUTES PER GAME. Oladipo this season played 1021 minutes. That's 25.5 40-minute sequences. All the "per 40" part does is put the numbers in a format that's easier to digest than 0.481 points per minute.

I think a big part of VO's crazy efficiency comes from him being the second best player on a great team playing a somewhat limited role with limited minutes. And a big part of what makes Oladipo attractive is his crazy efficiency.

Yep, the efficiency is indeed a significant part of what gives Oladipo a good score and makes him an attractive prospect. Also his terrific rebounding and outstanding defense.

Does anyone think that Oladipo is somehow physically unable to have played more than 28.4 mpg?

I guess it would've been better if he'd missed more shots this season. Then he'd have more potential. Or something.

[Nivek]

My big problem with Dipo is that he would be the 2nd best sg on the roster, without the versatility to play other positions. The fact that he made only 48 3 pointers in 3 seasons is a concern but secondary.

The only two guys on the roster that we have to consider when making the pick are Wall and Beal. Unless there is a Tier 1 talent available at their positions i don't see any reason to draft a guard at 3.

This is my concern as well. Picking Oladipo would give the Wizards a redundancy at a position I think is one of their few strengths. I wish either Oladipo or Beal had PG skills so the team could have a true 3 guard rotation.

[WizarDynasty]

AFM probably the all time great here on wizards board for humor and wit. Don't worry about anyone attacking me lol. My comments are always designed push posters here out of group think and tap into their true potential. everyone here wants the wizards to get deep into the playoffs which is why any perceived attack on me is usually pretty weak.
I don't think anyone here except for few have put as much mental time breaking the "code" of the wizards failures. Cracking the code is what makes it fun. My motto is, if you attack my stance, you better have a well thought out counter, because in the end, you will probably end up wrong. We are nothing but pretend gm's speculating on a billion dollar business. At the end of the day, all the nba players are pulling in millions, regardless if they make it deep into the nba playoffs or not.
If you have well thought out plan on how to wizards will become a top 4 team in the eastern conference, please provide the details. It all starts with above average rebounding bigman who can also drop 20 a game consistently. Wizards don't have that and no on on this board has a plan of us getting that player. Which means failure as a pretend GM for the washington wizards. we already know Grunfeld can't do it, but can you do it in your free time as a hobby? Time will tell if you can for the new posters. The results of nba players speak for themselves. I just want to here the vision of how what the wizards need to compete and make it as a top four team. What are they missing and how will they get there in a year? Is your plan based on beal and wall being number one and number two options respectively? What are the details. That's what goes on in a actual REal GM's mind? Let's here.

[hands11]

maaaaan

When you extrapolate stats to the rate at which you're doing with Oladipo...that's highly highly questionable to me for a number of reasons. If a guy were capable of playing 40 minutes of a game while keeping the same level of efficiency, don't you think he'd do that?

It's not an extrapolation if the guy played more than 40 total minutes. It's his average points scored per 40 minutes played. The same way earned run average in baseball is a pitcher's average earned runs allowed per 9 innings pitched.

Players don't control how many minutes they get -- coaches do. All players can do is be productive in the time they get. Oladipo was an above-average producer overall in his first two college seasons, and then a significantly above-average producer as a junior. That doesn't guarantee he'll be a great NBA player, of course. But there's really no getting around how productive he was as a junior.

There point was that there is a significant challenge that goes with playing star minutes (and by extension, playing the star role) that goes completely unaccounted for when you extrapolate the actual per game numbers for VO to per 40 numbers.

I think a big part of VO's crazy efficiency comes from him being the second best player on a great team playing a somewhat limited role with limited minutes. And a big part of what makes Oladipo attractive is his crazy efficiency.

I know you've said playing for such a great team and playing with Zeller actually hurts Dipo because he has to fight for scoring opportunities and rebounds, which is undoubtedly true. But I think the net effect of playing with Zeller was a major positive that covered up potential holes.

Zeller was the one commanding double and triple teams, not Dipo. And Zeller was probably one of the most doubled players in the country, there were games where he saw a double almost every time he touched it. I can think of no way to quantify how valuable the experience of having to deal with a constant double team is to prepare you for the NBA. But I suspect it's probably incredibly valuable.

And keeping his minutes down and his offensive workload light absolutely helped Oladipo shine on defense--the reputation for D is another part of his game that makes him so attractive. But what's going to happen to his D if he goes to an NBA team with bad interior defenders, and he has to play 36+ minutes a night and be the first option on offense?

You make valid points about Zellers experience but what does that have to do with VO in the NBA ? You draft him because you want him to play his game, not turn him into Nick Young.

He would play about the same or less minutes that he did in college in the NBA and play the same role.

No, he is not a ball dominate #1 scorer like Shabbazz. I find that to be a good thing.

Sounds like you want to make the argument that Zeller would be the better pick. Thats fine. You started to make that case. Probably best to stick to that instead of trying your line of logic against VO.