Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[Dark Faze]

The thing with Oladipo is that he's being drafted almost completely based off of scoring efficiency despite low usage.

In comparison that's like drafting a guy to stretch the floor as a hyper efficient shooter in college despite him only having 30 attempts.

And all of this is assuming Oladipos effiency transfers over 1 for 1 to the NBA, which is highly unlikely. If he takes a modest notch off of his effiency, is he even worth the MLE to a team, let alone as a guy you pick with a top 5/6 pick?

[hands11]

i would do a trade with utah to get jefferson and move down to utah pick and give up either nene or okafor but really get jefferson.
Jefferson should boost the value of the franchise by 100 million and immediately gets us deep in playoffs.

Before going specific, you were shrouded in a seductive mist of authority, perhaps an abstract stratagem of adamantine ascendance lay dormant amid the parlor smoke of your musings; if only we would listen to the shadowed savant. If only we’d listen.

After the Al Jefferson suggestion……you a sav’ain’t, Wiz D, you a sav’ain’t.

Never, I repeat, NEVER post anything negative about WizD. GPOAT (Greatest Poster Of All Time)

???

[Ruzious]

The thing with Oladipo is that he's being drafted almost completely based off of scoring efficiency despite low usage.
In comparison that's like drafting a guy to stretch the floor as a hyper efficient shooter in college despite him only having 30 attempts.

And all of this is assuming Oladipos effiency transfers over 1 for 1 to the NBA, which is highly unlikely. If he takes a modest notch off of his effiency, is he even worth the MLE to a team, let alone as a guy you pick with a top 5/6 pick?

That's not true. He's been compared to Tony Allen for his defense - and Allen is arguably the best wing defender in the NBA. Tony Allen with a consistent jump shot would be an outstanding player.

[Ruzious]

Before going specific, you were shrouded in a seductive mist of authority, perhaps an abstract stratagem of adamantine ascendance lay dormant amid the parlor smoke of your musings; if only we would listen to the shadowed savant. If only we’d listen.

After the Al Jefferson suggestion……you a sav’ain’t, Wiz D, you a sav’ain’t.

Never, I repeat, NEVER post anything negative about WizD. GPOAT (Greatest Poster Of All Time)

???

Well, second to you of course.

[fishercob]

The thing with Oladipo is that he's being drafted almost completely based off of scoring efficiency despite low usage.
In comparison that's like drafting a guy to stretch the floor as a hyper efficient shooter in college despite him only having 30 attempts.

And all of this is assuming Oladipos effiency transfers over 1 for 1 to the NBA, which is highly unlikely. If he takes a modest notch off of his effiency, is he even worth the MLE to a team, let alone as a guy you pick with a top 5/6 pick?

That's not true. He's been compared to Tony Allen for his defense - and Allen is arguably the best wing defender in the NBA. Tony Allen with a consistent jump shot would be an outstanding player.

Agreed.

The other piece that concerns me with Oladipo is the huge spike in his shooting efficiency this season. Someone -- I believe Nivek -- had mentioned that shooting efficiency is the most variable metric from year to year. So maybe it isn't sustainable. Or maybe it is.

[hands11]

My big problem with Dipo is that he would be the 2nd best sg on the roster, without the versatility to play other positions. The fact that he made only 48 3 pointers in 3 seasons is a concern but secondary.

The only two guys on the roster that we have to consider when making the pick are Wall and Beal. Unless there is a Tier 1 talent available at their positions i don't see any reason to draft a guard at 3.

This is my concern as well. Picking Oladipo would give the Wizards a redundancy at a position I think is one of their few strengths. I wish either Oladipo or Beal had PG skills so the team could have a true 3 guard rotation.

I feel pretty confident Beal will show improved handles. He is focused on it and I don't see any reason to think he wont achieve his goal. And its not like VO has weak handles. He has ok ball handling skills. Still needs lots of work though.

And he may be a SG, but he makes drives like a SF. What VO does could actually help keep Beal healthier by providing driving, rebounding and defense while Beal rests. That can save Beal some pounding if someone else can provide those things, he won't need to take as many chances himself knowing its coming off the bench.

When I think of their 3 guard rotation, I think of either VO or CJM. CJM is more the scorer/PG. VO is more the defender/physical player that more athletic. Plays more like a SG/SF. CJM is more a PG/SG

And if you put Temple and VO out there, there is some nasty perimeter defense and that is what take teams out of their offense and makes them work from a short shot clock.

Wall and Beal followed by Temple, VO and Trevor A. Thats a lot of perimeter D. I expect they would generate a good deal of turnovers and easy fast break points. Any combination of those players set up great perimeter defense.

And the Wizards have started to define themselves as a defensive team. Otto is a good defender as well, but does he do anything defensively that Trevor A doesn't already do ? And adding Otto puts into question Webster as a starter and I like what Webster has done when out there with

Wall, Beal, Webster, Nene and Okafor. Its hard for me to see Otto being as effective as Webster was hitting the 3 in the NBA.

But Otto could work. So could Zeller. So could Len. Should be interesting to see what they do. I just hope they don't break anything while trying to make it better.

Wall, Beal, Webster, Nene and Okafor was a very good line up. 10th in net pts and had a great winning record.

[Nivek]

I'm not assuming Oladipo's offensive efficiency makes a 1-for-1 transfer to the NBA. For one thing, NBA defenses are a lot better than college. And, I wouldn't draft him strictly for his offensive efficiency any more than I would draft DJ Stephens or Oriakhi or Scott Bamforth. I'd draft him for a combination of reasons, which include his offensive efficiency, his outstanding rebounding, his superior defense and his elite athleticism.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

So in the end, he's telling us what most of us already know. Porter is very likely to be a solid all-around contributor. Might even make an All-Star game or two (which is often a function of who's hurt, who's having an off year / career year, and who's in which conference at a given position). Porter looks like the entire Pacers roster to me - guys who are great team players, solid at multiple aspects of the game, high IQ, won't cause you to lose a game or a series. Will he win games for you? hard to say. But it reminds me of Nick Young. No question, Nick won that playoff game for the Clipps last year, and by extension, the series. But I still would rather have a solid guy who you know what you're getting night-in and night-out over the hope of a "game-changer" that may or may not pan out.

I don't think he's necessarily dissing Bennett, McLemore, or anyone else with more "upside". He's just quantifying the risk associated with those guys and weighing it against the more likely contribution from a guy like Porter. Of course, given that Porter is so young - still just 19, probably would have been held back a la Shabazz if he had been groomed by the AAU circuit from his youth, meaning he'd just be finishing his Freshman year - he has some upside left too, IMO.

For me, Porter's the clear pick. The only reason to be wary is Deepalotta's concerns around roster fit down the road. But surely this board wouldn't argue Fit over BPA, would they?

Excellent points, I'm getting closer to saying Porter is the clear pick as well. There are too many positives that he brings to the table. You know your getting high IQ, high energy and incredibly mature player with ideal size & the requisite athleticism for the SF position. You know your likely getting a quality NBA starter at a position that severly lacks starpower around the league. I think there's a very good chance, much like Beal and much like recent all-star Paul George, that Porter will be a top 5 player at this position because of the overall lack of depth on the wings in the NBA.

I think Porter is really a can't lose proposition.

Porter feels like a can't lose unless continuity disappears and he is counted on to produce immediately. If Webster signs elsewhere, suddenly a guy like Chris Singleton could be competing at stretch 4 and at 3 with rookie Porter. A veteran coach in win- now mode could pressure Otto. That is the worst-case possible. Unlikely, but this is the WIzards. Maybe Otto comes in a steady starter like Beal was post-January of his rookie year.

I think Oladipo is a sure-thing. That guy is a stud at SG.

I will be happy if Porter is the pick but I can't get the thought out of my mind that Oladipo is going to blow up in the NBA.

Beal was a higher rated SG as a freshman than Oladipo as a sophomore. Still, I think Oladipo's season was superior to what even Beal is playing at now. I could be wrong, but I think Oladipo has star potential.

Does Porter?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Porter is the safe pick and the obvious pick and a solid pick that I can't complain about - and I won't complain if he is the pick. But I'd still pick Zeller, because I think he's as good a PF/C prospect as Porter is a SF prospect - and I'd almost always take a PF/C over a 3 - all other things being equal.

One thing is for sure if Zeller is the pick: he will score a lot of points. Wall could make Zeller a 16-20 point scorer right away.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

AFM probably the all time great here on wizards board for humor and wit. Don't worry about anyone attacking me lol. My comments are always designed push posters here out of group think and tap into their true potential. everyone here wants the wizards to get deep into the playoffs which is why any perceived attack on me is usually pretty weak.
I don't think anyone here except for few have put as much mental time breaking the "code" of the wizards failures. Cracking the code is what makes it fun. My motto is, if you attack my stance, you better have a well thought out counter, because in the end, you will probably end up wrong. We are nothing but pretend gm's speculating on a billion dollar business. At the end of the day, all the nba players are pulling in millions, regardless if they make it deep into the nba playoffs or not.
If you have well thought out plan on how to wizards will become a top 4 team in the eastern conference, please provide the details. It all starts with above average rebounding bigman who can also drop 20 a game consistently. Wizards don't have that and no on on this board has a plan of us getting that player. Which means failure as a pretend GM for the washington wizards. we already know Grunfeld can't do it, but can you do it in your free time as a hobby? Time will tell if you can for the new posters. The results of nba players speak for themselves. I just want to here the vision of how what the wizards need to compete and make it as a top four team. What are they missing and how will they get there in a year? Is your plan based on beal and wall being number one and number two options respectively? What are the details. That's what goes on in a actual REal GM's mind? Let's here.

Oh, yeah. I can do it and have been for years. Starting with not resigning Gil because he was injured, I could have done far better. I posted about Millsap literally a year-and-a-half before experts picked Shelden Williams #5. I probably posted 30 to 50 times about Kenneth Faried. Along with Dat and others, we posted about Seth Curry HUNDREDS of times. They traded for expiring Foye and Miller.

I know only a handful of elite teams win. They either have had Lebron with Wade and Bosh, Kobe with Shaq or Pau, Dirk with Chandler, KG with Pierce and Allen. The rest are also rans. Still, the Wizards went through IMO about five years of generally bad drafts and personnel moves from 2006-2011.

Last season they did well, but at what nate refers to as opportunity cost. They paid a lot of salary to veterans who have been role players. Yes, the culture changed. They need to make the playoffs and/or flip contracts. They stunted young players who got more playing time the season before. They also did not bid for guys like Ilyasova, Danny Green, Ryan Anderson, etc. Last, in true Wizards style they scapegoated young players as the cause of past failures.

I just play GM at home but I think I could do a whole lot better than the Wizards have done. So could at least a half dozen who post here.

[hands11]

The thing with Oladipo is that he's being drafted almost completely based off of scoring efficiency despite low usage.

In comparison that's like drafting a guy to stretch the floor as a hyper efficient shooter in college despite him only having 30 attempts.

And all of this is assuming Oladipos effiency transfers over 1 for 1 to the NBA, which is highly unlikely. If he takes a modest notch off of his effiency, is he even worth the MLE to a team, let alone as a guy you pick with a top 5/6 pick?

Its a weak draft at the top. I think you can, and we have, poked holes in all those top picks. Now one of them may end up shining such that they are worth the pick, but its far from a sure thing.

Hell, Wall didn't even look #1 worth until this year. Some of that was his fault. Some was the team in transition and some was bum luck to an injury. Beal came into a better situation and he was able to get settled in much more quickly. And since one of his skills was shooting, he really started to shine once the starters returned so he could settle in to what he does best.

But now we have a better team to bring players into. I expect any of Otto, VO, CJM, Len, Zeller to mesh with the team more quickly then projects brought to a team flipping half its core players every year like what Singleton, Booker, Ves and Kevin S came to.

Noel I dont see playing next year.
Shabbazz and Bennett I don't see mixing in smoothly. They don't fit like the names in the above list.

[hands11]

Never, I repeat, NEVER post anything negative about WizD. GPOAT (Greatest Poster Of All Time)

???

Well, second to you of course.

LOL

Ruz Ruz Ruz...

Thanks for keeping it light. I wasn't thinking that way when I typed the ??? but thats a funny response.

[closg00]

I am really torn right now between: Porter, Olidipo, & Zeller.

Porter - Excellent candidate to be the 3 of a Wiz Big-3. Porter is skinny, but he should fill-out out to be a stud SF in a couple of years.

Olidipo - Dwayne Wade comparisons and GM favorite, possible #1 pick in a draft redo 3 years from now.

Zeller - I don't believe the early bust-calls on Zeller, I think he would be a welcome addition to our front court. Zeller does everything that Vesely is afraid to do and more.

[hands11]

The thing with Oladipo is that he's being drafted almost completely based off of scoring efficiency despite low usage.
In comparison that's like drafting a guy to stretch the floor as a hyper efficient shooter in college despite him only having 30 attempts.

And all of this is assuming Oladipos effiency transfers over 1 for 1 to the NBA, which is highly unlikely. If he takes a modest notch off of his effiency, is he even worth the MLE to a team, let alone as a guy you pick with a top 5/6 pick?

That's not true. He's been compared to Tony Allen for his defense - and Allen is arguably the best wing defender in the NBA. Tony Allen with a consistent jump shot would be an outstanding player.

Agreed.

The other piece that concerns me with Oladipo is the huge spike in his shooting efficiency this season. Someone -- I believe Nivek -- had mentioned that shooting efficiency is the most variable metric from year to year. So maybe it isn't sustainable. Or maybe it is.

Well in his interview he comments it had to do with shot selection and confidence. Nothing wrong with improving your shooting percentage by take better shots.

I don't think anyone thinks he will be Wade. He isn't going to carry you offensively where you run the offense with the ball in his hands.

No way I like the #3 in this draft like I did Beal in last draft. This draft is mostly role players and projects.

[AFM]

I don't think VO has the handles necessary to be our 3rd guard. Our 3rd guard has to be a combo guard IMO. I like CJM over VO based on that reason alone.

[truwizfan4evr]

Can Bennett be a back to the basket type of player? I understand he can shoot the outside shot how good will his inside game be in NBA

[stevemcqueen1]

Hands, I view taking any player to play less than 30 minutes a game at #3 as a failed pick. A #3 pick is so high and valuable, you need to find someone who, if not a starter, plays starter's minutes.

The Harden situation in OKC is different from a VO situation in DC. Harden didn't have a stud in front of him blocking him from playing. Sefalosha was a defensive specialist who played fewer minutes than Harden, the Thunder just wanted Harden to play more on the second line because they already had so much scoring from Westbrook and Durant and needed defense with that unit more.

Harden has since proved he's an upper echelon starter. If you draft Oladipo, he will be a back up here for his entire career. That's a failure to effectively maximize a precious team building resource. The net benefit of drafting a marginally lesser starter would be much greater than drafting a reserve.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Man it just really drives me nuts that Ernie comment it's a 3 player draft!

It's just funny, because there's no clue who he's talking about. It could be any of Porter, Len, Zeller, Oladipo.


I mean I keep thinking he is referring to Porter because he was so big at Verizon Center this year, plus I know Ted is a GTown fan.

But I know he's been very high on Len for a while. And he's local I'm sure Ernie has seen tons of him. Plus him showing up at the Caps game.

Then again Oladipo is a local kid too. And I remember a point last year people were speculating Zeller could go #1.



I'd like to get one of those bathroom books of Ernie Grunfeld quotes throughout the years. Each quote with picture of Ernie with a really dumbfounded look on his face. They could actually throw plenty of Ted quotes. Or the Abe quote about Gar Heard blowing him away.

They could make toilet paper with the quotes on it. Now that's a good idea. Actually get something positive out of it.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Porter is the safe pick and the obvious pick and a solid pick that I can't complain about - and I won't complain if he is the pick. But I'd still pick Zeller, because I think he's as good a PF/C prospect as Porter is a SF prospect - and I'd almost always take a PF/C over a 3 - all other things being equal.

One thing is for sure if Zeller is the pick: he will score a lot of points. Wall could make Zeller a 16-20 point scorer right away.

I'm rethinking Zeller as well. I mean he tested so well at the combine, it really has relieved some of my concerns about him. He is so skilled, and he has a low post game. I think he could be very good at PF.

I have him moving up my Wizards board, with Bennett dropping. I'll also move Oladipo up a notch with Len a slight drop.

I would consider the 2nd rounder more position dependant on who we take at 3.

#3
Porter
Zeller
McCollum
Oladipo
Len
Bennett


#38
Muscala
Murphy
Green
Iverson
Hardaway Jr
McCallum

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Good writeup on Tony Mitchell. Maybe he's someone we should try to move up for.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/26/4 ... 013-pacers