Bradley Beal - Part II

[hands11]

Posted this on a different forum:

I think it's important to put Beal's age into context to appreciate how special he actually is.

Here is a comparison of the AS wings drafted since 2008 + Beal in their age 21 season. Except it's age 22 for Butler because he was still at Marquette at 21.

http://bkref.com/tiny/LiTCO

None of them were All Stars in their age 21 season, and Beal is the only one in his third year. His game compares pretty well to any of them in how complete it is, and DeRozan was the only one playing as many minutes and about as big a role for his team as Beal is.

Beal's one of the only one and done wings to actually end up being any good in a minute. The only one and done wings to make at least one AS appearance since they instituted the age limit are Durant and DeRozan. And DeRozan was a 20 year old rookie. Before them the only one and done wings in the past 15 years to make an AS game are Luol Deng, Melo, and Gerald Wallace. LeBron would be another of course, if he had gone to college for a year. As is, he was a 19 year old rookie. Luol Deng didn't make the AS game until his 8th and 9th seasons. Wallace made his first and only AS appearance in his 9th season.

LeBron made the AS game in his second season when he was 20. Durant made it in his third season when he was 21. Melo made it in his fourth season when he was 22. So basically if Beal makes it in his fourth season at age 22, only LeBron and Durant will have made it quicker.

I think Beal makes it next season. I think the lightbulb has turned on for him the past month regarding the level of aggression and activity he has to play with and the game is slowing down for him bit by bit. I think he's going through a similar phase of development as Paul George at the same age in terms of learning to handle the ball and trigger plays for the offense as well as be the volume scorer. Paul George was an AS in his age 22 season and then made a huge leap in his age 23 season. I think that's what we can realistically expect from Beal.

And really, most one and done wings don't end up being good. OJ Mayo, Eric Gordon, and Tyreke Evans ended up being pretty disappointing. Michael Beasley was a huge bust. Xavier Henry hasn't done anything in the NBA. Avery Bradley is good, but a role player who today isn't as good as Beal is. Austin Rivers was a big bust. Josh Selby and Archie Goodwin and Quincy Miller were three hyped up wings that got exposed before the draft and fell pretty far. None of them have done anything in the NBA. MKG is pretty disappointing. Mo Harkless is alright relative to the expectations he had coming in but he's nowhere near as good as Beal. Shabazz Muhammad got exposed some before his draft too, and though he's playing pretty well now, he's not nearly as good as Beal either. He's also a year older than Beal despite getting drafted a year later.

Beal is so far ahead of his peers in the NBA that none of them are actually considered his peers. He's also way ahead of most of the other wings that came into the league around him after two or more years of college, like Terrence Ross, Jeremy Lamb, Ben McLemore, Dion Waiters, Jimmer Fredette, Alec Burks, Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, and Al Farouq-Aminu.

Really the only other young wings drafted since 2010 that are good are Paul George, Klay Thompson, Gordon Hayward, Harrison Barnes, Jimmy Butler, and Kawhi Leonard. Those are roughly his peers, along with whoever ends up being good from the 2014 class. All of them except the 2014 draftees are older than Beal too.

I have a theory for why the bust rate on young wings is pretty high and why all but the generational talents like LeBron and Durant take so long to get good: wings have to score and it's hard to score well in the NBA. Wings have to be able to handle and shoot but also play defense and not stop the ball. Most of the guys that get drafted high can either shoot or dribble but not usually do both at a high level. It's usually the shooting that holds young players back. And most struggle on defense. So most have trouble locking down big roles for good teams over more polished vets. Beal was fortunate to get drafted by a team with a great high usage PG that could minimize his weaknesses handling the ball. And fortunate that his competition for SG minutes was light. And even still, he wouldn't be the second most important player on a potential 50 win team at age 21 if he didn't come in as a brilliant shooter with a pretty well rounded game. Beal is special and he's in the right situation to get him to reach his potential.

http://bkref.com/tiny/Zw6e1

I find this interesting. Try cumulative.

And this highlights the importance of putting vets around Wall and Beal so they got that playoff experience last year. As they will this year. Only this year, they will bring more dogs to the fight and past years experience.

[hands11]

Beal is one of the best young 3 pt shooters in a league, in a league that is shooting more 3 then ever and on a team that needs to generate more pts per possession and turn it over less.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/playe ... t/3-points

Interesting to see a board hatted draft favorite listed right below him... Harrison Barnes

Beal, Barnes, Khris Middleton, Kyrie Irving ... All young good 3 pt shooter. Beal one year younger then them.

Beal is getting up on average 4 attempts per game. What I would like to see is the team maximize that skill by making sure he gets that many up min.. EVERY GAME and for him to raise that number to about 6. I have written about this several time. Beal 6-8. Wall 3 to 4 depending on the night.

If they do that, and trim back his other offensive game except some drives
Dribble less as a set up player
Use him more in PnR and PnP if he is in a position to run the offense

I think he would be more efficient and our offense would be more efficient and the floor would be spread more for Wall to carve it up. Add WallStar that formula and you really do have a very nice 1/2 combination. One of if not the best young back court in the league.

Then you add Rasual Butler at #10 .433 and we should be one of the better 3 pt shooting teams. Specially when you also have Paul Pierce at #35 .382 and you still have Webster who was #38 last year at .392 and you have Gooden .364 who can stretch the floor. And you have a young Otto at 6-8 who is shooting the three at .353

This could see be a much better offensive team if Randy would tweak what Beal is doing
Adjust the line ups better to spread the floor by using Gooden more (way under utilized and could be the key to opening the floor)
and if can get Webster enough minutes to get hot again and then use him, I think we can score a lot more as a team.

As for Otto. I don't think you trade him. He projects to be a very flexible player who can play the 2 and 3 and maybe in time some 1 and 4. I say you keep developing him. Big SGs can be effective. Korver, Klay, Dudley.

As for the team.

POINTS PER GAME 99.8 18th OVERALL - get that up to 102-104 and look out
REBOUNDS PER GAME 43.9 10th OVERALL
ASSISTS PER GAME 24.4 5th OVERALL
POINTS ALLOWED 97.4 8th OVERALL

We need 2-4-6 more pts per game. For ever 2 pts we add, we go up a tier. at 4 for ECF. at 6, fighting for a title.

Its a team that needs to score more pts. That's going to come with shooting more 3s so you get more points per shot
Its also going to come from less turnovers (Beal is 2nd/per game on team) which would go down if they spread the floor and run PnR more and Beal handed the ball less, and catch and shoot more. And Webster catch and shoot once warmed up.

I also think they could trim PP back to about 20min/game from his current 26min/game and be a more high energy team.

I say it often. Its line ups. Its offensive scheme. Its on the head coach.

Time for Randy to step up his game. Last two games he has done pretty well in changing up the rotations while Beal has been out and then Hump injured. What he needs to do is a better job when he has them healthy. He needs to use Gooden more.

This could still be a very good team. Even with the roster they have.

[stevemcqueen1]

Posted this on a different forum:

I think it's important to put Beal's age into context to appreciate how special he actually is.

Here is a comparison of the AS wings drafted since 2008 + Beal in their age 21 season. Except it's age 22 for Butler because he was still at Marquette at 21.

http://bkref.com/tiny/LiTCO

None of them were All Stars in their age 21 season, and Beal is the only one in his third year. His game compares pretty well to any of them in how complete it is, and DeRozan was the only one playing as many minutes and about as big a role for his team as Beal is.

I gotta say, that list isn't very encouraging. Beal is the worst 2pt shooter but shoots a ton of them; he's the second worst at getting to the free throw line; and has the 2nd worst ORtg. He's also one of the worst rebounders. He ranks well is 3P%, but even in that, he's not particularly adept at getting 3-pt attempts up. He is a good passer. I'll also point out that his numbers haven't changed much since his rookie season.

I think it's encouraging. Beal's numbers are comparable to each of those players in many respects. To me the only guy that really stands out in several ways is Paul George, which makes sense because of how big he is. He's really a true SF and at that point in his career, he was already a defensive maven. Butler's minutes played are so small compared to the others as to make it hard to draw conclusions from them. But that in and of itself proves a point in favor of Beal's superior development vs his. Anyway, the first two years of Butler's career, he was a SF and he was a defensive standout, similar to Paul George. Makes sense because these are the two biggest wings in the sample.

The others lean more towards being SGs, but are legit swing men. Beal is the smallest player in the group and he's a pure SG. Once you account for these positional differences, it explains the numbers better. For instance, I think you see that difference in size and role play out in Beal's superior long range shooting vs the superior 2 pt shooting of the other guys. Beal almost always plays the 2 and is on the wing, whereas they're going to have more plays where they're playing the 3 in the front court. Harden, DeRozan, and George, for example, took a much higher percentage of their shots in the lane and at the rim.

To that point,
- Harden is estimated to have played 41% of his minutes at SF that season and even played 4% of them at PF.
- Thompson played 8% of his minutes at the 3 and 8% at the 4, but did play 39% of his minutes at the 3 at age 22
- George played 11% of his minutes at the 3 that season, & 98% of them at the 3 the next season
- DeRozan played 23% of his minutes at the 3, and oddly enough, 1% at the 4.
- Butler played 95% at the 3 that season.
- Beal has played 98% of his minutes at the 2 this season, with the other 2% coming at pg. He is never playing in the front court.

Per 100 possesions,
- Beal is right there in the middle of the pack in steals, with Paul George being the only outlier.
- middle of the pack in rebounds, again with George being the outlier
- actually has a slight lead over everyone in assists, demonstrating a bit more of a facilitating role than them
- second best assist to turnover ration behind Harden
- middle of the pack in scoring, with numbers similar to Harden
- on the good end of the spectrum in DRtg, indicative of the fact he is a much better defensive player than DeRozan and Thompson at age 21.

The lower offensive rating is a result of different usage. The two players with similar usage were DeRozan and Thompson, and Beal's ORtg is in line with theirs.

The block rate for Beal is lower, but again, the explanation of that is Beal is smaller than them and a pure 2. You wouldn't expect him to post superior block rates.

A major difference, like you said, is the FTAs, where he is on the low end with Paul George and Klay Thompson. To that point, it's true he's not as good at getting to the line as a pair of born floppers like DeRozan and Harden (with their abominable West Coast style). But part of the lower FTAs also comes from role as Beal, like Klay Thompson, is more of a pure wing shooter doing more of his scoring from three. At this point, he's getting to the line more than Thompson was.

It's worth mentioning that, despite the low FTAs, Beal is as good an interior finisher as any of them were at 21. His .647 percentage at the rim is second best in the group.

And when you look at the shot charts and heat maps, you see Beal is most like Klay Thompson as a scorer. His role is similar, their usage is similar, and they shoot from the same spots on the floor. George and Harden have similar roles as scorers, each taking almost all of their shots at the rim or from three as low usage low option scorers (78% and 77% respectively). Thompson and Beal are/were creating looks for themselves from mid range (only 53 and 52% of their attempts come at the rim and from three respectively). DeRozan is the oddball of the group because he didn't have a three point game at that point. He's the best of the bunch scoring in the lane and at mid range by far. And he took, by far, the most total attempts. But only 52 were threes.

And I think the biggest difference of all, and is the one that bodes well for Beal--is minutes played. The only one who played comparable minutes per game to Beal was DeRozan. But Toronto was bad and this Wizards team is good. Of the guys who actually played on good teams, Beal is playing the biggest role by far.

Once you account for some positional and stylistic differences, I think the numbers say Beal is at least along the same path to stardom as any of those players. He is definitely further along than Butler was, and is probably further along than Thompson and DeRozan were as well.

[stevemcqueen1]

True Beal is young. I didn't realize that so few one and done wings have made that all star game. But we probably also have to put T-Mac and Bryant into the mix. I'm not sure where the one and done point guards belong on this list given that Kyrie Iriving is more a wing that a distributor and even someone like Derrick Rose and Westbrook were more efficient offensively than Bradley Beal.

I am concerned about Beal at this point though because he does not get to the free throw line and he isn't automatic even when converting mid range jumpers. DeRozan is a good example of someone who people wrote off prematurely and is now an all star caliber player (at least in the Eastern Conference) so perhaps Beal can follow the same path.

Right now there are glaring weakness in his game including his lack of a mid range jumper, a lack of handle which makes it harder to get to the rim (may also be a lack of size and athleticism compared to the likes of Kobe/T-Mac/Westbrook/Wall etc). Still, the potential is there- if he can knock down 3 pointers consistently, there is no reason why he shouldn't be able to improve his mid range game, or at the very least eliminate a lot of those shots.

It surprised me too that so few one-and-dones have panned out for the teams that picked them. Looks like the guys have to really be special to end up living up to expectations. IMO Beal is in the process of living up to expectations, which that alone should be an indiciation of how special he is.

I wouldn't include Westbrook/Rose/Irving in a comparison to Beal. Beal is a pure 2 and each of those guys are PGs. They play 90 to 100% of their minutes at PG whereas Beal has only played 2% of his at PG. You're talking about very different roles on offense and defense as a result. We've seen a pretty good number of young PGs become stars very early in their careers and that's just not the case at the wings. These PGs are playing sooo many more minutes with so much higher usage right off the bat.

DeRozan is an interesting comparison in particular to Beal because, unlike the other young star wings, they play/played a pretty large role for their teams at 21. And Derozan is odd in the ways he scored compared to everyone else. He didn't have a 3 ball but he had the most well developed mid range and intermediate game by far. At this point he was a good slasher and had an excellent arsenal of turnarounds and off the dribble moves and Paul George is the only equivalent athlete of the group. He's so long and acrobatic and skilled that he was a dangerous finisher in the lane early on. I think this explains how he's able to score in such high volume from an early stage.

This is a significant difference between him and Beal. Beal is not the capable volume scorer DeRozan was at 21. But in the big picture he's better than DeRozan was because he's a much better passer and wing shooter than DeRozan was, and a much, much better defensive player.

I think you're right that the next big weakness Beal needs to develop is the mid range game. This is going to be the key to unlocking his potential as a volume scorer because he's always going to be defended at the three point line. A lot of his best looks will come off the dribble from mid range. He's a great pure shooter whenever he can set his feet. And he shows a dribble pull up that's decent, but it is definitely a work in progress. He needs to develop a set of step backs and turnarounds to get good shots from mid range. And he needs to develop a floater for scoring in the lane when he can't get all of the way to the rim so he can still beat multiple defenders. The star volume scorers have the ability to score with confidence from mid range.

And I agree, another step is he needs to improve his ability to handle pressure when he's handling the ball on the perimeter. I think you do see him learning to handle double teams but it can be a clumsy for him and it's not something he's mastered. He doesn't really seem comfortable countering when the defense stops his initial drive. For example, you won't really see him escape and reset and then look to attack again like Wall does. It's usually a perimeter drive where he either goes hard all the way or he gets stopped and passes out of it.

To be fair, Wall is an exceptional ball handler with a rare ability to beat multiple defenders off the dribble with ease. Beal doesn't have to get that good to be a really good volume scoring SG. And Beal is always going to face much more intense ball pressure any way because defenses are always going to play him like a shooter. He won't have to work as hard to get by defenders and get separation as Wall does.

Worth pointing out that Wall was truly starting from scratch as a mid range scorer when he came in. And now he's become a pretty complete scorer with a lot of serious weapons from that part of the floor. Beal at 21 is starting out with more to develop upon for his mid range game than Wall had because he's so much better of a shooter.

My guess is that Beal gets more consistent next season--age 22--to where he plays with a similarly high level of aggression and assertiveness almost every game. And I think this makes him a fringe All Star with a really good chance of getting selected for the game if the team is winning a lot. Then in the age 23 season you will really see his offensive game become expansive and he'll have the confidence and polish to really do what he wants with the ball and have defenders at his mercy like Wall does. And at that point he'll be a legit star and make the AS game easily. Same thing happened to Paul George.

[dckingsfan]

I think that one thing missing here is the type of function we are describing. In all cases it seems to be a step function vs a linear function. That being said, Beal will either take the step or not. SMQ1's analysis seems to indicate that he can take the step.

[Higga]

The Beal we saw in the playoffs was going to be a star. I still think he'll get there. Gotta give him time.

[Induveca]

It's actually pretty maddening......there has been close to zero improvement from Beal from his rookie year. His statistics are nearly identical.

About the only thing he's done is stop jumping into defenders at the rim, for his health. He used to take a ton of nasty falls.

It seems Wittman is firmly with Barkley in the anti-analytics crap.

[Dat2U]

Beal's improvement is incremental much likes Wall's improvement has been. Beal will be fine... patience is key. Look at Klay...you didn't see a huge jump until this season at 25.

[stevemcqueen1]

I think that one thing missing here is the type of function we are describing. In all cases it seems to be a step function vs a linear function. That being said, Beal will either take the step or not. SMQ1's analysis seems to indicate that he can take the step.

I think he is taking the step, you're just not seeing it in the numbers yet. The step being getting to the point where he plays with the assertiveness of a star on the offensive end every game instead of just some. Some young players with big time talent like him can tend to go off for a game or a couple of games and then go back to being just another guy for a while. I think Beal is getting to that point where he knows he can't just blend in for us and he has to bring the right aggressiveness every game. It's a learned approach to the game and I think that lightbulb is coming on for him.

I think Pierce has been a good influence on his development in this respect, he says Pierce tells him to shoot, shoot, shoot and keep his foot on the gas. But also I think Beal's role has evolved to have more offense run for him and to have many more possessions where he starts as the ball handler. This forces him to be aggressive. The results are mixed because he's still expanding his game and learning how to approach new defensive looks. He'll get there with experience eventually and the numbers will catch up. The key is for his role to constantly expand and for him to keep adding tools to his chest. Same as what Wall has done.

[stevemcqueen1]

The Beal we saw in the playoffs was going to be a star. I still think he'll get there. Gotta give him time.

He was in star mode during the playoffs. Too small a sample size to see the broader pattern from it though.

I keep going back to Paul George because his development stands out so much to me. At one point I remember seeing a pretty limited offensive player that didn't seem to have good scoring instincts. And then last year I saw a player that was very aggressive and carried a huge offensive load with a great deal of comfort and confidence. He's a great playmaker now, decision making with the ball looked good and he scored with assertiveness and efficiency. I don't see why Beal can't get to that kind of level by the time he's 23.

[gtn130]

The Beal we saw in the playoffs was going to be a star. I still think he'll get there. Gotta give him time.

He was in star mode during the playoffs. Too small a sample size to see the broader pattern from it though.

I keep going back to Paul George because his development stands out so much to me. At one point I remember seeing a pretty limited offensive player that didn't seem to have good scoring instincts. And then last year I saw a player that was very aggressive and carried a huge offensive load with a great deal of comfort and confidence. He's a great playmaker now, decision making with the ball looked good and he scored with assertiveness and efficiency. I don't see why Beal can't get to that kind of level by the time he's 23.

I'm not sure Paul George is a guy we should look to as someone who has taken huge steps in his offensive game. I'm fairly certain he was performing well above expectation for the first two months of last year, and then his shooting % fell off a cliff thereafter. He was draining everything from outside to start last season.

His USG% has gone up, and that's a pretty large factor in his numbers "improving". He's gotten understandably less efficient, but the result is that he isn't especially efficient overall. PG is an absolutely elite defender and that's where his real value is imo.

Beal is going to have to be a significantly better offensive player than PG to have a remotely similar overall impact.

[nuposse04]

Well another stress injury for him. How long was he out last time? "minor steps injury to his fibula." Dude should get get some genetic testing for his brittle bones.

[stevemcqueen1]

Hopefully he isn't out long. He was just getting going before this. Don't need a major setback right before the postseason for him or the team.

[nuposse04]

Hopefully he isn't out long. He was just getting going before this. Don't need a major setback right before the postseason for him or the team.

8 days off helps. Not sure what "mild" means here. I suspect he'll miss another 2-3 weeks after. More over, he does need some detailed testing done, 3 stress tests in 3 years now? He needs to have that leg examined, I wouldn't even blame him for sitting out the season in order to really understand what is going on via testing. It is odd, I mean I know he is young, but this is odd :/

Speedy recovery and a good prognosis Beal, your propensity to be long 2 mcgoo and all, I hope you are able to come back and help the team out for the playoff push come spring.

[hands11]

http://www.csnwashington.com/basketball ... s-injuries

"There was a little hot spot there. That was it," Wittman told reporters. "There was nothing more than that. He'll get a week off from the break and [the medical staff will] look at it and see where he's at."

Not a big deal.

Interesting though. During post game live they said he had another growth spurt.

He is just 21 and still having growth spurts. When that is over, his bone with harden up and this won't be an issue anymore.

Wall got over it. So will Beal.

[nate33]

J Michael says that the stress fracture is more mild than either of his last two and that they expect his recovery time to be much quicker.

Last time around, he sat out 22 days. By the time our next game starts, he will have already sat out 14 days.

[hands11]

http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos ... te-2-23-15

So they have to reteach Beal how to run so he doesn't injure this leg. Guess he is a heavy runner. Or maybe he runs on his toes to much.

Let hope this also helps him end the bunny step he does when he catches the ball.

Hey..Here is an idea Randy. Have him go run to the corner 3 and stand there. Then when the ball comes, tell him....

Catch it.. Then shoot it. They are worth 3 pts. And that helps the team.

Just a thought.

[dangermouse]

http://www.csnwashington.com/basketball ... s-injuries

"There was a little hot spot there. That was it," Wittman told reporters. "There was nothing more than that. He'll get a week off from the break and [the medical staff will] look at it and see where he's at."

Not a big deal.

Interesting though. During post game live they said he had another growth spurt.

He is just 21 and still having growth spurts. When that is over, his bone with harden up and this won't be an issue anymore.

Wall got over it. So will Beal.

Is this kid gonna come back and be 6'6"?

[nate33]

This came up in the Trade Thread but I felt it belonged here

I don't think I've seen such a good-looking shooter miss so many mid-range jumpers.

Your comment got me thinking. I note that Bradley Beal's FT% in his third season is just .802. That's really not very good for a "pure shooter". Most elite shooters shoot in the high 80's or the 90's. Here are some examples (these are FT% for the third season of their career)

Stephen Curry: .900
Klay Thompson: .795 (an outlier year. He was .841 in Year 2 and .870 in Year 4)
Reggie Miller: .868
Ray Allen: .903
Dell Curry: .870
Hersey Hawkins: .871
Kyle Korver: .849 (shot .914 in his 4th year)
Steve Kerr: .849
Rip Hamilton: .890

Beal just doesn't match up to other pure shooters. This concerns me. A player who is billed as a pure shooter should have the consistent, repeatable mechanics to allow them to shoot in the high 80's from the FT line. All of the other great shooters had this. Beal apparently does not. It may pan out that Beal is merely a good shooter, not a great one. I think we may be witnessing this with his lousy midrange shot. If that's the case, then it's a real problem because he's below average in most other offense skills. He doesn't get separation with his dribble; he's not a great slasher or finisher; and he doesn't draw fouls.

[gtn130]

This came up in the Trade Thread but I felt it belonged here

I don't think I've seen such a good-looking shooter miss so many mid-range jumpers.

Your comment got me thinking. I note that Bradley Beal's FT% in his third season is just .802. That's really not very good for a "pure shooter". Most elite shooters shoot in the high 80's or the 90's. Here are some examples (these are FT% for the third season of their career)

Stephen Curry: .900
Klay Thompson: .795 (an outlier year. He was .841 in Year 2 and .870 in Year 4)
Reggie Miller: .868
Ray Allen: .903
Dell Curry: .870
Hersey Hawkins: .871
Kyle Korver: .849 (shot .914 in his 4th year)
Steve Kerr: .849
Rip Hamilton: .890

Beal just doesn't match up to other pure shooters. This concerns me. A player who is billed as a pure shooter should have the consistent, repeatable mechanics to allow them to shoot in the high 80's from the FT line. All of the other great shooters had this. Beal apparently does not. It may pan out that Beal is merely a good shooter, not a great one. I think we may be witnessing this with his lousy midrange shot. If that's the case, then it's a real problem because he's below average in most other offense skills. He doesn't get separation with his dribble; he's not a great slasher or finisher; and he doesn't draw fouls.

80% FT shooting is good enough. I think Wittman has done a huge disservice to Beal, and with a real coach, Beal will look much better. He's clearly not good at the midrange stuff, and it's an asinine strategy to begin with, so it should be nixed from his game almost entirely.

Beal should be taking much more than four 3s a game, and he should be attacking the basket waaay more. We have awful spacing, so it's tough, but I think he's capable of increasing his free throw attempts even while being a poor ball handler. 2.5 FT attempts a game while averaging 33 mpg? That's clearly a function of the offensive philosophy. Anyone can do better than that.

I'm pretty confident Beal will take a substantial step forward next year with a new coach. Currently he sucks, though.