Official Trade Thread - Part XXVII

[Hidden Eye]

Ariza better than Hayward? Not this again

[Dat2U]

Agreed. Ariza is a much better player right now. Much better defender. A better 3-point shooter. A better rebounder. More efficient on offense. Hayward is a more versatile player, but he does everything at an "okay" level, not at a top tier level. I'd rather have a specialist like Ariza who may not be able to do everything, but the stuff he does he does superbly.

The only argument for Hayward is youth - but when we're dealing with a role player type of guy, I'm less concerned about developing guys and more concerned about finding guys who are ready to win now. When Ariza loses a step, we can replace him.

Offensively I don't see a comparison. Ariza played very well in a 3&D role but Hayward's skill set & versatility trumps anything Ariza does offensively. I don't think it's even close, put Hayward next to Wall & Beal and you have the makings of something very special at least on the offensive end. Hayward was tasked as the lead guy in Utah... surrounded by a significant lack of offensive talent. That's not his ideal role. As a 2nd/3rd option he'd likely see his efficiency skyrocket.

Defensively of course Ariza has a significant advantage, but perimeter defenders impact is quite muted compared to a PF or a C's impact. I'd prefer to have defensive minded bigs and skilled perimeter guys rather than vice versa. If were talking about paying a SF $10 mil per or so, I'd chose Hayward every single time.

This is a fun discussion. And in principle I always favor the team getting younger. But I have two concerns in what you write, Dat.

The first is that last year, per 40 minutes, Hayward only took 2 more shots than Ariza, though he did get to the line 3 more times as well. Is this as big a usage difference as you were thinking?

Second, acquiring someone on the premise that his offensive efficiency will "skyrocket" always seems risky to me -- or rather it has the feeling of a decision based on hope rather than data. Now, data can't tell you everything of course. But hope is a poor predictor of the future. How often has a 3's efficiency begun to skyrocket after he's turned 24?

It's not just about shots. You can use possessions, create opportunities for others and not take shots yourself. Watching any Utah games, you'd see the ball in Hayward's hands a lot. Burke and others may have been PGs but often it was Hayward initiating the offense. And look at Hayward's first three years in the league, his efficiency was fine. His TS% was .568 & .564 the two years prior. What took a hit was his 3pt shooting. It looks like an aberration IMO. I suspect with Wall his 3pt shooting would at minimum, return to career norms. If we can credit Wall for Ariza's efficiency, imagine the positive impact he may have on Hayward and his 3pt shooting.

[Dat2U]

Wow. I'm surprised by this. You and I usually agree about players.

I think you're way off here. I think you underrated the value of having at least one shut-down wing defender. If you have good defensive bigs, you can scheme your way into having a solid defense, but you still need that ace perimeter defender to contain elite wing players. Ariza has won a ton of games for us because Wittman has switched him onto whatever perimeter defender is hot in the 4th quarter.

And, yes, Hayward is a considerably more versatile offensive player, but we don't need versatility from our SF position. We need a guy who can nail 3's and make back-door cuts and finish in the lane. Ariza is great at that. Ariza is also a very good passer relative to his usage rate. There is only one basketball. You don't need three highly skilled offensive decision makers at the guard/wing spots. Two will do, with the third guy just being a catch-and-shoot player, as long as he's an extremely accurate catch-and-shoot player, and Ariza is.

Hayward has more potential for improvement, being the younger player, but if I had to win a game now, I'd take Ariza over Hayward 10 times out of 10 - particularly on a team with John Wall at PG.

Well let me be clear. I personally wouldn't sign either and let Porter learn on the job. I was just specifically looking at the 2 and my preference. I'm just not sold on Ariza, partly because I believe Porter can fill his role but also because Ariza has only played at this level once before... when he was in a contract year with the Lakers. I'm not saying Ariza is a dog and will immediately turn into a useless player with an untradeable contract, I'm saying I don't believe he'll maintain this high level of play going forward and I would expect him to slip back more towards his career norms. He may simply revert back to the player from the '12-13 season, the one that was solid but you really couldn't distinguish his performance from that of Martell Webster. In that case, I'd rather save the millions it would take to re-sign him and develop Porter on the spot.

Okay. So you are saying that Future Ariza will not be better than Future Hayward because you think Ariza's last 1.5 seasons are flukey (and you probably assume a bit more improvement out of Hayward). I think that's a reasonable stance.

But if we're talking about who the better player was last year, I'd say it's Ariza without question. I personally don't think Ariza's performance is tied to his contract so much. I think the correlation is much greater with him playing alongside Wall and I expect it to continue as long as he continues to play alongside Wall.

Ariza was the better player last season. The two seasons prior to that, I would argue it was Hayward. Hayward admittedly had a down year while Ariza had a career year.

[pcbothwel]

Agreed. Ariza is a much better player right now. Much better defender. A better 3-point shooter. A better rebounder. More efficient on offense. Hayward is a more versatile player, but he does everything at an "okay" level, not at a top tier level. I'd rather have a specialist like Ariza who may not be able to do everything, but the stuff he does he does superbly.

The only argument for Hayward is youth - but when we're dealing with a role player type of guy, I'm less concerned about developing guys and more concerned about finding guys who are ready to win now. When Ariza loses a step, we can replace him.

Nate, i will again say that Im not the biggest fan of Hayward, but...what are you'll talking about. Ariza averages 6 rebounds to Haywards 5...not a big deal. Also, in each of Haywards first 3 years he has been a better 3pt shooter despite not having open threes spoon fed to him like Ariza. But he has one year where he shoots 30% and Ariza shoots 40% and all of a sudden Ariza is the better shooter? It should be noted that each of the 3 years before he came to the Wiz, Ariza had a TS% under 50. While Hayward had a TS% of 58,57,56 the 3 years before this one while being a higher usage player. While Ariza is a better defender, Hayward matches him in blocks and steals and I believe he will only improve.

I can understand people having a preference, but to say that Ariza is "a much better player" is simply false. This is not to say that I dont like Ariza as a fit for this team given his skill set and probable contract, but I just thought I should give some perspective

Their counting stats are fairly comparable. On a per 36 basis, Ariza gets a few more rebounds and steals, Hayward gets a few more points. A notable difference is Hayward gets a lot more assists while accumulating a corresponding number of turnovers in the process.

The main difference between the players is efficiency and defense:

ORtg
Ariza: 113
Hayward: 104

DRtg
Ariza: 104
Hayward: 111

TS%
Ariza: .592
Hayward: .520

Those a HUGE disparities. I don't know how you can look at those numbers and think they're equal players. Again, I'll say that Hayward is a jack of all trades but a master of none. Ariza is a specialist. In this league, specialists are more desirable unless your jack of all trades is actually very good at all trades, which makes him a star. Hayward is not.

Fair enough. I really dont even like Haywood so i wont go back and forth on this. As ive said, I prefer Ariza for this team. But you are literally taking Ariza's best year in 10 years (an anomaly) and taking Haywoods worst as comparison.

[verbal8]

Ariza was the better player last season. The two seasons prior to that, I would argue it was Hayward. Hayward admittedly had a down year while Ariza had a career year.

Coming in to the season it looked like it would take $11 to $12 million/year for Hayward's extension. Ariza seemed like he was headed to a salary similar to the $7.5 million he made this season(he did after all opt-in). Now Hayward might be able to be signed for under $10 and Ariza might be close to $9 million.

I am not sure if Hayward is a realistic option because either it would require renouncing Gortat and Ariza(although could probably keep Booker) or compensation to Utah in a S&T.

I think guys like Ersan, Sanders and Hayward who were on terrible teams and had a big drop-off in production might be buy-low opportunties. However they also might be part of the reason their teams are so bad.

One guy I think is worth a look and probably is available for less than the MLE is Marvin Williams. He isn't the superstar SF it was hoped when he entered the league, however he seems to be pretty well suited for the stretch-4 role. He would be a great plan B if Ariza is determined to leave in Free Agency or add some depth if Ariza is retained.

[jivelikenice]

Unless Ariza's or Gortat's salary demands get out of hand I'm expecting the Wizards to go with the same core and use the midlevel and Martell as their means to add to the roster. What kind of trade value does Martell realistically have? It would be tough to get immediate cap relief unless you add in a pick so you're likely looking at a similar type of contract. The names I've come up with are Brandon Bass, Jarrett Jack, Hickson....Any other potential names I'm missing?

The other option is try to see if Detroit is willing to talk S&T for Monroe. There have been conflicting reports on their interest in retaining him. With teams having cap space and David Falk involved, I can easily see him orchestrating a team making a max offer that Detroit wouldn't want to match so they should be motivated to deal if he's not in their long-term plans. Would a trade package centered around Otto be enough to pry him away? Maybe play Monroe at the 4 next to Gortat and create a 3 man rotation w/ Nene? (that is unless Nene is in the trade)

[nate33]

Unless Ariza's or Gortat's salary demands get out of hand I'm expecting the Wizards to go with the same core and use the midlevel and Martell as their means to add to the roster. What kind of trade value does Martell realistically have? It would be tough to get immediate cap relief unless you add in a pick so you're likely looking at a similar type of contract. The names I've come up with are Brandon Bass, Jarrett Jack, Hickson....Any other potential names I'm missing?

FWIW, New Orleans fans on the Trade Board consistently support any trade whereby they give up raw cap space and obtain Martell Webster. They're happy throwing in Pierre Jackson as part of the deal if we want him. They are in dire need of a reliable catch-and-shoot player.

[stevemcqueen1]

Unless Ariza's or Gortat's salary demands get out of hand I'm expecting the Wizards to go with the same core and use the midlevel and Martell as their means to add to the roster. What kind of trade value does Martell realistically have? It would be tough to get immediate cap relief unless you add in a pick so you're likely looking at a similar type of contract. The names I've come up with are Brandon Bass, Jarrett Jack, Hickson....Any other potential names I'm missing?

FWIW, New Orleans fans on the Trade Board consistently support any trade whereby they give up raw cap space and obtain Martell Webster. They're happy throwing in Pierre Jackson as part of the deal if we want him. They are in dire need of a reliable catch-and-shoot player.

Hmm. I'd probably make the deal. Especially if Porter takes Webster's minutes. He'd be a lot better than Roger Mason for them. We could use the savings for sure, and Webster deserves to play somewhere.

[fishercob]

Unless Ariza's or Gortat's salary demands get out of hand I'm expecting the Wizards to go with the same core and use the midlevel and Martell as their means to add to the roster. What kind of trade value does Martell realistically have? It would be tough to get immediate cap relief unless you add in a pick so you're likely looking at a similar type of contract. The names I've come up with are Brandon Bass, Jarrett Jack, Hickson....Any other potential names I'm missing?

FWIW, New Orleans fans on the Trade Board consistently support any trade whereby they give up raw cap space and obtain Martell Webster. They're happy throwing in Pierre Jackson as part of the deal if we want him. They are in dire need of a reliable catch-and-shoot player.

I'd love to turn that into a 3-way whereby the capspace and a modest asset goes to Milwaukee and we get....

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3M9q6VHzD0Y[/youtube]

[jivelikenice]

Unless Ariza's or Gortat's salary demands get out of hand I'm expecting the Wizards to go with the same core and use the midlevel and Martell as their means to add to the roster. What kind of trade value does Martell realistically have? It would be tough to get immediate cap relief unless you add in a pick so you're likely looking at a similar type of contract. The names I've come up with are Brandon Bass, Jarrett Jack, Hickson....Any other potential names I'm missing?

FWIW, New Orleans fans on the Trade Board consistently support any trade whereby they give up raw cap space and obtain Martell Webster. They're happy throwing in Pierre Jackson as part of the deal if we want him. They are in dire need of a reliable catch-and-shoot player.

That sounds good to me...We'd get a trade exemption that we should be able to use with th luxury tax increase (well, depending on Ariza and Gortat's new deal) i know this sentiment would be unpoplar but I'd also take Austin Rivers for Martell.

[jivelikenice]

Fish, if we're sticking with basically the same group I hope we somehow land Ilyasova for your sake! You's stuck with him for the long haul. You deserve it as much as CCJ did when Almond signed a 10-day here!

[LyricalRico]

How about combining the Webster to NOH idea with the idea to get a pick from Memphis for taking on Prince?

Wizards trade: Webster and Miller
Wizards receive: P.Jackson, Prince, and #22

Pelicans trade: Jackson
Pelicans receive: Webster

Grizzlies trade: Prince and #22
Grizzlies receive: Miller

May have to be structured differently so that it can happen on draft night, but that would be everyone's final destination. Memphis saves over $6M by waiving Miller, giving them room to add another piece. NOH adds a shooter with their cap space.

Next steps:

- Take the best available big left on the board at #22
- Re-up Gortat
- S&T Ariza to Dallas for Wayne Ellington and a TPE
- Bring back both Booker and Gooden on 1-year deals

Gortat/Gooden/#22
Nene/Booker/#22
Porter/Prince
Beal/Ellington
Wall/Jackson

We'd be REALLY relying on Otto Porter, but if he comes through and Gooden/Ellington play well for a whole season, we'd at least be close to where we were IMO but with more flexibility (both in 2015 and 2016).

[nate33]

Not gonna happen, Rico. Ted isn't going to allow our team to backslide that much (by replacing Ariza and Webster with Prince) just to get the #22 pick in the draft.

I'd be happy with just trading Webster for Jackson and cap room, and then frontloading the contracts of Gortat and Ariza. Sign Booker to a 1-year contract and spend the rest of the season trying to trade Nene for an expiring contract. That sets us up for some significant cap room next year while also getting us younger without hurting the product on the floor.

[LyricalRico]

Not gonna happen, Rico. Ted isn't going to allow our team to backslide that much (by replacing Ariza and Webster with Prince) just to get the #22 pick in the draft.

Haha, yeah I was thinking something similar as I was typing it. Just was trying to do something for the folks who don't want to sign both Gortat and Ariza longterm.

[payitforward]

Offensively I don't see a comparison. Ariza played very well in a 3&D role but Hayward's skill set & versatility trumps anything Ariza does offensively. I don't think it's even close, put Hayward next to Wall & Beal and you have the makings of something very special at least on the offensive end. Hayward was tasked as the lead guy in Utah... surrounded by a significant lack of offensive talent. That's not his ideal role. As a 2nd/3rd option he'd likely see his efficiency skyrocket.

Defensively of course Ariza has a significant advantage, but perimeter defenders impact is quite muted compared to a PF or a C's impact. I'd prefer to have defensive minded bigs and skilled perimeter guys rather than vice versa. If were talking about paying a SF $10 mil per or so, I'd chose Hayward every single time.

This is a fun discussion. And in principle I always favor the team getting younger. But I have two concerns in what you write, Dat.

The first is that last year, per 40 minutes, Hayward only took 2 more shots than Ariza, though he did get to the line 3 more times as well. Is this as big a usage difference as you were thinking?

Second, acquiring someone on the premise that his offensive efficiency will "skyrocket" always seems risky to me -- or rather it has the feeling of a decision based on hope rather than data. Now, data can't tell you everything of course. But hope is a poor predictor of the future. How often has a 3's efficiency begun to skyrocket after he's turned 24?

It's not just about shots. You can use possessions, create opportunities for others and not take shots yourself. Watching any Utah games, you'd see the ball in Hayward's hands a lot. Burke and others may have been PGs but often it was Hayward initiating the offense. And look at Hayward's first three years in the league, his efficiency was fine. His TS% was .568 & .564 the two years prior. What took a hit was his 3pt shooting. It looks like an aberration IMO. I suspect with Wall his 3pt shooting would at minimum, return to career norms. If we can credit Wall for Ariza's efficiency, imagine the positive impact he may have on Hayward and his 3pt shooting.

Well, it's true that Hayward gets more assists than Ariza. On the other hand, Ariza gets a lot more rebounds than Hayward.

Lets leave aside last year in Hayward's case, to avoid underrating him because of the drop in his 3pt%. And lets dial back as well from Trevor's outstanding year this year. Instead lets compare what they did in 2012-13.

Their eFG% were identical, but because he gets to the line so much more, Hayward's TS% was .56 to .53 for Ariza. And he got 1 more assist than Ariza per 40 as well.

But, otherwise, and particularly in issues involving ball possession, Ariza was much better. And, note that if you get your team the ball you are ipso facto "creating opportunities for others" on your team. Every 40 minutes, TA had 7.2 boards and 2 steals. Hayward had 4.3 boards and 1.1 steals. That's 9.2 for Ariza 5.4 for Hayward -- IOW, Trevor got his team almost 4 more possessions per 40 minutes (TOs were identical). I am *by no means* trying to ding Hayward, but that's a big difference.

I also don't accept the idea of attributing Ariza's efficiency to playing w/ Wall -- that's simply assuming the conclusion you want. Anyone can prove anything via that step. I might as well be claiming that playing w/ Wall, Hayward's trips to the line and his assists would both go down, the one because he'd have to play less 1 on 1, the latter because he would handle the ball less. But I would be wrong to assume any results. All we can base a decision is the 2 players in their careers so far.

So, lets compare Ariza's last year in NO (no Wall) w/ Hayward the same year (actually a slightly better year for Hayward than '12-13). They're much closer, but Ariza is still the more productive of the two. Hayward is a better scorer, but Ariza a better defender and rebounder.

Maybe the key point is what different kinds of players they are -- making them harder to compare than guys who do more or less the same thing but one of them is just does those things better. Still, I can see no way to call Hayward an overall better player than Ariza, but I can see a strong argument in the other direction.

[payitforward]

How about combining the Webster to NOH idea with the idea to get a pick from Memphis for taking on Prince?

Wizards trade: Webster and Miller
Wizards receive: P.Jackson, Prince, and #22

Pelicans trade: Jackson
Pelicans receive: Webster

Grizzlies trade: Prince and #22
Grizzlies receive: Miller

May have to be structured differently so that it can happen on draft night, but that would be everyone's final destination. Memphis saves over $6M by waiving Miller, giving them room to add another piece. NOH adds a shooter with their cap space.

This trade works in the trade checker? How does Miller get traded before his option is picked up? After it's picked up, how does Memphis waive him and save $6+m? Not being skeptical; just don't comprehend how this could work.

Next steps:

- Take the best available big left on the board at #22
- Re-up Gortat
- S&T Ariza to Dallas for Wayne Ellington and a TPE
- Bring back both Booker and Gooden on 1-year deals

Gortat/Gooden/#22
Nene/Booker/#22
Porter/Prince
Beal/Ellington
Wall/Jackson

We'd be REALLY relying on Otto Porter, but if he comes through and Gooden/Ellington play well for a whole season, we'd at least be close to where we were IMO but with more flexibility (both in 2015 and 2016).

Why S&T Ariza in this scenario? To get Ellington? Can't see that....

I don't think Booker will be available on a 1-year deal -- and anyway, whatever you think of him he's obviously an NBA bargain given the relationship between his productivity and how much he will likely command.

If the best player on the board at #22 is a big, take him, sure -- but at that spot in the draft, you have to pick for talent. So IMO pick the very best guy -- he's an asset and, if necessary, can be a help in acquiring a good young big.

[deneem4]

Il take hayward on potential alone...don't care what have ariza have done better...hayward is a better ball handler and can take pressure off wall and beal...that all that matters after this playoff...getting another ball handler who can create or a dominant big men and reliable stretch

[jivelikenice]

Fish, whats your latest iteration on how to get Ilyasova? Would it be a better use of resources to sign a FA like Patrick Patterson and then try to use Martell in a trade for some combo guard help?

[Youheardme90]

Il take hayward on potential alone...don't care what have ariza have done better...hayward is a better ball handler and can take pressure off wall and beal...that all that matters after this playoff...getting another ball handler who can create or a dominant big men and reliable stretch

Can Hayward play the D ? Can he get the steals and deflection that lead to Wall hitting Beal for transition 3`s ?

[verbal8]

It looks like it is really 2 separate deals put together. The Grizzlies portion is Prince/22 pick for Miller. That could happen today(because both players are signed next year w/o options.

The Webster/Miller portion of the deal would have to happen after July 1st for the Pelicans to have cap space.

How about combining the Webster to NOH idea with the idea to get a pick from Memphis for taking on Prince?

Wizards trade: Webster and Miller
Wizards receive: P.Jackson, Prince, and #22

Pelicans trade: Jackson
Pelicans receive: Webster

Grizzlies trade: Prince and #22
Grizzlies receive: Miller

May have to be structured differently so that it can happen on draft night, but that would be everyone's final destination. Memphis saves over $6M by waiving Miller, giving them room to add another piece. NOH adds a shooter with their cap space.

This trade works in the trade checker? How does Miller get traded before his option is picked up? After it's picked up, how does Memphis waive him and save $6+m? Not being skeptical; just don't comprehend how this could work.