Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[nate33]

It would be better to sign Goodwin outright (I think he's earned it) and pull the plug on the Todd project a few months early. I have no idea why Todd is still on the roster when there's no intention of playing him because he clearly is not ready. Its a waste of a roster spot. Feels more like an ego play vs ensuring you have the best 15 on the roster.

That move would put us over the luxtax and Ted would miss out on $16M or so in luxtax redistribution (and he'll have to pay another $3M or so in luxtax fees). That's not gonna happen. And I don't really blame him. I like Goodwin, but having him play an additional 30 games isn't worth $20M.

Hmm, can't another team just sign Goodwin to an NBA contract and steal him away?

No, as a 2-way player, the Wizards effectively have a player option on him for next year at a vet-minimum salary. As long as they extend a vet-minimum offer, he has to take it.

[nate33]

It seems pretty clear that Wes is happy with the foursome of Morris, Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis in the starting lineup. For most of the season, he has included Deni as the 5th guy, presumably for his defense. But then Porzingis missed a game so Gafford started and played well (against Phoenix). KP missed the next game (against Utah) so Gafford started again but didn't play all that well.

What's interesting is the next game after that, against Sacramento, Porzingis was back but Deni got hurt during warmups, so Wes kept Gafford as a starter alongside Porzingis. That resulted in a win. Gafford didn't really do very much in the stat sheet, but posted a +6 on/off differential and the Wizards won the game handily.

So, in an interesting twist, Wes decided to keep Gafford as a starter for the next game against Philly, even though Deni was back. the Wizards won again. Gafford wasn't particularly noteworthy, but he wasn't bad either..

It'll be interesting to see if Wes sticks with Gafford as a starter, or if he only did it against Philly in an attempt to match their size.

[tleikheen]

Wiz success wasnt good with the KP,Kuz ,Deni starting so change is welcomed .lets see how this KP,Gaff ,Kuz lineup does.
I want to see more Rui,Kispert,Deni,Wright as the 2nd unit , without Barton though .

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I can’t believe Carey wouldn’t be a better option than Gibson or Gill as the 3rd center, but WUJ refuses to give him a chance.
With Wright back looks like Jordan Goodwin will be getting DNPs. He’s better than Kispert and Barton, and IMO also Morris, but WUJ doesn’t see it that way. We stink mainly because of bad D, and putting one our best defenders on the bench won’t help.

Coaching.

This big lineup from day one…and I think defensively we would be radically improved. Bad generals lose battles. Bad decision on lineups plus injury issues are why BEFORE THIS PHILADELPHIA WIN why we stunk. I think now that he seems willing to entertain playing the right players, Coach Wes Jr will start to win games more frequently.

I think things might change with Wright and Hachimura in the second unit AND WUJ FINALLY not hating Gafford.

[prime1time]

Here's the truth about the Wizards. Far from trying to completely remove Hachimura's minutes, Hachmiura, outside of Beal/Porzingis/Kuzma, is our most indispensable player. Using on/off not as the sole piece as evidence but rather as just one part of a larger picture it is very easy to draw some conclusions. Wes' insistence on going to all bench lineups sets up our team to have a very large gap in on/off between starters and bench players. The reason is self-evident. The idea is that the starters pull away and then the bench does well enough to maintain the lead. By the very nature of the lineup, it pre-supposes that bench players will have a negative on/off.

Now, what is Rui's role in this team? And why is it that Rui has the worst on/off on the team. It is because he is our bench scorer. So when the big guns are on the bench - Kuzma, Beal, Porzingis - the offense runs through Rui. So his minutes contrast that of our best players. I.e. the people who can really shape on/off. Given Rui's role on this team, think about what a positive on/off would mean regarding Rui? You want to know why Avdija's and Morriss' on/off are so high? Because their minutes tend to coincide with that of Beal/Porzingis/Kuzma.

There are legitimate criticisms to be made regarding Rui, but when posters on this board refuse to be objective it is kind of perplexing. In lineups that are devoid of floor spacing, Rui is shooting 50/42.9/100 splits. Given this kind of offensive efficiency, the obvious answer isn't to completely remove his minutes but to hide him defensively via scheme and minimize the negative impact. The most valuable skill in the NBA is the ability to score efficiently. As much as posters on this board may not like it, Hachimura has this skill. And Wes has built the teams entire rotation around it. If you don't believe me, see how many minutes there is a lineup on the floor that doesn't have one of Brad/Kristaps/Kuzma/Rui. Also, see who has the most non Brad/Kristaps/Kuzma minutes.

Read on Twitter

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I only post on this board rarely now because most fans don't try to be objective. But Hachimura's obvious success forces us to acknowledge the fact that posters on this board don't really know what they are talking about. People have argued that we'd be better off just sending Rui home. Addition via subtraction. Just delusional.

[payitforward]

Wait... are you saying you post only rarely, because *you* "don't try to be objective?"

I'll tell you this: I experienced both a sense of relief & genuine happiness to see your name again, prime.
Don't leave, brother -- we can disagree about stuff without simply checking out!

Rui had a tremendous game vs. the Suns -- certainly it would be hard to imagine anyone having a better night offensively. Not just b/c he only missed 2 shots & 1 FT but also b/c he grabbed 3 offensive boards which erased those few misses completely!

May he go on to do similar stuff for the rest of the season!

All the same, I don't think that composite stat about the bench & our record means very much. & this has nothing to do with Rui either positive or negative. The single biggest problem with the bench has been the utterly awful play of Will Barton all season -- something I certainly never expected based on his numbers either last year or on his career.

[dckingsfan]

May he go on to do similar stuff for the rest of the season! ...

This isn't a maybe. It is going to happen - 10th seed here we come! Mission accomplished.

[dckingsfan]

It seems pretty clear that Wes is happy with the foursome of Morris, Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis in the starting lineup. For most of the season, he has included Deni as the 5th guy, presumably for his defense. But then Porzingis missed a game so Gafford started and played well (against Phoenix). KP missed the next game (against Utah) so Gafford started again but didn't play all that well.

What's interesting is the next game after that, against Sacramento, Porzingis was back but Deni got hurt during warmups, so Wes kept Gafford as a starter alongside Porzingis. That resulted in a win. Gafford didn't really do very much in the stat sheet, but posted a +6 on/off differential and the Wizards won the game handily.

So, in an interesting twist, Wes decided to keep Gafford as a starter for the next game against Philly, even though Deni was back. the Wizards won again. Gafford wasn't particularly noteworthy, but he wasn't bad either..

It'll be interesting to see if Wes sticks with Gafford as a starter, or if he only did it against Philly in an attempt to match their size.

If Wes sticks with this and goes big instead of his want to go small (I think his Achilles heal), I think it will serve him well for the rest of the season.

An additional note here. It really allows him more flexibility with Wright, Kispert, Avdija and Rui coming off the bench. And if he can permanently get away from Barton that will really hurt the tank.

Overall, re-discovering that KP/Gafford can play together is really bad for the tank though.

[payitforward]

One other point. & I hope you'll respond to this:

...most fans don't try to be objective. ...Hachimura's obvious success forces us to acknowledge the fact that posters on this board don't really know what they are talking about.....

Rui had a great night vs. Phoenix, & I hope it never ends.

You could say he was pretty motivated, come to think of it! -- since we just offered Rui to Phoenix for very little in return -- the expiring contract of an end-of-career Jae Crowder -- & the Suns turned us down.

So, tell me... does this mean that the Suns' FO doesn't "try to be objective?"

Does it mean that the Suns' FO people "...don't really know what they are talking about..."?

[nate33]

It seems pretty clear that Wes is happy with the foursome of Morris, Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis in the starting lineup. For most of the season, he has included Deni as the 5th guy, presumably for his defense. But then Porzingis missed a game so Gafford started and played well (against Phoenix). KP missed the next game (against Utah) so Gafford started again but didn't play all that well.

What's interesting is the next game after that, against Sacramento, Porzingis was back but Deni got hurt during warmups, so Wes kept Gafford as a starter alongside Porzingis. That resulted in a win. Gafford didn't really do very much in the stat sheet, but posted a +6 on/off differential and the Wizards won the game handily.

So, in an interesting twist, Wes decided to keep Gafford as a starter for the next game against Philly, even though Deni was back. the Wizards won again. Gafford wasn't particularly noteworthy, but he wasn't bad either..

It'll be interesting to see if Wes sticks with Gafford as a starter, or if he only did it against Philly in an attempt to match their size.

If Wes sticks with this and goes big instead of his want to go small (I think his Achilles heal), I think it will serve him well for the rest of the season.

An additional note here. It really allows him more flexibility with Wright, Kispert, Avdija and Rui coming off the bench. And if he can permanently get away from Barton that will really hurt the tank.

Overall, re-discovering that KP/Gafford can play together is really bad for the tank though.

Minor point, but I don't think Wes has a small-ball instinct that I would characterize as an Achilles heel. In fact, I have been very impressed with his steadfast refusal to resort to small ball. He literally NEVER does it. Have we ever seen Beal at SF? How many minutes has Kuzma played center in games where Porzingis and Gafford were healthy? Wes seems totally comfortable playing Kispert at SG, and even plays Deni there in a pinch.

[dckingsfan]

It seems pretty clear that Wes is happy with the foursome of Morris, Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis in the starting lineup. For most of the season, he has included Deni as the 5th guy, presumably for his defense. But then Porzingis missed a game so Gafford started and played well (against Phoenix). KP missed the next game (against Utah) so Gafford started again but didn't play all that well.

What's interesting is the next game after that, against Sacramento, Porzingis was back but Deni got hurt during warmups, so Wes kept Gafford as a starter alongside Porzingis. That resulted in a win. Gafford didn't really do very much in the stat sheet, but posted a +6 on/off differential and the Wizards won the game handily.

So, in an interesting twist, Wes decided to keep Gafford as a starter for the next game against Philly, even though Deni was back. the Wizards won again. Gafford wasn't particularly noteworthy, but he wasn't bad either..

It'll be interesting to see if Wes sticks with Gafford as a starter, or if he only did it against Philly in an attempt to match their size.

If Wes sticks with this and goes big instead of his want to go small (I think his Achilles heal), I think it will serve him well for the rest of the season.

An additional note here. It really allows him more flexibility with Wright, Kispert, Avdija and Rui coming off the bench. And if he can permanently get away from Barton that will really hurt the tank.

Overall, re-discovering that KP/Gafford can play together is really bad for the tank though.

Minor point, but I don't think Wes has a small-ball instinct that I would characterize as an Achilles heel. In fact, I have been very impressed with his steadfast refusal to resort to small ball. He literally NEVER does it. Have we ever seen Beal at SF? How many minutes has Kuzma played center in games where Porzingis and Gafford were healthy? Wes seems totally comfortable playing Kispert at SG, and even plays Deni there in a pinch.

Point taken for this year (although that is not my perspective from years prior). I guess a better statement would have been that he doesn't trend towards big ball. And it would have been hard for him to trend toward small ball given the injury to Wright this year. Playing Barton at SF would have been "small ball" to me.

[barelyawake]

Whoever said send Rui home obviously has no idea. I hadn’t heard that suggestion. it’s obvious that Barton has been terrible for us; Rui has been our best scoring off the bench; and we need good PG play and a scorer off the bench to be our best selves. It’s not a coincidence that our play fell with Rui and Wright gone, and has picked back up with them and more Taj.

What people want for a team is to get one more killer defender. And that is what Crowder brings (and Taj btw). But, in terms of our current roster, Rui’s shooting is vital to our bench. People seem to forget when Juan Dixon was our best hope for a bench basket. We actually have a good team. We just need leadership and a superstar.

[nate33]

We just need leadership and a superstar.

That's kind of the problem though, isn't it? We don't have a superstar, and we are not going to get a superstar as long as we keep gunning for the 10th seed.

[9 and 20]

I might be showing my limited brain capacity here, but isn't it true of a lot of teams that, if only they could just add a superstar, they'd be really good?

[barelyawake]

I might be showing my limited brain capacity here, but isn't it true of a lot of teams that, if only they could just add a superstar, they'd be really good?

Not the Lakers. No, actually most people forget it takes most teams years of “rebuilding” to get the players you need to compete. Look how much trouble we’ve had over the decades just getting a quality back-up point who doesn’t kill movement or turn the ball over constantly. That one bench position has lost us many games. This current bench is better than any Wizards’ bench in decades. Our team is better than any Wizards’ team in decades, minus the superstar. Obviously, one shouldn’t build a team this way.

[barelyawake]

We just need leadership and a superstar.

That's kind of the problem though, isn't it? We don't have a superstar, and we are not going to get a superstar as long as we keep gunning for the 10th seed.

Of course. Maybe. Probably. I’m not gunning for 10th seed. I’m gunning for winning and trading our heightened valued pieces at trade deadline.

But, yea of course, the problem is we didn’t tank until we got a star. Of course, that’s what you should always do.

[Dat2U]

We just need leadership and a superstar.

That's kind of the problem though, isn't it? We don't have a superstar, and we are not going to get a superstar as long as we keep gunning for the 10th seed.

In theory we have an ideal

2nd option: Beal
3rd option: KP
4th option/bench scoring: Kuz/Rui
Elite perimeter defenders: Avdija/Wright
Solid role players who hit 3s: Morris/Kispert
Rim runner/shot blocker: Gafford

That's a solid rotation... in theory... what's missing from being a serious team in the East? An elite PG/shot creator. How do you get that with Barton, Davis & maybe one of one of your other rotation guys like Kuz/Morris or Wright and no available 1sts? You can't. Maybe Charlotte gives up on the season and gives you Rozier on the cheap. I don't think that significantly moves the needle either.

So how do we find our Morant, SGA or even Darius Garland without tanking & limted trade resources to do anything more than ride a treadmill?

[barelyawake]

Obviously, Dat, you COULD get lucky with late picks. You COULD find a guy who was on a bench and never got a chance to shine. Or some star has to demand a trade. It certainly involves a lot of luck, either way.

I personally think we are a Siakam away from a championship. I’m good with Goodwin, Wright, Davis and Deni handling point.

[doclinkin]

Now, what is Rui's role in this team? And why is it that Rui has the worst on/off on the team. It is because he is our bench scorer. So when the big guns are on the bench - Kuzma, Beal, Porzingis - the offense runs through Rui. So his minutes contrast that of our best players. I.e. the people who can really shape on/off. Given Rui's role on this team, think about what a positive on/off would mean regarding Rui? You want to know why Avdija's and Morriss' on/off are so high? Because their minutes tend to coincide with that of Beal/Porzingis/Kuzma.

Well, no. The biggest problem when Rui is on the court has been on the defensive side of the ball. The offense actually is slightly more efficient with him on court. I think that's the biggest key to increasing his utility. The team has a positive +/- when Rui is on court with a solid defender. Delon. Goodwin. Porzingis (good numbers vs opponent FG% at the rim). Kuzma (solid numbers on opponent FG% overall). With anyone else his numbers are in the negatives. And have been his whole career. Recall that for the first couple years Rui was a starter.

An objective viewer would say: Rui can score, that's his role, but his defense has to pick up significantly, or the team around him has to be able to cover for him. To me it looks like both things are incrementally happening. Adding Delon. And Rui being more active in rebounding, off ball defense, etc.

Also, where I agree with you, benching Barton has helped everybody. Especially since Goodwin and Delon have taken those minutes.

[payitforward]

I might be showing my limited brain capacity here, but isn't it true of a lot of teams that, if only they could just add a superstar, they'd be really good?

LOL....
I'm glad someone pointed this out.

To say, "all we need is a superstar" is the same as to say "we are a terrible team." Which is certainly true of course....