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2012 NBA Draft - Part II

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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1261 » by Rafael122 » Thu Apr 5, 2012 3:16 pm

Mizerooskie wrote:
Rafael122 wrote:Depending on where we pick, I wouldn't be opposed to trading the pick for Harden. I mean at 5, you're talking about Harrison Barnes or someone of that ilk vs. James Harden and it's not even close.

It seems awfully wishful thinking on the part of the author of that article.

OKC will find a way to make it work, rather than trade Harden for a pick.


The author of that article is playing armchair GM. I'd rather wait and see what happens with that situation and then make the move.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1262 » by Nivek » Thu Apr 5, 2012 3:29 pm

Right now, I have McCollum rated as the 4th best PG in the draft, pending measurements. He'd be a nice pickup in the 2nd round. Issue with him is whether he's a PG or a SG. I think he's a better PG prospect -- I think he's too small to be a good SG (except maybe as a reserve), especially since he doesn't seem to be an elite athlete. He needs to get stronger regardless of position. Other than that, his physical tools look fine for a PG.

He should be able to score in the NBA, and his passing was good this season. Red flag on his 2pt percentage(.489). The 2pt percentage thing is worrisome because his level of competition was low. Damian Lillard was better from 2pt range against comparable competition; Aaron Craft (who's extremely underrated on the draft sites) was waaaaaaaay better from 2pt range against much tougher competition; Kendall Marshall was better as well against better competition. Against similar competition in 2009-10, Jeremy Lin had a 2pt percentage of .598.

All that said, I have him with a late 1st round score. Players with similar overall ratings from previous drafts: Brendan Haywood, Mike Miller, Joe Johnson (who's been good, but overrated virtually his entire career).

I'm looking at Will Barton as a SG in the NBA, and he looks pretty good in my stuff. I think he's underrated by draft sites that have him as a mid-2nd rounder. I have him with a mid-1st round score. He needs to get stronger, but he scored efficiently, rebounded well and generated a fair number of assists. I think he'll be a nice value for someone if they really can get him in the 2nd round or as a late 1st. Other players from previous drafts with a similar overall rating include Landry Fields, Trevor Booker, Luol Deng, Jeremy Lin and Ryan Anderson.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1263 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Thu Apr 5, 2012 3:46 pm

Aaron Craft made such a great defensive play against Kansas, that he stood out to me on that one play alone, Nivek. He is really sound with the basketball, too. He is strong and moves well laterally. He's a good football player from HS who can also play basketball very well.

Craft is underrated but how good is his offense? I could see him succeeding at backup PG (much) better than Shelvin Mack, but I don't know that Craft can attack the basket and convert at the next level.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1264 » by nate33 » Thu Apr 5, 2012 3:57 pm

Craft may very well be my favorite college basketball player of all time. At least twice a game, he makes an amazing defensive play that nobody else is capable of making. His anticipation on defense is inhuman. There is no doubt in my mind that he would be a defensive ace at the pro level.

Offensively, he's not a guy that can create his own shot very easily, but he knows how to get his teammates involved. He needs to work on his perimeter shot though. If he becomes reliable from 3-point range, then he could effectively run the pick and roll on offense. I think he can have a pro game very similar to Kirk Hinrich, only a bit better on D and not as effective of a shooter.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1265 » by Nivek » Thu Apr 5, 2012 3:58 pm

Craft is short, but he's freaky quick, very strong and has great anticipation. He had a better than 2/1 turnover ratio, and he was decent from 3pt range (.359) although he didn't shoot it very much. As far as converting inside -- he had a 2pt percentage of .554, which was 2nd best among PGs this season. I don't envision him as a starter, but he was fairly efficient, played smart, and his defense is for sure an NBA skill. It's not like I'd take him in the lottery, but I could see a team taking him in the 2nd round and then having him as a solid reserve PG for the next few years.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1266 » by dobrojim » Thu Apr 5, 2012 4:31 pm

Kev, just curious if you've contacted the Wiz and offered them access
to your spreadsheet for a price? You do a great job of objectivity.
In the larger scheme of things, the amount they ought to be able
to offer you might be small to them but attractive to you.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1267 » by WizarDynasty » Thu Apr 5, 2012 4:56 pm

in the end, none of "this finding a diamond in the rough player that does some particularly well actually matter unless you seem him bringing back a starting caliber player on the trade market.

the only thing that seems to signficantly improve is a players free throw shooting. if you aren't targeting a player who is a two way player in college, that is also oversize for his position, with quick lateral ability and high basketball iq, you are pretty much wasting your time.
When you are as horrible and devoid of difference maker talent as the wizards are, plans to acquire role players really makes no sense. the history of the draft pretty much shows that outside the top 6 players, most players after that are bench players. The players who fall outside the top 6 who become starters normally fit the description of being oversized for their position, quick laterally, decent basketball iq, and showed the ability to be two way players in college. usully if they lack two these dimensions..at best they were bench players. so people here speculating on second round picks should realize that the odds of seeing a poor product five years down the line if EG is hoping to rebuild through picks outside of the top 6 are fooling themselves. This draft at best is going to get us one starter and if we have a skilled GM like weaver, we might get the chance to grab an ibaka or a batum. Players who were oversized for their position, with decent basketball iq's, with nice lateral quickness, who showed two way ability.
Any examination into nick young should have raised flags of low bbiq. Flags into Javale showed he had poor lateral quickness. Unfortunately for EG, we lost an entire season because EG didn't want to acknowledge that he made a mistake in thinking YOung was a longterm answer and didn't want to show Ted Leonsis just how little value his draft pick had in the league as far trade pieces.
You draft a player that is going to get you the highest return on the market 3 years down the line.

so the question really becomes, which of these late round picks can we upgrade into an asset that someone might trade a late lottery pick for if we can upgrade his value in two years. A perfect example is monta ellis. 2nd round pick and Udoh who late lottery--both combined allowed GS to get a number one overall draft pick. These is no way in the world Bucks would have traded Udoh and Young for Bogut. A horrible team needs an outstanding GM who transform late 1st round picks into late lottery assets. If you can't see a player commanding a late 1st round pick after you give him some great coaching and upgrading, then he isn't really worth it, especially if your team lacks significant talent base to acquire new assets. Wizards have no liquid talent that would command a high draft pick outside of john Wall and maybe Seraphin in a year. That's it. So only way to acquire talent is to have a Great GM upgrade late second round talent into lotto level talent. It takes a far seeing GM put it all together. EG has a horrible track recond at doing this and no one on this board has been successfull at predicting which 2nd round or late 1st round talents can now command late lottery picks.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1268 » by Nivek » Thu Apr 5, 2012 5:50 pm

dobrojim wrote:Kev, just curious if you've contacted the Wiz and offered them access
to your spreadsheet for a price? You do a great job of objectivity.
In the larger scheme of things, the amount they ought to be able
to offer you might be small to them but attractive to you.


I appreciate the sentiment, but no -- I haven't offered this to the Wizards, and I hope like hell that something far more sophisticated than my spreadsheet is part of their evaluation process. I talk/email with someone in the front office now and then, and I'll ask when/if I get a chance.

When my stuff says that a guy like Crowder -- who seems to be considered a 2nd round pick -- is actually the 2nd best player in the draft, I do wonder what/if I'm missing something. I had some moments like that when I looked at the statistical production of guys like Wall and MKG. I found some ways to reflect some of those things that don't show up in the box score, which has seemed to help in predicting who will be a good pro.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1269 » by dobrojim » Thu Apr 5, 2012 6:11 pm

Well I would have to think that in person workouts, interviews with the players
and their coaches would be something that every team would do with players
they were seriously looking at. I'd call that more in-depth due diligence but
I'm not sure how much more, if any, sophisticated it might be.

You appear to be doing a paper based moneyball type approach and
don't include much that would let your eyes lie to you. Seems to me
that that kind of approach ought to be one layer of the evaluation
process. And I suppose it probably is for at least many teams with maybe
the difference being in the extent to which it takes place across the board.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1270 » by Nivek » Thu Apr 5, 2012 7:32 pm

Moneyball approach is a pretty good summary.

I have in more players from last year. There are some duplicates, of course as kids stay in school. Interesting to see that most players in the spreadsheet do improve from year to year in college, though few make dramatic leaps. A guy might move from say late 2nd round to mid-2nd round, but I'm not seeing many guys leaping from late 2nd round to top 5.

One exception: Fab Melo. As a freshman, he had a DO NOT DRAFT rating. Where 100 = last pick in the draft, he had a 48. This year, he rates as a late 1st (in the 20s) -- about the same level as Brendan Haywood.

Another kinda-sorta exception is Crowder. In my stuff, he would have rated as a late 1st/early 2nd as a junior. As a senior, he ranks 2nd overall behind Davis. If I combine both seasons at Marquette, he would rate as a top 10 pick.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1271 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Thu Apr 5, 2012 7:53 pm

Nivek wrote:
dobrojim wrote:Kev, just curious if you've contacted the Wiz and offered them access
to your spreadsheet for a price? You do a great job of objectivity.
In the larger scheme of things, the amount they ought to be able
to offer you might be small to them but attractive to you.


I appreciate the sentiment, but no -- I haven't offered this to the Wizards, and I hope like hell that something far more sophisticated than my spreadsheet is part of their evaluation process. I talk/email with someone in the front office now and then, and I'll ask when/if I get a chance.

When my stuff says that a guy like Crowder -- who seems to be considered a 2nd round pick -- is actually the 2nd best player in the draft, I do wonder what/if I'm missing something. I had some moments like that when I looked at the statistical production of guys like Wall and MKG. I found some ways to reflect some of those things that don't show up in the box score, which has seemed to help in predicting who will be a good pro.


I use a "trust my instruments" and not "what I think I see" approach, Nivek. Crowder is a day one starting SF IMO. Jimmy Butler, his teammate and predecessor at Marquette, is holding his own on the Chicago Bulls.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sch ... /2011.html

Crowder doesn't get to the free throw line like Butler, but he's got deeper range and he's a much better rebounder. Crowder has the physicality to be a superior defender. Jae is really good on steals+blocks vs. turnovers.

Judging by the success of Wesley Matthews and Jimmy Butler, I think Crowder is a pretty sure bet to be at least a solid player, but I expect him to be a decent starter. Regardless of his performance, however, I would downgrade him some for being 23 years old already. Crowder is probably in the top-7-10 players IMO. I wouldn't put him top-2.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1272 » by Nivek » Thu Apr 5, 2012 8:12 pm

I take a similar approach, CCJ -- but I'm still in the process of refining the instrument. If I'm missing something, I want to add it to the system. On Crowder, at this point, I think he looks like he's going to be a quality NBA SF. I anticipate him testing well at the draft camps. Biggest question I have on him is length. But I think he should be fine at SF.

Just added Butler to the spreadsheet. My stuff rates him as an early 2nd round pick. Bulls got him at the end of the 1st round. He's been decent for them this year. I have Crowder rated better as a junior and waaaaaay better as a senior.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1273 » by daSwami » Thu Apr 5, 2012 11:25 pm

nate33 wrote:Craft may very well be my favorite college basketball player of all time. At least twice a game, he makes an amazing defensive play that nobody else is capable of making. His anticipation on defense is inhuman. There is no doubt in my mind that he would be a defensive ace at the pro level.

Offensively, he's not a guy that can create his own shot very easily, but he knows how to get his teammates involved. He needs to work on his perimeter shot though. If he becomes reliable from 3-point range, then he could effectively run the pick and roll on offense. I think he can have a pro game very similar to Kirk Hinrich, only a bit better on D and not as effective of a shooter.


I'm on the Craft bandwagon, too, although his shooting at the PG position makes John Wall look like Jeff Hornacek. OSU lost to KU in large part because Craft couldn't hit an open jump shot. I do love his game though. I can't recall a PG that plays D anywhere near as well as he does (maybe Dennis Johnson back in the day). I think he's a better defender than Hinrich. Hinrich plays hard, but he's more of a pest-type defender on the ball, and not really that great off the ball. Craft does both very well. And he's tough as nails.

I haven't really seen much about him on any of the draft sites. He seems to be flying under the radar at the moment. If he came out this year (doubtful) he'd probably be a 2nd rounder.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1274 » by omegatronic3 » Fri Apr 6, 2012 4:43 am

Those who say shy away from MKG because hes not a good speaker i would say are making a mistake.
When patrick ewing came into the league he could barely formulate a sentance. Was Lester Hayes not a great player? Look at Bill Walton too. He couldnt do an interview because of his stuttereing.
So dont confuse that with being stupid.

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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1275 » by DallasShalDune » Fri Apr 6, 2012 4:59 am

omegatronic3 wrote:Those who say shy away from MKG because hes not a good speaker i would say are making a mistake.
When patrick ewing came into the league he could barely formulate a sentance. Was Lester Hayes not a great player? Look at Bill Walton too. He couldnt do an interview because of his stuttereing.
So dont confuse that with being stupid.

You sure dont want a knucklehead but often the knuckleheads are the loudest ones.

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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1276 » by MF23 » Fri Apr 6, 2012 12:44 pm

Nivek wrote:Craft is short, but he's freaky quick, very strong and has great anticipation. He had a better than 2/1 turnover ratio, and he was decent from 3pt range (.359) although he didn't shoot it very much. As far as converting inside -- he had a 2pt percentage of .554, which was 2nd best among PGs this season. I don't envision him as a starter, but he was fairly efficient, played smart, and his defense is for sure an NBA skill. It's not like I'd take him in the lottery, but I could see a team taking him in the 2nd round and then having him as a solid reserve PG for the next few years.


He's a future pro basketball player. He's just not an NBA player, at least not yet. I think it's fair to say no one works harder on the court in the NCAA. He has to develop a J to have a chance to stick in the NBA.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1277 » by 7-Day Dray » Fri Apr 6, 2012 1:05 pm

Anthony Davis was on Jimmy Kimmel. From 1:05 - 2:44 he talks about his unibrow :lol:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-kGrhgQnhA[/youtube]
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1278 » by pancakes3 » Fri Apr 6, 2012 1:32 pm

nate33 wrote:Craft may very well be my favorite college basketball player of all time. At least twice a game, he makes an amazing defensive play that nobody else is capable of making. His anticipation on defense is inhuman. There is no doubt in my mind that he would be a defensive ace at the pro level.


i love the way he's always in a good stance with his arms up, the hustle, the intensity, and most of all how close he gets when he's guarding someone. however i doubt if that brand of in-your-face d can translate to the pro's where you've got freaks like Rose, Westbrook, Paul, Deron, Wall, etc. who can blow past their own shadows with ease.

however if you take one of the aformentioned freaks like say... Wall, and get him to play like Craft? good golly, he'd be a better defender than payton.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1279 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Fri Apr 6, 2012 1:55 pm

Nivek wrote:Right now, I have McCollum rated as the 4th best PG in the draft, pending measurements. He'd be a nice pickup in the 2nd round. Issue with him is whether he's a PG or a SG. I think he's a better PG prospect -- I think he's too small to be a good SG (except maybe as a reserve), especially since he doesn't seem to be an elite athlete. He needs to get stronger regardless of position. Other than that, his physical tools look fine for a PG.

He should be able to score in the NBA, and his passing was good this season. Red flag on his 2pt percentage(.489). The 2pt percentage thing is worrisome because his level of competition was low. Damian Lillard was better from 2pt range against comparable competition; Aaron Craft (who's extremely underrated on the draft sites) was waaaaaaaay better from 2pt range against much tougher competition; Kendall Marshall was better as well against better competition. Against similar competition in 2009-10, Jeremy Lin had a 2pt percentage of .598.

All that said, I have him with a late 1st round score. Players with similar overall ratings from previous drafts: Brendan Haywood, Mike Miller, Joe Johnson (who's been good, but overrated virtually his entire career).

I'm looking at Will Barton as a SG in the NBA, and he looks pretty good in my stuff. I think he's underrated by draft sites that have him as a mid-2nd rounder. I have him with a mid-1st round score. He needs to get stronger, but he scored efficiently, rebounded well and generated a fair number of assists. I think he'll be a nice value for someone if they really can get him in the 2nd round or as a late 1st. Other players from previous drafts with a similar overall rating include Landry Fields, Trevor Booker, Luol Deng, Jeremy Lin and Ryan Anderson.


One way for the Wizards to get better is to parlay any of Crawford, Vesely, or Singleton into a player like Will Barton.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part II 

Post#1280 » by Ruzious » Fri Apr 6, 2012 4:26 pm

pancakes3 wrote:
nate33 wrote:Craft may very well be my favorite college basketball player of all time. At least twice a game, he makes an amazing defensive play that nobody else is capable of making. His anticipation on defense is inhuman. There is no doubt in my mind that he would be a defensive ace at the pro level.


i love the way he's always in a good stance with his arms up, the hustle, the intensity, and most of all how close he gets when he's guarding someone. however i doubt if that brand of in-your-face d can translate to the pro's where you've got freaks like Rose, Westbrook, Paul, Deron, Wall, etc. who can blow past their own shadows with ease.

however if you take one of the aformentioned freaks like say... Wall, and get him to play like Craft? good golly, he'd be a better defender than payton.

A coach who I bet would love to have Craft do the same for his talented young PG is Scott Skiles. SKiles wasn't even as quick or fast as Craft is - but was the ultimate scrapper. The one thing Skiles could do that Craft can't is shoot. Still, I think Skiles would feel like he's coaching his son.
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