Jan Vesely Part II: He a Bust

[nate33]

Vesely took 6 shots plus 4 FTA's in 12 minutes tonight. That's the first time in his career that he managed to average more than 1 shot attempt every 2 minutes (counting only games in which he played 10 or more minutes). I guess he has the green light in Denver.

By the way, he went 2-6 from the floor and 1-4 from the line with 1 turnover. Not sure if giving him the green light is such a good idea.

[hands11]

Vesely took 6 shots plus 4 FTA's in 12 minutes tonight. That's the first time in his career that he managed to average more than 1 shot attempt every 2 minutes (counting only games in which he played 10 or more minutes). I guess he has the green light in Denver.

By the way, he went 2-6 from the floor and 1-4 from the line with 1 turnover. Not sure if giving him the green light is such a good idea.

Well the 2 shots he did make were because he was feed the ball moving toward the basket. Something I advocated. One was a transition feed that he finished and one he got the ball at around the key and finish with the defense in front of him on a left handed runner. Him making other kinds of shots would be a work in progress. 3 games is not going to be nearly enough. You know that. The team isn't making the playoffs. Absolutely he should be encouraged to take shots in the flow of the game and thats what he is doing.

His first stint he helped turn things around and he and Foye helped the team make a run. Ves was....
2-3 with 3 rebounds, 2 steals and 1 block in 6 minutes off the bench.

So in 3 games in 44 mins he has 7 steals, 4 blocks, 12 rebounds and 16 pts

Of players with at least 20 games played, Ves is 7th in the league in steals/48
He is 38th among PF in rebounds rate with 11.7 per 48

Chris Andersen is at 11.5

[TGW]

Vesely took 6 shots plus 4 FTA's in 12 minutes tonight. That's the first time in his career that he managed to average more than 1 shot attempt every 2 minutes (counting only games in which he played 10 or more minutes). I guess he has the green light in Denver.

By the way, he went 2-6 from the floor and 1-4 from the line with 1 turnover. Not sure if giving him the green light is such a good idea.

Hell, playing him at all is not a good idea. But I guess for a team that's pretty much tanking the season like Denver is, it probably makes sense to give your scrubs some minutes. Let them help you do some discrete tanking.

[dangermouse]

CANT BELIEVE IT

i went away on a holiday, no contact with the outside world.

i come back and we traded Janny V for old ass Miller.

IM GONNA HAVE TO CHANGE MY SIG (((

[nate33]

So in 3 games in 44 mins he has 7 steals, 4 blocks, 12 rebounds and 16 pts

Those are some nice numbers, but we would be remiss if we didn't also point out that he committed 9 fouls, shot 7/18 from the floor and 2/8 from the line. That's a TS% of .372, and an ORtg of 87 on a fairly high usage rate (22.7%).

[hands11]

So in 3 games in 44 mins he has 7 steals, 4 blocks, 12 rebounds and 16 pts

Those are some nice numbers, but we would be remiss if we didn't also point out that he committed 9 fouls, shot 7/18 from the floor and 2/8 from the line. That's a TS% of .372, and an ORtg of 87 on a fairly high usage rate (22.7%).

Again, no player is complete and Ves is clearly a work in process.

What I think people do here to often is ignore what he does well. We know what he hasn't done well. The parts that are still raw. A good coach would get him to focus on what he does well. For Ves, that is mostly defense, steals and rebounds. He seems pretty settle in on that already so a coach doesn't have to do much to get him to do that.

On offense, there are a few things he can do and there are things a team can do to take advantage of them. Again, he is a transition player. He had that coming into the league. He can get a few breakaways on his own with steals but its not uncommon for a big to be reliant on a PG getting him the ball to finish. Ves can do that and we know he can finish. He can opp and dunk. He can flash to open spots in the post. And he can offensive rebound tip in. So just on that skill set alone, he can generate some offense with a little help from a PG who looks for those opportunities.

Just those things along if focused on can produce a player that can impact the game while he out there.

Then there is the area of his offense that is in reach that he need to slowly grow. He can grow his game to include a one two dribble drive. He had that coming into the league and he did one yesterday finishing with his left hand. He has taken and made some little bunny hooks lately. Left and right hand flashing across the middle like Kevin does. And he can make a 8-12 footer. He also took and made on of those the other night and made it. But this is a unestablished part of his game. He didn't do a lot of that here. But this team had better options and was focused on winning, not developing players. He should be taking at least one or mid range a game. Nothing over board but enough to get him used to doing it so things slow down for him.

Its actually really good for Ves that he landed in Denver. There the pressure is off so he doesn't have to be success on his outside shooting right away. It something he missed being on the Wizards. He only had that first year where that was the environment and that was a strike year. They also chanced his position so that took time for him to adjust to. I think he finally just got his brain around that over the summer when he went overseas and they wanted him to be a PF/C as well.

Look at all the facts regarding Ves not just what he doesn't do well. In a lot of ways, this is almost like a year two season for him if he was on a rebuilding team like ORL. Reality is its year 3. He is still only 23. He was a project athletic big converted SF international player who just got moved to a team that is rebuilding where he will get regular minutes to see what he can do.

I wouldn't write him off so soon. I don't think he sucks. He has some skills and he has more to grow. Where he ends up, we will so. But if he is a young Birdmanish player or an AK47ish player, there is value there and he can play in this league moving forward.

I'm glad he is getting 14-16 min a game and attempting to grow his game. He needs to take full advantage of this opportunity through the remainder of the year.

[sashae]

What I think people do here to often is ignore what he does well. We know what he hasn't done well. The parts that are still raw. A good coach would get him to focus on what he does well. For Ves, that is mostly defense, steals and rebounds. He seems pretty settle in on that already so a coach doesn't have to do much to get him to do that.

He plays basketball very poorly. That's his best skill. I don't think anyone is ignoring that.

[Nivek]

When a player's deficits are as deep as Vesely's are, it's impossible to just...ignore them to get to what he does at a roughly average level. Basketball is a game where you have to take the whole player -- the good and the bad. The reality is that what Vesely does badly significantly outweighs the stuff he does...well...better than badly. His "good stuff" (rebounding, and defense) is about average. His offense is horrible.

If he works REALLY hard, gets stronger and becomes a standout rebounder and defender, then sure -- he can fill that rebounding/defending role. But, he's an okay rebounder and an average defender who is a self-check on offense. Not a huge need for that in the NBA.

[hands11]

When a player's deficits are as deep as Vesely's are, it's impossible to just...ignore them to get to what he does at a roughly average level. Basketball is a game where you have to take the whole player -- the good and the bad. The reality is that what Vesely does badly significantly outweighs the stuff he does...well...better than badly. His "good stuff" (rebounding, and defense) is about average. His offense is horrible.

If he works REALLY hard, gets stronger and becomes a standout rebounder and defender, then sure -- he can fill that rebounding/defending role. But, he's an okay rebounder and an average defender who is a self-check on offense. Not a huge need for that in the NBA.

He is 2nd among PFs in steals/48... That is way above average. He actually has a higher steal rate then Trevor A who is known around the league for being great at steals. Only PF listed ahead of him is Thaddeus Young.

He averages 2.15 blocks/48 For PFs that's about 18th. Only about 5 names are the list above him are starters. Names like Taj Gibson who averages 2.35. And since landing in Denver in 3 games he has had 4 in 44 mins so now that he is playing regularly in Denver, I expect his average to go up. You want to call that average. Fine.. lets call that average that. But remember, an average NBA player is something of value, not a bust. 30 starters at PF and 30 back ups. 18th would not be average. Average for blocks would be like Kenneth Faried at 1.73/48

Rebounds. He is neck and neck with Chris Anderson in the 38th slot at 11.7/48 Better then Patrick Patterson, Brandan Wright, Donatas Motiejunas, Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson, Taj Gibson, Markieff Morris, Udonis Haslem, Ersan Ilyasova, and David West.

Plus he plays the PnR well and gets up and down the court. 2nd at PF in steals ...better then TA, better then Faried in blocks, and an average to below average PF rebounder. I think that adds up to more then an average defender.

And he is 7-0 and only 23. Sets picks. Dunks. Alley opps. Runs like a deer. Give me a player like that off my bench and I will develop his offense to a degree that I can use that other stuff. Specially when as Gortat says.. he doesn't jump like a white dude. You put it up there and he will go get it and dunk it. CP3 did this for Chandler who had no offense on his own and he generated pts with it. I would start there and grow him.

Now would Ves be my choice as my starting PF on a playoff team. No. But this isn't even close to being about that. It about people saying he totally sucks, can't play in the league and has no skills. Has no chance. There is no hope he will improve because he isn't a basketball player. That just isn't true.

[Nivek]

hands: If I was a GM in a league with you, you'd be welcome to have Vesely. I'd rather have someone good.

[Dark Faze]

Vesely got in his own way too many times. He got minutes his first year here and kept taking himself out of games with stupid fouls. All you have to do is look at his 5 fouls per 36 average for his career to realize he literally couldn't have stayed on the floor even if the coaches wanted him to.

[hands11]

So in 3 games in 44 mins he has 7 steals, 4 blocks, 12 rebounds and 16 pts

Those are some nice numbers, but we would be remiss if we didn't also point out that he committed 9 fouls, shot 7/18 from the floor and 2/8 from the line. That's a TS% of .372, and an ORtg of 87 on a fairly high usage rate (22.7%).

So you think those offensive numbers will improve in Denver when he has either Brooks or Lawson out there with him ?

I mean, who has he really gotten to play with at PG ? Temple ? Price ? Fart Maynor ? Dude is a PF that needs a PG. You calling any of them even near average as a PG ?

He didn't get court time with Wall all that much. And when he did, Nene or Gortat where out there. You want him taking shots when those are the other options? No. He did the smart thing. He played defense, set picks, and passed the ball. Just like he should have given the teams goals. He wasn't out there to develop his offense. If they wanted more offense, they could play Kevin who had a more developed offensive game.

[Nivek]

Bump.

Vesely has shot from the outside about like he shoots FTs. For his career, he's 39-162 from 3 feet and out -- 24.1%. On shots classified as jumpers, he's 23-135 -- 17%.

Just two more made FGs outside 3 feet and he'd be ALMOST to 25%. That's some skill, baby!

[hands11]

Vesely got in his own way too many times. He got minutes his first year here and kept taking himself out of games with stupid fouls. All you have to do is look at his 5 fouls per 36 average for his career to realize he literally couldn't have stayed on the floor even if the coaches wanted him to.

People said the same thing about Dray when he fouled too much early in his career. He seems to be able to stay on the floor now. They said the same about Kevin S as well.

I find it hardly note worth that a skinny SF converted to PF in his first year in the NBA with no summer camp and a shortened season fouled a lot. Besides, even if that wasn't the case ( just mentioning it because you did ) he is an energy defender off the bench. He has fouls to give. He isn't playing 32 minutes. You can't take the foul home with you. And he isn't out there for his offense. He is out there to disrupt things. I would expect him to get some fouls playing like that. Him fouling to much isn't of great concern right now.

Yes, he fouls at a high right. So does Reggie Evans and Carl Landry. Its not a deal breaker.

[TGW]

hands: If I was a GM in a league with you, you'd be welcome to have Vesely. I'd rather have someone good.

/thread

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Vesely pump faked air in a play that might make Shaqtin' a Fool. He was scared to shoot a wide open 12 footer.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[AFM]

He looks like he tries hard but I have to doubt the work ethic of someone who shoots 25% from the FT line. My cousins all shoot better than that and they are 13 and 11.

[hands11]

Bump.

Vesely has shot from the outside about like he shoots FTs. For his career, he's 39-162 from 3 feet and out -- 24.1%. On shots classified as jumpers, he's 23-135 -- 17%.

Just two more made FGs outside 3 feet and he'd be ALMOST to 25%. That's some skill, baby!

So you are ducking my questions right above this post. You post facts I don't ignore but you can't have an honest debate and do the same in return.

No biggy. We will see in time. I never said he was a sure thing. I'm pointing out that he does do some things very well and some well and people here ignore those things. Its easy picking to highlight the things he doesn't do well. Yes he sucks a FT shooting. Yes his offense is very raw. But there is more to basketball then that. He contributes and he has the potential to be used better and get better.

Personally, I enjoy watching him go through that process. F ups and all. If I want to watch a polished complete players there are players to watch do that in the league as well.

There is nothing for me to hate about Ves. Just a young man trying to make it in the NBA. He is not fart Maynor or Steez or Neck Fat Dray. Hell, I even pulled for Neck Fat to make it and he has rebounded like I said he would. And Steez worked as a PG like I said he would. I feel pretty comfortable believing Ves will get better.

[closg00]

Mods have mercy, please lock this thread and let it die.

[Nivek]

So you are ducking my questions right above this post. You post facts I don't ignore but you can't have an honest debate and do the same in return.

I think this calls for an eye roll so...

Umm, anyway -- I didn't duck anything. I've addressed your points many times over on the boards and on my blog. Didn't see the point in retyping that stuff yet again. Plus, we seem to be in kinda-sorta agreement about Vesely's future, even if you prefer to be deluded about his past and present. That is to say, I think Vesely can become a useful NBA player if he works very hard and improves. A lot. You seem to think he's going to be a good NBA player because he's already good and the Wizards are just too stupid to use him right. Or something.

No biggy. We will see in time. I never said he was a sure thing. I'm pointing out that he does do some things very well and some well and people here ignore those things. Its easy picking to highlight the things he doesn't do well. Yes he sucks a FT shooting. Yes his offense is very raw. But there is more to basketball then that. He contributes and he has the potential to be used better and get better.

Personally, I enjoy watching him go through that process. F ups and all. If I want to watch a polished complete players there are players to watch do that in the league as well.

There is nothing for me to hate about Ves. Just a young man trying to make it in the NBA. He is not fart Maynor or Steez or Neck Fat Dray. Hell, I even pulled for Neck Fat to make it and he has rebounded like I said he would. And Steez worked as a PG like I said he would. I feel pretty comfortable believing Ves will get better.

I actually like Vesely as a person. Seems like a nice kid. He's out of his depth in the NBA -- at least for the amount of work he's been willing to put in -- but that's not a crime. He didn't pick himself 6th in the draft. He didn't call himself "fundamentally sound" when he can't hit a shot outside 3 feet, including free throws.

As I mentioned earlier, we're in agreement that Vesely can improve. He has the physical tools. All it will take is work. Based on what I've seen so far, I know that he hasn't put in The Work yet. Maybe he will at some point. But the Wizards didn't trade a sure thing -- even if the "thing" is average play from a PF/C. Maybe he gets better in the future. I hope he does.

So, to some comparisons. This season, Basketball Reference has 131 players classified as PF or C who have played at least 400 minutes (so far). In my overall rating, Vesely ranks 100th among these players with a PPA of 69. That's above replacement level, and it IS improvement -- last season he was the league's least productive PF/C. The average PPA for this 131-player group: 124.

If you've been reading my blog (or my various posts about PPA here), you already know this, but I'll repeat it anyway. In PPA, league average (for all players) is 100, higher is better, 45 is replacement level. PPA is pace-adjusted, accounts for defense, and includes a degree of difficulty factor based on the level of competition a player faces when he's on the floor.

As a low-minute bench player, Vesely's played pretty close to the easiest minutes possible in the NBA. His "degree of difficulty" factor ranks 118th in this group.

The pace adjustment will make Vesely's numbers look their absolute best since the Wizards played slower when he was on the floor than they did the rest of the time.

Here's where Vesely ranks among this group of 131 PFs and Cs in various categories (stats are per 40 minutes and are adjusted for pace):

- Usg: 112
- Ortg: 108
- efg: 55
- FT%: 131
- oreb: 10 *****
- dreb: 113
- reb: 72
- ast: 118
- stl: 2
- blk: 49
- tov: 76
- pf: 19
- pts: 118
- PPA: 100
- def: 66

Each of those categories was sorted high to low. So, he turns the ball over slightly less often per minute than the average PF/C. He has the 22nd highest tov% (turnovers as a percentage of total individual possessions), although tov% isn't that great a stat because it's so dependent on how often a guy shoots. Still, Vesely's turnovers are on the high side for a guy who handles the ball as infrequently as he does.

So, he's good on the offensive glass and he's good at stealing the ball. His efg (FG% in his case) isn't bad, primarily because most of his shots come in the at-rim area. That's a good thing in my eyes -- I'd rather a guy who shoots poorly to shoot less often. He'll block some shots, but he does foul a lot. He doesn't score much, and he can't buy a FT. His defensive rebounding is well-below average for an NBA big.

The "def" category is where he ranks in the defense part of PPA among this group of players. Right at average.

So, we're back to where we started (although with a lot more typing). Vesely is an average defender who's a self check on offense. On balance, he's well below average. The things he does well do not come anywhere close to offsetting the things he does badly.

And, as some have remarked before, basketball is a game where you have to take ALL of what the player does. There are no offense/defense substitutions, except in late game situations when there are frequent stoppages. The coach can't run an offensive play, get a shot for his best shooter, then stop the action to sub in Vesely so Jan can crash the offensive glass. He has to live with Vesely's turnovers and historically bad FT shooting.

The coach can't wait for the other team to pass the ball, and then send in Vesely for the steal. He has to live with him getting pushed around in the lane, his frequent fouls, and his sub-par defensive board work.

Now, there are many claims folks can make about Vesely. I won't argue if someone wants to say he's a good offensive rebounder and good at stealing the ball. I won't argue if someone wants to say he WILL improve. Heck, I think he MIGHT. But, it's not credible to claim he was good, or even that he was showing significant promise. He wasn't. Overall, he was bad. Almost no one is comprised completely of deficits. But, Vesely's deficits are BIG and they matter.

His steals and blocks are nice, but his defensive rebounding is poor and he fouls a lot. Net result: average impact on defense.

His offensive boards are nice, but he can't make a bucket outside three feet, he turns the ball over too much, and he's historically bad at FTs.

And now I'm done typing for the night. Especially since a lot of this is stuff I've typed before.