Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[theboomking]

I've held out my opinion, but after analyzing all the guys we have a shot of drafting.....I'm very excited about Bennett. Very impressive. Twelve double doubles on the year. 53% fg, while taking 3 3 pointers a game?

Wall / Beal / Bennett, if they all live up to their potential is extremely exciting. Let him come off the bench next year and learn from Nene. I want no part of Len, Gobert and ESPECIALLY Zeller. Zeller is going to be a bust of epic proportions.

Bennett is going to be gone when we pick, but I could really see him fitting in well. He can shoot, pass, handle the ball, and score in the post. He also looks like he could be a liability on defense, and like he could easily eat his way into a fatbody. Nevertheless, I could see Bennett really helping complete an offense with Wall, Beal, and Webster.

I've been seeing a lot of posts suggesting trading down. I'd be much more in favor of trading up, whether for Bennett, or another prospect. I don't know what assets we would trade, but we are probably missing the lotto next year. I would consider bundling the '14 pick if there were a player I loved this year.

[Earth2Ted]

To answer my own question, Chad Ford's latest tweet has McGary (along with Russ Smith) being a POSSIBLE 1st round pick. So probably not on our radar.

Re Bennett- I THINK I would steer clear of him. Definitely has talent, but will be a defensive liability. The only time I have seen him play live was 1st half vs Cal in the NCAAs, and he looked undersized and sluggish. I wouldn't be dead set against him, though- that DX highlight reel is pretty impressive.

[sfam]

To answer my own question, Chad Ford's latest tweet has McGary (along with Russ Smith) being a POSSIBLE 1st round pick. So probably not on our radar.

Re Bennett- I THINK I would steer clear of him. Definitely has talent, but will be a defensive liability. The only time I have seen him play live was 1st half vs Cal in the NCAAs, and he looked undersized and sluggish. I wouldn't be dead set against him, though- that DX highlight reel is pretty impressive.

If Michigan loses, I wouldn't be too shocked if they all returned for one more year. I hope they don't though. Still, I doubt McGary comes out.

[mhd]

I think Burke is gone for sure. His stock will never be higher. Everyone knows that Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, and Harrison look like top 5 locks next year.

[thricethefun]

To answer my own question, Chad Ford's latest tweet has McGary (along with Russ Smith) being a POSSIBLE 1st round pick. So probably not on our radar.

Re Bennett- I THINK I would steer clear of him. Definitely has talent, but will be a defensive liability. The only time I have seen him play live was 1st half vs Cal in the NCAAs, and he looked undersized and sluggish. I wouldn't be dead set against him, though- that DX highlight reel is pretty impressive.

If Michigan loses, I wouldn't be too shocked if they all returned for one more year. I hope they don't though. Still, I doubt McGary comes out.

I think McGary, and GRIII should stay another year as they aren't ready yet for the NBA. Most of McGary's points come where he's just standing next to the basket and Burke while drawing a 2nd defender gives him a perfect dish for an easy layup. I'd like to see what GRIII can do with a bigger role on offense in the college game before picking him in the lottery because while the potential is there, his offensive game is still developing.

[sfam]

To answer my own question, Chad Ford's latest tweet has McGary (along with Russ Smith) being a POSSIBLE 1st round pick. So probably not on our radar.

Re Bennett- I THINK I would steer clear of him. Definitely has talent, but will be a defensive liability. The only time I have seen him play live was 1st half vs Cal in the NCAAs, and he looked undersized and sluggish. I wouldn't be dead set against him, though- that DX highlight reel is pretty impressive.

If Michigan loses, I wouldn't be too shocked if they all returned for one more year. I hope they don't though. Still, I doubt McGary comes out.

I think McGary, and GRIII should stay another year as they aren't ready yet for the NBA. Most of McGary's points come where he's just standing next to the basket and Burke while drawing a 2nd defender gives him a perfect dish for an easy layup. I'd like to see what GRIII can do with a bigger role on offense in the college game before picking him in the lottery because while the potential is there, his offensive game is still developing.

Agreed. I'd be concerned taking GRIII in the mid teens. He might be great but its too early to tell.

[thricethefun]

Zeller is going to be horible and olynyk is going to be amazing!

If zeller fell to us in the second round then yes i would take him, that wont happen because some one will take a chance on him, hope its not us.

I agree on Olynyk. I think he will end up being the best big man not named Nerlens Noel of this draft class. I don't think he will have any trouble scoring in the NBA it's just his defense and rebounding that he will need to improve. I wouldn't mind a Zeller pick despite his horrific performance against Syracuse. Has a very high basketball IQ and if he improves his shot I think he could play the power forward in the NBA and excel at it.

[doclinkin]

I agree with Indu, Zeller is going to be horrible. I believe it was Nate who said if he developed a jumper, he could be alright but the kid is getting manhandled by college kids. Imagine what's going to happen when he's up against grown men. With the 10th pick, MAYBE he wouldn't be so bad. At this point I think getting a guy like Burke or Porter is out of the question, but Zeller wouldn't be too bad.

I'd rather have Gorgui Dieng.

[sfam]

I agree with Indu, Zeller is going to be horrible. I believe it was Nate who said if he developed a jumper, he could be alright but the kid is getting manhandled by college kids. Imagine what's going to happen when he's up against grown men. With the 10th pick, MAYBE he wouldn't be so bad. At this point I think getting a guy like Burke or Porter is out of the question, but Zeller wouldn't be too bad.

I'd rather have Gorgui Dieng.

I didn't realize Dieng had a midrange shot. But if last game is any indication, he has a decent one.

[Dat2U]

Random thoughts time...

I'm not a big fan of 20 yr old freshman (McLemore & Shabazz) or 21 yr old sophomores (Carter-Williams) or 23 & 24 yr old seniors who weren't so good when they were 20 (Dieng, Mbakwe, Kadji & whoever else is over-aged and is making a name by beating up on kids 3-4 years younger than they are.

Anthony Bennett at 6-8 240 has better handles than the 6-5 195 Ben McLemore.

After two weeks of the NCAA tourney, Otto Porter is still my default #2 pick.

Nerlens Noel stock went up by having surgery and not having a chance to look bad in the tourney like all the other draft prospects.

We may be underestimating the bust potential of Shabazz Muhammad. I think him being a volume scorer that offers little else on the next level is his ceiling unfortunately.

Michael Carter-Williams is a guard that struggles with his shot AND decision making. That's a really bad combination of flaws to have. He has a TS% of .495 and he's old for a sophomore. He's not someone I'd consider drafting.

After further research, Kelly Olynyk reminds me more of Brook Lopez than Alex Len or anyone else for that matter. Excellent hands, skilled out to 3 pt range. Developed low post game. I like the fact he remade his game last year, shows he's serious about playing at the next level.

Unfortunately, just like Brook Lopez, Olynyk is not much of a defender or rebounder and may not be the physcially toughest guy around. Olynyk may need a shot blocker like Ibaka beside him to cover up for his defensive shortcomings.

I like C.J. McCollum but going into the numbers he doesn't appear to be in the same class as Damian Lillard. Isn't nearly as efficient as Lillard was against weak competition. May still be a decent pro prospect, but may have better value as a mid 1st rounder.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Yeah I like Dieng too. Watching him against Duke, he is better offensivey, and has more of a well rounded game than I realized. Like the way he plays, seems like solid character too. Wouldn't mind him as our pick.

[mhd]

Random thoughts time...

I'm not a big fan of 20 yr old freshman (McLemore & Shabazz) or 21 yr old sophomores (Carter-Williams) or 23 & 24 yr old seniors who weren't so good when they were 20 (Dieng, Mbakwe, Kadji & whoever else is over-aged and is making a name by beating up on kids 3-4 years younger than they are.

Anthony Bennett at 6-8 240 has better handles than the 6-5 195 Ben McLemore.

After two weeks of the NCAA tourney, Otto Porter is still my default #2 pick.

Nerlens Noel stock went up by having surgery and not having a chance to look bad in the tourney like all the other draft prospects.

We may be underestimating the bust potential of Shabazz Muhammad. I think him being a volume scorer that offers little else on the next level is his ceiling unfortunately.

Michael Carter-Williams is a guard that struggles with his shot AND decision making. That's a really bad combination of flaws to have. He has a TS% of .495 and he's old for a sophomore. He's not someone I'd consider drafting.

After further research, Kelly Olynyk reminds me more of Brook Lopez than Alex Len or anyone else for that matter. Excellent hands, skilled out to 3 pt range. Developed low post game. I like the fact he remade his game last year, shows he's serious about playing at the next level.

Unfortunately, just like Brook Lopez, Olynyk is not much of a defender or rebounder and may not be the physcially toughest guy around. Olynyk may need a shot blocker like Ibaka beside him to cover up for his defensive shortcomings.

I like C.J. McCollum but going into the numbers he doesn't appear to be in the same class as Damian Lillard. Isn't nearly as efficient as Lillard was against weak competition. May still be a decent pro prospect, but may have better value as a mid 1st rounder.

If they are forced to pick and Len & Bennett are gone, just take McDermott who will be an elite shooting big.

The Wiz should seriously look at trade oppurtunities. I'm combing over every team to see what is available.

[Dat2U]

With bigs, I think one should get caught up in the athleticism too much. As long as he's a respectable athlete for the position. I remember the case was made against Greg Monroe b/c he wasn't a run & jump athlete.

Skill & IQ are the two most important aspects it appears when it comes to big men. Occasionally you get the McGee or DeAndre Jordan that find ways to impact the game with their athleticism but I think it's no coincidence that two of the most productive big men in the NBA this season are Tim Duncan & Brook Lopez.

Olynyk looks to be a sure bet to be a productive offensive player at the next level. The skill level is really high. Skill plus 7-feet-tall is an automatic winner. He's probably become the guy I'd be looking at considering where were likely to finish.

[WallTown02]

With bigs, I think one should get caught up in the athleticism too much. As long as he's a respectable athlete for the position. I remember the case was made against Greg Monroe b/c he wasn't a run & jump athlete.

Skill & IQ are the two most important aspects it appears when it comes to big men. Occasionally you get the McGee or DeAndre Jordan that find ways to impact the game with their athleticism but I think it's no coincidence that two of the most productive big men in the NBA this season are Tim Duncan & Brook Lopez.

Olynyk looks to be a sure bet to be a productive offensive player at the next level. The skill level is really high. Skill plus 7-feet-tall is an automatic winner. He's probably become the guy I'd be looking at considering where were likely to finish.

But doesn't Olynyk fit into your category above of seniors that weren't good their first few years and are now beating up on kids 2-3 years younger?

[stevemcqueen1]

It's called predictive analysis. What better baseline than his equally talented brother? Or Hansbrough? Not a blind guess.

The kid looks weak against physical play and stronger competition. I would never take a chance on Zeller. If he proves me wrong, good for him.

The kind of predictions you're attempting to make with Zeller are impossible. It's my experience that we unconsciously employ all sorts of hindsight biases when reviewing (or ignoring) our record of these types of predictions in order to reinforce an idea that we have much better powers of prediction than we really do.

You don't even know what team he's going to play for, you and I have no idea whether he's going to be a success or failure and basically 0 basis to support such a claim.

The best you or any of us can hope to do is accurately identify the strengths and weaknesses in a player's skill set. In effect, the strongest claims we could realistically make are along the lines of, "X player has X skill set and therefore has the tools to succeed under X circumstances." Trying to claim X player will succeed and Y player will bust is a fool's errand IMO. And actually, because you say he's an equivalent talent to Tyler Zeller and Tyler Hansbrough, it makes me think you haven't watched him that much.

[WallTown02]

Also Dat2u - if you don't mind, what are your current thoughts on Bennett? Like him more/less than Olynyk? How would you rank the bigs in this draft?

Sorry for all then ?s, but your draft rep piqued my curiosity.

[willbcocks]

Gimme a break. Felt the same about Thabeet.....Henson.....Sweetney......and my Dominican Francisco Garcia.

Oh yeah and Montross.

Racial vibe is more an American thing. He's too slow/not athletic enough.

Sadly Vesely I thought had a shot. He just can't shoot to save his life.

Henson's played pretty well. Actually, he wouldn't be a bad target to try to trade for. Larry Sanders broke out and is ahead of Henson on the depth chart, and Milwaukee management is plumbing new depths of short-sightedness. I wonder if we could get him for a Seraphin and a second or something similar?

[gambitx777]

Olynyk is only 21, and hes a junior, and he needed development, I am ok with guys getting better when they are older because that tells me that they were willing to learn adapt and change their game to get better. that says that they will be flexible on the next level as well.

But i am thinking some teams will take lens potential and Zellers up side over len, so he might fall. It would be great if we could pick up another loto pick and grab possibly both Olynyk and Bennett. that would be pretty cool.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Keep in mind that Kelly Olynyk stepped away from the game for one full season and he worked on getting his body stronger. In three weeks, he will be 22 years old. Alex Len is still just 19 years old, and won't be 20 until June.

Alex Len's game logs as a 19-year old sophomore (2012-2013):
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... elog/2013/

Kelly Olynyk's game logs as a 19-yr old sophomore (2010-2011):
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... elog/2011/

If I had to choose between the two right now, I would really be torn. Len blocked 72 shots as a soph, Olynyk blocked 5. Olynyk made 12-27 college 3-point field goals as a sophomore. He shot .574 to Len's sophomore .532. Len shot 147 FTs to Olynyk's 68 as a sophomore. Len faced ACC competition.

What Olynyk has in his favor is that he was an Academic All American. He graduated already with a degree in accounting and is working on his MBA. Further, he's the son of a Canadian National Team coach. His mother was a referee (per Wiki). He played PG all the way through HS, before hitting a huge growth spurt.

Len OTOH is a massive individual who is not done filling out. He has superior athleticism for a man his size. What can he learn in a couple years?

[Dr Positivity]

With bigs, I think one should get caught up in the athleticism too much. As long as he's a respectable athlete for the position. I remember the case was made against Greg Monroe b/c he wasn't a run & jump athlete.

Skill & IQ are the two most important aspects it appears when it comes to big men. Occasionally you get the McGee or DeAndre Jordan that find ways to impact the game with their athleticism but I think it's no coincidence that two of the most productive big men in the NBA this season are Tim Duncan & Brook Lopez.

Olynyk looks to be a sure bet to be a productive offensive player at the next level. The skill level is really high. Skill plus 7-feet-tall is an automatic winner. He's probably become the guy I'd be looking at considering where were likely to finish.

And the thing about Olnyk is - he's a really good athlete! He has blow-by ability and vertical explosiveness. Very few bigs have his speed. Physically I think his weakness is not great strength. I would say Olynyk's body is quite similar to Dirk's all around, and that's a compliment because Dirk may go down as one of the all time most underrated athletes (watching very young Dirk tapes, his first step is shockingly great)

I like Cody Zeller more than most, but him v Olynyk is a near no brainer for me at this point. Olynyk is the better athlete, longer, more skilled (shooting game) and was the more dominant college player. Game set match.