Bradley Beal - Part II

[nate33]

This came up in the Trade Thread but I felt it belonged here

I don't think I've seen such a good-looking shooter miss so many mid-range jumpers.

Your comment got me thinking. I note that Bradley Beal's FT% in his third season is just .802. That's really not very good for a "pure shooter". Most elite shooters shoot in the high 80's or the 90's. Here are some examples (these are FT% for the third season of their career)

Stephen Curry: .900
Klay Thompson: .795 (an outlier year. He was .841 in Year 2 and .870 in Year 4)
Reggie Miller: .868
Ray Allen: .903
Dell Curry: .870
Hersey Hawkins: .871
Kyle Korver: .849 (shot .914 in his 4th year)
Steve Kerr: .849
Rip Hamilton: .890

Beal just doesn't match up to other pure shooters. This concerns me. A player who is billed as a pure shooter should have the consistent, repeatable mechanics to allow them to shoot in the high 80's from the FT line. All of the other great shooters had this. Beal apparently does not. It may pan out that Beal is merely a good shooter, not a great one. I think we may be witnessing this with his lousy midrange shot. If that's the case, then it's a real problem because he's below average in most other offense skills. He doesn't get separation with his dribble; he's not a great slasher or finisher; and he doesn't draw fouls.

80% FT shooting is good enough. I think Wittman has done a huge disservice to Beal, and with a real coach, Beal will look much better. He's clearly not good at the midrange stuff, and it's an asinine strategy to begin with, so it should be nixed from his game almost entirely.

Beal should be taking much more than four 3s a game, and he should be attacking the basket waaay more. We have awful spacing, so it's tough, but I think he's capable of increasing his free throw attempts even while being a poor ball handler. 2.5 FT attempts a game while averaging 33 mpg? That's clearly a function of the offensive philosophy. Anyone can do better than that.

I'm pretty confident Beal will take a substantial step forward next year with a new coach. Currently he sucks, though.

You're missing my point. Yes, 80% is good enough that you want him shooting free throws. My point is the FT percentage is indicative of overall shooting ability. Guys who are legitimately great all around shooters tend to shoot 85-91% from the FT line. Beal does not, which suggests his ability as an all around shooter is limited. He's not in their class.

[gtn130]

You're missing my point. Yes, 80% is good enough that you want him shooting free throws. My point is the FT percentage is indicative of overall shooting ability. Guys who are legitimately great all around shooters tend to shoot 85-91% from the FT line. Beal does not, which suggests his ability as an all around shooter is limited. He's not in their class.

No -- I stated that the midrange stuff isn't worthwhile for Beal. Unless you think 42% from 3 isn't good enough, then he's more than an adequate shooter if you acknowledge my point.

Your belief that because he's shooting 5-10% worse at FTs than historically elite shooters is indicative of something is a shaky theory at best.

Kyle Korver's first three years in the NBA:

79%
85%
85%

Beal:

78%
78%
80%

What exactly can you confidently conclude from that? Korver was anywhere from 1-6% better at FT shooting than Beal therefore Beal isn't ever going to be an elite shooter? Sorry, but I'm not about to buy into that theory.

Replace Wittman with someone competent, and Beal will look way better. FT shooting is about as irrelevant as it gets when it comes to evaluating Beal.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss nate's point. Free throw shooting has been a fairly reliable indicator of overall shooting ability. When looking at the draft, for example, FT% has been a better indicator of a player's 3pt shooting in the NBA than his college 3pt percentage.

While Beal has definitely shown he's an excellent 3pt shooter, he's also shown through nearly three seasons to be a lousy shooter from inside the stripe.

Here are shooting percentages for a group of elite 3pt shooters through their first 3 seasons:

Code: Select all

PLAYER          2PT%    3PT%    FT%
S.Curry         .489    .441    .901
R.Allen         .460    .372    .866
R.Miller        .537    .397    .850
Korver          .416    .408    .845
Kerr            .423    .489    .844
Beal            .424    .401    .791


So, about as good on 2pt attempts as Korver and Kerr. Middle of the pack in 3pt shooting, but ahead of Ray Allen and Reggie Miller. And bringing up the rear in FT%.

Interestingly, Beal actually has gotten to the FT line slightly more often through his first three seasons as Steph Curry did in his first three.

I don't think it's much to worry about, and I agree with gtn's point that Beal could be helped by a coach who'd encourage him to shoot threes instead of 2pt jumpers. But, I don't think it's something to just be dismissed. Beal's FT shooting may improve as he gets older and continues working on his game. He's younger now than Korver, Kerr and Miller were as rookies. Basically the same age as Curry and Allen were in their rookie years.

[nate33]

You're missing my point. Yes, 80% is good enough that you want him shooting free throws. My point is the FT percentage is indicative of overall shooting ability. Guys who are legitimately great all around shooters tend to shoot 85-91% from the FT line. Beal does not, which suggests his ability as an all around shooter is limited. He's not in their class.

No -- I stated that the midrange stuff isn't worthwhile for Beal. Unless you think 42% from 3 isn't good enough, then he's more than an adequate shooter if you acknowledge my point.

Your belief that because he's shooting 5-10% worse at FTs than historically elite shooters is indicative of something is a shaky theory at best.

Kyle Korver's first three years in the NBA:

79%
85%
85%

Beal:

78%
78%
80%

What exactly can you confidently conclude from that? Korver was anywhere from 1-6% better at FT shooting than Beal therefore Beal isn't ever going to be an elite shooter? Sorry, but I'm not about to buy into that theory.

Replace Wittman with someone competent, and Beal will look way better. FT shooting is about as irrelevant as it gets when it comes to evaluating Beal.

I'm disregarding first year shooting because players don't get as much time to practice FT's in college as they do once they become pros. Most players improve in Year 2 and 3 before leveling off.

From Year 2 onward, Korver was a 6% better FT shooter. 6% is a lot when you're already talking about guys to the far right of the bell curve of FT distribution. Beal is barely above average. Korver is more than a full standard deviation above average.

If Beal is barely above average as a FT shooter (and below average when compared to other shooting guards), why would someone expect him to become an elite midrange shooter?

[gtn130]

My point is that Beal is being compared to historically elite shooters and conclusions are being drawn based on mostly negligible differences in FT shooting %. If Beal was shooting like 65% from the FT line then sure, I would I agree, but he's shooting 80%...

Shooters don't always improve along the same trajectory -- Korver is still improving, and I still don't really see the correlation between FT% and 2PT%. Reggie Miller "only" shot 85% (again compared to historically elite competition) from the FT line but almost 54% from 2 -- that breaks whatever model people are trying to build right now.

In my opinion, the much much bigger factor here is that Beal is constantly put in bad situations on offense, and I still don't see anything predictive in shooting 80% from the FT line instead of 84%.

[gtn130]

Just look at the leap Jimmy Butler took this year --

77%
80%
77%
84% over the largest sample BY FAR (7 FTA a game)

Shooters can improve, but I'm happy to concede that Beal will not be an historically elite shooter on the level of Reggie Miller, Steph Curry, Kyle Korver etc., but that doesn't preclude him from being a good player.

Theoretically Beal was drafted to be more like Harden than Korver. Wittman has tried to make him Rip Hamilton. There's a huge disconnect there, and I think when a coach actually tries to play to Beal's strengths, he'll be a good player. Currently he's not a good player, and that's hard to imagine considering he's a decent defender and is shooting >40% from 3. It's all Wittman.

[gtn130]

Wesley Matthews' FT% number don't even make any sense --

83%
84%
86%
80% (79.7%)
84%
75%

If he started off his career shooting 75% and then 79.7% would we be evaluating him differently? I still have my doubts about FT% being predictive when FT% itself can fluctuate so much year to year.

[nate33]

Just look at the leap Jimmy Butler took this year --

77%
80%
77%
84% over the largest sample BY FAR (7 FTA a game)

Shooters can improve, but I'm happy to concede that Beal will not be an historically elite shooter on the level of Reggie Miller, Steph Curry, Kyle Korver etc., but that doesn't preclude him from being a good player.

Theoretically Beal was drafted to be more like Harden than Korver. Wittman has tried to make him Rip Hamilton. There's a huge disconnect there, and I think when a coach actually tries to play to Beal's strengths, he'll be a good player. Currently he's not a good player, and that's hard to imagine considering he's a decent defender and is shooting >40% from 3. It's all Wittman.

Jimmy Butler is an outlier. It's really rare for a guy to make such a massive jump in production at age 25. He went from a PER of 13.5 to a PER of 21.

Just because it CAN happen occasionally doesn't mean we should expect that it WILL happen with Beal. You've got to look at the probabilities. The probabilities suggest Beal is merely a good shooter, not a great one. We can also see that he's not a good shot creator or dribbler. With that in mind, I think it's pretty optimistic to assume he'll be anything more than an average starting SG in this league. While that's not a horrible thing, it also means that he's not indispensable. If he currently has the trade value of a borderline star, then I'd definitely consider trading him.

I do agree with you that it's worth seeing Beal under a different system before drawing any final conclusions. Wittman's offense doesn't seem to play to Beal's strengths.

[gtn130]

Jimmy Butler is an outlier. It's really rare for a guy to make such a massive jump in production at age 25. He went from a PER of 13.5 to a PER of 21.

Just because it CAN happen occasionally doesn't mean we should expect that it WILL happen with Beal. You've got to look at the probabilities. The probabilities suggest Beal is merely a good shooter, not a great one. We can also see that he's not a good shot creator or dribbler. With that in mind, I think it's pretty optimistic to assume he'll be anything more than an average starting SG in this league. While that's not a horrible thing, it also means that he's not indispensable. If he currently has the trade value of a borderline star, then I'd definitely consider trading him.

I do agree with you that it's worth seeing Beal under a different system before drawing any final conclusions. Wittman's offense doesn't seem to play to Beal's strengths.

Gilbert Arenas tho.

I agree it's unlikely for a guy to take a huge leap -- obviously only the elite players do this, which is why they're elite. I'm just saying it's within Beal's capability to make big improvements to his game, and at this point there is so much noise involved in evaluating Beal that it's really tough to draw any strong conclusions.

When I say I think he'll be a good player sans Wittman, I mean a guy who plays solid D and has a ~16 PER. Being significantly better than that is going to take a big leap, as we already discussed.

[hands11]

This came up in the Trade Thread but I felt it belonged here

I don't think I've seen such a good-looking shooter miss so many mid-range jumpers.

Your comment got me thinking. I note that Bradley Beal's FT% in his third season is just .802. That's really not very good for a "pure shooter". Most elite shooters shoot in the high 80's or the 90's. Here are some examples (these are FT% for the third season of their career)

Stephen Curry: .900
Klay Thompson: .795 (an outlier year. He was .841 in Year 2 and .870 in Year 4)
Reggie Miller: .868
Ray Allen: .903
Dell Curry: .870
Hersey Hawkins: .871
Kyle Korver: .849 (shot .914 in his 4th year)
Steve Kerr: .849
Rip Hamilton: .890

Beal just doesn't match up to other pure shooters. This concerns me. A player who is billed as a pure shooter should have the consistent, repeatable mechanics to allow them to shoot in the high 80's from the FT line. All of the other great shooters had this. Beal apparently does not. It may pan out that Beal is merely a good shooter, not a great one. I think we may be witnessing this with his lousy midrange shot. If that's the case, then it's a real problem because he's below average in most other offense skills. He doesn't get separation with his dribble; he's not a great slasher or finisher; and he doesn't draw fouls.

Well that's exciting news.

What's sad is.. His first two months in the league he shot.

.850
.865

Those were his best two month short of a short injury months where he was 8-8

That said, he did shoot .857 this year for DEC and .833 for JAN.. that's .845 ish range over two month of not missing any games.

and he was .885 against CHI in the playoff last year, though he was .696 against IND.

At a glance, he seems to do pretty well when he plays the entire month without missing games.

Part of this may have to do with the nature of his injuries as well. When he gets hurt, its the kind of hurt were he isn't allowed to play basketball.

Not making excuses but trying to understand the thing that might be different regarding him. He might not be elite, but he might be better then .800 and more in the .840-.850 range.

[dckingsfan]

I think hands is right - we won't know Beal's potential until he gets a good 12 to 18 months of solid work in...

The only worry I have is that he never gets physically to that point.

[hands11]

I think hands is right - we won't know Beal's potential until he gets a good 12 to 18 months of solid work in...

The only worry I have is that he never gets physically to that point.

Young bones ?

Still grew some recently I believe.

Curry seems to be less injured these days. I remember a time when I worried if that ankle would ever be right. He just kept twisting it. Then year 3, just 26 games. It wasn't looking good.

But Steph is about to turn 27 on March 14th and this is his 6th year so in year 3 he was 23/24. In year 3 Beal is just 21

Good news is, while Beal has gotten that stress injury, they have handled him better and better as time goes on. This time he didn't miss that much time at all. Only 8 games. 9 if you count the back to back preventative one where they just sat out.

At least it not a knee. I think his bones will start to harden and he should be ok. He looks built solid. He is still just 21. If he was 24 and having this issue, I would be more concerned.

And I have to say, he looked quick yesterday cutting to the basket. And his footwork looked a lot tighter. He wasn't hoping around after the catch. He got right into his move. And he is looking better and better around the basket finishing those drives.

[dckingsfan]

Could very well be that he grows out of it... and he won't really make that jump until sometime after he is really ready to go.

Guess it will be a max contract and hope.

[payitforward]

...Replace Wittman with someone competent, and Beal will look way better. FT shooting is about as irrelevant as it gets when it comes to evaluating Beal.

Ridiculous. Will he shoot a higher % on 2-pointers? Higher on 3-pointers? Will he shoot *more* 3-pointers -- is that your point?

Will he also shoot a higher % from the FT line if we replace Wittman? Is that what you mean?

[Kanyewest]

...Replace Wittman with someone competent, and Beal will look way better. FT shooting is about as irrelevant as it gets when it comes to evaluating Beal.

Ridiculous. Will he shoot a higher % on 2-pointers? Higher on 3-pointers? Will he shoot *more* 3-pointers -- is that your point?

Will he also shoot a higher % from the FT line if we replace Wittman? Is that what you mean?

I'm leaning towards the fact that he would shoot more 3s and more layups although I too wonder if his play would dramatically improve. It would be interesting if the Wizards could loan him out to a team for a year like San Antonio so that he could develop or actually see if he's that good to warrant the Wittman bashing. I guarantee that Pop would give Beal an earful to get the mid-range jumper out of Beal.

[payitforward]

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss nate's point. Free throw shooting has been a fairly reliable indicator of overall shooting ability. When looking at the draft, for example, FT% has been a better indicator of a player's 3pt shooting in the NBA than his college 3pt percentage.

While Beal has definitely shown he's an excellent 3pt shooter, he's also shown through nearly three seasons to be a lousy shooter from inside the stripe.

Here are shooting percentages for a group of elite 3pt shooters through their first 3 seasons:

Code: Select all

PLAYER          2PT%    3PT%    FT%
S.Curry         .489    .441    .901
R.Allen         .460    .372    .866
R.Miller        .537    .397    .850
Korver          .416    .408    .845
Kerr            .423    .489    .844
Beal            .424    .401    .791


So, about as good on 2pt attempts as Korver and Kerr. Middle of the pack in 3pt shooting, but ahead of Ray Allen and Reggie Miller. And bringing up the rear in FT%.

Interestingly, Beal actually has gotten to the FT line slightly more often through his first three seasons as Steph Curry did in his first three.

I don't think it's much to worry about, and I agree with gtn's point that Beal could be helped by a coach who'd encourage him to shoot threes instead of 2pt jumpers. But, I don't think it's something to just be dismissed. Beal's FT shooting may improve as he gets older and continues working on his game. He's younger now than Korver, Kerr and Miller were as rookies. Basically the same age as Curry and Allen were in their rookie years.

This, on the other hand, makes a key point. Bradley Beal is 21 years old. When this season is over, he'll still be younger than Dwyane Wade was when he was drafted.

Moreover, unlike 3-point % and FT %, 2-point % can't be evaluated as a raw figure. It can't be viewed as an indicator of whether someone is "a pure shooter." There are too many kinds of "2 pointers." I'm pretty sure mid-range jumpers go in less often than tip-ins, fast break layups, etc.

[gtn130]

...Replace Wittman with someone competent, and Beal will look way better. FT shooting is about as irrelevant as it gets when it comes to evaluating Beal.

Ridiculous. Will he shoot a higher % on 2-pointers? Higher on 3-pointers? Will he shoot *more* 3-pointers -- is that your point?

Will he also shoot a higher % from the FT line if we replace Wittman? Is that what you mean?

Just read my other posts itt so I don't have to repeat myself.

I've already stated that with a better coach, we can realistically expect Beal to put up a ~16 PER and play solid D. Yes, this is by way of minimizing the number of long 2s and midrange shots, which he isn't good at. If we simply subtract 3-4 long 2s and replace them with 3s and shots at the rim, that will without a doubt dramatically change Beal's overall efficiency. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect a good coach to figure out how to get Beal those opportunities.

[gtn130]

...Replace Wittman with someone competent, and Beal will look way better. FT shooting is about as irrelevant as it gets when it comes to evaluating Beal.

Ridiculous. Will he shoot a higher % on 2-pointers? Higher on 3-pointers? Will he shoot *more* 3-pointers -- is that your point?

Will he also shoot a higher % from the FT line if we replace Wittman? Is that what you mean?

I'm leaning towards the fact that he would shoot more 3s and more layups although I too wonder if his play would dramatically improve. It would be interesting if the Wizards could loan him out to a team for a year like San Antonio so that he could develop or actually see if he's that good to warrant the Wittman bashing. I guarantee that Pop would give Beal an earful to get the mid-range jumper out of Beal.

That alone would make a massive difference. Beal has obvious flaws -- he's not very good off the dribble in any capacity, but there's little doubt that he can become an efficient player with a few changes in philosophy.

[AFM]

I'm not worried about his FT% or none of that, no doubt the kid will be a great shooter
I'm more worried about how he can't dribble for ****. He just looks awkward and clumsy with the ball. I honestly don't think you can learn to have a nice handle in your mid 20s. Dudes like Irving, Stevenson, Steve Francis, they all just look natural with the ball and the way they move. Beal looks like hes running through quick sand, and has to do this weird side step to move laterally.

[Induveca]

I'm not worried about his FT% or none of that, no doubt the kid will be a great shooter
I'm more worried about how he can't dribble for ****. He just looks awkward and clumsy with the ball. I honestly don't think you can learn to have a nice handle in your mid 20s. Dudes like Irving, Stevenson, Steve Francis, they all just look natural with the ball and the way they move. Beal looks like hes running through quick sand, and has to do this weird side step to move laterally.

His dribble drives into traffic are cringe worthy. He should watch tape of Ray Allen and Korver. Unfortunately Wittman praises the long two.

The more Wittman I watch it's become apparent he's just emulating Saunders STILL. Nick Young used to launch deep twos, Blatche would jack up 15-20 footers like Nene/Humphries if there was any opening. Annoying.