2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[pcbothwel]

My hope is that Russ just gets a solid offseason to work with Beal, Rui, and Bryant. Once he fully respects them as legit NBA caliber offensive weapons (especially Rui and TB), I hope he takes a little bit of a back seat next year. Thats really got to be hope.

[nate33]

Since he was brought up, I decided to take a closer look at Jalen Johnson. He’s a fluid athlete, who handles the ball extremely well in the open court, especially for a player his size, and is a good rebounder. The best part of his game though may be his passing. Jalen is a smart and instinctive passer.

I know there are legit concerns about Johnson’s shooting (although his shot doesn’t look broke), his defense and his motor. But I expect a lottery team to take a chance on him. He has the physical tools and bball IQ to be a very good player

Yeah, after taking a longer look at Jalen Johnson, I like him a bit more. He is very good in the open floor and is a fine interior defender and rebounder. And I'm not too worried about his jumper. His mechanics are a little sloppy, but the shot isn't broken. He'll eventually become a serviceable shooter if he puts the work in.

All that said, he looks like a 4 to me, not really a 3. I wasn't all that impressed with his lateral quickness as a perimeter defender. We already have a 4 in Rui, and Deni is probably better suited to play 4 as well. If we are drafting a forward, I'd like a more quick-footed, perimeter oriented guy. I just don't see how we could develop Jalen Johnson without trading one of Hachimura or Avdija first.

[Dat2U]

I think Jalen is definitely a 4 and he isn't an ideal fit with Rui or Deni. He may be the most talented of the 3 but he does have a lot of questions.

[Ruzious]

Giddey would probably start off Westbrook's backup and be his eventual replacement by season's end.

Much like TBJ should have been Westy's backup going into this season.

I think we have to go with the assumption that Westbrook's here to stay - and I think Giddey will be more point forward than point guard. He's going to have a huge adjustment to the speed of the NBA. We can't have another TBJ situation - especially with Avdija having a very poor rookie season. After those failures, we need to get a different type of player.

They can buy Westbrook out after next season without long term implications. If we're stinking up the joint at the all-star break next season there would be little reason to continue to run him out there.

But I doubt they pick a player who they know won't complement the players they have now - at least not on purpose. They're not going to assume they're going to suck next season.

[Ruzious]

Honestly, I don't think Jalen Johnson gets picked before late 1st. He had 2 good games all season, and he seems to have completely alienated Coach K.

[Illuminaire]

I'd like to see the case for it.

As you wish!

When I watch Cade, I see a better passing Klay Thompson. Which, by the way, is an outstanding player - but a second tier star who can't carry a team. That's why he's T2 for me. I don't believe he can be a true franchise player, whereas I see that potential in Mobley, Suggs, and maybe Green.

I agree with almost all of the strengths you listed.

• Versatile wing
• Good defensive timing
• Sweet shooter
• Solid handle

Where I think we differ is how he will be as a playmaker at the NBA level. When I watch his passing, two things stand out to me. One, he's exceptionally accurate. I think this ties into his elite athletic ability, which is hand-eye coordination. But I also see that the vast majority of his passes are direct cone-of-vision passes. He's not making peripheral reads. He's not throwing it across to the weak side because he feels the man open. That's totally fine, being able to make smart, effective passes is a plus skill. But he's not a true PG, and I think a lot of his perceived T1 value is bundled up with the idea of having a 6'8 point running your team.

You also highlighted that while his handles are solid, that's all they are. He can get stripped. In the tourney, I noted many break situations where he was unable to finish the break because he couldn't maintain his dribble at full speed. These are things he'll get better at, but it may take a few years, and he's always going to have tall-guy-with-mediocre-burst issues with dribbling.

Speaking of the mediocre burst... those highlights against Iowa State look great. But against NBA level defenders, he struggled. Clever angles alone weren't enough once length or quick lateral movement swallowed up his first step. I do think he'll adjust and this won't stop him from being a good scorer in the NBA, but I believe it caps his ceiling. He's not going to be an elite playmaker because good wing defenders will prevent his penetration and challenge his shot. Like Klay, he'll need to start his drives off of ball movement and screen action, and balance his shooting with occasional penetration and slick passing.

Again, this will mean he's a good, effective player. But he won't be someone who takes over games in the 4th, unless he's riding a hot streak from 35 feet.

As for other wing things, he's not a great rebounder. I have some questions about how his defense will translate on the next level, but I'm willing to just agree it will be a plus. So that's basically it. Better passing Klay Thompson, a fantastic second star, but not a franchise changing luminary on his own.

Which, I will add, makes him a great choice for the Wizards.

Many other low lottery teams need that first tier star, and I think if they take Cade, they'll be disappointed.

[NatP4]

Honestly, I don't think Jalen Johnson gets picked before late 1st. He had 2 good games all season, and he seems to have completely alienated Coach K.

The Notre Dame, Bellermine, Louisville, and NC State games combined: 14 turnovers 0 assists.

Somehow, he didn’t pull down a single rebound against Notre Dame in 15 minutes. I know you watch a lot of ACC basketball, Ruz, that is a serious accomplishment.

[Ruzious]

Honestly, I don't think Jalen Johnson gets picked before late 1st. He had 2 good games all season, and he seems to have completely alienated Coach K.

The Notre Dame, Bellermine, Louisville, and NC State games combined: 14 turnovers 0 assists.

Somehow, he didn’t pull down a single rebound against Notre Dame in 15 minutes. I know you watch a lot of ACC basketball, Ruz, that is a serious accomplishment.

I looked up inconsistent in the dictionary, and there's a picture of Jalen Johnson.

[DCZards]

Honestly, I don't think Jalen Johnson gets picked before late 1st. He had 2 good games all season, and he seems to have completely alienated Coach K.

I’m betting on Jalen Johnson being a lottery pick. From what I’ve read, his issues at Duke are being overhyped and he seems to come from a solid family...dad is a former college baller and is now a police officer.

If Johnson ends up going in the late 1st round he’ll be a steal,IMO.

[nate33]

I'd like to see the case for it.

As you wish!

When I watch Cade, I see a better passing Klay Thompson. Which, by the way, is an outstanding player - but a second tier star who can't carry a team. That's why he's T2 for me. I don't believe he can be a true franchise player, whereas I see that potential in Mobley, Suggs, and maybe Green.

I agree with almost all of the strengths you listed.

• Versatile wing
• Good defensive timing
• Sweet shooter
• Solid handle

Where I think we differ is how he will be as a playmaker at the NBA level. When I watch his passing, two things stand out to me. One, he's exceptionally accurate. I think this ties into his elite athletic ability, which is hand-eye coordination. But I also see that the vast majority of his passes are direct cone-of-vision passes. He's not making peripheral reads. He's not throwing it across to the weak side because he feels the man open. That's totally fine, being able to make smart, effective passes is a plus skill. But he's not a true PG, and I think a lot of his perceived T1 value is bundled up with the idea of having a 6'8 point running your team.

You also highlighted that while his handles are solid, that's all they are. He can get stripped. In the tourney, I noted many break situations where he was unable to finish the break because he couldn't maintain his dribble at full speed. These are things he'll get better at, but it may take a few years, and he's always going to have tall-guy-with-mediocre-burst issues with dribbling.

Speaking of the mediocre burst... those highlights against Iowa State look great. But against NBA level defenders, he struggled. Clever angles alone weren't enough once length or quick lateral movement swallowed up his first step. I do think he'll adjust and this won't stop him from being a good scorer in the NBA, but I believe it caps his ceiling. He's not going to be an elite playmaker because good wing defenders will prevent his penetration and challenge his shot. Like Klay, he'll need to start his drives off of ball movement and screen action, and balance his shooting with occasional penetration and slick passing.

Again, this will mean he's a good, effective player. But he won't be someone who takes over games in the 4th, unless he's riding a hot streak from 35 feet.

As for other wing things, he's not a great rebounder. I have some questions about how his defense will translate on the next level, but I'm willing to just agree it will be a plus. So that's basically it. Better passing Klay Thompson, a fantastic second star, but not a franchise changing luminary on his own.

Which, I will add, makes him a great choice for the Wizards.

Many other low lottery teams need that first tier star, and I think if they take Cade, they'll be disappointed.

I agree that Cunningham doesn't have the ball-handling and passing ability to be a point forward (at least not yet). He's not Luka Doncic. But I really struggle to understand your comparison to Klay Thompson. Klay is one of the worst ball-handling wings in the league - doing nearly all of his work on catch-and-shoot. Cade may not be a true point guard, but he is surely an above-average ball-handler for a wing. At the same time, Klay is one of the top 5 best shooters of all time. Cade can shoot, but is he a HOF caliber shooter? I don't see it.

I think Cade looks more like the next Gordon Hayward, only he is already the shooter that Haywood took years to become.

[Illuminaire]

I agree that Cunningham doesn't have the ball-handling and passing ability to be a point forward (at least not yet). He's not Luka Doncic. But I really struggle to understand your comparison to Klay Thompson. Klay is one of the worst ball-handling wings in the league - doing nearly all of his work on catch-and-shoot. Cade may not be a true point guard, but he is surely an above-average ball-handler for a wing. At the same time, Klay is one of the top 5 best shooters of all time. Cade can shoot, but is he a HOF caliber shooter? I don't see it.

I think Cade looks more like the next Gordon Hayward, only he is already the shooter that Haywood took years to become.

Possibly. I can't say that's out of range. I do think Hayward was more athletic and that the lack of a first step is going to hold back Cade the way lack of handles held back Klay. Different causes, same result.

As for the shooting (and overall) comparison... behold college per 100 stats.

[nate33]

I agree that Cunningham doesn't have the ball-handling and passing ability to be a point forward (at least not yet). He's not Luka Doncic. But I really struggle to understand your comparison to Klay Thompson. Klay is one of the worst ball-handling wings in the league - doing nearly all of his work on catch-and-shoot. Cade may not be a true point guard, but he is surely an above-average ball-handler for a wing. At the same time, Klay is one of the top 5 best shooters of all time. Cade can shoot, but is he a HOF caliber shooter? I don't see it.

I think Cade looks more like the next Gordon Hayward, only he is already the shooter that Haywood took years to become.

Possibly. I can't say that's out of range. I do think Hayward was more athletic and that the lack of a first step is going to hold back Cade the way lack of handles held back Klay. Different causes, same result.

As for the shooting (and overall) comparison... behold college per 100 stats.

FWIW, I'm not ruling out the possibility that Cade becomes an all time great shooter. I just tend to avoid predicting anybody will be an all time great at anything. All time greats can't be predicted on college production alone.

[Illuminaire]

All true. Perhaps the more measured take would be "Klay Thompson who trades a bit of shooting for better passing."

Klay is a 41.9% career shooter at fairly high volume. I think Cade is easily a 39-40% career shooter at similar volume. That's the part of his game I have full confidence in.

[NatP4]

I have not finished reading this yet, but I figured I would post for those interested, you won’t find a more in depth scouting report anywhere:

Read on Twitter

[FAH1223]

OKC, TOR, ORL... all refuse to win games

[doclinkin]

When I watch Cade, I see a better passing Klay Thompson. Which, by the way, is an outstanding player - but a second tier star who can't carry a team. That's why he's T2 for me. I don't believe he can be a true franchise player, whereas I see that potential in Mobley, Suggs, and maybe Green.

Whereas I don't see franchise turnaround locks in any of the top picks this year. Why I said there is no Tier Zero players. Suggs is good, but was surrounded by NBA talent. He was equivalent to Cade at Monteverde. Yes there is a role in the NBA for a scoring PG who works hard on defense and has excellent body control. Not convinced that alone carries a team to the playoffs. Still while he has the talent to raise his game, he was commonly the 3rd most important player on the floor on that Gonzaga squad. And he didn't have to be. It's a positive that he was able to pick his spots, and Gonzaga was never really tested until the final game. They had a complete team around him. Granted he played well in the tourney, I'd be damn happy to have him. Still, to my read he hasn't shown that he can carry a team. He hasn't had to.

Mobley has the two-way big instincts, is smart and swiftly developing, but was not especially assertive either. I love how his game seems to be growing, love his instincts. I think he will have a quicker impact than most seem to suggest. Nevertheless he is not Tim Duncan. Or even Anthony Davis.

Where I'd differ with you is the assessment of Cade's passing and floor game. I do see a 360 degree awareness, especially in setting up the move to open up a shot. He is thinking about the countermoves before he starts his move. That is the part of his game that is rare. The analytical view of the game. I'd agree his athleticism is not eye popping. And he has to add strength to develop his full potential at the NBA level. But in interviews it is also clear he both studies the game and is a grinder. He knows his heat chart because he has practiced that shot thousands of times in the gym. So he practices the moves and countermoves that will get him to that spot. That is the sort of player that will add something to his game every year, and will obsessively read the scouting reports. I don't think he will be the player who takes over games by raw athleticism, but I do think he will improve his team from a leadership position. In Monteverde he was effectively a coach on the floor. As he matures I think he will have that ability to read other teams and set up his teammates to succeed, literally like the quarterback that he played as in highschool. He needs an excellent coach since he has the ability to translate coachspeak for other players. That is the part that I see in how he may play at the next level and that elevates his value above his current output. Leadership, understanding of the game, and vision.

[Illuminaire]

I understand your points, Doc. We're both making our best projections based on limited data. I don't think there's any chance we can convince each other of our positions, as most of our logic is still speculative and filled with subjective assumptions.

We can circle back to this in a year or two and see whose read was closer to the mark. I do think you are bang on about his overall understanding of the game, and I share your confidence that he will improve. It will be interesting to see how his passing plays out, and whether his cerebral approach can overcome his athletic limitations.

Fun conversation, thanks for providing your thoughts!

[Illuminaire]

Whereas I don't see franchise turnaround locks in any of the top picks this year. Why I said there is no Tier Zero players. Suggs is good, but was surrounded by NBA talent. He was equivalent to Cade at Monteverde. Yes there is a role in the NBA for a scoring PG who works hard on defense and has excellent body control. Not convinced that alone carries a team to the playoffs. Still while he has the talent to raise his game, he was commonly the 3rd most important player on the floor on that Gonzaga squad. And he didn't have to be. It's a positive that he was able to pick his spots, and Gonzaga was never really tested until the final game. They had a complete team around him. Granted he played well in the tourney, I'd be damn happy to have him. Still, to my read he hasn't shown that he can carry a team. He hasn't had to.

Mobley has the two-way big instincts, is smart and swiftly developing, but was not especially assertive either. I love how his game seems to be growing, love his instincts. I think he will have a quicker impact than most seem to suggest. Nevertheless he is not Tim Duncan. Or even Anthony Davis.

I agree there are no franchise locks. I do see the potential for that kind of player in those two, though. When his team needed him to step up, Suggs did rise to the occasion. Alas, he was playing 1 on 5 for most of the second half of that game. It was painful how his senior teammates folded under pressure. However, I was concerned by how he was unable to get to all of his spots. It's also difficult for a SG to be a true game-changer unless they are a Curry-like shooter. See Bradley Beal, an amazing player who still can't get a team to .500.

Mobley really, really intrigues me. You say he's no Duncan, but I think he could be. He's exactly the kind of long, savvy, positional player who does all the little things to dominate without needing to score. I don't know if he'll score as much as Duncan did, but I think he'll do so more efficiently.

Obviously, that's a low percentage upside result. Most talented young draft prospects don't end up being HOF players. Of all the ones in this draft, Mobley is my best bet to reach that stratified air.

Cade fits a much cleaner need for the Wiz. For a lot of other teams, I'd take a swing at Mobley and do everything I could get help him succeed.

[doclinkin]

Mobley really, really intrigues me. You say he's no Duncan, but I think he could be. He's exactly the kind of long, savvy, positional player who does all the little things to dominate without needing to score. I don't know if he'll score as much as Duncan did, but I think he'll do so more efficiently.

Obviously, that's a low percentage upside result. Most talented young draft prospects don't end up being HOF players. Of all the ones in this draft, Mobley is my best bet to reach that stratified air.

Cade fits a much cleaner need for the Wiz. For a lot of other teams, I'd take a swing at Mobley and do everything I could get help him succeed.

Right. Mobley is my target as well. Though as far as growing into a Duncan level player, okay if he had 4 years at Wake Forest to develop his footwork and bank shot, and came into the league playing for Pop and next to the Admiral, well then yes, maybe he could be.

Here he will have to do all of his playing and maturing while battling for minutes in a league that is unfriendly to Bigs. I can dream that we can assemble a team around him, but I think early on we will see more production from say Neemias Queta than we will from Mobley. With his athleticism and poise though I suspect his ceiling is higher. Much depends on the next coach, and GM of course. I want a staff that understands the value of Bigs and how to use them. Gortat and Nene both understood high level Big man play, but if we had a proper tutor for a highly talented Big then there are ways to exploit what he does well.

[NatP4]

I swear, I must’ve been watching a different Oklahoma State team this year. I could not disagree more with all of the scouting reports and fan posts about him. Never once did I see a lead guard that had elite vision and the ability to create for his teammates and make everyone around him better.

I see Jayson Tatum.

Suggs is a more athletic Kyle Lowry. Mobley is on the spectrum of Myles Turner to Anthony Davis. Slightly closer towards Anthony Davis. Green is on a spectrum of Zac Lavine to Bradley Beal, significantly closer to Lavine.