2025 Draft Thread - Part 2

[TGW]

Tre Johnson's defensive rating is a 109. Holy sheeittt that's terrible.

DND

[tontoz]

Collin Murray Boyles. As an upgraded Lu Dort. Big body long armed player able to defend any position. Dort shot poorly from outside in College and as a rookie, but has added this to his game. I can see CMB following a similar progression.

If I could steal him on a trade up from 18, I'd rather do it that way though.

CMB has made 9 3s total in 2 college seasons. Dort made 54 in one college season.

CMB also led the conference in scoring efficiency. He hasn’t had to shoot from outside. CMB was trash from 3 but is smart and fiercely competitive. I would not rule out him adding anything to his game that he needs to earn minutes.

The point with Dort though is that a team needs that one defender that plays big or small equally well. CMB does. Can guard literally every position. One way or the other.

As for comparison to Draymond. (In other folks posts). Every other draft year I dismiss any side-by-side with Dray and anyone else. But I was tracking him when he played for Izzo since his sophomore year when he popped up on various stat searches. CMBs numbers this year are practically a Xerox of Dray’s sophomore year. Except that CMB scored more efficiently on higher usage. Even despite that he can’t go right. Scouts have pointed it out. And yet no one could stop him anyway.

Put simply I don’t know the ways that CMB will adjust. I just know he *will* adjust and succeed. His mobility and anticipation on defense and read/react understanding of the game is simply too good to fail. I said the same about Draymond back then. You just see it in his game. He’s steps ahead of everyone.

Not everyone makes huge improvements in their weak areas. History shows that most guys drafted dont work out.

Even guys who become good players frequently have the same weaknesses as vets that they had as rookies. How long did we wait for Wall to get better on his midrange shots? Of shoot fewer of them? Or stay more under control taking it to the basket? How many years did Giannis work on shooting 3s? How'd that work out?

CMB had plenty of time to work on his shot prior to the combine and he still laid an egg. 7-25 on spot up 3s unguarded? Yikes

You can't make draft picks based on hopium. There has to be a realistic assessment of a players strengths and weaknesses. You cant just assume that everyone gets bigger/faster and makes huge improvements in the weaknesses.

Comparing someone to Dray is not realistic not just because nobody else has been able to live up to that comp but also because it took Steph Curry to unlock his gifts. On another team he wouldnt have been nearly as effective.

[DCZards]

Tre Johnson's defensive rating is a 109. Holy sheeittt that's terrible.

DND

Johnson has all the physical tools to be a very good defender. The team that drafts him—almost certainly in the top 6—will have to get him to focus on playing better D.

[tontoz]

Tre Johnson's defensive rating is a 109. Holy sheeittt that's terrible.

DND

Johnson has all the physical tools to be a very good defender. The team that drafts him—almost certainly in the top 6—will have to get him to focus on playing better D.

DRTG is a lame stat for individual players anyway. I haven't paid attention to it in years.

Bilal has a DRTG of 120 lol.

[Dat2U]

OKC doesn't have a weak defender in their playoff rotation. Seems like everyone is a good defender.

Just food for thought.

It really is the model isn't it...long, athletic defenders with quick, disruptive hands.

Last year's champs, Boston, also excelled on D, with above average defenders in Brown, Holiday, White, and Horford.

The OKC model is one that Dawkins is well aware of and helped to build. That's why I think Carter Bryant has a decent chance of being the Zards pick at 6. He's young, athletic, long, and elite on D.

One major catch. He is extremely limited off the dribble. A one-to-two max dribble guy at most. That's a ceiling limiting offensive factor and really tempers my excitement for him.

[nate33]

Tre Johnson's defensive rating is a 109. Holy sheeittt that's terrible.

DND

DRtg is a worthless stat for wings and guards.

[nate33]

OKC doesn't have a weak defender in their playoff rotation. Seems like everyone is a good defender.

Just food for thought.

It really is the model isn't it...long, athletic defenders with quick, disruptive hands.

Last year's champs, Boston, also excelled on D, with above average defenders in Brown, Holiday, White, and Horford.

The OKC model is one that Dawkins is well aware of and helped to build. That's why I think Carter Bryant has a decent chance of being the Zards pick at 6. He's young, athletic, long, and elite on D.

One major catch. He is extremely limited off the dribble. A one-to-two max dribble guy at most. That's a ceiling limiting offensive factor and really tempers my excitement for him.

I agree with both of you. Bryant looks limited offensively at the moment. But at the same time, tontoz is right that our team building philosophy appears to be similar to OKC in that they will not tolerate a bad defender in the lineup.

So if given the choice between a guy like Bryant versus a guy like Knueppel or Queen, I think they would go with Bryant. I just don't think they will compromise on defense. They'll just wait another year to find a two-way star, and/or hope that they can develop one of their existing guys into a primary offense initiator.

I'm not saying Bryant is their guy at #6. I'm just saying that Queen and Knueppel are NOT their guy.

[AFM]

I would consider CMB at 18 if every other decent prospect is gone. He screams bust with limited upside to me (pause)

[DCZards]

OKC doesn't have a weak defender in their playoff rotation. Seems like everyone is a good defender.

Just food for thought.

It really is the model isn't it...long, athletic defenders with quick, disruptive hands.

Last year's champs, Boston, also excelled on D, with above average defenders in Brown, Holiday, White, and Horford.

The OKC model is one that Dawkins is well aware of and helped to build. That's why I think Carter Bryant has a decent chance of being the Zards pick at 6. He's young, athletic, long, and elite on D.

One major catch. He is extremely limited off the dribble. A one-to-two max dribble guy at most. That's a ceiling limiting offensive factor and really tempers my excitement for him.

Agree that Bryant needs to get a lot better as a ball handler and improve his ability to create for himself. But I might just take the chance he’ll get better in those areas with coaching and experience.

The length, athleticism, and instincts and effort on D are already there and those are things you can’t coach.

Bryant has a nice stroke--and high, quick release--from 3pt range...and is said to have a high bball IQ, which shows up in some of the passes I’ve seen him make on the film I watched.

Not saying the Zards should take him at 6…but I wouldn’t be mad at them if they did.

[dckingsfan]

Tre Johnson's defensive rating is a 109. Holy sheeittt that's terrible.

DND

DRtg is a worthless stat for wings and guards.

Might disagree with that one. It is useful in context, comparing two guards on the same team for example...

Okay, nitpicking.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

It really is the model isn't it...long, athletic defenders with quick, disruptive hands.

Last year's champs, Boston, also excelled on D, with above average defenders in Brown, Holiday, White, and Horford.

The OKC model is one that Dawkins is well aware of and helped to build. That's why I think Carter Bryant has a decent chance of being the Zards pick at 6. He's young, athletic, long, and elite on D.

One major catch. He is extremely limited off the dribble. A one-to-two max dribble guy at most. That's a ceiling limiting offensive factor and really tempers my excitement for him.

Agree that Bryant needs to get a lot better as a ball handler and improve his ability to create for himself. But I might just take the chance he’ll get better in those areas with coaching and experience.

The length, athleticism, and instincts and effort on D are already there and those are things you can’t coach.

Bryant has a nice stroke--and high, quick release--from 3pt range...and is said to have a high bball IQ, which shows up in some of the passes I’ve seen him make on the film I watched.

Not saying the Zards should take him at 6…but I wouldn’t be mad at them if they did.

Bottom line there’s more to his game than he was able to show at Arizona….

Watch on YouTube

[closg00]

Our favorite guessing game.

Watch on YouTube

[The Consiglieri]

Tre Johnson's defensive rating is a 109. Holy sheeittt that's terrible.

DND

Everything I've read from scouts quotes on him in terms of negatives has been:

The above posted from you, accented by a belief by some, that if he's got a good head/mental makeup and approach, he has the physical attributes to be a great defender with more want to/work.

The other negative is basically he was a non-entity in terms of driving to the hoop.

I haven't really heard any defenses of these liabilities from his fans, it kind of reminds me of Queen's fans either outright ignoring his issues in terms of mobility/feed and horrific defense, and never defending it with pro-Queen posts, or just soft pedaling how much of a problem it will be or how much of a problem it is.

In fairness, I soft peddle the issues Fears has too because I'm hoping he'll grow more, and work on them to make the concerns at least adequately playable. The reality is that we tumbled so far down the draft, that barring a trade up, or somone inexplicably falling past both Charlotte and Utah, we are going to be looking at prospects with huge issues no matter what:

Kon's lack of athleticism and 1 dimensionality.

Fears size, and horrific 3 pointer.

Maluach being raw as hell and not as athletic as hoped

Tre being a 1 dimensional scorer with little interest in the "work" piece of the game (defense, and driving inside). Empty Calorie scorer with limitations.

Carter Bryant playing about 35% fewer minutes than every other stud in the class. Why was he played so little comparatively, and he's raw as hell, an upside bet basically on his athleticism and raw potential.


Queen being borderline useless on defense and not being athletic enough perhaps to be as good offensively either (in fairness, I'm no longer worried about Queen being the pick, I don't think they're crazy enough to take him at 6 after that combine, a trade down maybe, not at 6).


All these guys have much bigger concerns than VJ and Harper, and far fewer than Flagg. Not sure about Bailey, I think Bailey gets a pass because of his profile and scouting perception of his potential, even though his performance was a range of uneven to outright crap at times.

But the tier drop to where we are opens the draft up to guys with gaping wide concerns in their game. No matter what direction we do, other than trading up to San Antonio, the prospect we will get will have rather large bust potential or chance at just hitting the floor of career trajectories. It's why I'd prefer to trade down for '26 assets and a lower pick. Barring trading up for Harper, Bailey or Edge, I don't really think it's worth it to stay at 6 considering the issues these guys have, I tend to think the upside angles of all of them are largely low end. I can just picture Fears becoming a floor general, but it's a hunch based on nothing but a feeling, and his age, not rationality. Tre just looks exactly like a disappointing never cares enough about defense guy who can shoot the heck out of the ball but never works on his issues, their interviews and the background they do on him will tell the story about whether that's likely, or not. He could be a MASSIVE worker, and I just don't know it, but the hunch I have is that he's that type because I've seen so many w/his profile just stick in the NBA on their skill and add nothing, if we take him, I pray I'm wrong.

Personally, I'd trade down and out, or up though, that's the only way you up the liklihood of something good happening in the next 13 months. Otherwise it's all hope and potentially cope.

[tontoz]

Tre drove a lot more than people who dont watch the games realize, he just passed a lot when the defense collapsed on him. Some of his best playmaking was on drives, drawing 2-3 defenders then dropping it off for a layup or dunk.

I did see some creative finishes. I also saw him get to the line much more as the season progressed. He had 4 games with double figure free throws, all in the 2nd half of the season.

[TheBlackCzar]

It really is the model isn't it...long, athletic defenders with quick, disruptive hands.

Last year's champs, Boston, also excelled on D, with above average defenders in Brown, Holiday, White, and Horford.

The OKC model is one that Dawkins is well aware of and helped to build. That's why I think Carter Bryant has a decent chance of being the Zards pick at 6. He's young, athletic, long, and elite on D.

One major catch. He is extremely limited off the dribble. A one-to-two max dribble guy at most. That's a ceiling limiting offensive factor and really tempers my excitement for him.

Agree that Bryant needs to get a lot better as a ball handler and improve his ability to create for himself. But I might just take the chance he’ll get better in those areas with coaching and experience.

The length, athleticism, and instincts and effort on D are already there and those are things you can’t coach.

Bryant has a nice stroke--and high, quick release--from 3pt range...and is said to have a high bball IQ, which shows up in some of the passes I’ve seen him make on the film I watched.

Not saying the Zards should take him at 6…but I wouldn’t be mad at them if they did.

Go watch the Carter Bryant - OG Anunoby comp breakdown...... Carter can't turn the corner, but OG can, so essentially another primarily jump shooting player, due to lacking ability to get to the rim...... He doesn't have the first step to get by people with any level of consistency....

[DCZards]

All these guys have much bigger concerns than VJ and Harper, and far fewer than Flagg. Not sure about Bailey, I think Bailey gets a pass because of his profile and scouting perception of his potential, even though his performance was a range of uneven to outright crap at times.

But the tier drop to where we are opens the draft up to guys with gaping wide concerns in their game. No matter what direction we do, other than trading up to San Antonio, the prospect we will get will have rather large bust potential or chance at just hitting the floor of career trajectories. It's why I'd prefer to trade down for '26 assets and a lower pick. Barring trading up for Harper, Bailey or Edge, I don't really think it's worth it to stay at 6 considering the issues these guys have, I tend to think the upside angles of all of them are largely low end.

I think the drop in tiers begins after Flagg and Harper. VJ is no more of a sure bet than Fears, Tre, Bailey, Maluach, etc. Any pick outside of the top 2 have about the same boom or bust potential, imo.

[pcbothwel]

There has obviously been a discussion about a trade down for team with Fears, but what about Tre.
To me, Houston is the PERFECT fit for him. They need shooting and a little playmaking from the perimeter, and Tre seems to be the perfect fit.
Texas kid that can play on or off ball and provide instant shooting.
Houston also has the kind of assets I would be interested in.
1) They have a 1st that isnt too far down of a drop in #10 (Bryant, Maluach, CMB, Essengue, etc)
2) They have a number of picks in 2027 & 2029 that could be lotto picks. In 2027, they have the Suns pick and swap rights with Brooklyn. Two top 20 picks. In 2029, they have the best 2 picks of Dallas, Houston, and Suns.

#6 <=> #10 + lower of their two 2027 picks is a nice haul. Maybe get into the 2029 picks by offering us a swap to sweeten the deal.

[The Consiglieri]

All these guys have much bigger concerns than VJ and Harper, and far fewer than Flagg. Not sure about Bailey, I think Bailey gets a pass because of his profile and scouting perception of his potential, even though his performance was a range of uneven to outright crap at times.

But the tier drop to where we are opens the draft up to guys with gaping wide concerns in their game. No matter what direction we do, other than trading up to San Antonio, the prospect we will get will have rather large bust potential or chance at just hitting the floor of career trajectories. It's why I'd prefer to trade down for '26 assets and a lower pick. Barring trading up for Harper, Bailey or Edge, I don't really think it's worth it to stay at 6 considering the issues these guys have, I tend to think the upside angles of all of them are largely low end.

I think the drop in tiers begins after Flagg and Harper. VJ is no more of a sure bet than Fears, Tre, Bailey, Maluach, etc. Any pick outside of the top 2 have about the same boom or bust potential, imo.

I know some posters, maybe it was you who said it, so not some lol, but there's been a few posts that have argued the tier drop is after 1.02, period, I don't agree.

I'm not basing this off my own analysis, since I'm not as skilled as you guys at breaking down these prospects, I've just read enough consensus reports to buy the idea that the draft is:

Tier 1:
Flagg

Tier 1B:
Harper

Tier 2:
VJ
Bailey

Tier 3:
Fears
Kon
Tre Johnson
Mystery Guy (maybe Maluach, maybe Bryant, maybe Sorber, who knows)

Tier 4: That flat group that kinda starts after the big 4, and kinda starts after around 7 or 8 and is about 15-20ish deep.

When I look into both scouts reports, insider reports from guys who are talking to scouts and GM's, and at the recruiting rankings from '24 (I made a big post about how the recruiting rankings might be helpful in breaking ties with guys in that 4-8 glut, but it was lost in the ether before I could post it), there's a clear difference between how Fears was ranked, how Kon was ranked, and how VJ, Harper, Bailey, Flagg, and admittedly even Tre were ranked.

I can't gain access to some of the recruiting ranking sources like 247, but I can see inside ESPN and Rivals.

If you guys are curious, and I think its valuable because all we have is 1 year of college sample size for most of these guys, so seeing another year of evaluation from recruiting services can help:
1. Flagg (Rivals/247/ESPN)
2. Ace Bailey (Rivals/ESPN)
3. Dylan Harper (ESPN)
3tie VJ Edgecombe (Rivals)
5.Tre Johnson (ESPN/Rivals)

Other Players of Interest:
Derek Queen (8 ESPN, 18 Rivals)
Kon K (18 ESPN, 9 Rivals)
Carter Bryant (20 ESPN, 30 Rivals)
Jase Richards (25 ESPN, 38 Rivals)
Tahad Petitford (35 ESPN, 24 Rivals)
Jeremiah Fears (40 ESPN, 44 Rivals)
T. Sorber (56 ESPN, 60 Rivals)


Not sure whats going on with Maluach, as I can see the top 4, before it tries to make me pay for their service (1.Flagg, 2. Bailey 3.Harper 4. Maluach), but Maluach is in their top 5, and not ranked by ESPN, or Rivals, so not sure whats up there and can only assumed ESPN and Rivals didn't evaluate him at all.

[TheBlackCzar]

Tre Johnson's defensive rating is a 109. Holy sheeittt that's terrible.

DND

Everything I've read from scouts quotes on him in terms of negatives has been:

The above posted from you, accented by a belief by some, that if he's got a good head/mental makeup and approach, he has the physical attributes to be a great defender with more want to/work.

The other negative is basically he was a non-entity in terms of driving to the hoop.

I haven't really heard any defenses of these liabilities from his fans, it kind of reminds me of Queen's fans either outright ignoring his issues in terms of mobility/feed and horrific defense, and never defending it with pro-Queen posts, or just soft pedaling how much of a problem it will be or how much of a problem it is.

In fairness, I soft peddle the issues Fears has too because I'm hoping he'll grow more, and work on them to make the concerns at least adequately playable. The reality is that we tumbled so far down the draft, that barring a trade up, or somone inexplicably falling past both Charlotte and Utah, we are going to be looking at prospects with huge issues no matter what:

Kon's lack of athleticism and 1 dimensionality.

Fears size, and horrific 3 pointer.

Maluach being raw as hell and not as athletic as hoped

Tre being a 1 dimensional scorer with little interest in the "work" piece of the game (defense, and driving inside). Empty Calorie scorer with limitations.

Carter Bryant playing about 35% fewer minutes than every other stud in the class. Why was he played so little comparatively, and he's raw as hell, an upside bet basically on his athleticism and raw potential.


Queen being borderline useless on defense and not being athletic enough perhaps to be as good offensively either (in fairness, I'm no longer worried about Queen being the pick, I don't think they're crazy enough to take him at 6 after that combine, a trade down maybe, not at 6).


All these guys have much bigger concerns than VJ and Harper, and far fewer than Flagg. Not sure about Bailey, I think Bailey gets a pass because of his profile and scouting perception of his potential, even though his performance was a range of uneven to outright crap at times.

But the tier drop to where we are opens the draft up to guys with gaping wide concerns in their game. No matter what direction we do, other than trading up to San Antonio, the prospect we will get will have rather large bust potential or chance at just hitting the floor of career trajectories. It's why I'd prefer to trade down for '26 assets and a lower pick. Barring trading up for Harper, Bailey or Edge, I don't really think it's worth it to stay at 6 considering the issues these guys have, I tend to think the upside angles of all of them are largely low end. I can just picture Fears becoming a floor general, but it's a hunch based on nothing but a feeling, and his age, not rationality. Tre just looks exactly like a disappointing never cares enough about defense guy who can shoot the heck out of the ball but never works on his issues, their interviews and the background they do on him will tell the story about whether that's likely, or not. He could be a MASSIVE worker, and I just don't know it, but the hunch I have is that he's that type because I've seen so many w/his profile just stick in the NBA on their skill and add nothing, if we take him, I pray I'm wrong.

Personally, I'd trade down and out, or up though, that's the only way you up the liklihood of something good happening in the next 13 months. Otherwise it's all hope and potentially cope.

One thing not mentioned about Fears is he's from Chicago.... Most Chi players don't initially have good jump shots because it's the Windy City and the air takes your shot and trashes it.... So those players tend to develop jumpers later on, but usually have very good at the rim ability, which Fears has.... He has a wonderful array of moves once he gets to the rim.....


I think Fears is going to be one of the best players out of this draft because of some of the following factors.... Just look at his predraft body, then look at him about a year ago... That's why they keep telling you about how young he is, because that type of physical development is enhanced by him being so young.... He jumps much higher than he did last yr.. Last summer clearly a below the rim player, to laying it up at the rim in a lot of his workouts...... His frame is built much more solidly than last yr....His 3 shot isn't great but mainly due to him needing to work on his off the dribble 3.... Spot up he's not too bad.... Because of what he shown in that regard is why I think his J needing work is greatly overblown... He has a good form and a quick release..... He has exceptional range on his shot... He can shoot to about 30' with ease (Made about 20+ 3's from 30'+)..... I think we should bet on an 18yr old who has a skill nobody but maybe AJ Johnson has on our current team.... That is the ability to get by guys consistently and get to the rim....

I'm watching the playoffs and the need for a lead guard who can get to the rim is glaringly obvious to see why these teams are still standing... You got SGA, Halliburton, Ant, and Brunson.... They do it all in very different ways but they all get to the rim with consistency...... Out of all the players who we could potentially get at our position, he seems to me to be the only one who has that skill... And he's very good at finishing with either hand when he does get to the rim, and he draws quite a bit of fouls..... We got Smart to help with his defense, and while he's not Trae Young level playmaker, he can pass and is a good decision maker, just not your traditional pass first PG..... He also plays his best against better competition.....

If Tre, Bryant or Queen had this ability, I'd be more optimistic about them but they are lacking this skill and I don't know if they will ever develop that skill, which to me is much more important than being able to shoot corner 3's or kickout 3's, because one skill is more reliable than the other....

OKC with SGA, JDubb and Chet are shooting so many shots from 1'-10'..... Minnesota is hoisting up 3's and OKC comes back down, gets into the interior and shoots a close range shot... They are beating Minny to death with this strategy..... Only Indiana is left of the 3point hoisting teams.... But even they have Halli, Siakam, Mathurin, TJ who all can get to the rim, or midrange...

Now look at our team.... Bub not a driver yet but TBD, Poole not really a driver, Kyshawn flashed a little bit of having potential, Bilal needs to work on his handles more and deepen his bag of moves, Sarr flashes but also needs to work on getting stronger and enhancing his bag as well, AJ shows ability to get around guys, and jump over them, but needs to keep building on his game as well......

[80sballboy]

If Tre Johnson or any of these guys like Fears, Maluach, Queen, Jakucionis, Kneuppel and Carter Bryant were perfect, they wouldn't have a chance to be drafted at No. 6, 7 or higher. That's probably why we're picking another overseas guy like Noa Essengue.