Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[Dark Faze]

My math is probably completely wrong, but assuming we drop Martin, Price, Collins and Barbosa that's close to 4 mil right there in savings, and then the MLE (5 mil?) to split between a new point and Webster.

Signing one to 4.5 and another to 4 should be doable when I look at what the market is demanding of these guys.

Could be completely wrong on if we even have an MLE though.

[WizardsWorld]

If we stay at #8 anyone have interest in offering it to the Rockets for Thomas Robinson ? He has barely cracked the lineup there too and coming back home to DC might be just what he needs to start ballin again ? We could throw them Singleton or Ves for a 2nd too just to get their contract off the books.

Example:
TRob and Rox 2nd for Pick #8 and Ves(or Singleton)

[nuposse04]

If we stay at #8 anyone have interest in offering it to the Rockets for Thomas Robinson ? He has barely cracked the lineup there too and coming back home to DC might be just what he needs to start ballin again ? We could throw them Singleton or Ves for a 2nd too just to get their contract off the books.

Example:
TRob and Rox 2nd for Pick #8 and Ves(or Singleton)

I'd ask for more then T-Rob...I'd consider trying to dump Nene on them for T-Rob and any of their stretch 4s +expirings if they felt they had no shot at Howard. Probably something to entertain closer to the draft...

[hands11]

With the tools available to us to trade up (future picks, young players, expirings) I don't see how you can justify drafting Len in the top 8 with guys like Dieng, Withey and Steven Adams available with late picks who probably have the same defensive ceiling as him.

If you want to play it safe and get a guy who will likely help the team through two contracts then Porter and Oladipo and Burke are probably the safest bets.

Were I GM I'd probably draft Oladipo, retain Ariza, Webster and Okafor through Nenes contract, trade any combo of Booker, Vesely, maybe a protected future pick for Dieng, and use whatever free agency savings we have to extend Webster (2 year deal) and get a quality backup PG.

Wall
Beal
Webster
Nene
Okafor

Bench
Preferrably Jack, Collison or Mayo
Oladipo
Ariza
Seraphin
Dieng

That team can survive a lot of injuries and is pretty deep and strong defensively.

We don't have enough cap exceptions to sign both Webster and a veteran combo guard.

Also, I don't think a combo of Booker and Vesely has any trade value at all. At the very least it would have to be Seraphin and a protected pick for Dieng

And we have come full circle again.

Its back to trading Kevin S or not. For me, I would take the risk to reset that position with a Dieng or Withey if it meant I was also getting CJM or VO with my first.

Then you can still target S4 Muscala and or Erik Murphy

Since they say they don't want to many draft picks, I would be surprised if they used the 2nd 2nd but I would. Why not add Pierre Jackson. Its a late 2nd 2nd and he is worth the pick to see if he can bring it to the NBA.

[hands11]

It's really coming down to Kelly Olynyk, Alex Len & C.J. McCollum for me. All have their flaws but should contribute in some way.

Olynyk offensively has a complete offensive skillset. You can't say that about a lot of bigs. His skillls should translate well to the next level.

Olynyk is probably the best offensive player in the NBA draft. Others may have more upside but right now he's ready to step and contribute offensively in an NBA setting.

The unanswered question is whether his defensive & rebounding can be passable enough at the next level. He likely needs to be paired with a Serge Ibaka type PF.

Alex Len is a solid prospect. The situation at Maryland didn't bring the best out of him but I noticed he really went out of his way to make an impact in certain games. Especially against the better competition. I think he may be a bit immature but he's a better prospect than Meyers Leonard, the 11th pick of last years draft who showed flashes of ability this past season with Portland.

C.J. McCollum is not quite on the level of Damian Lillard but he may be the best shot creator in this draft. He also should have the quicks the be more impacful on the defensive end of the court than Lillard. A safe bet IMO.

Hard to argue against any of that. Of the 3, Olynyk is my least favorite but I wouldn't upset if we ended up with him. But the real problem is still the bottleneck at PF. Someone has to go.

[rl25g]

My math is probably completely wrong, but assuming we drop Martin, Price, Collins and Barbosa that's close to 4 mil right there in savings, and then the MLE (5 mil?) to split between a new point and Webster.

Signing one to 4.5 and another to 4 should be doable when I look at what the market is demanding of these guys.

Could be completely wrong on if we even have an MLE though.

someone correct me if I am wrong
but i think you can use cap space or the MLE.
the MLE can only be used by teams who are over the cap.

[sfam]

My math is probably completely wrong, but assuming we drop Martin, Price, Collins and Barbosa that's close to 4 mil right there in savings, and then the MLE (5 mil?) to split between a new point and Webster.

Signing one to 4.5 and another to 4 should be doable when I look at what the market is demanding of these guys.

Could be completely wrong on if we even have an MLE though.

someone correct me if I am wrong
but i think you can use cap space or the MLE.
the MLE can only be used by teams who are over the cap.

That's my understanding as well. We are looking at signing someone for 5 mil with the MLE and 2 mil with the bi-annual exception. So no Jack AND Webster. And Jack has already made it clear he's staying at Golden State.

[nate33]

The mle counts against your cap unless you renounce it. You can't use both cap space and the mle (or the bae).

[Ruzious]

lulz

Fran Fraschilla was in love with Vesely

Nuff said

This and more this!!!!!

When you're right, yer right. Yer right.

Fran loved a 21 year old Vesely with no skills. And he doesn't get that an 18 year old Noel is going to get a helluvalot bigger and stronger. And he's so much more athletic than Len that isn't even funny. How heavy was Len when he first came to campus at Maryland? Zeller of UNC overpowered him. That's the skinnier Zeller who came to UNC at about 200 lbs - when his teammate Henson was less than 180 - looked like a human rubberband. 18 year olds get bigger. Fran is not good at evaluating prospects.

[stevemcqueen1]

Noel, with his slight frame, was mauled at times by physical SEC big men (who are marginal NBA prospects) like Florida's Patric Young and Tennessee's Jarnell Stokes. In fact, I was surprised to see how often Kentucky either double-teamed in the post or dug the ball out of there with their guards to protect Noel in one-on-one situations.

As an NBA big man, Noel will spend a lot of time defending in screen-and-roll situations on the perimeter. On those plays in college, I thought Noel's footwork and lateral quickness were average at best, and belied what is supposed to be elite athletic ability.

It's also worth noting that in the Tennessee game, Stokes fouled out in 16 minutes of play while Noel went on to put up 10pts/9reb/6blk/4st/2ast. The lone game where Noel faced Young, was the very game he hurt himself in and Young did most of his damage against Cauley-Stein.

I'm not trying to dispute FF, but Noel's thinness is apparent almost immediately and hardly insightful. He's not a beefy Andrew Bogut type player that Len is. However, there is room to grow there and hell look at what Ewing started out at and where he ended up. Noel has his strengths and weaknesses like any other player. It's just that the upside, especially in today's game - being able to deter penetrating guards outweighs the downside - being unable to body up on a physical low post option.

I mean, look at Ibaka. 1st team all-D getting gooned by Asik. And I think Noel would be a better man defender than ibaka.

However, I think it's almost a certainty that Len will shoot up the draft boards after he's measured. His physical stature is... immense.

Len isn't really a beefy type either. He got pushed around by James Michael McAdoo and we were questioning his strength all year too. And he was much skinnier just last year, he's changed his body a lot in that time.

All of the top bigs this year have strength concerns, and most of them are 18-20 years old. They'll all get bigger. They're talented, that's why they are legit NBA prospects despite being so young and thin.

You make a great point that the ability to close down the paint to penetrating perimeter players is more important than bodying up bigs and pushing them out of their spots nowadays.

And I think the Ole Miss game is important for evaluating Noel's potential against burly NBA caliber strength. Ole Miss had some of the strongest post players in the SEC and they got Noel into foul trouble early in the second half. Didn't matter, he went right at them, dominated the game and got six blocks after he picked up his fourth foul.

Only an idiot GM would take Len over Noel IMO and it doesn't speak well for Franchilla that he would.

I also don't see the good hands on Len he talks about. I actually don't think Len has the hand strength the other top bigs do.

I agree with you though that it's a lock Len shoots up the board after the measurements happen. It seems NBA teams already like him more than they probably should. He's got huge upside because of his huge frame. They'll talk themselves out of his flaws.

I also think it's a lock that Cody Zeller continues to be a far better basketball player than him throughout their careers.

[stevemcqueen1]

I like those two, Len would be my odd man out. CJ is a senior, and something Wall said after the season was that they can't get younger. CJ and Wall are probably the same age, so it's technically not getting younger. Considering our backcourt situation, CJ could fill the role of backup point or 2 guard, with Temple being the 5th guard in the rotation.

Well, for one thing, Wall should not, and does not, have any say in personnel decisions.

Also worth pointing out that listening to Wall and the other players is part of the reason we got stuck with Wittman. I think, if given the choice, vet players would almost always rather play with other vets than with raw young players with loads of talent.

For another thing, I'm sure Wall would appreciate having a good big man to play with throughout his career, and certainly wouldn't complain if we got another young player who was actually already good.

I like McCollum's game, but he is a reach at 8 IMO. If we're going for a backup perimeter player, I'd rather take Oladipo or Shabazz. They've got more upside IMO. And at least one should be available, and if not, then it means a better forward is probably available. Olynyk is a reach at 8 too. Len, maybe not, but I wouldn't take Len over Zeller if both were there.

[Wizardspride]

Fran loved a 21 year old Vesely with no skills. And he doesn't get that an 18 year old Noel is going to get a helluvalot bigger and stronger. And he's so much more athletic than Len that isn't even funny. How heavy was Len when he first came to campus at Maryland? Zeller of UNC overpowered him.

Fwiw, Len was like 210 pounds last season.

He gained 40lbs during the offseason.

[AFM]

He gained 40 lbs? Was he on the Blatche diet? Jesus

[stevemcqueen1]

I think one of Len or Bennett will fall to us. Detroit is NOT taking a big. They are desperate of wing help. Ditto the Kings (they traded for Patterson, have Thompson & Hayes signed longterm). The Kings also need wing help. Shabaaz and Oladipo should both be gone by the time we pick b/c of that.

I like your thinking, mhd, because Bennett and Len are the two players that I most want for the Zards...other than Noel, McLemore and Porter who will almost certainly be gone by pick #8. I also agree with Nate though that these are the top 7 picks currently. The only quibble I might have is with Oladipo who I think is the most likely one of these players to fall. I'm betting that Shabazz goes ahead of VO.

Noel
McLemore
Porter
Bennett
Burke
Len
Oladipo

I agree with those who would trade the 8th pick for the 14th and 21st pick, especially if the 7 guys above are all gone by the time the Zards draft at 8. In this draft, I think you could get almost as good a player with the 14th pick as you'd get with the 8th pick...so getting the 14th pick as well would be a real plus. But I doubt that a trade like that goes down...that's a trade that is more likely to happen in the NFL draft as others have pointed out.

This is not a deep class. I would much rather draft Shabazz or Zeller at 8 than trade down for some future role players and bench warmers. We've got teens and twenties style players filling out the bench already with Singleton, Booker, and Seraphin. We need quality over quantity at this point. We are much more likely to get that at 8 than 14 or 21.

If we want a second first rounder, I would rather trade up or buy one than move down. We earned this mid lotto pick, we should use it.

[gambitx777]

If we stay at #8 anyone have interest in offering it to the Rockets for Thomas Robinson ? He has barely cracked the lineup there too and coming back home to DC might be just what he needs to start ballin again ? We could throw them Singleton or Ves for a 2nd too just to get their contract off the books.

Example:
TRob and Rox 2nd for Pick #8 and Ves(or Singleton)

No, I really have no interest in T rob.

I would rather go after terrence jones than T Rob at this point. and keep our pick

[Wizardspride]

He gained 40 lbs? Was he on the Blatche diet? Jesus

Yeah, It's crazy. He's 250 now.



But what's really crazy is the fact that he could carry another 25lbs or so easily.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ter ... terrapins/

No Terp has undergone a more drastic and noticeable change than Alex Len, who morphed from a lanky 7-foot-1 center into a bona fide top-five NBA draft prospect, putting on around 40 pounds this summer, most of it muscle. Len chowed down more than 6,000 calories per day, most of it sourced from his favorite American eateries.

A typical day began at 8 a.m. with a Muscle Milk weight-gain shake and a peanut butter and jelly sandwich. At 10:45 a.m. Len guzzled another shake, then ate two chargrilled Chick-Fil-A sandwiches for lunch at 1 p.m. At 3 p.m., it’s microwaving two frozen burritos for a pre-workout snack then another weight-gain shake at 4:30 p.m. Per an NCAA rule, the team can provide shakes, so long as less than 30 percent of its calories come from protein.

At 7:30 p.m., Len eats dinner at Boston Market or Chipotle: chicken with sweet potato and green beans or a burrito bowl, respectively. Once, Tarp discovered that Len’s iron intake was low, so he added steak to Len’s burrito bowl order and fixed the problem. Len’s day wrapped up at 9:45 p.m. with Greek yogurt and another PB&J.

[Ruzious]

Gotta laugh at there actually being an NCAA rule about what percentage of fat comes from protein from shakes provided by a university. At some point, all that fast food, PBJ sammiches, and 4,000 calorie shakes could become problematic. Len already lumbers up and down court (as opposed to Zeller - who runs much faster). Part of MD's problem was they had good transition wing players who had very few opportunities to run - and those players generally stunk in half court sets.

[fishercob]

I agree with you though that it's a lock Len shoots up the board after the measurements happen. It seems NBA teams already like him more than they probably should. He's got huge upside because of his huge frame. They'll talk themselves out of his flaws.

I'm really looking forward to the DX Video scouting report on Len (due soon) because I'd like to see and understand some of those flaws better. I'm not taking the position that Len is in any way a perfect prospect or anywhere near can't miss. But so far, the criticism I hear of Len are "Fran Frascilla liked Jan Vesely and he likes Len too, so Len sucks," and "Len lumbers down the court." Call me crazy, but those aren't the types of criticisms I take particularly seriously.

I agree that his frame -- and that he projects to be a huge guy -- is a big part of his upside. All things equal, you;d rather have the bigger guy than the smaller one (understanding that all things are never equal), right? The other thing that would appear to be suggest Len's upside is the considerable improvements that he has already made. That he showed up two years ago not being able to speak the language and is now fluent suggests he's dedicated. That he's packed on 40 pounds and has stuck to a regimen of eating -- even if it's not gourmet -- similarly demonstrates dedication, discipline, and that Len is willing to do what he needs to in order to improve. And of course, Len's sophomore numbers were way, way better than his frosh season.

I started to look at Len in comparison to Olynyk, as many seem to be of the belief that Olynyk is the most NBA-ready of the draft's bigs -- certainly offensively.

Lenvs. Olynyk (annoying that you can't compare players side by side like on B-R).

A few interesting notes on Olynyk: He's 22 and redshirted as a freshman. The two seasons before this he played just 12 and 13 mpg. NOt sure why (is Mark Few a bad coach? ). His rate stats were similar last season to this season, but this year his usage went (way) up, as did his TS%, assists and blocks, while his turnovers went down. His numbers this year were fabulous.

This season, Len's rebounding numbers were very similar to Olynyk's. Len's rebounding numbers blow away Olynyk's from 2 seasons ago when Olynyk was the age Len is now. In fact, apart from assists, there's basically nothing Olynyk did better two years ago than Len did this year. Len also turned the ball over less and blocked more shots than Olynyk did this season.

So, I'm a little concerned about the fact that Olynyk is 22 and has had just the one great season. I need to understand that better. As nate has said all along, I don't believe a big man can be a "building block" without being a really strong defender, and I don't like what I see in the scouting reports or the numbers from Olynyk in that regard.

So while I think Olynyk is more NBA ready on offense today, I'm not convinced that the gap is huge and I think there's reason to believe that Len would close it quickly. And I think that Len's combo of physical traits and age suggest an upside that Olynyk doesn't have. I think Len is a really good prospect.

[fishercob]

I think there is zero chance that the Wizards are going to trade the pick for more draft picks. In fact, I will be shocked if the Wizard keep the pick. Given the Wizards success in the second half of the season and knowing EG, he is going to try to package some of our current players with the pick to get back a vet who can contribute now. Not saying that this is the right move....only that its the type of move EG will make.

I agree that trading down is unlikely. I also agree that trading the pick is a possibility, I'd expect the current players in the package to be from the likes of Vesely, Booker, Singleton and Seraphin.

Depending on who is on the board -- and more importantly, who we get back -- this could be a course I'd support.

[sfam]

I agree with you though that it's a lock Len shoots up the board after the measurements happen. It seems NBA teams already like him more than they probably should. He's got huge upside because of his huge frame. They'll talk themselves out of his flaws.

I'm really looking forward to the DX Video scouting report on Len (due soon) because I'd like to see and understand some of those flaws better. I'm not taking the position that Len is in any way a perfect prospect or anywhere near can't miss. But so far, the criticism I hear of Len are "Fran Frascilla liked Jan Vesely and he likes Len too, so Len sucks," and "Len lumbers down the court." Call me crazy, but those aren't the types of criticisms I take particularly seriously.

I agree that his frame -- and that he projects to be a huge guy -- is a big part of his upside. All things equal, you;d rather have the bigger guy than the smaller one (understanding that all things are never equal), right? The other thing that would appear to be suggest Len's upside is the considerable improvements that he has already made. That he showed up two years ago not being able to speak the language and is now fluent suggests he's dedicated. That he's packed on 40 pounds and has stuck to a regimen of eating -- even if it's not gourmet -- similarly demonstrates dedication, discipline, and that Len is willing to do what he needs to in order to improve. And of course, Len's sophomore numbers were way, way better than his frosh season.

I started to look at Len in comparison to Olynyk, as many seem to be of the belief that Olynyk is the most NBA-ready of the draft's bigs -- certainly offensively.

Lenvs. Olynyk (annoying that you can't compare players side by side like on B-R).

A few interesting notes on Olynyk: He's 22 and redshirted as a freshman. The two seasons before this he played just 12 and 13 mpg. NOt sure why (is Mark Few a bad coach? ). His rate stats were similar last season to this season, but this year his usage went (way) up, as did his TS%, assists and blocks, while his turnovers went down. His numbers this year were fabulous.

This season, Len's rebounding numbers were very similar to Olynyk's. Len's rebounding numbers blow away Olynyk's from 2 seasons ago when Olynyk was the age Len is now. In fact, apart from assists, there's basically nothing Olynyk did better two years ago than Len did this year. Len also turned the ball over less and blocked more shots than Olynyk did this season.

So, I'm a little concerned about the fact that Olynyk is 22 and has had just the one great season. I need to understand that better. As nate has said all along, I don't believe a big man can be a "building block" without being a really strong defender, and I don't like what I see in the scouting reports or the numbers from Olynyk in that regard.

So while I think Olynyk is more NBA ready on offense today, I'm not convinced that the gap is huge and I think there's reason to believe that Len would close it quickly. And I think that Len's combo of physical traits and age suggest an upside that Olynyk doesn't have. I think Len is a really good prospect.

I think Len wins over Olynyk easily on potential alone. The better comparison might be Zeller vs Olynyk. Zeller is only 20 and looks better on D, but Olynyk has an outside change at improving well enough at the 3 that he might end up a decent stretch 4 after a few years.