Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[gambitx777]

From wiretap, via Chad Ford:

"The Orlando Magic are prepared to select Nerlens Noel with the second overall pick if the Cleveland Cavaliers pass on him at No. 1.

The Cavaliers are reportedly undecided on whether to select Noel.

"If the draft was held today, Noel would be our first choice," one source from the Magic told ESPN.

The Magic scouted Noel closely during the season and have been doing extensive background work on him over the past few months."


As always, you never know what you can believe at this time of year, but this one seems pretty credible, IMO. If that's the case, then we can stop worrying about who to draft if Noel and Porter both fall to us. It appears that the only way we're getting Noel is if we trade up, which seems pretty doubtful as well.

We're clearly getting Porter.

Thank the lord. Let them have him, Let's take porter and hope he plays the way we think he will.

[Knighthonor]

From wiretap, via Chad Ford:

"The Orlando Magic are prepared to select Nerlens Noel with the second overall pick if the Cleveland Cavaliers pass on him at No. 1.

The Cavaliers are reportedly undecided on whether to select Noel.

"If the draft was held today, Noel would be our first choice," one source from the Magic told ESPN.

The Magic scouted Noel closely during the season and have been doing extensive background work on him over the past few months."


As always, you never know what you can believe at this time of year, but this one seems pretty credible, IMO. If that's the case, then we can stop worrying about who to draft if Noel and Porter both fall to us. It appears that the only way we're getting Noel is if we trade up, which seems pretty doubtful as well.

We're clearly getting Porter.

Thank the lord. Let them have him, Let's take porter and hope he plays the way we think he will.

Huh? I am starting to believe many of you are simply playing the attachment game on some of these picks, and not what's best for the Wizards.

I was attached to the OP draft as well being that he is the star from GT. but lets drop that for a moment and look at who is best for the Wizards, not simply who we are attached to the most emotionally to be a Wizard.

[MikeTheKid]

You guys already quoted Chad Ford so Im not gonna quote it again but all signs are leading to Otto falling right to us barring some unforseen idiotic trade. Lets do it, then draft Erik Murphy and then we know EG will stash 1 away in Europe that will never come over!

[Knighthonor]

You guys already quoted Chad Ford so Im not gonna quote it again but all signs are leading to Otto falling right to us barring some unforseen idiotic trade. Lets do it, then draft Erik Murphy and then we know EG will stash 1 away in Europe that will never come over!

By the way scan somebody explain the benefit of doing the euro stashing concept with drafts? I like to understand how and why it works.

[rockymac52]

You guys already quoted Chad Ford so Im not gonna quote it again but all signs are leading to Otto falling right to us barring some unforseen idiotic trade. Lets do it, then draft Erik Murphy and then we know EG will stash 1 away in Europe that will never come over!

By the way scan somebody explain the benefit of doing the euro stashing concept with drafts? I like to understand how and why it works.

Sure thing. Without going into too much detail, the general concept is that you draft a player (normally an international player, although not necessarily) and then he plays the next season or two (or more sometimes) overseas. While he's playing overseas, the team that drafted him owns his "draft rights," but he is not an active member of that team, so he does not have a salary that counts against the NBA salary cap. If he comes to the NBA after 1 or 2 years, I believe he's still on his rookie scale contract from that point on. However, if it takes him a few more years to come over, then I think his rookie scale contract "expires" and he can then negotiate a contract with the NBA team, but still only that team that drafted him, because they have his draft rights.

There are several reasons teams might want to draft and stash:

1. The team is already a legit contender and doesn't have any glaring holes to fill with their pick, so they can take a player who will need a few years to develop, and then he can join them in the future when they might have a bigger need for him.

2. The team is near or above the luxury tax figure, and they don't want to pay the luxury tax, so instead of simply selling their draft pick for cash, they draft a prospect and let him play overseas for a few years, so he doesn't count against the NBA team's salary cap in the meantime, but eventually when the team's salary cap/luxury tax situation is a little bit better, then he'll join the team.

3. Often times when teams pick in the 20-30 range, there are international prospects still available who actually are expected to be top 10 players in the draft class, but it's well known that they will be playing overseas for the next few seasons, and they fall in the draft because the teams at the top of the draft typically can't afford to wait several years to get their player, as they need to begin getting their prospects minutes immediately. Patient teams are able to draft an international prospect late in the 1st round (or in the 2nd), let him develop overseas for a few seasons, then when he's ready for the NBA, they are getting a top 10 talent at a fraction of the cost.

[hands11]

My top 3 potential busts in the lottery:

SG Ben McLemore - depends on where he's drafted. The higher he goes, the harder for him to live up to the pressure. He'll be nothing more than a role player at best. I'm almost certain of it. Most likely he'll disappoint because he'll be too passive & timid and he'll be severely limited by his weak handles. I would not be surprised to see his sweet shooting stroke go awry for extended periods of time due to a lack of confidence.

PF Anthony Bennett - Like many tweeners before him, I think he'll really struggle to make an impact defensively. The lack of ideal length is often a career killer. What makes it even worse is the terrible effort in defending. I've also heard about him being a slow learner, that he struggles to pick up schemes and concepts. This may also infect his offensive upside as his awareness appears suspect without the ball. On the flipside, he's got some offensive tools that immediately fit the stretch 4 concept... the problem is, it may not be enough to offset the negatives.

CE Steven Adams - Scouts love his size, frame, athleticism & willingness to be physical. I'm worried about his overall lack of skill, questionable hands, poor finishing ability and overall basketball awareness. I think there's little chance he ever develops into anything offensively with no real skill and the inability to cleanly catch passes. Defensively he tries hard, but gets lost pretty easily. He honestly looks like a guy that's barely been coached his career and if you read into his background it explains everything. Upside wise, he could be a very solid low post defender in time, my gut tells me his value won't be realized at best until he's on his 2nd or 3rd team.

That why in a draft like this, I have leaned more toward to pure plays like Burke and VO.

Zeller as a PF with all his skills, work ethic and size is also hard to see as a bust. Kid just works to hard and already has to many pro level moves. And he is a winner. Not saying he will be a AS, but he will find a way to be productive.

Kind of how Otto will find a way to be productive. Specially with his defense. Len will also become a functional two way center. It may take time but he will stick around.

CJM looks like a great 3rd guard. Again. He is a winner and he has already done it.

Unlike CCJ, I think this is a weak draft. At least if you are looking for far value starters at the top of it.

Burke, VO, Zeller, CJM, Otto are your best bets unless you want more risk. Then you look at Len and Noel.



McLemore ? I think it will largely depend on where he goes. He needs to right environment to groom him and build up his mind. Washington would actually work well for him. Beal would take him under his wing. So I think the Wizards could get more out of McLemore then a lot of other teams.

[hands11]

My draft board remains the same. 1-Noel 2-Porter 3-Oladipo. No need to overthink this.

I was starting to consider Bennett about 10 days ago because of the offense, but was leaning against it because of the defense. This seals it - he's off my board completely at #3. I'm going with nate's list, and expecting Porter.

Porter is the safe pick, but the kid can end up being an elite defender to boot.

Well Bennett was a topic for a while and I think some people got sucked in.

I never had him on my list of picks for the Wizards. He got checked off the first time I saw him lost of D and with no effort to get back down court. Those are deal breakers for me. So I'm not surprised he has gone Hot Plate on us. That stuff goes hand in hand.

But I like that logic. If you didn't like him at 8, why like him at 3.

Well at least we can finally put this Bennett talk to rest.

[hands11]

Some very interesting if not outright great draft prospect breakdowns from a Jazz commentator:

Zeller:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjcb6ENUIys[/youtube]

CJM:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqxN2KL6VJI&list=PLdAyXyJDMMnXYletG1XCDbVOjXgY7hB4k[/youtube]

There are also videos for Shane Larkin, Michael Carter-Kidd, and Dennis Schroeder. I guess Utah's looking for a pg.


Here's an just a workout video of Plumlee. Looks Spencer Hawesian.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McZEfQf_GYk[/youtube]

Thanks for posting that. I listened to this guy before and enjoyed it but I lost the link to his page.

Yeah, his comments on Zeller are interesting. Seems like a more skilled Ves in a lot of ways.

[hands11]

Interesting non-Deng commentary from http://www.grantland.com:

No matter what roles Wall or Beal played (both came off the bench for a few games), the Wizards posted a point differential of plus-4.84, the equivalent of a 55-win team over a full season. And though a 25-game stretch isn’t something Washington can hang its hat on, it’s certainly an encouraging sign. That trio, combined with Nene and Emeka Okafor, also combined to form the league's most effective five-man unit that played at least 140 minutes together, per NBA.com.

Unlike some of the more desperate teams, Washington doesn’t necessarily need to hit a home run at the top of the draft, but to break through from mid-standings irrelevance, the Wizards probably have to avoid coming up empty. If the team can get an impact player with the third pick while also finding a competent backup point guard with one of its second-round picks, the Wizards have the opportunity to completely change the course of their franchise. No pressure, right?

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... -nba-draft

Sounds like stuff I have posted. They don't need to swing for the fences here and they already have a solid starting 5 plus Trevor A. Just don't mess it up and add the best value asset. Steady as she goes.

[hands11]

My main takeaway is this is yet another source I trust extolling Porter's virtues. This will be a good draft if he slips to three and we nab him.

Agree on Porter. I don't think CLE will take him #1, but what do we know about Orlando's intentions? I've always assumed they'd take McLemore or Oladipo, but they do have longterm money tied up in Afflalo at SG. Seems like Porter could step in immediately for them at SF. They are also rumored to be interested in adding a young PG, and in this draft I don't think taking Burke #2 can really be considered a reach.

What would really worry me is talk of Orlando trading down, especially with teams like NOLA/DET/MIN that already have bigs so they wouldn't be trading up for somebody like Len or Zeller.

Right. I can easily see them going with Burke. He would be perfect for them. They need a captain to run the ship.

But how is Porter stepping in at SF when they have T Harris.

[hands11]

I'd be concerned about McLemore never really developing into anything more than a role player. He gets too passive in big moments. Worse his prep right now is horrid. I would worry about his long term commitment. But the big concern for me is Len and his ankles.

Why are you so worried about Len? He had a stress fracture. No worse then Wall and Beal. Except he took preemptive measures and had surgery. Noel had a ACL injury and a growth plate injury. That know injuries in 4 years and he is only 19. Seems like that would be the one to worry about regarding health.

Wall and Beal had stress reactions, not fractures. Big difference.

Wall said he had a fracture. Its was never really clear what exactly happened as we got mixed information.

[sfam]

Who do you see bust in ?

I'd be concerned about McLemore never really developing into anything more than a role player. He gets too passive in big moments. Worse his prep right now is horrid. I would worry about his long term commitment. But the big concern for me is Len and his ankles.

Why are you so worried about Len? He had a stress fracture. No worse then Wall and Beal. Except he took preemptive measures and had surgery. Noel had a ACL injury and a growth plate injury. Thats two injuries in 4 years and he is only 19. Seems like that would be the one to worry about regarding health.

Now granted Len is bigger then Wall and Beal but if he takes if time to recover and trains well, he should be ok. My bigger concern about Len is, does he has a beast mode in his personality.

If Len doesn't have a Beast mode, he'll still get on the floor. If his ankles go all Oden on him, it'll be a wasted pick. Wall and Beal aren't 7 feet - this is why its different

[sfam]

My draft board remains the same. 1-Noel 2-Porter 3-Oladipo. No need to overthink this.

I was starting to consider Bennett about 10 days ago because of the offense, but was leaning against it because of the defense. This seals it - he's off my board completely at #3. I'm going with nate's list, and expecting Porter.

Porter is the safe pick, but the kid can end up being an elite defender to boot.

Well Bennett was a topic for a while and I think some people got sucked in.

I never had him on my list of picks for the Wizards. He got checked off the first time I saw him lost of D and with no effort to get back down court. Those are deal breakers for me. So I'm not surprised he has gone Hot Plate on us. That stuff goes hand in hand.

But I like that logic. If you didn't like him at 8, why like him at 3.

Well at least we can finally put this Bennett talk to rest.

I'm happily sucked in and still hope we select Bennett, so no, talk is still happenin.

[NortheastWiz]

You guys already quoted Chad Ford so Im not gonna quote it again but all signs are leading to Otto falling right to us barring some unforseen idiotic trade. Lets do it, then draft Erik Murphy and then we know EG will stash 1 away in Europe that will never come over!

Im on the Erik Murphy train too, but we havent even had him in for workouts.

[rockymac52]

You guys already quoted Chad Ford so Im not gonna quote it again but all signs are leading to Otto falling right to us barring some unforseen idiotic trade. Lets do it, then draft Erik Murphy and then we know EG will stash 1 away in Europe that will never come over!

Im on the Erik Murphy train too, but we havent even had him in for workouts.

This reminds me... I've been wondering about the significance of workouts. Does anyone have any information on the history of the Wizards draft picks and whether or not we brought the player we picked in for a workout prior to the draft? I'm very curious as to the results. I suspect that with top ten picks, we'd normally bring in the guy for a workout since it's such an important pick, but at the same time, we have a lot of resources on the guys being picked top ten, so if we can't coordinate a workout date, then we can still feel pretty comfortable evaluating them and drafting them even if we didn't bring them in for a workout. I'm more curious about the correlation with 2nd rounders.

[stevemcqueen1]

I'm happily sucked in and still hope we select Bennett, so no, talk is still happenin.

I too think Bennett is worthy of discussion and should be in consideration. I really like his potential and I like his fit here in terms of skill set and roster construction.

[sfam]

I'm happily sucked in and still hope we select Bennett, so no, talk is still happenin.

I too think Bennett is worthy of discussion and should be in consideration. I really like his potential and I like his fit here in terms of skill set and roster construction.

More to the point, he's the second most likely person to be drafted by the Wizards, well above Oladipo, for instance. So why wouldn't we talk about him?

[Dat2U]

I think we've talked about Bennett at length. What more is there really to say?

[leswizards]

If nivek is right, and Oladipo is the BPA in the draft, I think I am on board with the Wizards drafting him should he be available. I know there are concerns about being able to get enough minutes with him playing the same position as Beal, but I think I have come up with a way it could be done. If Satoransky is NBA ready and capable of playing 12 MPG as an offensive PG/defensive SF, then the Wizards could set a rotation where Wall plays 36 MPG as a PG, Beal plays 36 MPG as a SG, Oladipo plays 36 MPG with 12 mpg as a SG, 12 mpg as a pure SF, and 12 MPG as a defensive PG/offensive SF (all MPG are approxiamite).

[Rafael122]

You guys already quoted Chad Ford so Im not gonna quote it again but all signs are leading to Otto falling right to us barring some unforseen idiotic trade. Lets do it, then draft Erik Murphy and then we know EG will stash 1 away in Europe that will never come over!

Im on the Erik Murphy train too, but we havent even had him in for workouts.

This reminds me... I've been wondering about the significance of workouts. Does anyone have any information on the history of the Wizards draft picks and whether or not we brought the player we picked in for a workout prior to the draft? I'm very curious as to the results. I suspect that with top ten picks, we'd normally bring in the guy for a workout since it's such an important pick, but at the same time, we have a lot of resources on the guys being picked top ten, so if we can't coordinate a workout date, then we can still feel pretty comfortable evaluating them and drafting them even if we didn't bring them in for a workout. I'm more curious about the correlation with 2nd rounders.

I don't know if the Wizards are going to be picking in the 2nd round. The guys they brought in sound like late 2nd to undrafted free agent/summer league/training camp invite type of players. I mean I guess we could watch out for James Southerland or Jackie Carmichael, maybe Allen Crabbe if we trade back into the first round.