Official Trade Thread - Part XXVI

[nate33]

Ariza for Asik would be awesome. I'm starting to think that Morey might blink first in this standoff. He wants a ton for Asik but nobody is buying at that price. Ultimately, Ariza is going to help him win more games than Asik sitting on the bench.

I agree that our next task would be to move Gortat, but I hope we can get more back than just Marion. At the very least, send him to OKC for Perkins and a young player/pick. Would New Orleans trade us Ryan Anderson for Gortat? Gortat and Davis would make a very good front court combo. That would be a wet dream:

PG Wall
SG Beal
SF Webster
PF Anderson/Nene
C Asik/Nene

Need some defense at wing, but hopefully Porter and Rice pan out.

[Village Idiot]

Ariza for Asik would be awesome. I'm starting to think that Morey might blink first in this standoff. He wants a ton for Asik but nobody is buying at that price. Ultimately, Ariza is going to help him win more games than Asik sitting on the bench.

I agree that our next task would be to move Gortat, but I hope we can get more back than just Marion. At the very least, send him to OKC for Perkins and a young player/pick. Would New Orleans trade us Ryan Anderson for Gortat? Gortat and Davis would make a very good front court combo.

Thomas Robinson and Joel Freeland for Gortat? Robinson could get a lot more chance to blossom back home in DC while in Portland he's stuck behind Aldridge. Freeland has proven to be a serviceable back-up C.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Real easy yes on Robinson/Freeland for Gortat.

Sink or swim playing Seraphin, Booker, Vesely, Robinson, and Freeland with however much Nene has left.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ariza for Asik would be awesome. I'm starting to think that Morey might blink first in this standoff. He wants a ton for Asik but nobody is buying at that price. Ultimately, Ariza is going to help him win more games than Asik sitting on the bench.

I agree that our next task would be to move Gortat, but I hope we can get more back than just Marion. At the very least, send him to OKC for Perkins and a young player/pick. Would New Orleans trade us Ryan Anderson for Gortat? Gortat and Davis would make a very good front court combo. That would be a wet dream:

PG Wall
SG Beal
SF Webster
PF Anderson/Nene
C Asik/Nene

Need some defense at wing, but hopefully Porter and Rice pan out.

Seems to me Gortat for Asik makes the most sense. I believe Marcin was with Orlando behind Dwight Howard when SVG advanced that team far in the playoffs.

Instead of Anderson for Gortat, seems to me new coaching might want Ariza back. Anderson for Ariza seems most straightforward.

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[Village Idiot]

Real easy yes on Robinson/Freeland for Gortat.

Sink or swim playing Seraphin, Booker, Vesely, Robinson, and Freeland with however much Nene has left.

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So you would do that independent of an Ariza for Asik trade?

[payitforward]

A lot of posts but few so balanced and comprehensive on why EG has earned the criticism, vitriol, etc. Payitforward, that is a HOF-worthy post.

Grunfeld is no better than lucky that he wasn't fired long ago. I hold his work as Wizards GM as a prime example of favoritism allowing ineptitude to reign gainfully employed.

The Wizards are paying Blatche and Shannon Brown. They hope to trade for a backup PG, while Kendall Marshall is a fine backup and even starter for the Lakers. They are paying two seasons of BAE money to Maynor, and because of that they could not afford DeJuan Blair, who WANTED to be a Wizard this year before he was signed by Dallas. Instead of waiting for the right time to trade Okafor, the Wizards can now wait for the Suns to do so as the owners of a 1st round pick for taking Okafor. Miles Plumlee won't get Gortat's asking price at C, but he's a good bet to be as good.

Grunfeld never traded players like Vesely and Seraphin and Singleton and Booker for a player like either Plumlee. Now all those guys are unrestricted free agents, soon to play elsewhere most likely. Grunfeld has made a few egregious mistakes.

He's done a fine job creating the most important thing to keep his job: A perception of the Wizards being able to make the playoffs and remain competitive thereafter. Three things that are not noticed by casual observation: 1) Nene's steep decline; 2) Roster uncertainties with both Ariza and Gortat due for huge raises; and, 3) Completely mismanaged development of every rookie contract player except Beal by Randy Wittman. To heck with the future. Coach and GM are in survive to get fat contracts this year mode.

The Wizards are mediocre and the best they can hope is make some darn good offseason trades. None of their young free agents should stick around. Perhaps some D-League prospects can make a better bench next season. They are not going about long range planning with the best wisdom. Instead, EG is being myopic, penny wise but pound foolish. Ted Leonsis owns the Wizards and butts will pay for seats to view the team. The Wizards won't win big but the owner and all the others will make fat cash.

If EG or Leonsis read this I want them to know the Wizards can do BETTER. They can win, too, if they make better decisions.

Right back at you, CCJ. And in fact your points are even more revealing than the ones I made.

Another point worth mentioning is the difference I've noted over and over between the question whether a player is "good" and whether the deal made to acquire the player was a "good" move.

Ariza offers the perfect example. He has been terrific for us, and his level of production has been a bargain at the salary we've paid him. In that sense he's like Webster, whom Ernie signed as a FA.

But for Webster Ernie gave up nothing -- except his bargain salary (obviously). And even if one thinks we overpaid him on his current deal, he has played at a level well worth the $5+m annual salary he makes.

Ariza, on the other hand, we acquired in a package deal with Okafor, and we gave up a huge amount of flexibility and rebuilding-maneuvering-room in the deal. Had we traded Lewis to NO for Ariza and picks and exceptions to make up the salary difference, I'd have been delighted by the deal.

But that's not what we did. Instead we took on the big salary of a late-career veteran, and it left us with no way to acquire young, developing players in free agency (hence Harrington and Maynor). Had he stayed healthy, we'd be able to return to the rebuilding process now, but he didn't (and that was not a surprise).

So we cost ourselves yet another rebuilding asset to get Gortat, and we find ourselves stuck with an over-priced roster and the need to re-sign guys who are good but not the kind of players who will help us move towards contending for a title in the next few years (while Wall is at his prime and Beal will be entering his).

Congratulations to Ernie and Ted on "25-27 and wow we're going to make the playoffs in the East." I'd rather my analysis be wrong instead of right, to tell the truth. Unfortunately it's right not wrong.

[payitforward]

What's so wrong about giving up a second round pick for a serviceable backup for Wall like Beno...so JW doesn't completely get worn out by April. It's clear that Temple and Maynor aren't getting it done as backups.

Yes, the signing of Maynor was a mistake...a BIG one as it turns out. But do you now stand pat or do you lick your wounds and move on?

Edit to add: And rumor has it that the Spurs are also pursuing Beno. Isn't that the gold standard?

How many times do we have to make the same mistake before you starting thinking about moves like this in a different way, Zards?

The Spurs are in a position to challenge for a title, but they won't be for long. And they are battling injuries to key older players. It makes perfect sense for them to be interested in Udrih. Their time-frame is NOW -- and a very short now at that.

We need every single future-oriented asset we can muster. We need that Round 2 pick, because it helps a little bit to build the future. It is ridiculous to give that away for a mediocre, expiring 31-year old PG who'll give us 15 minutes a game for 30 games and then maybe 12 minutes a game during the 5-6 games it takes us to get bounced out of the playoffs -- and then be gone (probably to the Spurs for next year, costing them only his salary -- no future pick: they have a good GM unlike the Wizards).

[payitforward]

If the Wizards want to give up Harrington [i.e. for Udrih], then I have no problem with that. It's junk for junk.

I'd go for that in a New York minute -- -- of course. Harrington is worthless.

[payitforward]

Ariza for Asik is a no brainer to me.

You bet! But it won't happen, because it might impede our "miracle season!"

[gambitx777]

I think the main thing is that Beno is really not that good. He's getting spotty playing time in NY for a reason, I think there are better options open than him. Like clearing a spot and bringing in Rodrigue Beaubois, using that pick and cash to get pierre jackson, Going after Vasquez, Or call up Myck Kabongo, Maalik Wayns or Dee Bost. Not only are they all younger and probably as good or better than Beno at this point. but they are all better for the future of the team as well.

[dckingsfan]

I think there are two paradigms in which to evaluate trades with our current FO.

Paradigm One (PO) - Reality: Ted has made making the playoffs goal #1. Basically, you want your job, make the playoffs. So EG/Witt are on the hook for that short-term goal.

Paradigm Two (PT) - Long Term Success/Vision: Ted would like long-term success but not at the expense of his short-term goal.

So, Udrih for a 2nd round pick in PO - no brainer. Udrih for a 2nd round pick in PT - no way.

You can look at the Gortat trade the same way. No brainer in PO, no way in PT.

[Rafael122]

I think there are two paradigms in which to evaluate trades with our current FO.

Paradigm One (PO) - Reality: Ted has made making the playoffs goal #1. Basically, you want your job, make the playoffs. So EG/Witt are on the hook for that short-term goal.

Paradigm Two (PT) - Long Term Success/Vision: Ted would like long-term success but not at the expense of his short-term goal.

So, Udrih for a 2nd round pick in PO - no brainer. Udrih for a 2nd round pick in PT - no way.

You can look at the Gortat trade the same way. No brainer in PO, no way in PT.

Unless the Wizards go on a massive losing streak, they're making the playoffs. Someone on here posted that if the Wiz went 10-20 there's still a chance they get the 7th or 8th seed.

Trading Ariza won't diminish their playoff chances, I think the front office (as evident by the Zach Lowe article) realize Ariza is their biggest trade chip, they can probably get a player that can be productive today and in the future, and if played right, could probably get a first round pick out of it. I honestly don't think they expected Ariza to have the season he is having, cash in now while you still can.

[DCZards]

What's so wrong about giving up a second round pick for a serviceable backup for Wall like Beno...so JW doesn't completely get worn out by April. It's clear that Temple and Maynor aren't getting it done as backups.

Yes, the signing of Maynor was a mistake...a BIG one as it turns out. But do you now stand pat or do you lick your wounds and move on?

How many times do we have to make the same mistake before you starting thinking about moves like this in a different way, Zards?

The Spurs are in a position to challenge for a title, but they won't be for long. And they are battling injuries to key older players. It makes perfect sense for them to be interested in Udrih. Their time-frame is NOW -- and a very short now at that.

We need every single future-oriented asset we can muster. We need that Round 2 pick, because it helps a little bit to build the future. It is ridiculous to give that away for a mediocre, expiring 31-year old PG who'll give us 15 minutes a game for 30 games and then maybe 12 minutes a game during the 5-6 games it takes us to get bounced out of the playoffs -- and then be gone (probably to the Spurs for next year, costing them only his salary -- no future pick: they have a good GM unlike the Wizards).

PIF, it's not about how I'm thinking as much as it's about how the Zards players, coaches, owner, front office and, I would argue, an overwhelming majority of Zards fans are thinking. Like it or not, the Zards are all in for making the playoffs this year and, hopefully, advancing beyond the first round. That might be short term thinking, but it's the reality on the ground.

While it might be fun to dream up scenarios that include clinging on to a second round pick with the hope of drafting a player who'll contribute in the future or picking up an inexperienced, unproven NBDL player like Pierre Jackson or Tre Kelley, that's not currently in the cards. It's obvious that the Zards want a backup PG that they believe has the experience and smarts to help them secure a third seed and advance in the playoffs...not a whole lot unlike the reason you say the Spurs might be pursuing Beno. The Zards may not be playing for a championship but they are trying to win games (including playoff games) sooner rather than later.

Again, like it or not, short-term thinking is driving the Zards current strategy.

[verbal8]

I think there are two paradigms in which to evaluate trades with our current FO.

Paradigm One (PO) - Reality: Ted has made making the playoffs goal #1. Basically, you want your job, make the playoffs. So EG/Witt are on the hook for that short-term goal.

Paradigm Two (PT) - Long Term Success/Vision: Ted would like long-term success but not at the expense of his short-term goal.

So, Udrih for a 2nd round pick in PO - no brainer. Udrih for a 2nd round pick in PT - no way.

You can look at the Gortat trade the same way. No brainer in PO, no way in PT.

Isn't Beaubois a better option in either scenario?

[verbal8]

I think the Knicks probably make a couple moves.

If the Wizards decide to acquire Udrich here is what the deal should be:

I will use the Pistons, but pretty much any team with space under the luxury tax will work.

WAS
out:
Harrington
500K cash - covers salary plus a little incentive
in:
Beno Udrich

DET
in:
Harrington(waived)
500K cash

NYK
out:
Udrich

[dckingsfan]

I think there are two paradigms in which to evaluate trades with our current FO.

Paradigm One (PO) - Reality: Ted has made making the playoffs goal #1. Basically, you want your job, make the playoffs. So EG/Witt are on the hook for that short-term goal.

Paradigm Two (PT) - Long Term Success/Vision: Ted would like long-term success but not at the expense of his short-term goal.

So, Udrih for a 2nd round pick in PO - no brainer. Udrih for a 2nd round pick in PT - no way.

You can look at the Gortat trade the same way. No brainer in PO, no way in PT.

Isn't Beaubois a better option in either scenario?

I would think so...

[dckingsfan]

I think there are two paradigms in which to evaluate trades with our current FO.

Paradigm One (PO) - Reality: Ted has made making the playoffs goal #1. Basically, you want your job, make the playoffs. So EG/Witt are on the hook for that short-term goal.

Paradigm Two (PT) - Long Term Success/Vision: Ted would like long-term success but not at the expense of his short-term goal.

So, Udrih for a 2nd round pick in PO - no brainer. Udrih for a 2nd round pick in PT - no way.

You can look at the Gortat trade the same way. No brainer in PO, no way in PT.

Unless the Wizards go on a massive losing streak, they're making the playoffs. Someone on here posted that if the Wiz went 10-20 there's still a chance they get the 7th or 8th seed.

Trading Ariza won't diminish their playoff chances, I think the front office (as evident by the Zach Lowe article) realize Ariza is their biggest trade chip, they can probably get a player that can be productive today and in the future, and if played right, could probably get a first round pick out of it. I honestly don't think they expected Ariza to have the season he is having, cash in now while you still can.

In PT - you are correct. In paranoid PO - no, you don't take a chance losing your job and trading Ariza.

[closg00]

I think there are two paradigms in which to evaluate trades with our current FO.

Paradigm One (PO) - Reality: Ted has made making the playoffs goal #1. Basically, you want your job, make the playoffs. So EG/Witt are on the hook for that short-term goal.

Paradigm Two (PT) - Long Term Success/Vision: Ted would like long-term success but not at the expense of his short-term goal.

So, Udrih for a 2nd round pick in PO - no brainer. Udrih for a 2nd round pick in PT - no way.

You can look at the Gortat trade the same way. No brainer in PO, no way in PT.

Unless the Wizards go on a massive losing streak, they're making the playoffs. Someone on here posted that if the Wiz went 10-20 there's still a chance they get the 7th or 8th seed.

Trading Ariza won't diminish their playoff chances, I think the front office (as evident by the Zach Lowe article) realize Ariza is their biggest trade chip, they can probably get a player that can be productive today and in the future, and if played right, could probably get a first round pick out of it. I honestly don't think they expected Ariza to have the season he is having, cash in now while you still can.

Isn't this our biggest fear as Wizard fans, a Grunfeld trade?

[Induveca]

Anyone expecting an Ariza trade is fooling themselves. I do agree with most however that it would be wise to sell high.

Grunfeld/Leonsis aren't going to trade the second best player on the team during their precious playoff run.

The Wizards attendance has been stagnant for 3 years now. With some playoff noise average attendance rises 2500 people or more. That's 19k fans per game (currently at 16.5), their average during prime Arenas. 20.5k was during Jordan's playing days.

19k fans per game at 40 bucks average ticket (assuming rise in price from 35), 23 dollar average upsell equates to 7.7 million in potential new stadium revenue.

Wiz estimates are revenue of 12 dollars/year per fan currently, most good teams are at 30. Between Wall/Beal performing extremely well in the all star events, and a possible second round appearance assuming 3 million new worldwide fans is realistic.

Easy to assume 40-60 million in new revenue next year with the current "playoffs or bust" scenario and fan increase. Not building on the progress made this year on the PR front via a playoff run would be foolish financially.

[jivelikenice]

Agreed that they won't be moving Ariza. I somewhat agree on selling high. It all depends on what you're getting in return. He's playing well, but what does his high value translate into considering he's a rental for whatever team is trying to acquire him? If the return isn't good, let him expire and then try to re-sign him, S&T him, or take the cap room. The smarter play IMO would be to shop Martell.