The Official 2023 Draft Thread

[NatP4]

I’ll play along. Here’s a random game against Memphis. I watched the first half, then couldn’t take anymore. A lot of nitpicking, but highlighted a few prime examples:

Watch on YouTube

:30 missed wide open layup
1:40 cut out of a wide open 3 to turn it over
2:45 zero effort to contest easy layup
8:00 ball passed directly to him, doesn’t attempt to catch
13:00 PRIME EXAMPLE Totally lost
14:20 bad shot selection
15:00 misses another wide open layup
15:30 gives zero effort to set a solid screen in 3 attempts
19:50 rolls instead of pop for wide open 3
20:13 PRIME EXAMPLE Totally lost confuses entire team, gives up easy layup
20:30 bizarre layup attempt
22:08 PRIME EXAMPLE totally lost
23:58 PRIME EXAMPLE horrible defense, easy layup
25:35 bad shot
27:12 zero effort on screen

That’s just one half of a random game. Calling him a good defender is bizarre. Also noticed that he is absolutely not a screen setter, doesn’t even make any attempt.

[NatP4]

Kinda reminds me of Kelly Oubre honestly. Athletic, can shoot it, little to no feel for the game. Just looks lost all the time and plays sped up. All the tools to be a good defender, but isn’t.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=taylor-hendricks--kelly-oubre

[joshuacf]

I’ll play along. Here’s a random game against Memphis. I watched the first half, then couldn’t take anymore. A lot of nitpicking, but highlighted a few prime examples:

Watch on YouTube

:30 missed wide open layup
1:40 cut out of a wide open 3 to turn it over
2:45 zero effort to contest easy layup
8:00 ball passed directly to him, doesn’t attempt to catch
13:00 PRIME EXAMPLE Totally lost
14:20 bad shot selection
15:00 misses another wide open layup
15:30 gives zero effort to set a solid screen in 3 attempts
19:50 rolls instead of pop for wide open 3
20:13 PRIME EXAMPLE Totally lost confuses entire team, gives up easy layup
20:30 bizarre layup attempt
22:08 PRIME EXAMPLE totally lost
23:58 PRIME EXAMPLE horrible defense, easy layup
25:35 bad shot
27:12 zero effort on screen

That’s just one half of a random game. Calling him a good defender is bizarre. Also noticed that he is absolutely not a screen setter, doesn’t even make any attempt.

It's very interesting that this game you selected at random happened to be his worst game of the season. I'm sure that was just a coincidence.

[doclinkin]

I’ll play along. Here’s a random game against Memphis.

HA! 'Here, watch a game to prove your theory that Hendricks can't play'
Natp: googles furiously. picks the one single digit scoring game after a string of 10 double digit games in a row. Only one of which was below 15 pts.

"Here is a completely random game, not cherry picked at all, to illustrate my point..."

I will say I have been surprised that Penny Hardaway is a really solid defensive coach. I enjoyed this game, even though it went against my thesis.

That said if you are suggesting he is a terrible defensive player, maybe don't select the game where he snatched 9 boards, added 2 blocks and a steal and deterred many others. And 26 year old senior DeAndre Williams had the best game of his life, scoring 35 mostly over other players than Hendricks. The other frontcourt players on Memphis scored 3 points, 4 points, and 2 points. But yes, Williams scored 3 and a half times over Hendricks. (Half: double screened Hendricks once, hard to count it). Good for him. And admittedly Hendricks had a bad game. The worst of his season.

Sorta goes against your proposal that you are the sole basketball purist who watches everything though, if you 'highlight' the game that most closely hews to your point.

Is Hendricks the most impactful defender in the draft class? Not at all. I have Jarace among others above him. But as a freshman does he show talent in this regard? Yes. Can he improve? Yes. Does he have skills that will translate to the next level? Again, yes. He will be a productive player for a team that can use him right. Including improving what he does do well.

[NatP4]

That’s hilarious. I honestly YouTube searched UCF basketball full game and clicked that one because it’s only 1 hour and 9 minutes. Had absolutely no idea about the stat line or even the outcome of the game.

But fair enough, I wouldn’t want to just evaluate his worst game of the year by any means. Actually, looking at the available videos on YouTube, he was awful in most of them, Vs Mizzou, Vs Memphis, Vs Houston on 12/31

Let’s do his best game (s) of the year, and I’ll point out the exact same issues.

[NatP4]

Yeah Hendricks is ready to play for any team Day 1. He's a good defender, can step outside and shoot the 3. Honestly, out of all these prospects ranked in the top 10, I'd probably draft Hendricks at 8. The issue is he won't be there at 8, so it's a pointless convo but he would certainly be my top guy at 8 if he's there.

It's a pretty sure bet that Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore and Jarace Walker will also be gone by #8, so if Hendricks is gone too, that leaves us with Ausar, Black, Coulibaly, Wallace, Dick and Lively to choose from.

I'm having a pretty hard time picking among them.

The multi-tool versatile "athletic" guys like Ausar and Black seem like they might fall into the Troy Brown/Johnny Davis trap of not being good enough at any one thing to pan out as a starter. But if they learn to shoot they could be studs.

The defensive specialists like Coulibaly and Wallace have a low ceiling. Maybe they pan out as starters, but they have virtually zero chance of being an above-average starter or All-Star. Coulibaly's upside is Trevor Ariza, which is nice but not really a franchise changer. Wallace could be Jrue Holiday, but I'm leery of assuming anyone has the defensive chops of Jrue. If he is only 80% of Jrue, that makes him equivalent to someone like Dennis Schroder.

Dick feels like a little bit of a reach at #8 and very redundant with Kispert. I like him though. I'd like him better in a trade down to #10 or so.

Lively would require that one of Gafford/Porzingis be moved.

At the moment, I think I'd lean toward Ausar. I feel like he and Coulibaly have a similar floor as an ace defensive wing with a serviceable 3-point shot, but Ausar has a higher ceiling as a secondary playmaker. Man, I wish he was a better finisher at the rim.

Wow. “Zero chance at becoming an above average starter” and “Trevor Ariza ceiling” for Coulibaly. “Ausar falls into the Troy Brown Jr trap of not being good at any one thing to pan out as a starter”.

This will be fun to look back on in a few years.

[badinage]

https://www.si.com/nba/thunder/draft-coverage/sam-presti-seen-in-france-watching-bilal-coulibalys-mets-92

If Presti is in Paris, and Dawkins worked for Presti until a week ago …

[joshuacf]

Kinda reminds me of Kelly Oubre honestly. Athletic, can shoot it, little to no feel for the game. Just looks lost all the time and plays sped up. All the tools to be a good defender, but isn’t.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=taylor-hendricks--kelly-oubre

The fact he has the tools to be a great defender is what makes him a good prospect. I'm not sure why you would write the kid off in terms of his ability to develop. He's 19 years old with one season of college basketball experience under his belt. He has plenty of time to develop.

Also, Oubre is a decent NBA player, so if that's Hendricks's floor, I'll take it.

[NatP4]

Kinda reminds me of Kelly Oubre honestly. Athletic, can shoot it, little to no feel for the game. Just looks lost all the time and plays sped up. All the tools to be a good defender, but isn’t.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=taylor-hendricks--kelly-oubre

The fact he has the tools to be a great defender is what makes him a good prospect. I'm not sure why you would write the kid off in terms of his ability to develop. He's 19 years old with one season of college basketball experience under his belt. He has plenty of time to develop.

Also, Oubre is a decent NBA player, so if that's Hendricks's floor, I'll take it.

I definitely didn’t say floor. That’s the level of player I would project him to be personally. Oubre was even a much better rebounder and defender in college, against much better competition though.

He also really struggled against the good teams. Basically had two good games against good teams (the two that Doc continues to post the highlights of). I guess Cincinnati was also decent.

Things like motor/awareness/physicality don’t tend to develop.

[doclinkin]

He also really struggled against the good teams. Basically had two good games against good teams (the two that Doc continues to post the highlights of). I guess Cincinnati was also decent.

Tulane was 3rd the AAC standings behind Houston (#1 in the NCAA for most of the year) and a strong team in Memphis who should have made the tourney. Cincy was just behind those 3.

Against Tulane Hendricks went for 15/11r/4ast/1steal. With 1 foul and 0 turnovers. He shot 62% for the game (50% from 3, 3-4 at the FT line).

So Taylor had good games against 3 of the top 4 teams in the conference. Not Memphis who concentrated their defense on him and had good schemes to take him out of the action. Smart plan since UCF had pretty much only Taylor in terms of high level talent.

You can only play the teams they put in front of you.

On the Houston games, he played poorly the first meeting then played better in the rematch.

Likewise Memphis, where he played eh okay in an overtime win earlier in the year, then in the 2nd game put up 17 points, shot 42% from 3, with 2 blocks, in a one point loss.

I'm not saying he is the greatest player in the draft. I'm saying your criteria seems to wander and bend to fit your opinion. And for all that you suggest other people's opinions is based on narrow information, seems to me you are projecting since it doesn't seem like you have done your homework in this case. That's all.

Okay I'm done with this guy. Hendricks is a good option at 8, but not the player I have the absolute best feel about. He's not my Stef Curry of this draft.

[nate33]

The main problem with Hendricks is that he is a role player. If we had a nearly complete team and we were looking to add one more quality starter at the PF position, I'd be pretty happy with him. He seems like a guy who you could plug into an NBA lineup almost immediately. If he fills out a bit more and improves a bit as a rebounder, he is a starter.

But that's not where we are. We are at the precipice of a complete rebuild. There is no player on our roster that projects to be one of our top 2 players 4-5 years down the road when we are (hopefully) back in the playoffs. We probably don't even have our 3rd best player, though there's a small chance that Deni develops into an Aaron Gordon tier guy or Kispert develops into a Bojan Bogdanovic tier guy.

We need to draft a guy who could conceivably become a star. That's not Hendricks.

[mhd]

The main problem with Hendricks is that he is a role player. If we had a nearly complete team and we were looking to add one more quality starter at the PF position, I'd be pretty happy with him. He seems like a guy who you could plug into an NBA lineup almost immediately. If he fills out a bit more and improves a bit as a rebounder, he is a starter.

But that's not where we are. We are at the precipice of a complete rebuild. There is no player on our roster that projects to be one of our top 2 players 4-5 years down the road when we are (hopefully) back in the playoffs. We probably don't even have our 3rd best player, though there's a small chance that Deni develops into an Aaron Gordon tier guy or Kispert develops into a Bojan Bogdanovic tier guy.

We need to draft a guy who could conceivably become a star. That's not Hendricks.

Yeah, I'm hoping for one of the Thompson twins (most potential to be a star) or Dick honestly. I don't think Dick busts. Too good of a shooter. Orlando should take Dick at 5 honestly. Fills their most pressing need.

[nate33]

The main problem with Hendricks is that he is a role player. If we had a nearly complete team and we were looking to add one more quality starter at the PF position, I'd be pretty happy with him. He seems like a guy who you could plug into an NBA lineup almost immediately. If he fills out a bit more and improves a bit as a rebounder, he is a starter.

But that's not where we are. We are at the precipice of a complete rebuild. There is no player on our roster that projects to be one of our top 2 players 4-5 years down the road when we are (hopefully) back in the playoffs. We probably don't even have our 3rd best player, though there's a small chance that Deni develops into an Aaron Gordon tier guy or Kispert develops into a Bojan Bogdanovic tier guy.

We need to draft a guy who could conceivably become a star. That's not Hendricks.

Yeah, I'm hoping for one of the Thompson twins (most potential to be a star) or Dick honestly. I don't think Dick busts. Too good of a shooter. Orlando should take Dick at 5 honestly. Fills their most pressing need.

Orlando is probably hoping Dick is still on the board at #11.

[queridiculo]

I'm not going to pretend I have watched any prospects at all, but Bilal Coulibaly passes the eye test as a ++ defender.

Great feet, timing, anticipation and awareness.

Wouldn't grow tired watching him develop in a Wizards uni.

[TGW]

I'm not going to pretend I have watched any prospects at all, but Bilal Coulibaly passes the eye test as a ++ defender.

Great feet, timing, anticipation and awareness.

Wouldn't grow tired watching him develop in a Wizards uni.

Kid has that Pippen build. Not saying Coulibaly the next Pip, but the body and the defensive ability remind me of him.

[NatP4]

I go Coulibaly at 8. An absolute gift to have that level of potential available at that spot.

I don’t see the pull up jumper ever being a big weapon, like Kawhi in the midrange, or a ton of playmaking development, but Coulibaly is already an elite finisher, elite in transition, great cutter/lob threat, great straight line driver, draws a ton of free throws, and is developing nicely into a solid catch and shoot threat.

Guys that are a walking paint touch with that kind of athleticism, have the upside to be able to develop in the mid range, because teams have to give them those shots,
and have playmaking opportunities because of the help they force from the defense.

It’s the ++ defense that will always be his biggest strength, that’s where he has the Giannis/Kawhi level impact. Absolutely dominant on that end. Wiz have needed a true lockdown defender for so long.

Elite role player at first, with superstar upside.

[gambitx777]

I go Coulibaly at 8. An absolute gift to have that level of potential available at that spot.

I don’t see the pull up jumper ever being a big weapon, like Kawhi in the midrange, or a ton of playmaking development, but Coulibaly is already an elite finisher, elite in transition, great cutter/lob threat, great straight line driver, draws a ton of free throws, and is developing nicely into a solid catch and shoot threat.

Guys that are a walking paint touch with that kind of athleticism, have the upside to be able to develop in the mid range, because teams have to give them those shots,
and have playmaking opportunities because of the help they force from the defense.

It’s the ++ defense that will always be his biggest strength, that’s where he has the Giannis/Kawhi level impact. Absolutely dominant on that end. Wiz have needed a true lockdown defender for so long.

Elite role player at first, with superstar upside.

His advanced offensive numbers are not bad. His FG, 3PTP, his TS% and his EFG% are all good. Solid numbers. His usage is low but he has the building blocks of being a really good efficient offensive player.


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[NatP4]

Yeah, and I think he has first option/volume potential, he’s just closer to elite role player right now.

If he goes top 10, comes to America, and works with top level trainers, there’s all kinds of potential for tightening an already good handle, and improving his off the dribble shooting+playmaking.

No great direct comparisons for Coulibaly, but his floor is more like the Otto Porter/Mikal Bridges types, with a Kawhi-level ceiling.

He’s still 18 for another month and a half. Brandon Miller is almost 2 full years older than this guy. Argument to be made that Coulibaly is #2 in the draft.

[DCZards]

Did someone mention Anthony Black? Ok...maybe not.

Watch this absolutely terrific across court pass he makes to an open teammate in the corner in the first few seconds of this video. Don't blink you might miss it.

Read on Twitter

[/quote]

[Dat2U]

The main problem with Hendricks is that he is a role player. If we had a nearly complete team and we were looking to add one more quality starter at the PF position, I'd be pretty happy with him. He seems like a guy who you could plug into an NBA lineup almost immediately. If he fills out a bit more and improves a bit as a rebounder, he is a starter.

But that's not where we are. We are at the precipice of a complete rebuild. There is no player on our roster that projects to be one of our top 2 players 4-5 years down the road when we are (hopefully) back in the playoffs. We probably don't even have our 3rd best player, though there's a small chance that Deni develops into an Aaron Gordon tier guy or Kispert develops into a Bojan Bogdanovic tier guy.

We need to draft a guy who could conceivably become a star. That's not Hendricks.

This would rule out everyone, wouldn't it?

Who's the star player available at 8?