2025 Draft Thread

[dobrojim]

Our pick from MEM looks better.

I didn't realize PHL needs to tank hard or sacrifice
their FRP to OKC. It's top 6 protected.

[prime1time]

Does anyone know how the tiebreaker works for the lottery? What happens if the Jazz and the Wiz finish with the same record?

[prime1time]

Does anyone know how the tiebreaker works for the lottery? What happens if the Jazz and the Wiz finish with the same record?

Nvm I looked it up. Looks like they flip a coin.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Does anyone know how the tiebreaker works for the lottery? What happens if the Jazz and the Wiz finish with the same record?

Nvm I looked it up. Looks like they flip a coin.

Hey we've actually had some good luck with coin flips!

[dobrojim]

I'm wondering if we finished tied 1-2, when they
do the coin toss. The odds for the lotto winners are
the same for 1-3. It's gotta be before I would guess.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Every team requires an elite scorer. That's the hardest thing to find - particularly one who is not a defensive liability.

We don't have one yet.

Queen is an elite scorer.

He is a good scorer, but I highly doubt he will an elite first option scorer because bigs rarely are. It’s just too hard to get them touches on every half court set.

The only legit #1 option bigs in the last 15 years have been Jokic, Embiid, and Giannis. Are you predicting Queen will be that good? Because if he isn’t that good, then you’ve got a guy more like Julius Randle. And I don’t think you can win with him.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Randle
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/randlju01.html

Why can't you win with Julius Randle?

Career highs: 57 points 20 rebounds 17 assists 5 steals 5 blocks 14 triple doubles

Randle has been named an All-Star in 2021, 2022, and 2024.

I hope DQ is that good.

[TheBlackCzar]

Queen is an elite scorer.

He is a good scorer, but I highly doubt he will an elite first option scorer because bigs rarely are. It’s just too hard to get them touches on every half court set.

The only legit #1 option bigs in the last 15 years have been Jokic, Embiid, and Giannis. Are you predicting Queen will be that good? Because if he isn’t that good, then you’ve got a guy more like Julius Randle. And I don’t think you can win with him.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Randle
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/randlju01.html

Why can't you win with Julius Randle?

Career highs: 57 points 20 rebounds 17 assists 5 steals 5 blocks 14 triple doubles

Randle has been named an All-Star in 2021, 2022, and 2024.

I hope DQ is that good.

Well because no team he's been on has ever won anything in the NBA.... So that's why as of now you can't win with him.... He has no track record of being a winning player.... Usually he's talked about as a black hole who stagnates the offense despite his high level offensive efficiency..... Also his defense is a hinderance as well.....

[prime1time]

He is a good scorer, but I highly doubt he will an elite first option scorer because bigs rarely are. It’s just too hard to get them touches on every half court set.

The only legit #1 option bigs in the last 15 years have been Jokic, Embiid, and Giannis. Are you predicting Queen will be that good? Because if he isn’t that good, then you’ve got a guy more like Julius Randle. And I don’t think you can win with him.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Randle
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/randlju01.html

Why can't you win with Julius Randle?

Career highs: 57 points 20 rebounds 17 assists 5 steals 5 blocks 14 triple doubles

Randle has been named an All-Star in 2021, 2022, and 2024.

I hope DQ is that good.

Well because no team he's been on has ever won anything in the NBA.... So that's why as of now you can't win with him.... He has no track record of being a winning player.... Usually he's talked about as a black hole who stagnates the offense despite his high level offensive efficiency..... Also his defense is a hinderance as well.....

It's pretty bizarre to reduce winning to one player. And it shows how silly the conversation is. Winning championships does not come down to players of Julius Randle's caliber. That's why you guys avoid discussing Jokic. Championships come down to star players. So when I bring up Kevin Love and Chris Bosh what's the argument?

[prime1time]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Randle
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/randlju01.html

Why can't you win with Julius Randle?

Career highs: 57 points 20 rebounds 17 assists 5 steals 5 blocks 14 triple doubles

Randle has been named an All-Star in 2021, 2022, and 2024.

I hope DQ is that good.

Well because no team he's been on has ever won anything in the NBA.... So that's why as of now you can't win with him.... He has no track record of being a winning player.... Usually he's talked about as a black hole who stagnates the offense despite his high level offensive efficiency..... Also his defense is a hinderance as well.....

It's pretty bizarre to reduce winning to one player. And it shows how silly the conversation is. Winning championships does not come down to players of Julius Randle's caliber. That's why you guys avoid discussing Jokic. Championships come down to star players. So when I bring up Kevin Love and Chris Bosh what's the argument?

You put Julius Randle on the 90s Bulls and they are winning championships. You put him with Bron and they are winning championships. Julius Randle didn't win a championship because his teams lacked elite players. Even now Ant is not in his prime. A prime Ant can win a championship with Julius Randle. Rasheed Wallace is another player who scored at PF and won. Blanket statements are stupid. Kevin McHale is another example.

[gesa2]

What are the protections on the ‘25 Grizzlies pick? If the Grizz fall all the way out of the playoffs can we lose it?

[gesa2]

What are the protections on the ‘25 Grizzlies pick? If the Grizz fall all the way out of the playoffs can we lose it?

Stopped being lazy and looked it up. Per RealGM:


2025 first round draft pick from Memphis
Memphis' 2025 1st round pick to Washington protected for selections 1-14 in 2025; if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Memphis will instead convey (i) the most favorable of Boston's 2026 2nd round pick, Indiana's 2026 2nd round pick, the L.A. Clippers' 2026 2nd round pick and Miami's 2026 2nd round pick and (ii) Atlanta's 2027 2nd round pick to Washington [Memphis-Sacramento-Washington, 2/6/2025]

So we aren’t rooting for a complete collapse in Memphis after all. Unlikely that they fall all of the way out but not impossible

[dobrojim]

MEM is on a knife edge right now even though they are sitting in 5th in WC.
Their record recently has not been good since the trade.

They are at risk of falling into the play-in and therefore at risk of missing
the playoffs which would result in them keeping their pick which is protected
1-14.

I assume the best scenario for us would be for them to qualify for the
8th seed in the playoffs (after the play-in). They figure to play at least
one home game of the play-in tourney (assuming they fall below 6th) since they
are currently 7 wins ahead of the 9th place team, DAL, and 9 games
ahead of the 10th place SAC.

5- MEM 44-31
6. GSW 43-31
7. MIN 43-32
8. LAC 43-32
9. DAL 37-39
10. SAC 36-39
11. PHX 35-40

PS - after the play-in tourney, the non-playoff teams are seeded in the inverse order
of their W-L record. This will likely mean that the highest drafting 1-2 playoff teams will be from the EC
since they will probably have worse records than the worst WC teams. So the best that MEM's pick
would be is probably 17th. But all that is still TBD.

Bottom line - we want MEM to do as badly as possible while still making the playoffs.

PPS - MEM 7 remaining games: GSW*, @MIA*, @DET*, @CHA, MIN*, @DEN*, DAL*

*= still trying to win games. CHA is the only tanking team left on their schedule.

[Rafael122]

The West teams are doing this weird bit where they're just randomly resting guys and are conceding a loss even though their playoff spot is not guaranteed. Like Ja plays one game, and misses the next. I heard a stat on the Bill Simmons podcast that Bane/Ja/JJJ have only played like 31 games together this season. We basically just need Memphis to stay in the top 6. But staying in the top 6 could also mean we have the 16th pick in the draft.

[dobrojim]

^ all true

the most perfect scenario is still for them to get eventually get seeded 8th in the WC playoffs with
whatever the worst possible W-L record is to do that.
If they stay in the top 6, the draft position would be after any EC with worse records
as well as after any of the 7-10 WC playoff teams.

Staying in the top 6 just means we will definitely receive the pick no matter what.

But if they're in the top 6, that means at least 2 WC teams, the 7-8 WC playoff seeds, will pick before their pick
and however many EC teams had better records will also pick before their pick., likely to be 2-3 teams.

[The Consiglieri]

I think this is a technically possible thing more than anything. I believe they would have to lose out, and Dallas would have to win out, to make falling to 14 possible, and I see little to no chance of that happening (you've always got to asterisk that, but still, the odds of it happening are what, 1 in 10,000 or 1 in 5000? Possible, but enormously unlikely). The most likely scenario is that it will fall somewhere between 20th and 24th, a nice little improvement from the 26th at best which seemed most likely two months ago.

Interesting to note, the teams 1 game behind Memphis are a collective 22-8 in their last 10 games. Throw in the Lakers, and the four teams are 28-12. Meanwhile Memphis is 3-7 in its last ten. That information does suggest falling a touch more, perhaps into the 20th-22nd zone, is probably the more likely scenario, especially if Memphis doesn't get the post-firing bump teams sometimes get w/a new coach.

All in all, it's going to be a nice win: I tend to think a pick that was 26-30 a few months ago is gonna be instead a good 3-6 picks higher than any of us expected at that time. Not bad.

****Addendum: Yikes, total brain fart by me. I totally and completely forgot about the dumb---- play in tournament. Now I am scared lol. They could indeed fall into the lottery zone. Yeah, yeah, the concern is legit, I totally forgot about that Play in thing. Literally every single team behind them is playing better than them other than Dallas, and Sacramento. Hell even Phoenix is playing a bit better than them. This is indeed, deeply concerning.

[dobrojim]

If they fall into the play-in, then are eliminated, I think they would be in the lottery. And picking
in the top 14. But I could be wrong.

[Rafael122]

If they fall into the play-in, then are eliminated, I think they would be in the lottery. And picking
in the top 14. But I could be wrong.

So the play in tournament is the 6th-10th seeds.

7th seed. vs 8th seed - Winner becomes the 7th seed
9th vs. 10th seed - Winner faces loser of 7/8.

Winner of 9th vs. 10th/loser of 7th vs. 8th - becomes the 8th seed

My math could be wrong but Memphis is guaranteed to not fall to the 9th or 10th seed. The highest they can go is the 2nd seed, lowest is 8th. There's 11 games on Sunday. My guess is all of this will be a lot clearer by the end of the weekend.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

If they fall into the play-in, then are eliminated, I think they would be in the lottery. And picking
in the top 14. But I could be wrong.

With our luck watch Memphis fall to 14 and we lose their pick. Then Memphis wins the lottery and gets the #1 pick, and we fall to #6.

[dobrojim]

You can start as 7th seed and if you lose both the
play-in games, you're out of the playoffs and into
the lottery where you'll pick 14th unless
lightning strikes and you get into the top 4.

The odds of getting picked into the top 4 from
14th are really poor. Just looked it up. It's 0.5% or
200-1 against for getting the #1.

[Frichuela]

You can start as 7th seed and if you lose both the
play-in games, you're out of the playoffs and into
the lottery where you'll pick 14th unless
lightning strikes and you get into the top 4.

Man. Was hoping for a MEM collapse but now I see that there is a chance the pick never conveys and instead we get 2026 and 2027 mid second rounders.

If they continue their current trend, I think is likely MEM drops to 8th (just 1 game ahead from MIN at 7th and LAC at 8th).

We better hope they beat the 7th seed or the winner of the 9th/10th (DAL vs SAC) during the play-in in such scenario...