John Wall Appreciation Thread - Part III

[Wizardspride]

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[Shanghai Kid]

John actually finished the season shooting a career high 37% on 3-pointers with 4 attempts per game.

Now it was only half the season, but even from the eye test it's clear he's getting more and more comfortable shooting 3s. I'm not sure what was with his freethows this year, hopefully that get's back to 80% next season.

But I think Wall developing his 3-point shot is at least a small dent in the "Wall relies on his athleticism and we're doomed as he gets older narrative." Also the "Wall is a dinosaur in today's 3-point shooting" league might be a little overblown.

Also, maybe I'm crazy, but his defense to me looks a little better since he came back from the injury. Maybe he needs to stay trimmed down, he looks even quicker now.

[nate33]

John actually finished the season shooting a career high 37% on 3-pointers with 4 attempts per game.

Now it was only half the season, but even from the eye test it's clear he's getting more and more comfortable shooting 3s. I'm not sure what was with his freethows this year, hopefully that get's back to 80% next season.

But I think Wall developing his 3-point shot is at least a small dent in the "Wall relies on his athleticism and we're doomed as he gets older narrative." Also the "Wall is a dinosaur in today's 3-point shooting" league might be a little overblown.

Also, maybe I'm crazy, but his defense to me looks a little better since he came back from the injury. Maybe he needs to stay trimmed down, he looks even quicker now.

His three point shot is a set shot with a long wind up. I'm not hating. I'm thrilled that he has gotten better at that shot, and in fact, he has always been pretty decent at that 3-point set shot. It's certainly good enough for him to use it in catch-and-shoot situations off the ball, or when teams totally disrespect him on a pick-and-roll and go way under the screen. I don't mind him taking that shot whenever it's available.

That said, his ability to hit that shot at a respectable rate forces the defense to guard him honestly, but it's not really an offensive weapon that puts pressure on the defense. You don't want Wall shooting an off balance pull-up 3 while coming around the screen like Lillard, Curry, Lowry or Isaiah Thomas (last year).

[Shanghai Kid]

John actually finished the season shooting a career high 37% on 3-pointers with 4 attempts per game.

Now it was only half the season, but even from the eye test it's clear he's getting more and more comfortable shooting 3s. I'm not sure what was with his freethows this year, hopefully that get's back to 80% next season.

But I think Wall developing his 3-point shot is at least a small dent in the "Wall relies on his athleticism and we're doomed as he gets older narrative." Also the "Wall is a dinosaur in today's 3-point shooting" league might be a little overblown.

Also, maybe I'm crazy, but his defense to me looks a little better since he came back from the injury. Maybe he needs to stay trimmed down, he looks even quicker now.

His three point shot is a set shot with a long wind up. I'm not hating. I'm thrilled that he has gotten better at that shot, and in fact, he has always been pretty decent at that 3-point set shot. It's certainly good enough for him to use it in catch-and-shoot situations off the ball, or when teams totally disrespect him on a pick-and-roll and go way under the screen. I don't mind him taking that shot whenever it's available.

That said, his ability to hit that shot at a respectable rate forces the defense to guard him honestly, but it's not really an offensive weapon that puts pressure on the defense. You don't want Wall shooting an off balance pull-up 3 while coming around the screen like Lillard, Curry, Lowry or Isaiah Thomas (last year).

Oh I'm not expecting him to become a Curry/Lillard level shooter by any stretch, but I still think 37% on 4 attempts per game is noteworthy because of its upward trend and the fact that a lot of people and opposing teams seem to assume Wall can't shoot in general. It could open up things for Wall and the team if he suddenly is shooting 38-40% from 3-next season and teams don't feel like they can leave him open.

He did actually make a pretty smooth 3 on a fast-break last night. I'm not sure how comfortable he's doing that or if he can do it consistently, but I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility that he can quicken his release on his 3-point shot.

[DCZards]

Oh I'm not expecting him to become a Curry/Lillard level shooter by any stretch, but I still think 37% on 4 attempts per game is noteworthy because of its upward trend and the fact that a lot of people and opposing teams seem to assume Wall can't shoot in general. It could open up things for Wall and the team if he suddenly is shooting 38-40% from 3-next season and teams don't feel like they can leave him open.

He did actually make a pretty smooth 3 on a fast-break last night. I'm not sure how comfortable he's doing that or if he can do it consistently, but I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility that he can quicken his release on his 3-point shot.

I noticed that as well. It's unusual for Wall to take that kind of pull up 3 because, as Nate points out, the 3 has primarily been a slow set shot for John.

Maybe we'll see Wall take more quick 3s off of the break, which would be a significant benefit to both him and the Zards.

[Wizardspride]

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[payitforward]

Wow... I guess getting 20 points in a game is the be-all & end-all, huh?

By no means do I want to criticize John Wall's performance tonight; a win's a win. But, it took him 24 shots & 10 FTAs to get those 27 points. You do realize that if the whole team shoots at that efficiency, we lose the game -- by a lot.

In game 1, he was 6-20 & had 10 FTAs to amass 23 points.

He shot better in games 2 & 3, but in all the Hoop District tweet is idiotic.

Again, that's not meant to criticize John; just to criticize the so-called "analysis."

[Shanghai Kid]

John is essentially averaging 27/11 over his last 17 playoff games. It's starting to become a pretty big sample size.

[DCZards]

Wow... I guess getting 20 points in a game is the be-all & end-all, huh?

By no means do I want to criticize John Wall's performance tonight; a win's a win. But, it took him 24 shots & 10 FTAs to get those 27 points. You do realize that if the whole team shoots at that efficiency, we lose the game -- by a lot.

In game 1, he was 6-20 & had 10 FTAs to amass 23 points.

He shot better in games 2 & 3, but in all the Hoop District tweet is idiotic.

Again, that's not meant to criticize John; just to criticize the so-called "analysis."

Well...it does sound like your criticizing Wall's performance tonight. And this is supposed to the WallStar appreciation thread.

But screw the points...as you suggest they are not the be-all & end-all. The same can be said about counting (or worrying about) the # of shots Wall takes. But that clutch baseline jumper with about a minute left...that was sweet. And those 13 assists Wall is averaging per game...that's impressive!

This is Playoff Wall that we're seeing...that's what counts.

[TGW]

Wall takes 24 shots because Otto takes 8 shots. If Otto passes up everything and wants to go into a shell, then someone has to take those shots, right?

[Wizardspride]

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[dcstanley]

Wall takes 24 shots because Otto takes 8 shots. If Otto passes up everything and wants to go into a shell, then someone has to take those shots, right?

If Otto comes out every quarter like he did in the third last night the Wizards win the series. But he remains reluctant to take jumpers and it's hurting the team.

[tontoz]

Wall seems like he has turned the corner with his playoff production. Earlier in his career he definitely struggled in the playoffs. Seemed like a mental issue that he has gotten over.

[Wizardspride]

Wall seems like he has turned the with his playoff production. Earlier in his career he definitely struggled in the playoffs. Seemed like a mental issue that he has gotten over.

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[Kanyewest]

Wow... I guess getting 20 points in a game is the be-all & end-all, huh?

By no means do I want to criticize John Wall's performance tonight; a win's a win. But, it took him 24 shots & 10 FTAs to get those 27 points. You do realize that if the whole team shoots at that efficiency, we lose the game -- by a lot.

In game 1, he was 6-20 & had 10 FTAs to amass 23 points.

He shot better in games 2 & 3, but in all the Hoop District tweet is idiotic.

Again, that's not meant to criticize John; just to criticize the so-called "analysis."

Yeah, it is still a mixed bag.

TS% by game

Game 1: 47%
Game 2: 66%
Game 3: 56%
Game 4: 48%

53 TS% is still solid, and improvement from what we saw from Wall from the Celtics series. His all around stats from a quick glance appear to better than what he's done in any postseason.

[Wizardspride]

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[DCZards]

With a mark of 31.7, LeBron James is the leader in PER for the 2018 NBA Playoffs now that every team has played four games. Anthony Davis ranks second at 31.3, followed by James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo and John Wall. https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/249664/2018-NBA-Playoffs-PER-LeBron-AD-Harden-Giannis-Wall-In-Top-5

2018 NBA Playoffs PER (Min. 20 MPG)

1. LeBron James: 31.7
2. Anthony Davis: 31.3
3. James Harden: 29.0
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 28.9
5. John Wall: 26.2
6. Khris Middleton: 25.8
7. Clint Capela: 25.8
8. Chris Paul: 25.7
9. Kevin Durant: 25.3
10. Al Horford: 24.2
11. Jrue Holiday: 24.2
12. Jonas Valanciunas: 23.7
13. LaMarcus Aldridge: 23.3
14. Jusuf Nurkic: 22.4
15. Nikola Mirotic: 22.2
16. Ben Simmons: 21.3
17. Jaylen Brown: 21.2
18. Rudy Gobert: 20.7
19. Al-Farouq Aminu: 20.6
20. Dwyane Wade: 20.5
21. Donovan Mitchell: 19.8
22. C.J. McCollum: 19.3
23. DeMar DeRozan: 19.2
24. OG Anunoby: 18.9
25. Ricky Rubio: 18.9

[Shanghai Kid]

Wow... I guess getting 20 points in a game is the be-all & end-all, huh?

By no means do I want to criticize John Wall's performance tonight; a win's a win. But, it took him 24 shots & 10 FTAs to get those 27 points. You do realize that if the whole team shoots at that efficiency, we lose the game -- by a lot.

In game 1, he was 6-20 & had 10 FTAs to amass 23 points.

He shot better in games 2 & 3, but in all the Hoop District tweet is idiotic.

Again, that's not meant to criticize John; just to criticize the so-called "analysis."

Yeah, it is still a mixed bag.

TS% by game

Game 1: 47%
Game 2: 66%
Game 3: 56%
Game 4: 48%

53 TS% is still solid, and improvement from what we saw from Wall from the Celtics series. His all around stats from a quick glance appear to better than what he's done in any postseason.

His TS% and overall efficiency is the one thing holding him back from being a true statistical beast. After game 3 he was at 56% TS and a PER of 28. I think his efficiency really hurts his advanced stats, but they are still superstar numbers on paper so far.

I also think Wall puts pressure on the defense even when he''s missing shots.

[CobraCommander]

With a mark of 31.7, LeBron James is the leader in PER for the 2018 NBA Playoffs now that every team has played four games. Anthony Davis ranks second at 31.3, followed by James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo and John Wall. https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/249664/2018-NBA-Playoffs-PER-LeBron-AD-Harden-Giannis-Wall-In-Top-5

2018 NBA Playoffs PER (Min. 20 MPG)

1. LeBron James: 31.7
2. Anthony Davis: 31.3
3. James Harden: 29.0
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 28.9
5. John Wall: 26.2
6. Khris Middleton: 25.8
7. Clint Capela: 25.8
8. Chris Paul: 25.7
9. Kevin Durant: 25.3
10. Al Horford: 24.2
11. Jrue Holiday: 24.2
12. Jonas Valanciunas: 23.7
13. LaMarcus Aldridge: 23.3
14. Jusuf Nurkic: 22.4
15. Nikola Mirotic: 22.2
16. Ben Simmons: 21.3
17. Jaylen Brown: 21.2
18. Rudy Gobert: 20.7
19. Al-Farouq Aminu: 20.6
20. Dwyane Wade: 20.5
21. Donovan Mitchell: 19.8
22. C.J. McCollum: 19.3
23. DeMar DeRozan: 19.2
24. OG Anunoby: 18.9
25. Ricky Rubio: 18.9

Interesting...where is Beal and Lillard? Guess Wall playing better than we thought?

[payitforward]

His TS% and overall efficiency is the one thing holding him back from being a true statistical beast. After game 3 he was at 56% TS and a PER of 28. I think his efficiency really hurts his advanced stats, but they are still superstar numbers on paper so far.

I also think Wall puts pressure on the defense even when he''s missing shots.

If he takes/misses a shot, what difference does that "pressure on the defense" make?

What's a "statistical beast?" Stats are a measure of your effect on games (i.e. winning or not winning them). Hence they just convey how good a player you are. In the minutes you play, that is. The more minutes you play, the more reliable the stats are, & the more they measure how good you are likely to be in your future minutes.

PER is not a "stat" or even an "advanced stat." It's a roll-up of boxscore stats, & not a very well-considered one. Why? B/c if you shoot at a % higher than (I think) 28%, then the more shots you take the higher your PER. But low % shooting helps you lose games not win them, so PER doesn't convey anything very real.

To know how good John is, you might compare him to the gold standard, Chris Paul, maybe the greatest PG in league history. Certainly in the top handful. Where does John meet or exceed that standard, & what does he do that falls short of the standard Chris Paul sets? Along the way we can also reference Kyle Lowry.

Last year (Wall's best & a great year for CP as well), John Wall was virtually even w/ Chris Paul in assists per 40 minutes (& way better than, e.g., Kyle Lowry). He was also even w/ CP in offensive boards (& w/ KL). He wasn't quite up to Chris Paul in steals, but he came pretty close & was certainly well above average (better than Lowry). He committed fewer fouls than CP (or Lowry). & he is a much better shot-blocker than Chris Paul (or KL). But, John wasn't nearly as good a defensive rebounder as CP; in fact, he's a little below average for an NBA point guard (Lowry is a bit above average).

Aggregate all this stuff, & John Wall is not that far behind CP (& well ahead of Lowry). But, turnovers & inefficient scoring change the picture. For starters, John turns the ball over almost 50% more often than Chris Paul (or Lowry, or an average PG).

In his scoring, it's not how many points he scores. In fact he outscores CP (Lowry too). Nor is it his FT performance. He gets to the line more than CP (or Lowry). He doesn't shoot near the FT % of Paul (he's a bit below Lowry as well) -- but all the same, shooting free throws contributes more to his TS% than to either of theirs.

Just based on the above, Wall isn't a class with CP. But neither is any other PG in the league -- no one is even close, really. Yet, even with all those TOs, John is a good deal better so far than Lowry -- until you turn to shooting..

Unfortunately, John Wall is a volume shooter who shoots a low %. In 2016-17, his eFG% was almost 9 percentage points worse than Lowry & almost 7.5 percentage points worse than Chris Paul. That's a huge difference. In fact, John was 1.5 percentage points below the average of all point guards in the league from the worst to the best. Plus, John Wall also took 25% more shots than either CP or KL.

If John shot as well as Chris Paul, would be just as good a player as Chris Paul? No. But, he'd be a whole lot closer -- that's an amazing fact. & if he shot as well as Lowry, he'd be a significantly better player than KL. Probably about as good as Westbrook -- right behind Paul & Harden.

So, what stops Wall from being a truly great player? Inefficient volume shooting.