Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Today February 8th I am so happy!!!

The Wizards didn't do a thing bad or detrimental at draft time Yes!!!!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

PIF, I'm anything but an EG fan, but at this point - criticising the Sato pick isn't helping your case. As far as the wait to get him, that meant that we didn't have to suffer through and pay for his developmental years. Yes, there were other better players available, but that's not a good enough criteria to call him a bad pick. He wasn't the best pick they could have made at that point, but he was a good pick.

Sato was a great pick!.... See next post

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I disagree w/ both of these posts.

I feel like putting this on the general board. I must give Ernie Grunfeld his props. This roster is so much better than last year's it's unbelievable.

--Tim Frazier was a very good pickup

--Tomas Satoransky turns out he's a very good draft pick

--Mike Scott is an excellent pickup. Love the way he plays. Like a cross between Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison.

--Markieff Morris is a glue guy who fits this roster well. He plays with an edge.

--Jason Smith is a big body who stays involved. He's ready to play when called upon. Brings tremendous positive energy...

Frazier: I can't believe that you, CCJ, of all people would say this. Frazier has been ok for, but he is a rent-a-player -- one year -- for whom we traded a R2 pick, a guy you would have & control for a few years to find out whether he's a real asset. Now, you can make the argument that, since it was a late pick, we only gave up access to @ 1/2 dozen players, but that's not accurate: after 60 you are competing w/ others for a guy rather than owning his rights.

But, at least in this case there's an argument to be made: for the rest, absolutely not!

Satoransky -- definitely turning into a good player, but picking him was not a good decision at all. Ernie picked him instead of several players who are both better (some of them much better) & who contributed for the 4 long years during which Sato stayed in Europe. It would be one thing if those guys were some kind of dark horses, big surprises -- but we all pointed to them!! I'm talking about Draymond Green, Jae Crowder, Will Barton, & Khris Middleton. Not to mention Kyle O'Quinn.

Scott -- definitely an outstanding value for a veteran minimum player. As they say... even a blind squirrel occasionally finds a nut. But, again, a rent-a-player -- not a guy who helps build a team.

Morris -- I'm happy that Markieff has played better the last couple of weeks, but that doesn't make him a good NBA 4 -- & certainly doesn't make him worth a lottery pick!! Do you think the Bulls would trade Denzel Valentine for him straight up? No, obviously not. That's the guy we were all pointing at for our pick in that draft. But 80% of the next 20 picks would be a better asset right now (& last year for that matter) than Morris.

Smith -- Jason has had a long & very bad NBA career. His best year was with us last year, & it wasn't particularly good. He was terrible value as a FA. Dedmon, who is actually a good player, signed for about the same $, as did several other guys who were available unrestricted the way Smith was.

In fairness, you do leave out Oubre -- an actual example of genuine good work on Ernie's part.

There are only 4 players on this roster that I consider to be above-average acquisition based on the choices available at the time: Porter, Oubre, Sato and Scott. Everyone else was a no-brainer pick or an acquisition that we overpaid to acquire. That doesn't mean that they suck, it just means that it wasn't an example of great GMing. Most other GM's would have done better.

Porter -- the default pick on virtually every board. I can't see why Ernie would get any more credit for taking him than for taking Wall or Beal, who were also defaults at their spots in the draft. Pretty much every GM would have taken him at that spot.
Oubre, yes, certainly.
Scott, sure, but we're talking about a vet minimum 1-year rent-a-player.
Sato -- a good "player" is not the same as a good "pick." As I write above, with Draymond Green, Jae Crowder, Khris Middleton, Will Barton & Kyle O'Quinn on the board, taking Satoransky was bad GMing not good. All the worse in that he then spent the next 4 years of his career in Europe.

I can't think of a single other move Ernie has made in the last 6-7 years that qualifies even as satisfactory -- let alone good.

payitforward: Busy as all hell right now...(Monday night HST)..... will get back to you on this ...

Not sure, but I don't think I can make an accurate response to this using my cellphone and Android RealGm app.



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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Perhaps I have been locked out of this thread or the network is just geeking. I lost a lot of time posting something that does not appear

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[montestewart]

Perhaps I have been locked out of this thread or the network is just geeking. I lost a lot of time posting something that does not appear

Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

Good to hear you anyway!

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[closg00]

With guards in increasingly scarce supply, Wizards tap a staffer to run point at practice

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wizards-insider/wp/2018/02/12/with-guards-in-increasingly-scarce-supply-wizards-tap-a-staffer-to-run-point-at-practice/?utm_term=.4c87880eca93

Mind boggling incompetence, this is what the forcing call-up is for. Those guys have a bag packed and are ready to go, Ernie could have used a 10-day and had someone at practice already. Idiot

[Ruzious]

With guards in increasingly scarce supply, Wizards tap a staffer to run point at practice

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wizards-insider/wp/2018/02/12/with-guards-in-increasingly-scarce-supply-wizards-tap-a-staffer-to-run-point-at-practice/?utm_term=.4c87880eca93

Mind boggling incompetence, this is what the forcing call-up is for. Those guys have a bag packed and are ready to go, Ernie could have used a 10-day and had someone at practice already. Idiot

And they've put Sato and Frazier in a situation where they almost have to play - almost regardless of whether or not it's safe for them to - and both play significant minutes. How hard would it have been to sign someone to a 10 day contract?

[closg00]

Richard Cho about to be replaced after 7 years with Charlotte while Ernie is in his 15th.

[pcbothwel]

Richard Cho about to be replaced after 7 years with Charlotte while Ernie is in his 15th.

As bad as EG has been, Cho has been far worse. He was hired 1 week before 2011 draft, so he gets 0 credit for Kemba pick. Look at all the moves after:
2011: Traded 2013 2nd (#32 for a terrible BJ Mullins)

2012: MKG over Beal, Lillard, and Drummond.
#31 Jeffrey Taylor over Sato, Crowder, Draymond, Middleton, Barton, and KOQ

2013: Signed Al Jefferson to 3/40M deal and Gerald Henderson to 2/12M deal

2014: Drafted Vonleh over Payton, McDermott, LaVine, Saric.
Drafted PJ Hairston over Capela, Kyle Anderson, Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant and Jokic.
Signed Lance Stephenson to 2/18M deal in which he was unplayable because he was so bad

2015: Drafted Kaminsky over Myles Turner, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker, Oubre, and Portis

2016: Traded their #22 pick for Marco Belinelli (Terrible value)
Signed Marvin Williams and Batum to 175M combined.
Traded expirings in Hawes/Hibbert for the TERRIBLE Miles Plumlee contract that was almost unmovable (Worse than Mahinmi)

2017: Traded for TERRIBLE Howard contract
Drafted potential 6th man in Malik Monk who looks beyond terrible.
Passed over Kennard, Mitchell, Bam, Patton, John Collins, Ferguson, Jarrett Allen, Anunoby, and Kuzma.
Traded out of #31, where they could of picked Bolden, Ojeleye, or Jordan Bell... all for a terrible Dwayne Bacon and cash

5 top 11 picks in the last 6 years (2 were top 5). With that they have a bottom 10 team and a top 10 Payroll... Dear god.

[Kanyewest]

Richard Cho about to be replaced after 7 years with Charlotte while Ernie is in his 15th.

As bad as EG has been, Cho has been far worse. He was hired 1 week before 2011 draft, so he gets 0 credit for Kemba pick. Look at all the moves after:
2011: Traded 2013 2nd (#32 for a terrible BJ Mullins)

2012: MKG over Beal, Lillard, and Drummond.
#31 Jeffrey Taylor over Sato, Crowder, Draymond, Middleton, Barton, and KOQ

2013: Signed Al Jefferson to 3/40M deal and Gerald Henderson to 2/12M deal

2014: Drafted Vonleh over Payton, McDermott, LaVine, Saric.
Drafted PJ Hairston over Capela, Kyle Anderson, Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant and Jokic.
Signed Lance Stephenson to 2/18M deal in which he was unplayable because he was so bad

2015: Drafted Kaminsky over Myles Turner, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker, Oubre, and Portis

2016: Traded their #22 pick for Marco Belinelli (Terrible value)
Signed Marvin Williams and Batum to 175M combined.
Traded expirings in Hawes/Hibbert for the TERRIBLE Miles Plumlee contract that was almost unmovable (Worse than Mahinmi)

2017: Traded for TERRIBLE Howard contract
Drafted potential 6th man in Malik Monk who looks beyond terrible.
Passed over Kennard, Mitchell, Bam, Patton, John Collins, Ferguson, Jarrett Allen, Anunoby, and Kuzma.
Traded out of #31, where they could of picked Bolden, Ojeleye, or Jordan Bell... all for a terrible Dwayne Bacon and cash

5 top 11 picks in the last 6 years (2 were top 5). With that they have a bottom 10 team and a top 10 Payroll... Dear god.

Signing Al Jefferson worked out for the Hornets.

However, not trading Kaminsky for picks takes the cake. https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/report-celtics-wanted-to-trade-6-picks-for-hornets-no-9-pick/

[payitforward]

That really is an awful record!! You could argue that it's worse than Ernie's, but, I'd say that's an overstatement. After all...

2010-2011 -- After John Wall, Ernie made 4 R1 picks in 2010 & 2011 alone (including a #6) & got nothing -- zero, zip, zilch -- out of them. The ping pong balls gave him Wall, so -- as with Walker for Cho -- no credit to the GM.

2012 -- MK-G was rated w/ Beal. Hell, Ernie might have picked him over Beal had he been using the #2. This is a case where all you can say for sure is that Cho's pick made that impossible!
2012 R2 -- The pick of Satoransky -- over Crowder, Draymond, Middleton, Barton, and KOQ -- doesn't turn into a good move, b/c 5+ years later Sato starts to be a good player (though of course it's better than if he were bad): the value of an asset is in the whole return you get for it! Almost one half of Sato's career was unavailable to us, & we don't know whether we can keep him past next year either!

2013 -- terrible R2 pick (for which we traded up!)
2014 -- terrible R2 decision (taking a little cash for a guy who is an NBA player now in his 4th year)
2015 -- missing out on one of the strongest R2s b/c our pick had been wasted in a trade to jettison Vesely
2016 -- lottery pick traded for Markieff Morris (even worse than Charlotte trading #22 for Belinelli)
2017 -- R1 pick thrown away to hide a mistake


Yes, the Miles Plumlee contract was bad, but, no, that move wasn't worse than signing Mahinmi for 30% more!!

& while Howard's contract is bad, it's unfair to simply add it on to the 2 previous moves, as he dumped both plumlee & belinelli in the deal, & Howard expires next year -- i.e. they owe him less than we owe Mahinmi! -- plus though they did give #31, they got #40 (i.e. it was a drop of 9 spots). In fact, there was a big difference in who was available, but that's a roll of the dice thing. Note, not suggesting Howard was a great target!!

IOW, though Belinelli & Plumlee were mistakes, at least he got something for them. Ernie spends his assets on guys, & then he gets nothing whatever for them (Booker, Seraphin, the #46 pick in 2012, several other picks gone for a bit of cash, a whole bunch of FAs signed then either dropped or assets spent to dump them, etc.)

I'm not sure the Batum signing was worse than the $40m/year we're going to be giving Wall.

Plus Cho acquired Jeremy Lamb for Luke Ridnour & a R2 pick -- a better trade by far than Ernie's made in the last 10 years.

Still, yeah, Cho has been terrible. About as bad as Ernie Grunfeld -- & it's hard to be that bad! -- but not particularly worse.

[Kanyewest]

2012 -- MK-G was rated w/ Beal. Hell, Ernie might have picked him over Beal had he been using the #2. This is a case where all you can say for sure is that Cho's pick made that impossible!

I don't think we can know for certain, but I think you are implying a bias to Ernie because he's committed a lot of bad moves in the past. That being said, I would tend to believe that if anything Grunfeld overvalued Beal as he did not trade Beal (and IIRC a future first which I believe would have turned out to be Otto Porter) for James Harden. I suppose we should dock Grunfeld points for that as well although Charlotte would have had the same offer on the table had they correctly taken Beal. I think most people here wanted Beal over MKG so I'm glad Cho made the decision that he made.

[queridiculo]

& while Howard's contract is bad, it's unfair to simply add it on to the 2 previous moves, as he dumped both plumlee & belinelli in the deal, & Howard expires next year -- i.e. they owe him less than we owe Mahinmi! -- plus though they did give #31, they got #40 (i.e. it was a drop of 9 spots). In fact, there was a big difference in who was available, but that's a roll of the dice thing. Note, not suggesting Howard was a great target!!
.

I'd rather have Howard for 3 years at $23 million per than Mahinmi for $16 million.

At least with Howard in the fold we could have legitimately considered dumping Gortat, that was never an option for this team simply because Mahinmi can't stay on the floor longer than 25 minutes without fouling out and because you can't trust that he plays more than 70% of the games in a given season.

[Kanyewest]

At the end of the day, the Wizards are only paying $5 million more than the Hornets. Bradley Beal is getting paid around the same as Nicolas Batum. Even without one of John Wall, Otto Porter, and Bradley Beal, the Wizards would have significantly more talent in the present and the long term than the Hornets.

[payitforward]

2012 -- MK-G was rated w/ Beal. Hell, Ernie might have picked him over Beal had he been using the #2. This is a case where all you can say for sure is that Cho's pick made that impossible!

I don't think we can know for certain, but I think you are implying a bias to Ernie because he's committed a lot of bad moves in the past. That being said, I would tend to believe that if anything Grunfeld overvalued Beal as he did not trade Beal (and IIRC a future first which I believe would have turned out to be Otto Porter) for James Harden. I suppose we should dock Grunfeld points for that as well although Charlotte would have had the same offer on the table had they correctly taken Beal. I think most people here wanted Beal over MKG so I'm glad Cho made the decision that he made.

As you say, there's no way to know. But, I wasn't biased against Ernie in this case, because, although I slightly preferred Beal over MK-G, I would have been content had Cho taken Brad & we'd wound up w/ MK-G. As I say, most people had them rated as equivalent, & MK-G's numbers in college were outstanding.

Moreover, MK-G has been a very good NBA player too -- although he's by no means a scorer. Everyone tends to overrate scorers, it's natural.

In this case people it's also easy to forget that Brad Beal was not a very good player his first 4 years in the league.

I think you may also be forgetting that as late as his 3d year, plenty of posters on this board were calling Bradley Beal a bust.

Plus, unlike you, I don't remember a meaningful preference here for Beal over MK-G in the run-up to the draft, tho I could be remembering wrong. Still, I think I'm right, & it would be easy enough to check.

Thinking about it, I remember that there were people who wanted Thomas Robinson, people who wanted Dion Waiters, people who wanted Damian Lillard, & more than one that wanted Harrison Barnes. At least one person wanted Drummond -- who has IMO turned out to be the best & most valuable of the top 10 -- & I think there was someone, maybe more than one, calling for Jeremy Lamb.

(You may remember -- unlikely but maybe -- what my preferred strategy was that year. A massive, multiple trade-down: I wanted to swap our #3 w/ Portland for their #s 6 & 11, & take Drummond @ #6. Then I wanted to trade #11 to Houston for their #s16 & 18. With #18 I wanted to take Terrance Jones, but I wanted to trade #16 to Boston for their #s 21 & 22. I forget who I had in mind to take w/ #21 (probably Sullinger), but I wanted to trade #22 to Dallas for their #s 33 & 34. With #33 I wanted Draymond Green, & with #34 I wanted Jae Crowder. But, we also had #32, which I wanted to trade to Portland for their #s 40 & 41, which I wanted to use on Will Barton & Kyle O'Quinn.

In other words, I wanted to come out of that draft with Andre Drummond, Terrance Jones, Sullinger, Draymond Green, Jae Crowder, Will Barton & Kyle O'Quinn. Seven rookies!!

Of course, I got a raft of sh#t for my idea -- no support whatsoever -- & both Jones & Sullinger didn't work out -- but, come on, that was a great plan!! We had just blown the 2011 draft entirely, & we needed a radical change.

Btw, you are free to go back & look at the 2012 Draft thread if you think I'm kidding. I'm not.

[Kanyewest]

As you say, there's no way to know. But, I wasn't biased against Ernie in this case, because, although I slightly preferred Beal over MK-G, I would have been content had Cho taken Brad & we'd wound up w/ MK-G. As I say, most people had them rated as equivalent, & MK-G's numbers in college were outstanding.

Moreover, MK-G has been a very good NBA player too -- although he's by no means a scorer. Everyone tends to overrate scorers, it's natural.

In this case people it's also easy to forget that Brad Beal was not a very good player his first 4 years in the league.

I think you may also be forgetting that as late as his 3d year, plenty of posters on this board were calling Bradley Beal a bust.

Plus, unlike you, I don't remember a meaningful preference here for Beal over MK-G in the run-up to the draft, tho I could be remembering wrong. Still, I think I'm right, & it would be easy enough to check.

Thinking about it, I remember that there were people who wanted Thomas Robinson, people who wanted Dion Waiters, people who wanted Damian Lillard, & more than one that wanted Harrison Barnes. At least one person wanted Drummond -- who has IMO turned out to be the best & most valuable of the top 10 -- & I think there was someone, maybe more than one, calling for Jeremy Lamb.

(You may remember -- unlikely but maybe -- what my preferred strategy was that year. A massive, multiple trade-down: I wanted to swap our #3 w/ Portland for their #s 6 & 11, & take Drummond @ #6. Then I wanted to trade #11 to Houston for their #s16 & 18. With #18 I wanted to take Terrance Jones, but I wanted to trade #16 to Boston for their #s 21 & 22. I forget who I had in mind to take w/ #21 (probably Sullinger), but I wanted to trade #22 to Dallas for their #s 33 & 34. With #33 I wanted Draymond Green, & with #34 I wanted Jae Crowder. But, we also had #32, which I wanted to trade to Portland for their #s 40 & 41, which I wanted to use on Will Barton & Kyle O'Quinn.

In other words, I wanted to come out of that draft with Andre Drummond, Terrance Jones, Sullinger, Draymond Green, Jae Crowder, Will Barton & Kyle O'Quinn. Seven rookies!!

Of course, I got a raft of sh#t for my idea -- no support whatsoever -- & both Jones & Sullinger didn't work out -- but, come on, that was a great plan!! We had just blown the 2011 draft entirely, & we needed a radical change.

Btw, you are free to go back & look at the 2012 Draft thread if you think I'm kidding. I'm not.

Yeah, Beal's stock went up and down a lot in his first 4 years in the league. Many called him a bust in his rookie season, but then some touted him as a top shooting after playoff performances that were better than James Harden in 2014. There was a lack of statistical improvement in his game from his 1st to 4th year, although I've have argued that his teammates were one of the biggest knocks on his efficiency plus head coaches that emphasized him taking mid range jumpers. His rebounding was pretty bad, although Beal has picked it up recently. I believe he was a strong rebounding guard in college.

I was just reading the draft thread and you are right that many did want MKG. I think there were slightly more people who wanted Beal, MKG was a close 2nd and seemed to be the pick everyone wanted if Beal was off the board. In retrospect, it was also funny that many people were going to riot if Harrison Barnes was the pick instead of MKG, MKG may be slightly better although the gap between them hasn't turned out to be that significant.

Yeah Sullinger looked like he had a chance to be a solid pro coming out. If you would have kept the picks and taken Beal and Draymond, that would have been a pretty good haul.

[payitforward]

At the end of the day, the Wizards are only paying $5 million more than the Hornets. Bradley Beal is getting paid around the same as Nicolas Batum. Even without one of John Wall, Otto Porter, and Bradley Beal, the Wizards would have significantly more talent in the present and the long term than the Hornets.

Something to what you say. But...

Leave Wall out of it, b/c he came on as the overall #1, by luck, & before Cho started.

Now take away Howard from them & Porter from us. Then take Beal from us & Batum from them.

You sure we are left w/ more talent?

They have Kemba Walker, Mk-G, Marvin Williams, Jeremy Lamb & Cody Zeller.
We have Tomas Satoransky, Markieff Morris, Kelly Oubre, Marcin Gortat & Ian Mahinmi.

(Of course, this is totally unfair Plus their next 5 guys cost @$15m more than ours.)

Really, the only edge you can give Ernie is luck w/ the ping pong balls. W/o that we'd have been likely to draft Monroe in 2010 & Trey Burke (or Shabazz Muhammed) in 2013.

[Kanyewest]

At the end of the day, the Wizards are only paying $5 million more than the Hornets. Bradley Beal is getting paid around the same as Nicolas Batum. Even without one of John Wall, Otto Porter, and Bradley Beal, the Wizards would have significantly more talent in the present and the long term than the Hornets.

Something to what you say. But...

Leave Wall out of it, b/c he came on as the overall #1, by luck, & before Cho started.

Now take away Howard from them & Porter from us. Then take Beal from us & Batum from them.

You sure we are left w/ more talent?

They have Kemba Walker, Mk-G, Marvin Williams, Jeremy Lamb & Cody Zeller.
We have Tomas Satoransky, Markieff Morris, Kelly Oubre, Marcin Gortat & Ian Mahinmi.

(Of course, this is totally unfair Plus their next 5 guys cost @$15m more than ours.)

Really, the only edge you can give Ernie is luck w/ the ping pong balls. W/o that we'd have been likely to draft Monroe in 2010 & Trey Burke (or Shabazz Muhammed) in 2013.

I said take away only one of the big 3.

Charlotte had the #2 pick in 2012 and the #4 pick in 2013. Also traded for the #7 pick in 2011, Biyombo wasn't as bad as Vesley although the Hornets didn't choose to pick up his option either!

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[milellie111]

Any team that can win against quality teams for long stretches without it’s star player speaks volumes on the GM’s skills.