Bradley Beal - Part III

[dckingsfan]

Yes. I'd rather accumulate losses and give the youngsters reps right now. Later in the season, I'd like to see a mostly healthy team with Wall, Beal, Bertans and Bryant all together and see how successful they can be in March and April.

I hadn't considered that part of the equation. A healthy team looks like what right now? This?

Wall/Ish
Beal/McRae
Bonga/Brown
Hachimura/Bertans
Bryant/Wagner

Who are the three other players you keep around for next year to go along with the pick?

Mathews and Schofield for sure. The third guy would depend on who we pick in the 1st and 2nd round and what position they play.

Assuming our 1st is not used on a PG, I'd probably lean toward keeping a PG with that final spot. If I had to choose now, I'd take Payton.

Another consideration is that we might use the full MLE in the offseason too. I dread the thought that Bonga is our starting SF.

Can you give me your depth chart for next season with your top 13?

[nate33]

Can you give me your depth chart for next season with your top 13?

It's tough when we don't know who we will draft.

Ignoring the 1st and 2nd round picks, it looks like:

PG Wall/Ish
SG Beal/McRae
SF MLE*/Brown
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Bryant/Wagner

End of bench: Payton, Mathews, Schofield, Bonga

That leaves one spot open for our 1st round pick. One of Mathews or our 2nd round pick would have to be on a two-way unless we end up cutting a guy like Bonga.

It's an interesting exercise though. It makes you realize that there isn't all that much benefit in obtaining extra late 2nd's in some Trade Deadline deal. We don't really have the roster spots to use them unless some type of consolidation trade is made.

*I'm thinking that MLE SF will be someone like Jerami Grant or Mo Harkless, unless Bonga makes a massive improvement in shooting in the offseason.

[dckingsfan]

Can you give me your depth chart for next season with your top 13?

It's tough when we don't know who we will draft.

Ignoring the 1st and 2nd round picks, it looks like:

PG Wall/Ish
SG Beal/McRae
SF MLE*/Brown
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Bryant/Wagner

End of bench: Payton, Mathews, Schofield, Bonga

That leaves one spot open for our 1st round pick. One of Mathews or our 2nd round pick would have to be on a two-way unless we end up cutting a guy like Bonga.

It's an interesting exercise though. It makes you realize that there isn't all that much benefit in obtaining extra late 2nd's in some Trade Deadline deal. We don't really have the roster spots to use them unless some type of consolidation trade is made.

*I'm thinking that MLE SF will be someone like Jerami Grant or Mo Harkless, unless Bonga makes a massive improvement in shooting in the offseason.

Two good points you make. Any trade should be for picks in the future (I would even think about moving our 2020 2nd for one in the future or stash picks.

Indirectly if either Bonga or Brown or both make a big leap in their shooting it would be incredibly beneficial. It would allow for a Brown/Bonga or Bonga/Brown SF duo. Then just pick the BPA and really don't worry about position - and that has to be very positive both in approaching the draft and moving forward.

[DCZards]

For those proposing a Beal for Simmons trade the time might be ripe because the Sixers are unhappy with their current situation. Check out these recent articles:

Sixers To Target Perimeter Players In Trade Market

The Philadelphia 76ers will be in the market for "perimeter shooting threats with playmaking ability," league sources told Tim MacMahon of ESPN.

The Sixers have lost 4 straight games, including most recently to the Rockets where they shot 6-of-27 from 3.

Joel Embiid expressed his concerns with the Sixers' spacing. "I'm being doubled every time I have the ball and everybody crowds the paint, so it's kind of hard to just move the ball and just keep it moving and find ways to score," said Embiid.

Joel Embiid drops subtle Ben Simmons dig with 76ers in trouble

Just shoot the ball.
That was Joel Embiid’s message for Ben Simmons, if you read between the lines. The 76ers star merely said it in a politically-correct fashion without publicly ripping Simmons, the versatile point forward whose reluctance to shoot from the perimeter has been a story since he came into the league as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft.

“We just got to look at ourselves and see what we can do individually, we’ve got to help each other even if it means being outside of your comfort zone for the greater [good] to help the team win,” Embiid told reporters on Thursday, in the wake of a three-game losing streak that included a New Year’s Eve blowout loss to the Pacers.

“Meaning that, if you’ve got to space and shoot it, you’ve got to do it. We need everybody to buy into that and we’ll be fine, we’re going to be fine. We’re still finding our groove, we haven’t been totally healthy, the whole starting lineup. Like I said, we’ll be fine.”

For all of Simmons’ talent, his inability – and refusal – to shoot has held him back. SImmons has attempted five 3-pointers this season, including the first two makes of his NBA career. His lack of shooting, though, has led to spacing issues that have threatened to derail the 23-13 76ers’ title chances.

Embiid has touched on the subject before, saying in December double-teams often come off Simmons’ man. In November, he put it bluntly: “For us to win, we are going to need him to shoot.”

Simmons definitely does a LOT to help his team win games. But I’m not a big fan because his terrible shooting and reluctance to shoot hurts his team. This is a problem that really shows up during the playoffs when wide open, fastbreak play is limited and teams are forced to play more half court basketball.

A Zards team with mediocre shooters like Wall and Simmons as the primary ballhandlers and perimeter players is going to be very problematic.

Beal is more valuable to the Zards than Simmons.

[nate33]

For those proposing a Beal for Simmons trade the time might be ripe because the Sixers are unhappy with their current situation. Check out these recent articles:

Sixers To Target Perimeter Players In Trade Market

The Philadelphia 76ers will be in the market for "perimeter shooting threats with playmaking ability," league sources told Tim MacMahon of ESPN.

The Sixers have lost 4 straight games, including most recently to the Rockets where they shot 6-of-27 from 3.

Joel Embiid expressed his concerns with the Sixers' spacing. "I'm being doubled every time I have the ball and everybody crowds the paint, so it's kind of hard to just move the ball and just keep it moving and find ways to score," said Embiid.

Joel Embiid drops subtle Ben Simmons dig with 76ers in trouble

Just shoot the ball.
That was Joel Embiid’s message for Ben Simmons, if you read between the lines. The 76ers star merely said it in a politically-correct fashion without publicly ripping Simmons, the versatile point forward whose reluctance to shoot from the perimeter has been a story since he came into the league as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft.

“We just got to look at ourselves and see what we can do individually, we’ve got to help each other even if it means being outside of your comfort zone for the greater [good] to help the team win,” Embiid told reporters on Thursday, in the wake of a three-game losing streak that included a New Year’s Eve blowout loss to the Pacers.

“Meaning that, if you’ve got to space and shoot it, you’ve got to do it. We need everybody to buy into that and we’ll be fine, we’re going to be fine. We’re still finding our groove, we haven’t been totally healthy, the whole starting lineup. Like I said, we’ll be fine.”

For all of Simmons’ talent, his inability – and refusal – to shoot has held him back. SImmons has attempted five 3-pointers this season, including the first two makes of his NBA career. His lack of shooting, though, has led to spacing issues that have threatened to derail the 23-13 76ers’ title chances.

Embiid has touched on the subject before, saying in December double-teams often come off Simmons’ man. In November, he put it bluntly: “For us to win, we are going to need him to shoot.”

Simmons definitely does a LOT to help his team win games. But I’m not a big fan because his terrible shooting and reluctance to shoot hurts his team. This is a problem that really shows up during the playoffs when wide open, fastbreak play is limited and teams are forced to play more half court basketball.

A Zards team with mediocre shooters like Wall and Simmons as the primary ballhandlers and perimeter players is going to be very problematic.

Beal is more valuable to the Zards than Simmons.

Beal can't be traded until the offseason. Simmons has a poison pill provision that also makes him virtually untradeable until the offseason. If such a trade happens, it won't be now. It'll be in the offseason. Frankly, I think Philly would be wise to give it one more go with Simmons in the playoffs this year before considering moving him.

I really do think a Beal for Simmons trade would make a ton of sense for both teams. I think having a defensive ace like Simmons who can guard any position and play elite help defense is one of the most critical components to have for a winning team. His unwillingness to shoot is a problem, but less of a problem when the offense runs through him. Remember the 16-game winning streak the Sixers had two years ago when Embiid got hurt? It was basically just Simmons surrounded by a bunch of shooters (Redick, Covington, Bellineli, Ilyasova). And that was when Simmons was only 21 at the time. I think we can emulate the same thing here with guys like Bertans, Wagner, Mathews and McRae. We would need one more star caliber guard to build around, and that's exactly what's available in this draft.

The only downside is that I don't think Simmons and Wall would be a great pairing unless Wall has massively improved his outside shot.

[payitforward]

...Wall/Ish
Beal/McRae
Bonga/Brown
Hachimura/Bertans
Bryant/Wagner
...

...PG Wall/Ish
SG Beal/McRae
SF MLE*/Brown
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Bryant/Wagner...

Troy Brown Jr. should be starting now, & he certainly should be our starting 3 next year. As a 19 year old rookie last year, he already posted above average numbers overall for an NBA SF.

This year, overall, he is playing at a higher level than last year. He is 20 years old.

[DCZards]

Beal can't be traded until the offseason. Simmons has a poison pill provision that also makes him virtually untradeable until the offseason. If such a trade happens, it won't be now. It'll be in the offseason. Frankly, I think Philly would be wise to give it one more go with Simmons in the playoffs this year before considering moving him.

I really do think a Beal for Simmons trade would make a ton of sense for both teams. I think having a defensive ace like Simmons who can guard any position and play elite help defense is one of the most critical components to have for a winning team. His unwillingness to shoot is a problem, but less of a problem when the offense runs through him. Remember the 16-game winning streak the Sixers had two years ago when Embiid got hurt? It was basically just Simmons surrounded by a bunch of shooters (Redick, Covington, Bellineli, Ilyasova). And that was when Simmons was only 21 at the time. I think we can emulate the same thing here with guys like Bertans, Wagner, Mathews and McRae. We would need one more star caliber guard to build around, and that's exactly what's available in this draft.

The only downside is that I don't think Simmons and Wall would be a great pairing unless Wall has massively improved his outside shot.

Good points. I agree that Simmons as a defensive force is a very valuable commodity. And the idea of Simmons running the offense and being surrounded being by shooters like Betrans, Mathews, McRae, etc. is no doubt appealing.

But Wall is coming back…and I’m taking the Wall-Beal pairing over the Wall-Simmons combo.

Forgot Beal can't be traded until the offseason.

[dckingsfan]

Beal can't be traded until the offseason. Simmons has a poison pill provision that also makes him virtually untradeable until the offseason. If such a trade happens, it won't be now. It'll be in the offseason. Frankly, I think Philly would be wise to give it one more go with Simmons in the playoffs this year before considering moving him.

I really do think a Beal for Simmons trade would make a ton of sense for both teams. I think having a defensive ace like Simmons who can guard any position and play elite help defense is one of the most critical components to have for a winning team. His unwillingness to shoot is a problem, but less of a problem when the offense runs through him. Remember the 16-game winning streak the Sixers had two years ago when Embiid got hurt? It was basically just Simmons surrounded by a bunch of shooters (Redick, Covington, Bellineli, Ilyasova). And that was when Simmons was only 21 at the time. I think we can emulate the same thing here with guys like Bertans, Wagner, Mathews and McRae. We would need one more star caliber guard to build around, and that's exactly what's available in this draft.

The only downside is that I don't think Simmons and Wall would be a great pairing unless Wall has massively improved his outside shot.

Good points. I agree that Simmons as a defensive force is a very valuable commodity. And the idea of Simmons running the offense and being surrounded being by shooters like Betrans, Mathews, McRae, etc. is no doubt appealing.

But Wall is coming back…and I’m taking the Wall-Beal pairing over the Wall-Simmons combo.

Forgot Beal can't be traded until the offseason.

The thing is - and I know this is going to sound weird. I think Beal wants to be here. And I think Simmons wants to be in Philly.

So there is that...

[nate33]

The thing is - and I know this is going to sound weird. I think Beal wants to be here. And I think Simmons wants to be in Philly.

So there is that...

That's definitely an important consideration when dealing with star players.

But are we sure Simmons wants to be in Philly? He clearly is a bad fit with Embiid, and Embiid is the beloved superstar on the roster, with Ben Simmons getting more criticism.

Also, Simmons is signed for the next 5 years. There isn't a player in the league locked up for longer than that. Even if he's disappointed in the trade, he'll have time to learn to like it here.

Think about the ages though. Simmons is 23. Bryant is 22. Rui is 21. Brown is 20. Wagner is 22. Our lotto pick will presumably be 19 or 20. The entire young core is the same basic age as Simmons. Ish (31), Bertans (27), McRae (28) and Wall (29) would be veteran leaders. There's also Mathews (23), Bonga (20), and Schofield (22) who may stick around for a while if they prove to be better than potential alternatives in free agency and the draft.

[nate33]

Beal is shooting 30.6% on 3-pointers this season.

In 2016-17, he was a great shooter, hitting 40.4% of his 3's.
In 2017-18, he was a somewhat overrated shooter, still hitting 37.5% of his 3's, but not really on elite volume.
In 2018-19, he was a mediocre shooter, hitting 35.5% of his 3's
This year, he is a flat out bad shooter. 30.6% from 3 is just awful.

I really hope this is just the John Wall effect in reverse, and that things will get better once he has a real PG to set him up. But I'm starting to doubt.

[queridiculo]

Beal is shooting 30.6% on 3-pointers this season.

In 2016-17, he was a great shooter, hitting 40.4% of his 3's.
In 2017-18, he was a somewhat overrated shooter, still hitting 37.5% of his 3's, but not really on elite volume.
In 2018-19, he was a mediocre shooter, hitting 35.5% of his 3's
This year, he is a flat out bad shooter. 30.6% from 3 is just awful.

I really hope this is just the John Wall effect in reverse, and that things will get better once he has a real PG to set him up. But I'm starting to doubt.

Unfortunately defender distance seems to have very little impact on his accuracy, he's just bad across the board.

.36 wide open (2.2 3PA)
.32 open (4.0 3PA)
.23 tight (1.7 3PA)

Contrast with Bertans who's just an absolute sniper this year.

.51 wide open (1.8 3PA)
.45 open (4.1 3PA)
.37 tight (2.6 3PA)

Beal is getting quality looks judging by the closest defender data, he's just missing them.

[nate33]

Interesting way of looking at it.

The numbers for Beal in 2018-19 were:
41% wide open
31% open
22% tight

In 2017-18, they were:
45% wide open
33% open
30% tight

In 2016-17, they were:
43% wide open
40% open
37% tight

His ability to hit wide open shots dropped a bit last year and then a great deal more this year. Meanwhile, his ability to hit contested shots dropped dramatically between 2016-17 and 2017-18, but plateaued after that.

The drop in his ability to hit contested shots may have something to do with the John Wall effect. His contested shots in 2016-17 were presumably catch-and-shoots with a closing defender. That's a pretty predictable situation. Beal can instantly calculate as he is receiving the ball whether he has the time to get it off or not. The fact that the defender closed to within 4-feet by the time he releases doesn't really make it feel like a contested shot. He knew all along he'd get his shot off. But when shooting off the dribble (in 2017-18 and later), a contested shot means you are trying to create space with a defender right on you. That's usually some type of step back or off-balance shot coming around a screen. That's a higher degree of difficulty shot. So the drop in contested shots percentage between 2016-17 and 2017-18 may be understandable.

It's the decline in wide-open shots that's really concerning. Hopefully, he'll regress back up to his mean of 43%.

[payitforward]

Brad's having a terrible year. But, basically I'd say almost all his troubles have one source: he's being asked to do too much. To be clearer, he's being asked to shoot too much.

An average 2 takes 14.17 shots per 40 minutes. In 2016-17, Brad took 19.75 shots per 40 minutes -- over 39% more than average.

This year, he's taking 24.17 shots per 40 minutes -- 22.4% more than in 2016-17 & fully 70% more shots than an average 2.

Last year was Brad's best year -- not just in shooting/scoring but in everything else as well. & when I look at those "everything else" numbers for this year, I see that he's on a par with last year, with a single exception -- turnovers. Brad's turnovers are up by the same % as his FGAs. Not unexpected.

For crystal clarity, look at it as follows: this year, Brad is scoring 2.92 more points per 40 minutes than last year. 2.17 of those points are coming at the line (both his FTAs & FT% are at career highs).

Thus, the 4.42 extra shots per 40 minutes that Brad is taking this year (plus the .67 extra turnovers that go with the extra shots) are producing .75 extra points.

In his career, LeBron has never taken the number of shots per 40 minutes that Brad is taking this year. Michael Jordan didn't quite equal this number in his best 4-year stretch. James Harden, in his first 9 years in the league, never took this many shots.

Not to put too fine a point on it, Bradley Beal is not a good enough player that he can shoot this much. Period.

[Ruzious]

Brad's having a terrible year. But, basically I'd say almost all his troubles have one source: he's being asked to do too much. To be clearer, he's being asked to shoot too much.

An average 2 takes 14.17 shots per 40 minutes. In 2016-17, Brad took 19.75 shots per 40 minutes -- over 39% more than average.

This year, he's taking 24.17 shots per 40 minutes -- 22.4% more than in 2016-17 & fully 70% more shots than an average 2.

Last year was Brad's best year -- not just in shooting/scoring but in everything else as well. & when I look at those "everything else" numbers for this year, I see that he's on a par with last year, with a single exception -- turnovers. Brad's turnovers are up by the same % as his FGAs. Not unexpected.

For crystal clarity, look at it as follows: this year, Brad is scoring 2.92 more points per 40 minutes than last year. 2.17 of those points are coming at the line (both his FTAs & FT% are at career highs).

Thus, the 4.42 extra shots per 40 minutes that Brad is taking this year (plus the .67 extra turnovers that go with the extra shots) are producing .75 extra points.

In his career, LeBron has never taken the number of shots per 40 minutes that Brad is taking this year. Michael Jordan didn't quite equal this number in his best 4-year stretch. James Harden, in his first 9 years in the league, never took this many shots.

Not to put too fine a point on it, Bradley Beal is not a good enough player that he can shoot this much. Period.

Is the taking more shots part of the fact that the whole team is taking more shots? That's why scoring is up. I think they set a record the other day with 110 shots. They're trying to play the game at a faster pace.

Going to nate's points on the percentages, is it that he's a better catch and shoot shooter and not as good off the dribble? He's been playin with the ball more and more - and especially with no John Wall dishing it to him. Maybe Beal should be playing off the ball more. We'll likely see Beal's 3 point shooting improve when Wall returns.

[payitforward]

Nah. The team is taking 2.4 more shots per game (240 player minutes) than last year. Brad is taking @ 24 more shots per 240 minutes!

[payitforward]

Btw, so far we are scoring exactly .8 more points per game than last year! While giving up 3 more points than last year.

[payitforward]

...Going to nate's points on the percentages, is it that he's a better catch and shoot shooter and not as good off the dribble? He's been playin with the ball more and more - and especially with no John Wall dishing it to him. Maybe Beal should be playing off the ball more. We'll likely see Beal's 3 point shooting improve when Wall returns.

One thing people usually fail to take into account: every player gets some number of bunnies (virtually 100% likely to go in), & every player gets some number of relatively easy, wide open shots too.

When usage goes up, those aren't the shot attempts you are adding! Duh. Hence, increasing usage is absolutely always going to lower a guy's FG%. It cannot be otherwise.

If a guy is already high usage, then you have to assume that the shots he adds that increase usage further are, at least a whole lot of them, relatively low-percentage attempts, no?

From a different angle: aside from the bunnies, etc., there are shots a player likes to take, feels most comfortable taking. He's more likely to take those than other shots.

In that case too, if he adds usage, those are not likely the kinds of FGAs he adds -- he was always likely to take those shots.

Add in the constraints of the shot clock and of teammates who aren't accustomed to shooting much (e.g. Bonga -- but not just him!), & the guy is going to find himself taking shots in situations that he wouldn't be likely to draw up for himself!

It's not just guys who don't want to shoot, btw -- it can be guys who a player has no history of passing to, setting up, etc.

E.g., Mathews is shooting great. But, he's only taken just over 10 FGAs per 40 minutes -- not much!

[Ruzious]

Nah. The team is taking 2.4 more shots per game (240 player minutes) than last year. Brad is taking @ 24 more shots per 240 minutes!

Compare apples to apples. It helps stop confusion. Brad's averaging 2.2 more shots per game in roughly the same minutes per game (36.9 last season and 36.2 this season). So, he's basically taken all of the additional shots the team has taken and not doing well with them. Note to Brad: Stop doing that, and when in doubt - NEVER take a 3 off the dribble. Edit, I should be clearer - Never take a 3 off the dribble when you're in doubt.

[Ruzious]

...Going to nate's points on the percentages, is it that he's a better catch and shoot shooter and not as good off the dribble? He's been playin with the ball more and more - and especially with no John Wall dishing it to him. Maybe Beal should be playing off the ball more. We'll likely see Beal's 3 point shooting improve when Wall returns.

One thing people usually fail to take into account: every player gets some number of bunnies (virtually 100% likely to go in), & every player gets some number of relatively easy, wide open shots too.

When usage goes up, those aren't the shot attempts you are adding! Duh. Hence, increasing usage is absolutely always going to lower a guy's FG%. It cannot be otherwise.

If a guy is already high usage, then you have to assume that the shots he adds that increase usage further are, at least a whole lot of them, relatively low-percentage attempts, no?

From a different angle: aside from the bunnies, etc., there are shots a player likes to take, feels most comfortable taking. He's more likely to take those than other shots.

In that case too, if he adds usage, those are not likely the kinds of FGAs he adds -- he was always likely to take those shots.

Add in the constraints of the shot clock and of teammates who aren't accustomed to shooting much (e.g. Bonga -- but not just him!), & the guy is going to find himself taking shots in situations that he wouldn't be likely to draw up for himself!

It's not just guys who don't want to shoot, btw -- it can be guys who a player has no history of passing to, setting up, etc.

E.g., Mathews is shooting great. But, he's only taken just over 10 FGAs per 40 minutes -- not much!

Mathews is a 3 point shooting specialist, so it makes sense that he doesn't have a ton of shot attempts. Almost all of his shots are 3's.

See that, I read your post all the way to the end, high usage poster.

[smoothSeph]

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What's up with this guy? Does he not understand he's a part of the problem right now? Play defense, stop chucking and more wins will come.