Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[nate33]

I can't believe I'm saying this but we could easily go to the ECF at this rate. LETS GO!!!!!!!!!!!

I keep hearing on Locked on Wizards that the Wiz are one big move away from being truly competitive. Iv'e always thought two big moves away and one has already happened.
Gaff is now starting with KP and Kuz to become a big defensive front 3. We are seeing a dramatic change from top to bottom of the rotation. The next big change is Beal needs to play the majority of minutes at the PG position with Delon Wright as the primary backup'. The thing Beal has to commit too is sharing the responsibilities of bringing the ball up and getting the ball moving along with Kuz and Deni. He cant be the primary guy bringing the ball up ,that turns him into a ballstopper.
A big part of the success of the Wiz now is Rui and Kuz can end to end drive to the hoop while not having to wait for anyone else and its setting up a much faster pace.
Then keep the Wiz into a 9 man rotation:
PG) Beal
SG) Kispert
SF) Kuzma
PF) KP
C) Gafford
6th) Rui
7th) Deni
8th) Delon
9th) Morris

I don't think that lineup has enough sound ball handling. Beal is too turnover prone as a PG, and the problem is magnified when there is only one other competent ball handler in the lineup (Kuzma). If you are going to start Beal at PG, I think both Kuzma and Deni need to be on the court with him. Kispert will have to come off the bench.

Also, if you are starting Beal at PG, how are going to find time for both Wright and Morris? Basically, you are removing Morris from the rotation. I'm not saying that's wrong, but it's not accurate to suggest that he is part of the 9-man rotation. If you start Beal at PG, you are going to have to run an 8-man rotation: Beal, Kispert and Wright at guard, Avdija, Kuzma and Rui at forward, and Gafford and Porzingis at center (with Porzingis stealing a few extra minutes at PF).

[tleikheen]

Morris is just fine as the starting PG.

No he is not fine as a PG ,he wasn't at Denver and he's not with the Wiz. And it remains the #1 needof the Wiz. Yet here we have Beal already avging over 5 apg andd he already is playing PG in alot of the 4th quarters.
Acting like Beal will run the offense exclusively is to not have watched the Wiz games and as close as the last game when Kuzma got 11 assists . The injuries has seen Kuz and deni help bring the ball up and get the offense going.

As the Wiz move up in the standings and Beal is back to healthy somebody will have to sit more on the bench and that looks to be Morris . It wont be Deni ,Rui,Kispert or Delon Wright.

[DCZards]

Morris will continue to start when Beal returns…and he should.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I can't believe I'm saying this but we could easily go to the ECF at this rate. LETS GO!!!!!!!!!!!

I keep hearing on Locked on Wizards that the Wiz are one big move away from being truly competitive. Iv'e always thought two big moves away and one has already happened.
Gaff is now starting with KP and Kuz to become a big defensive front 3. We are seeing a dramatic change from top to bottom of the rotation. The next big change is Beal needs to play the majority of minutes at the PG position with Delon Wright as the primary backup'. The thing Beal has to commit too is sharing the responsibilities of bringing the ball up and getting the ball moving along with Kuz and Deni. He cant be the primary guy bringing the ball up ,that turns him into a ballstopper.
A big part of the success of the Wiz now is Rui and Kuz can end to end drive to the hoop while not having to wait for anyone else and its setting up a much faster pace.
Then keep the Wiz into a 9 man rotation:
PG) Beal
SG) Kispert
SF) Kuzma
PF) KP
C) Gafford
6th) Rui
7th) Deni
8th) Delon
9th) Morris

I like this a bit more for the starting unit.

PG) Kuzma (point forward)
SG) Beal
SF) Kispert
PF) KP
C) Gafford

I am still stuck with what the second unit looks like though. Earlier in the season Wes would sub out 5 players, I don't think he can do that effectively with this starting 5. I think that Beal is going to be in and out of the lineup all year with that hamstring injury. So then it would be:

PG) Kuzma (point forward)
SG) Kispert
SF) Hachimura
PF) KP
C) Gafford

Precisely.

Same five just get Brad to let go and let Kyle. Kuzma said weeks ago let the offense run through him. Now that Brad is injured and Kyle is driving to the hoop all the time and finishing most I THINK WES finally sees.

KP gets NBA Eastern Conference POTW not coincidentally starting with Kyle at point forward and DG playing C.

The best thing that can happen is a protracted Beal sabbatical with Wright and Rui and Wright and Deni all continuing to play well. Kyle Kuzma is a better leader than Beal. Beal’s a better player but I think Porzingis is the best player with pieces around him. Kyle and Deni as point forwards with Rui dicing up defenses is going to continue to win games.

[nate33]

Morris will continue to start when Beal returns…and he should.

I tend to agree. It would be extremely bold to disrupt a rotation that has won 5 in a row and 6 out of the last 7.

But if the defense starts to falter again, I would be interested in trying Wright in the starting lineup (with Morris coming off the bench).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Morris will continue to start when Beal returns…and he should.

That will happen and coincidentally the defense will not be good, clutch execution will resort to iso ball, the Wizards will lose a lot of games.

Morris is a fine player but I think there are even better options than playing a small, ball dominant backcourt.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Morris will continue to start when Beal returns…and he should.

I tend to agree. It would be extremely bold to disrupt a rotation that has won 5 in a row and 6 out of the last 7.

But if the defense starts to falter again, I would be interested in trying Wright in the starting lineup (with Morris coming off the bench).

I think Wright will eventually supplant MM at PG.

I still prefer Kuzma as SF leading the offense with both Beal and Kispert at Gs. Wright is still better than Corey, I guess. Monte definitely can run an offense. Good problem to have, options.

[payitforward]

Morris will continue to start when Beal returns…and he should.

As Monte began the season, he had trouble making his 3s. But, now his % is up to .375, so I think we can probably conclude that the problem is behind him.

It's unclear to me what other complaint one would want to make of his play. He's not a great defender, but few players are. He can't, as nate puts it, "bend the defense," but few PGs can.

As with any other player, it's best to start with what Monte *can* do. Nor do I mean things he "can" do based on my assessment of his "gifts." I mean things I know he "can" do, because I see in his numbers that he "does" do them.

For example, I see that over the last 2 seasons overall, he's posted a .58 TS%. So I know he "can" do that. (An average PG is at 54.7%)
This year, I see that his assist to turnover ratio is 6.5. So I know he "can" do that. (An average PG is at 2.42)

Of course, I don't think he's ideal. I don't think any player is ideal. & I'm perfectly aware that there are better PGs than Monte.
But, how do you know who's better & who's worse?

Tell you what, let's compare a couple of PGs -- we'll call them Joe & Harry.

[payitforward]

The tale of Joe & Harry

Every 36 minutes, Joe takes 10.8 FGAs & 3.3 FTAs while Harry takes 10.3 & 1.7. Joe produces 1.5 more points on that extra .5 FGAs & extra 1.6 FTAs: 14 vs. 12.5.

Not a big difference -- but worth noting. It means that Joe's TS% is higher than Harry's by .012% (.570 vs. .558). Plus, Joe gets @ 1/2 extra rebound over Harry in that same 36 minutes.

Small but clear advantage to Joe so far, wouldn't you say?

Yet, Joe turns the ball over 1.2 more times than Harry in the same 36 minutes. & that more than wipes out his little advantage. That's like taking an extra shot, missing it, & having the other team get the rebound. (Actually, it's slightly worse than that, since opposing teams score more easily off of turnovers than their defensive boards.)

Still, it's pretty even so far; maybe a bit of an advantage to Harry -- but nothing much.

However, in that same 36 minutes, Joe commits one more foul than Harry.
& he gets 1 less assist than Harry.

That makes Harry's advantage over Joe pretty clear -- it's still not a big advantage, but it's clear enough that you can see the space between the two.

Now, as I'm sure you've guessed, "Harry" is Monte Morris. So, what the numbers say, straightforwardly, is that Monte Morris is having a better year than "Joe" -- whoever that is. Not hugely better -- don't get me wrong! But, still, unmistakably better

Anyone care to disagree?
Show me the mistake I've made based on those numbers?

If you can't show me where I've made a mistake, I guess that means you agree that Harry (Monte Morris) is having a better season than "Joe" (whoever he is). But, nah, you won't admit that, will you?

No way.... To do that, you'd have to know who "Joe" is, wouldn't you? You'd need to know his name, right? After all, it's a player's name that makes him good. Right?

Is that what you think? So, I really should tell you who Joe is.
& as soon as someone explains why that's important, why it matters, sure... I'll be happy to name his name.

Only thing is... you can't explain why the name is important, can you? Because... after all, it really isn't! Is it?

[daSwami]

The tale of Joe & Harry

Every 36 minutes, Joe takes 10.8 FGAs & 3.3 FTAs while Harry takes 10.3 & 1.7. Joe produces 1.5 more points on that extra .5 FGAs & extra 1.6 FTAs: 14 vs. 12.5.

Not a big difference -- but worth noting. It means that Joe's TS% is higher than Harry's by .012% (.570 vs. .558). Plus, Joe gets @ 1/2 extra rebound over Harry in that same 36 minutes.

Small but clear advantage to Joe so far, wouldn't you say?

Yet, Joe turns the ball over 1.2 more times than Harry in the same 36 minutes. & that more than wipes out his little advantage. That's like taking an extra shot, missing it, & having the other team get the rebound. (Actually, it's slightly worse than that, since opposing teams score more easily off of turnovers than their defensive boards.)

Still, it's pretty even so far; maybe a bit of an advantage to Harry -- but nothing much.

However, in that same 36 minutes, Joe commits one more foul than Harry.
& he gets 1 less assist than Harry.

That makes Harry's advantage over Joe pretty clear -- it's still not a big advantage, but it's clear enough that you can see the space between the two.

Now, as I'm sure you've guessed, "Harry" is Monte Morris. So, what the numbers say, straightforwardly, is that Monte Morris is having a better year than "Joe" -- whoever that is. Not hugely better -- don't get me wrong! But, still, unmistakably better

Anyone care to disagree?
Show me the mistake I've made based on those numbers?

If you can't show me where I've made a mistake, I guess that means you agree that Harry (Monte Morris) is having a better season than "Joe" (whoever he is). But, nah, you won't admit that, will you?

No way.... To do that, you'd have to know who "Joe" is, wouldn't you? You'd need to know his name, right? After all, it's a player's name that makes him good. Right?

Is that what you think? So, I really should tell you who Joe is.
& as soon as someone explains why that's important, why it matters, sure... I'll be happy to name his name.

Only thing is... you can't explain why the name is important, can you? Because... after all, it really isn't! Is it?

My dad's name is Harold, so I'm a team Harry ride-or-die.

[dckingsfan]

I keep hearing on Locked on Wizards that the Wiz are one big move away from being truly competitive. Iv'e always thought two big moves away and one has already happened.
Gaff is now starting with KP and Kuz to become a big defensive front 3. We are seeing a dramatic change from top to bottom of the rotation. The next big change is Beal needs to play the majority of minutes at the PG position with Delon Wright as the primary backup'. The thing Beal has to commit too is sharing the responsibilities of bringing the ball up and getting the ball moving along with Kuz and Deni. He cant be the primary guy bringing the ball up ,that turns him into a ballstopper.
A big part of the success of the Wiz now is Rui and Kuz can end to end drive to the hoop while not having to wait for anyone else and its setting up a much faster pace.
Then keep the Wiz into a 9 man rotation:
PG) Beal
SG) Kispert
SF) Kuzma
PF) KP
C) Gafford
6th) Rui
7th) Deni
8th) Delon
9th) Morris

I like this a bit more for the starting unit.

PG) Kuzma (point forward)
SG) Beal
SF) Kispert
PF) KP
C) Gafford

I am still stuck with what the second unit looks like though. Earlier in the season Wes would sub out 5 players, I don't think he can do that effectively with this starting 5. I think that Beal is going to be in and out of the lineup all year with that hamstring injury. So then it would be:

PG) Kuzma (point forward)
SG) Kispert
SF) Hachimura
PF) KP
C) Gafford

Precisely.

Same five just get Brad to let go and let Kyle. Kuzma said weeks ago let the offense run through him. Now that Brad is injured and Kyle is driving to the hoop all the time and finishing most I THINK WES finally sees.

KP gets NBA Eastern Conference POTW not coincidentally starting with Kyle at point forward and DG playing C.

The best thing that can happen is a protracted Beal sabbatical with Wright and Rui and Wright and Deni all continuing to play well. Kyle Kuzma is a better leader than Beal. Beal’s a better player but I think Porzingis is the best player with pieces around him. Kyle and Deni as point forwards with Rui dicing up defenses is going to continue to win games.

Right there with you... that and the KP/Gafford duo will make Hachimura's defensive liabilities disappear.

[dckingsfan]

Morris will continue to start when Beal returns…and he should.

That will happen and coincidentally the defense will not be good, clutch execution will resort to iso ball, the Wizards will lose a lot of games.

Morris is a fine player but I think there are even better options than playing a small, ball dominant backcourt.

I am with you on this one as well. I don't hate on Morris at all (although I didn't like the trade). It is just that the combo of Morris/Beal isn't a good one especially with Beal hobbled with the hammy.

We have better options, namely to go big (the strength of this particular team).

[tleikheen]

We saw against a real good team the effect Kuzma has on the Wiz team. When he is the engine of team ball ,moving the ball sharing the ball, the Wiz are a different team. Last night we saw the Kuzma who tryed mano y mano against the best player in the world and he got smoked .
Porzingis and Hachimura who are showing themselves to be needed in putting up points were after thoughts as Kuz gunned away. The Wiz could have actually won last night if there was balance on the court,shooting wise.
I agree with the NBA Live guys .The Wiz defenders didnt get up on Giannis , they let him go downhill the whole night. Their defense was to reach and try to strip over body up and take the hit from Giannis. They also let Lopez and Portis go to the front of the rim and park and own the paint without any pushback .The Bucks played power and bullied the Wiz to a win.

[payitforward]

We saw against a real good team the effect Kuzma has on the Wiz team.

No, not really; what we saw in the first Milwaukee game was that without Giannis the Bucks are a different team. Duh! -- not to mention that they also lacked Jrue Holiday & Khris Middleton.

When (Kuz) is the engine of team ball ,moving the ball sharing the ball, the Wiz are a different team....

Did you actually watch that game? Although Kuz did log assists & boards that night -- for which he deserves the credit you give him -- overall, his performance didn't help us get that win. He went 5-16, missed his only FTA -- & turned the ball over 5 times! Awful!

...Last night we saw the Kuzma who tryed mano y mano against the best player in the world and he got smoked....

That he did! Then again, as far as it matters, he shot the ball better than in the 1st Bucks game!

It's pretty simple, really: the best Wizards players in the first Bucks game -- by far! -- were Kispert, Gafford, & Rui, who combined to turn 32 shots & 9 FTAs into 55 points (a combined .765 TS% !). Porzingis was pretty good as well. Give Wright a lot of credit too. Kuz had nothing to do with that win.

...The Wiz could have actually won last night (i.e. the 2d game) if there was balance on the court, shooting wise....

No way. They dominated us. We had a little run in the 3d quarter when they were on auto-pilot. That was it.

[Dat2U]

Morris makes 3s, gets the team into its sets, keeps the guys organized and he can also find the open man. He would be great for the Mavs, Lakers or even the Clippers. Teams that have dynamic wings that are the hub of their offenses where he can function as a secondary ball handler and spot up for created opportunities. He's definitely not a true PG but I've come to think of him a winner and a solid rotation player worthy his salary. A high level backup or a mid-to-low end starter at PG. On the other hand its always going to be a quest to upgrade his postion to more dynamic option when considering the current roster.

[9 and 20]

Maybe a goofy football analogy but Morris is more a Kirk Cousins type guy on offense or maybe Alex Smith on 1.5 legs. Not going to make a ton of mistakes but doesn't take many risks either. He's good in that role and yeah, when the rest of the roster is good, that's probably enough at the PG position. Wiz roster isn't good enough though.

[DCZards]

Certainly the Zards need better PG play. I had hoped that once he was given the keys to the Zards offense Morris would be more of an attacking PG, creating opportunities for himself and teammates. But obviously that’s not who he is.

However, suggestions that Monte shouldn’t even be in the rotation (or should be the 9th man) shows that some fail to appreciate what he does bring to the table.

Morris is a solid floor general, he gets a decent amount of assists (over 5 per game), he knocks down the open three and, probably most importantly, he rarely turns the ball over.

Those are winning attributes.

[payitforward]

Morris makes 3s, gets the team into its sets, keeps the guys organized and he can also find the open man. He would be great for the Mavs, Lakers or even the Clippers. Teams that have dynamic wings that are the hub of their offenses where he can function as a secondary ball handler and spot up for created opportunities. He's definitely not a true PG but I've come to think of him a winner and a solid rotation player worthy his salary. A high level backup or a mid-to-low end starter at PG. On the other hand its always going to be a quest to upgrade his position to more dynamic option when considering the current roster.

Bingo!

The problem is where that "more dynamic option" comes from & how he gets here. There is no obvious solution to that problem. Unless the guy happens to come to us via the draft. I can't see a trade that would get it done.

Which means that, concretely, it's not practical for our FO to make upgrading PG a high priority (though of course be opportunistic!).

[FAH1223]

After half a season

21st in ORTG (though it’s top 10 when Beal plays)
13th in DRTG

[penbeast0]

After half a season

21st in ORTG (though it’s top 10 when Beal plays)
13th in DRTG

If the Drtg as good when Beal plays?