Official John Wall Appreciation Thread

[cleek+wall]

Irving may be a better shooter but wall has him beat in all other categories.

Wall is a better defender
wall is the better passer
wall is more athletic
Iving is a derick rose type. A scoring guard and ball hogger....

wall is a "true" pg and i do believe john will be the better "pg".

[theboomking]

Wall will be an all-star this year and lead us to the playoffs. All the haters are gunna have to shut up real soon.

Yup those Irving lovers will be eating crow

I don't think so. I believe Irving is going to distance himself from Wall as the better PG. Kyrie is a much, much better shooter. He doesn't have to operate at 100 mph to be effective. He's better than Wall, though not nearly the athlete. John has proven to be more durable than Kyrie Irving, but IMO he's not as good.

Kyrie is a better scorer than Wall but isn't as good as Wall in any other phase of the game. Wall is a better passer, defender, rebounder, etc.

[cleek+wall]

Wall will be an all-star this year and lead us to the playoffs. All the haters are gunna have to shut up real soon.

ya, for real. They cant see great talent. Wall was fantatic towards the end of last season...he will def make the all star tis season , for sure.

[Nivek]

Irving may be a better shooter but wall has him beat in all other categories.

Wall is a better defender

A) Defense isn't a strength for either player.
B) By what measure?

Both teams were worse defensively when Irving and Wall were on the floor. The gap was larger for the Wizards than for Cleveland last season. Wall comes out well ahead in the counterpart stats department, but as I demonstrated several years ago in my defensive tracking project, counterpart stats are dubious.

wall is the better passer

Maybe. Wall had more assists last season, but Irving was asked to carry a bigger scoring load -- perhaps because he was a MUCH better scorer than Wall.

Here's the complete list of rookies in the 3pt era who had a usage rate of 28 or higher and an individual offensive rating of 108 or better. (Keep in mind that average usage is 20 and average iortg last season was 104.7):

- Michael Jordan
- Kyrie Irving

That's it. End of list.

Lower the usage rate to 25 (which is still high) and add the following rookies: David Robinson, Arvydas Sabonis, Shaquille O'Neal, Terry Cummings, Blake Griffin, Alonzo Mourning, Larry Bird, Marcus Thornton.

wall is more athletic

Which would be great if the sport was "run and jump" and not "basketball." Basketball is a game that combines skill and athleticism, but it's foremost about skill. Irving's athletic ability is more than adequate for the NBA, and his skills are superior to Wall's. Wall can likely improve his skills if he works hard enough, and the end result could well be that he's a better player than Irving.

Iving is a derick rose type. A scoring guard and ball hogger....

Irving is no more a ball hog than Arenas was. Shooting the ball doesn't mean a guy is a ball hog, especially when he's playing the role his coaches have asked him to play. When Arenas was in DC, he was asked to be a scorer and he was terrific at it. Last season, Cleveland asked Irving to be a scorer, and he was good at it even while generating 6+ assists per 36 minutes.

wall is a "true" pg and i do believe john will be the better player.

I hope Wall will be the better player. But "true" PG is a distinction without meaning. What matters is impact on the game, and Irving is ahead of Wall in that regard. Wall certainly could be the better player if he comes back with a jumper and better decision-making (which would show up as a reduction in turnovers).

[Higga]

I have nothing against Irving. He's a good player. I'd still take Wall for overall upside though. I think this is the year he puts it together. Irving didn't have to deal with the clowns Wall did that hindered his development. I fully expect Wall to make the all-star game this year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Here's the complete list of rookies in the 3pt era who had a usage rate of 28 or higher and an individual offensive rating of 108 or better. (Keep in mind that average usage is 20 and average iortg last season was 104.7):

- Michael Jordan
- Kyrie Irving

That's it. End of list.

Lower the usage rate to 25 (which is still high) and add the following rookies: David Robinson, Arvydas Sabonis, Shaquille O'Neal, Terry Cummings, Blake Griffin, Alonzo Mourning, Larry Bird, Marcus Thornton.

wall is more athletic

Which would be great if the sport was "run and jump" and not "basketball." Basketball is a game that combines skill and athleticism, but it's foremost about skill. Irving's athletic ability is more than adequate for the NBA, and his skills are superior to Wall's. Wall can likely improve his skills if he works hard enough, and the end result could well be that he's a better player than Irving.

<snipped>


I hope Wall will be the better player. But "true" PG is a distinction without meaning. What matters is impact on the game, and Irving is ahead of Wall in that regard. Wall certainly could be the better player if he comes back with a jumper and better decision-making (which would show up as a reduction in turnovers).

Nivek, it is really a privilege to know you. I said I know more in another thread with payitforward, but clearly, you're in a class by yourself. Posts like this one say it very clearly without making folks mad.

The best I can do these days at times is rant and make people mad. Nivek, this is really to the point.

Wall did not improve much from season one to season two overall until the very end of the season, when he had a few SICK games. He really does have potential to be great. However, defense and three point shooting are weaknesses in his game. I have considered Wall to be somewhat like the Javale McGee of PGs. If the game were run and jump, no doubt he is the best.

Wall has impressed me with his tenacity and lately, with his humility and added maturity. He did allow the game to come to him a bit more and I saw him change speeds when attacking the basket. The only thing I want to see is for the young man to develop skills. I know the heart and the hustle are there.

If he can get gather just a bit when he pulls up to shoot, make his feet and shoulders square, not drift to the right on his shot, and if he can find a consistent release point; there's no reason why Wall cannot dramatically improve his shooting.

When he does that we can revisit the discussion of Wall vs Irving.

However, right now the other kid is flat better.

[willbcocks]

Wall came into the league as more of a project, and had a great first season. Kyrie had a great first season, possibly a little better than Wall's, but he was more skilled coming in. If they'd each played only one season, it would be pretty close.

The biggest difference between the two is that Wall had a second season and didn't improve that much. I think he improved his defense considerably from year one, and by the end of the year he was less out of control, but no matter how you spin it, year 2 was underwhelming.

At this point, Kyrie's got to have more trade value and higher expectations around the league. I hope Wall proves to be the better player, as better than Kyrie means superstar.

[Dat2U]

I think willbcocks nailed it. Wall didn't regress his 2nd season (except on 3s) but I thought much like his first season he was very inconsistent. I thought he had a terrible beginning before a real nice stretch mid-season and tailing off after the Nene trade (he played better towards the very end though).

Wall's greatest weakness is Kyrie's greatest strength, outside shooting. Kyrie was an elite shooter last year. That's a skill that's not likely to regress over time. He's got a pure stroke. Wall will never come close to shooting anything like Kyrie does, but he really doesn't have to. He just needs to become semi reliable and make defenses pay for going under the pick. Kyrie also has a better handle. Kyrie is no where near the athlete but still gets into the lane with consistency with his advanced ballhandling skills.

Wall probably has an advantage in every other category. Defense (Wall will look a lot better with Nene & Okafor behind him), rebounding, ability to finish around the rim, getting out in transition & he seems to have better court vision. Wall is the more willing passer. Kyrie gets buckets but is a bit shaky when it comes to actually run the team. Cleveland actually looked it's best last year when they'd run Kyrie off screens w/o the ball and let him focus on scoring (mostly when Sessions played with them).

Kyrie is definitely the better player and the more confident one. Kyrie knows he's on the verge of being a star. Wall has to talk himself into believing he can be one. I suspect Wall will take a leap this season (I wonder how much of one?), but who's not to say Kyrie won't do the same? Wall has a higher ceiling, but Kyrie is much closer to being the real deal and is younger. It may change (Kyrie's shot might be rusty coming off surgery for a self inflicted broken hand), but for now, advantage Kyrie.

[Knighthonor]

honest question,,,,

are there any Olympic videos of John Wall playing?

please post them if you know any...

[GhostsOfGil]

Kev, I think you underrate Walls defense. He shared significant time with 2 of the worst defensive PnR bigs in the NBA.

Judging by the box score Wall had some steller defensive performances which show why his counterpart numbers were so good:

Jan 2: Rajon Rondo 3-8 shooting 6 points 7 turnovers in 38 minutes
Jan 4: Jameer Nelson 3-8 shooting 7 points in 35 minutes
Jan 6: Tony Douglas: 0-5 shooting 0 points
Jan 13: Jrue Holiday 5-15 shooting 12 points
Jan 16: Kryle Lowery 4-14 shooting 16 points
Jan 22: Avery Bradley 1-8 shooting 3 points
Jan 25: Kemba Walker 4-19 shooting 8 points
Jan 27: Kyle Lowery 1-7 shooting 9 points
Feb 3: Jose Calderon 2-6 shooting 8 points in 36 minutes
Feb 4: Chris Paul: 1-8 shooting, 2 points in 28 minutes
Feb 6: Jose Calderon: 1-5 shooting 3 points in 35 minutes
Feb 10th: Mario Chalmers 0-3 shooting 0 points
Feb 12: Brandon Knight 1-9 shooting 2 points
Feb 14: Raymond Felton 1-4 shooting 2 points
Feb 20th: Steve Nash 3-6 shooting 12 points
Feb 29th: Jameer Nelson 4-12 shooting 12 points
March 3: Jason Kid 0-3 shooting 0 points
Rajon Rondo 2-5 shooting 4 points
Brandon Knight 3-13 shooting 6 points
Darren Collison 1-5 shooting 6 points
Jrue Holiday 1-5 shooting 2 points


Thats his stand out defensive performances from January to mid march.. I got tired of looking up the game logs but you can get my point. His counterpart numbers are ridiculously good. I did notice a pretty big drop off on the 2nd night of back to backs. Also, his defensive performances seemed to slowly drop off as the season went on but could be due to the very condensed schedule and personel changes.

[Nivek]

Kev, I think you underrate Walls defense. He shared significant time with 2 of the worst defensive PnR bigs in the NBA.

Judging by the box score Wall had some steller defensive performances which show why his counterpart numbers were so good:

Jan 2: Rajon Rondo 3-8 shooting 6 points 7 turnovers in 38 minutes
Jan 4: Jameer Nelson 3-8 shooting 7 points in 35 minutes
Jan 6: Tony Douglas: 0-5 shooting 0 points
Jan 13: Jrue Holiday 5-15 shooting 12 points
Jan 16: Kryle Lowery 4-14 shooting 16 points
Jan 22: Avery Bradley 1-8 shooting 3 points
Jan 25: Kemba Walker 4-19 shooting 8 points
Jan 27: Kyle Lowery 1-7 shooting 9 points
Feb 3: Jose Calderon 2-6 shooting 8 points in 36 minutes
Feb 4: Chris Paul: 1-8 shooting, 2 points in 28 minutes
Feb 6: Jose Calderon: 1-5 shooting 3 points in 35 minutes
Feb 10th: Mario Chalmers 0-3 shooting 0 points
Feb 12: Brandon Knight 1-9 shooting 2 points
Feb 14: Raymond Felton 1-4 shooting 2 points
Feb 20th: Steve Nash 3-6 shooting 12 points
Feb 29th: Jameer Nelson 4-12 shooting 12 points
March 3: Jason Kid 0-3 shooting 0 points
Rajon Rondo 2-5 shooting 4 points
Brandon Knight 3-13 shooting 6 points
Darren Collison 1-5 shooting 6 points
Jrue Holiday 1-5 shooting 2 points


Thats his stand out defensive performances from January to mid march.. I got tired of looking up the game logs but you can get my point. His counterpart numbers are ridiculously good. I did notice a pretty big drop off on the 2nd night of back to backs. Also, his defensive performances seemed to slowly drop off as the season went on but could be due to the very condensed schedule and personel changes.

Counterpart stats are a poor way to evaluate defense. The best number (best in this context meaning "less bad than the others") is team on/off data. Defense is about teamwork despite the insistence of "analysts" in talking about the game as a series of one-on-one matchups. The on/off data has its own issues because of the challenge in teasing out who's actually responsible for the changes we see in those numbers.

When I was doing my defensive tracking project, my tracking let me look at who was responsible for defending every play. An example I used was from a Chicago-Wizards playoff game. Hinrich and Arenas were both listed at PG. They played about the same number of minutes, and were on the floor at the same time most of the game. Hinrich was the primary defender assigned to Arenas, and Gil used 21 possessions that game. Hinrich was credited with defending 7 of those possessions (the actual number of possessions was a little higher because of splitting responsibility with teammates who helped). Eight different Bulls were responsible for defending at least one of Gil's possessions in that game.

Own-man defense is important, but good defense is teamwork. So, in a big sense you're right -- Wall will look better defensively with good bigs behind him. The same is true of Irving, though, who also played with some sorry defensive teammates.

Wall definitely has the tools to be a first-rate defensive player. He should be a better defender than Irving over the course of their careers.

[hands11]

What Wall does next year is a big question mark until we actually see him play but I like his chances shine given how the team game together later in the year once they added Nene for McGee.

Great upside for sure. AS potential as well. And if he reaches it, he will be the best AS from the Wizards in many years. Better then Gil, AJ or CB.

But it all comes down to what I posted in the other thread. Walls maturity and mental make up/focus. He showed a huge lack of this last summer and during various points last year. Specially how he started the year. He also showed signs of the light bulb going on.

This years squad will be much better for Wall. Vets like Nene and Okafor down low completely change the dynamics of what Wall had to work with regarding talent and maturity. Even Beal will help because of his talent and personality. Plus he is another highly regarded talented young guard to help Wall share the load. Now Wall can settle in and focus on what he needs to do without feeling like he has to carry the team alone. He can better pick stops in games and establish himself a floor general. Then he can grown his game from there and show some dominance.

Kyrie is clearly the better player right now and it is easier to project what he will be. I even suggested trading Wall for the number 1 to get Kyrie based on that. He is more of a know product. Bird in the hand. Wall could end up as good or better overall but they will always be different kinds of players so it will be a tough comparison.

I think most of us agree, this is a huge year for Wall. If he can take that 3rd year leap, it will have a huge effect on the team as a whole and how many wins they get. Wall is the X factor that will make guessing the season win total a crap shoot this year.

I would guess Wall has to be feeling the best he has ever felt coming into this year given the team they know have. First year was a nightmare with the Gil thing. Second year the coach get fired and they went into the year with so many young players and no post defense or enough outside shooters. Now they have a much more balanced team and a head coach he believes in. I would imagine he is jacked to get started.

[Brenice]

I have nothing against Irving. He's a good player. I'd still take Wall for overall upside though. I think this is the year he puts it together. Irving didn't have to deal with the clowns Wall did that hindered his development. I fully expect Wall to make the all-star game this year.

Exactly. During his rookie and 2nd year, the team was blown up mid-season. Gilbert, Antawn, Caron, Haywood, and DeShawn then JaVale, Nick, and Blatche. All of those guys were playing major minutes those years. How are you to measure how effective anybody is under those circumstances.

[GhostsOfGil]

Kev thanks for the thought out response Im just not sure I'm buying into it.

Also there were a ton of variables during that Washington Chicago series. The wizards ran the princeton and Gil shared ball handling duties with Hughes. Also, Chris Duhon was the Bulls 2 guard so it made more sense for Duhon to guard Gil rather than the bigger Hughes. I understand your argument about on/off data but I cant help but see it in a more cut and dry way. Point guards tend to isolate, not many play off the ball. Most of the defensive energy exerted by the 1 is either on the PnR or on isolations. I guess the question is, when Chris Paul goes 1-8 and scores 2 points, how much of that is contributed towards Wall? With Mcgee guarding the paint and Jordan Crawford on the wing, my answer tends to lean towards: Alot.

[Nivek]

Kev thanks for the thought out response Im just not sure I'm buying into it.

Also there were a ton of variables during that Washington Chicago series. The wizards ran the princeton and Gil shared ball handling duties with Hughes. Also, Chris Duhon was the Bulls 2 guard so it made more sense for Duhon to guard Gil rather than the bigger Hughes.

Duhon wasn't matched against Arenas in that game, Hinrich was. All of those variables were accounted for -- what I posted was drawn from hand tracking every play in that series. This happens to be an example remember particularly well because I used it an article I wrote at the time. I've done the same analysis for dozens of games using different teams, players and positions and had the same findings. Buy into or don't, but that's what I found.

I understand your argument about on/off data but I cant help but see it in a more cut and dry way. Point guards tend to isolate, not many play off the ball. Most of the defensive energy exerted by the 1 is either on the PnR or on isolations. I guess the question is, when Chris Paul goes 1-8 and scores 2 points, how much of that is contributed towards Wall? With Mcgee guarding the paint and Jordan Crawford on the wing, my answer tends to lean towards: Alot.

Your thoughts here sound plausible. However, I've done a ton of work in this area, and I'm telling you from the hundreds of games I tracked and compiled and analyzed that viewing defense through man-to-man matchups is waste of time. Each player getting assigned a single opponent to defend just isn't how defense is played. There are defensive assignments, but own-man defense is the tip of the iceberg. Responsibilities run far deeper, for every player on the floor. When Chris Paul goes 1-8 in a game against Wall, then Wall assuredly deserves some of the credit for that. But defending Paul is a team effort.

As an example, back in 04-05, the counterpart data at 82games said Brendan Haywood faced 11.0 FGA per 48 minutes and that opponents had a .560 efg against him. Well, decent job limiting shots, I guess, but pretty crappy defense. My tracking project showed Haywood defending 21.0 FGA per 48 minutes with an efg of .333.

The same data said Arenas was facing 21.7 FGA per 48 minutes with an opponent efg of .500. Tracking showed Arenas defending 11.7 FGA per 48 with a defensive efg of .503.

The tracking I did showed that bigs were far "busier" defensively than guards -- that they faced more shots and more possessions. The counterpart data didn't reflect that; in fact, it indicated that guards were busier.

The counterpart data is interesting. DeanO once estimated that it might reflect half of a player's defensive contributions. Based on the tracking I did, I think that might even be a bit high, but whatever. The bottom line is that counterpart numbers are not a good way to evaluate individual defense.

[DMVleGeND]

honest question,,,,

are there any Olympic videos of John Wall playing?

please post them if you know any...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3q8u9YHAdA[/youtube]

Jumper still looks ugly (mechanically wise).

[Dat2U]

The tracking I did showed that bigs were far "busier" defensively than guards -- that they faced more shots and more possessions. The counterpart data didn't reflect that; in fact, it indicated that guards were busier.

The counterpart data is interesting. DeanO once estimated that it might reflect half of a player's defensive contributions. Based on the tracking I did, I think that might even be a bit high, but whatever. The bottom line is that counterpart numbers are not a good way to evaluate individual defense.

I always thought bigs played a far more important role defensively than perimeter players. My opinion is that you can hide a relatively poor defending guard (like Steph Curry for example) but it's much harder to hide a big that's a complete sieve (like Jamison or A. Jefferson).

[GhostsOfGil]

I understand your argument about on/off data but I cant help but see it in a more cut and dry way. Point guards tend to isolate, not many play off the ball. Most of the defensive energy exerted by the 1 is either on the PnR or on isolations. I guess the question is, when Chris Paul goes 1-8 and scores 2 points, how much of that is contributed towards Wall? With Mcgee guarding the paint and Jordan Crawford on the wing, my answer tends to lean towards: Alot.

Your thoughts here sound plausible. However, I've done a ton of work in this area, and I'm telling you from the hundreds of games I tracked and compiled and analyzed that viewing defense through man-to-man matchups is waste of time. Each player getting assigned a single opponent to defend just isn't how defense is played. There are defensive assignments, but own-man defense is the tip of the iceberg. Responsibilities run far deeper, for every player on the floor. When Chris Paul goes 1-8 in a game against Wall, then Wall assuredly deserves some of the credit for that. But defending Paul is a team effort.

As an example, back in 04-05, the counterpart data at 82games said Brendan Haywood faced 11.0 FGA per 48 minutes and that opponents had a .560 efg against him. Well, decent job limiting shots, I guess, but pretty crappy defense. My tracking project showed Haywood defending 21.0 FGA per 48 minutes with an efg of .333.

The same data said Arenas was facing 21.7 FGA per 48 minutes with an opponent efg of .500. Tracking showed Arenas defending 11.7 FGA per 48 with a defensive efg of .503.

The tracking I did showed that bigs were far "busier" defensively than guards -- that they faced more shots and more possessions. The counterpart data didn't reflect that; in fact, it indicated that guards were busier.

The counterpart data is interesting. DeanO once estimated that it might reflect half of a player's defensive contributions. Based on the tracking I did, I think that might even be a bit high, but whatever. The bottom line is that counterpart numbers are not a good way to evaluate individual defense.

All good stuff here. Defense is a tricky skill to measure statistically but your posts definitely intrigue me.

[GhostsOfGil]

Good interview with Wall and Jim Rome. Looks like Wall is doing the right things and training hard:

http://www.cbssports.com/video/player/p ... basketball

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I am the most critical guy on this board of John Wall. Watching the interview, GoG, I am pleased that he is a hard worker and a good young man. Despite my criticism, I think John is a good basketball player who this season needs to play a physical brand of basketball. He looks bigger and stronger, which can only help his game.

What I hope to see is Wall turn into a meaner, more physical player. He needs to use his forearms and to be in less of a hurry to avoid contact, but in more willing to initiate contact. If he can master a step back and a floater, and he can be comfortable shooting the three with good form, he will be fine. His handle might stand to be a bit tighter for him to move even better laterally. Straight line speed he's pretty much in a class by himself, with only Westbrook and Rose close. Laterally, John can improve. I think his workouts and this summer should improve him.

However, if he's still in a rush and lacking confidence, form, and rhythm in his jumper; John won't become great.

I really want to see him succeed, despite my "hate".