2012 NBA Draft

[The Consiglieri]

I know but im just not accepting the reality that for the umpteenth time, if we were 3, we'd fall to 6, of course, as per usual. I just can't be that cynical and negative in my expectations anymore. But of course you're right on the facts.

[Knighthonor]

"Letting his mind continue to mature?"

I defended McGee at the start of the year, but his last set of games have been a putrid, inexcusable pool of poo. He has shown almost no consistent improvement from the BBIQ standpoint in four years.

He could still turn the corner, mature, get serious and become a great player. The chances of that happening have been dipping hard though, and I think we're at the point where the odds are stacked against him and selling high is probably better for the team.

And considering Javale's value is probably at it's lowest right now, I'd expect Ernie Grunfeld to trade him at any moment. We all know how Ernie is great at finding that perfect time when desperation meets panic so we can get pennies on the dollar for our second best trade asset.

Well maybe at least we can have World Peace in DC.

Why people disliking McGee? He been the most entertaining this season and last season.

[Knighthonor]

I have a question for those that follow drafts.

How do you usually know a Superstar like Wade, Kobe, Lebron, npin the draft from non superstars? Just curious, but is there something that you pick up on?

[Ruzious]

Has anyone here watched much of Meyers Leonard? I know he has ideal size and is a hell of an athlete. I am not very up on him as a prospect however. Center is probably a bigger need for us than we are acknowledging.

(1)Can Leonard shoot?
(2)How is he defensively?

Yeah, I've watched 3 Illini games, and physicially and skill-wise Leonard is the total package - though he's a bit mechanical. He's got a very good spot-up jumper. I think the longest I've seen him take was an 18 foot corner jumper over Sullinger. He was very nice shooting touch around the basket. Defensively, while he could use a little more leg strength, but he's fundamentally strong and has near perfect size.

Having said all that, I wouldn't draft him, and I don't have a good explanation. I just a bad vibe about how strong his motor is. Can he sustain effort consistently? Is he mentally tough? Honestly, part of that is because he looks like a pretty boy to me - the kind of kid I wouldn't trust when push comes to shove. And part of it is that he did nothing last season. Maybe that's the coach's fault, but if you have all that talent and couldn't get on the court - something's wrong.

[REDardWIZskin]

Has anyone here watched much of Meyers Leonard? I know he has ideal size and is a hell of an athlete. I am not very up on him as a prospect however. Center is probably a bigger need for us than we are acknowledging.

(1)Can Leonard shoot?
(2)How is he defensively?

He's a presence in the middle and he has good hands on offense. Don't think Illinois coach wants his most physically imposing players shooting, so the Jury is still out on that. He's (19?) and already 7'1. But he has a tendency to coast at times during the games and is not as mature as some of the other prospects we've been discussing. I question his Bball IQ. His coach said in an interview that he loses focus sometimes and he needs to stop focusing on getting drafted so much and worry about contributing to his full potential at the college level. That's not something you like to here from a coach. And IMO is really the only reason he's not projected top 8. Has has as much upside as anyone not named Anthony Davis. That being said I'd still pick him if we went small early (Barnes) and found another pick in the teens somehow, assuming BOTH Zeller's are off the board. Were gonna need some more length if we hope to get rid of Blatche.

[The Consiglieri]

Has anyone here watched much of Meyers Leonard? I know he has ideal size and is a hell of an athlete. I am not very up on him as a prospect however. Center is probably a bigger need for us than we are acknowledging.

(1)Can Leonard shoot?
(2)How is he defensively?

Yeah, I've watched 3 Illini games, and physicially and skill-wise Leonard is the total package - though he's a bit mechanical. He's got a very good spot-up jumper. I think the longest I've seen him take was an 18 foot corner jumper over Sullinger. He was very nice shooting touch around the basket. Defensively, while he could use a little more leg strength, but he's fundamentally strong and has near perfect size.

Having said all that, I wouldn't draft him, and I don't have a good explanation. I just a bad vibe about how strong his motor is. Can he sustain effort consistently? Is he mentally tough? Honestly, part of that is because he looks like a pretty boy to me - the kind of kid I wouldn't trust when push comes to shove. And part of it is that he did nothing last season. Maybe that's the coach's fault, but if you have all that talent and couldn't get on the court - something's wrong.

That's exactly what Ford's right up says as well, mental and physical toughness are the question marks on him. Everything else is plus.

[fishercob]

DX with a new write-up on Anthony Davis. There's a ton to like about the kid, but let's not get ourselves carried away and believe he's anywhere close to a complete player yet.

With that said, Davis is still a fairly raw prospect in many facets offensively, giving him a considerable amount of room for growth as he continues to develop. If an opposing defense can force him to take a jump-shot, put the ball on the floor, or attempt to score in a post up situation, they have a more than three times better chance of stopping him than if he simply catches the ball in the paint in position to finish.

That doesn't jive very well with the "he grew 8 inches in one year and used to be a point guard!" part of his narrative you often hear on national TV broadcasts, but the truth is he rarely dribbles or takes a shot outside five feet, and isn't overly successful at the moment when he does.

Davis attempts just over one jump shot per game on average, but has only made 27% of his attempts. His shooting mechanics are not bad, and the fact that he converts 71% of his free throws leaves room for optimism, but this is a part of his game he'll need to continue working on in time.

Due to his skinny frame, Davis also isn't a very effective post-up threat at this stage. He uses about one possession per game working with his back to the basket, but only scores or gets fouled around 25% of the time in these situations. As he continues to fill out physically and adds bulk to his upper and lower body, Davis will likely have more success establishing position in the paint. While he doesn't lack for toughness, he simply doesn't have the strength to avoid being pushed around by older players. Considering how many other scoring options exist on this incredibly talented Kentucky team, it makes sense that they don't force the issue here.

One area where Davis will need to improve in the NBA is in one on one situations in the post. He lacks the lower body strength to contain stronger big men from establishing deep post position on him, at times allowing them to catch the ball deep in the paint and back him down.

[llcc25]

DX with a new write-up on Anthony Davis. There's a ton to like about the kid, but let's not get ourselves carried away and believe he's anywhere close to a complete player yet.

With that said, Davis is still a fairly raw prospect in many facets offensively, giving him a considerable amount of room for growth as he continues to develop. If an opposing defense can force him to take a jump-shot, put the ball on the floor, or attempt to score in a post up situation, they have a more than three times better chance of stopping him than if he simply catches the ball in the paint in position to finish.

That doesn't jive very well with the "he grew 8 inches in one year and used to be a point guard!" part of his narrative you often hear on national TV broadcasts, but the truth is he rarely dribbles or takes a shot outside five feet, and isn't overly successful at the moment when he does.

Due to his skinny frame, Davis also isn't a very effective post-up threat at this stage. He uses about one possession per game working with his back to the basket, but only scores or gets fouled around 25% of the time in these situations. As he continues to fill out physically and adds bulk to his upper and lower body, Davis will likely have more success establishing position in the paint. While he doesn't lack for toughness, he simply doesn't have the strength to avoid being pushed around by older players. Considering how many other scoring options exist on this incredibly talented Kentucky team, it makes sense that they don't force the issue here.

One area where Davis will need to improve in the NBA is in one on one situations in the post. He lacks the lower body strength to contain stronger big men from establishing deep post position on him, at times allowing them to catch the ball deep in the paint and back him down.

this analysis with what I've already seen myself makes me conmfortable in saying that he appears to be the second coming of Camby with a bit more upside. IMO, he has potential to be perennial all-star but i don't see him being a superstar franchise talent.

[dobrojim]

so the world actually won't end if we don't get #1?

phew, I was worried maybe the end-timers were right.

I'm starting to re-warm on Barnes. Maybe he's more than CC 2.0.

FYI to anyone who doesn't already know - the most you can fall
in the lotto is 3 places

[Dat2U]

DX with a new write-up on Anthony Davis. There's a ton to like about the kid, but let's not get ourselves carried away and believe he's anywhere close to a complete player yet.

With that said, Davis is still a fairly raw prospect in many facets offensively, giving him a considerable amount of room for growth as he continues to develop. If an opposing defense can force him to take a jump-shot, put the ball on the floor, or attempt to score in a post up situation, they have a more than three times better chance of stopping him than if he simply catches the ball in the paint in position to finish.

That doesn't jive very well with the "he grew 8 inches in one year and used to be a point guard!" part of his narrative you often hear on national TV broadcasts, but the truth is he rarely dribbles or takes a shot outside five feet, and isn't overly successful at the moment when he does.

Davis attempts just over one jump shot per game on average, but has only made 27% of his attempts. His shooting mechanics are not bad, and the fact that he converts 71% of his free throws leaves room for optimism, but this is a part of his game he'll need to continue working on in time.

Due to his skinny frame, Davis also isn't a very effective post-up threat at this stage. He uses about one possession per game working with his back to the basket, but only scores or gets fouled around 25% of the time in these situations. As he continues to fill out physically and adds bulk to his upper and lower body, Davis will likely have more success establishing position in the paint. While he doesn't lack for toughness, he simply doesn't have the strength to avoid being pushed around by older players. Considering how many other scoring options exist on this incredibly talented Kentucky team, it makes sense that they don't force the issue here.

One area where Davis will need to improve in the NBA is in one on one situations in the post. He lacks the lower body strength to contain stronger big men from establishing deep post position on him, at times allowing them to catch the ball deep in the paint and back him down.

Well there's no perfect prospect. Everyone comes in the league with flaws. LeBron had flaws. Wade had flaws. Duncan had flaws (people questioned his intensity and athleticism).

And DX is not the gospel. It's one person's opinion. Certainly I respect the opinion, but it doesn't trump what I've seen with my own eyes.

My own eyes tells me that Davis is the best big man prospect I've seen in college since Duncan. And he's the best defensive big I've seen period.

For being completely raw offensively he's got a TS% of 67%. And his PER leads the nation at 35.8. So imagine what he'd be with an offensive game?

I don't by the Camby comparison either. I don't think Camby is in Davis' league as a prospect. The only thing they have in common is being tall & thin. Davis is better at every facet of the game with the exception of rebounding.

[llcc25]

[/quote][/quote]

Well there's no perfect prospect. Everyone comes in the league with flaws. LeBron had flaws. Wade had flaws. Duncan had flaws (people questioned his intensity and athleticism).

And DX is not the gospel. It's one person's opinion. Certainly I respect the opinion, but it doesn't trump what I've seen with my own eyes.

My own eyes tells me that Davis is the best big man prospect I've seen in college since Duncan. And he's the best defensive big I've seen period.

For being completely raw offensively he's got a TS% of 67%. And his PER leads the nation at 35.8. So imagine what he'd be with an offensive game?

I don't by the Camby comparison either. I don't think Camby is in Davis' league as a prospect. The only thing they have in common is being tall & thin. Davis is better at every facet of the game with the exception of rebounding.[/quote]

Well, Camby is the comparison that Calipari and his former UMASS assistant used when assessing Davis earlier this year. Calipari basically said Davis is like Camby but with a head start. And I saw Camby during his UMASS days and I do see that being the best comparison to Davis right now. He clearly has more upside but how much more? He still has to develop an NBA body yet and NBA offensive game which will take couple of years at least. Again, I still see him having the potential to be an perennial all star but I don't see him being the franchise talent that some of you see.

[fishercob]

Well there's no perfect prospect. Everyone comes in the league with flaws. LeBron had flaws. Wade had flaws. Duncan had flaws (people questioned his intensity and athleticism).

No doubt. My question isn't whether Davis is the best prospect in the draft, though. My question is how's he going to perform when he's in the league. Will other teams be able to exploit his weaknesses? How long will it take him to reach his potential, etc.

And DX is not the gospel. It's one person's opinion. Certainly I respect the opinion, but it doesn't trump what I've seen with my own eyes.

It's obviously not gospel; there's no such thing. But I don't think it's just an opinion either -- or to the extent that a scouting report in Davis is an opinion, it's heavily researched.

My own eyes tells me that Davis is the best big man prospect I've seen in college since Duncan. And he's the best defensive big I've seen period.

Davis is very impressive athletically, defensively, energetically. I'm 35 and I'd say Shaq, Webber, Duncan, Ewing were significantly better prospects when they came out based on their offensive skill sets. Ewing, Oden, and Zo were better defensive bigs because of their strength. That said, when I look back at those last two sentences, he's in good company.

For being completely raw offensively he's got a TS% of 67%. And his PER leads the nation at 35.8. So imagine what he'd be with an offensive game?

I don't want to imagine though. I want to see it. Givony points out "Offensively, Davis is not an incredibly prolific scorer at this stage, only ranking 52nd in points per-40 minutes pace adjusted out of the 84 NCAA players currently in our top 100 prospects." I'm not saying that to knock the kid. It's just frustrating that top picks aren't more ready to play. Cousins supposedly put up other-worldly, once in a generation advanced stats at UK too, and I know how you feel about him. Here's the thing about thin big men: to be effective -- let alone superior -- offensively, they either need to be highly skilled (Gasol) or great shooters (KG). They can't get and keep deep enough position in the post, so they need great moves or a money J to score a lot. Davis has neither today, right? Not to say that he won't or can't be. But there's a risk factor there for sure.

I don't by the Camby comparison either. I don't think Camby is in Davis' league as a prospect. The only thing they have in common is being tall & thin. Davis is better at every facet of the game with the exception of rebounding.

Rebounding is critically important for a would-be-dominant big man, though. If I'm betting big on Davis, I want to be sure he's going to be great on the glass.

DX goes in to Davis's strengths too. They're considerable. But I need more convincing that he;s going to be an elite NBA player.

[Severn Hoos]

The Hornets have their own pick, plus the Timberwolves' pick. Right now, they're slotted #2 and #12. Suppose the Wiz get #2, and the Hornets get screwed and end up #4 (or #5?). Would you trade the #2 for the 4 & 12? I certainly would, but wonder if they'd go for it. Could we add something to the deal to make it worthwhile? Take Okafor off their hands? I just really would like to find a way to get another mid-1st this year. (But then, I say that every year...)

[nate33]

The Hornets have their own pick, plus the Timberwolves' pick. Right now, they're slotted #2 and #12. Suppose the Wiz get #2, and the Hornets get screwed and end up #4 (or #5?). Would you trade the #2 for the 4 & 12? I certainly would, but wonder if they'd go for it. Could we add something to the deal to make it worthwhile? Take Okafor off their hands? I just really would like to find a way to get another mid-1st this year. (But then, I say that every year...)

I think that's a deal that both teams would like, particularly if Drummond remains high on everyone's draft board.

[Mizerooskie]

I have a question for those that follow drafts.

How do you usually know a Superstar like Wade, Kobe, Lebron, npin the draft from non superstars? Just curious, but is there something that you pick up on?

Nobody really expected Wade or Kobe to be the superstars that they are.

To me, the biggest factor in those guys becoming superstars are their mentalities. They're alpha dogs with a fire in their belly that are driven to compete. They've also got phenomenal work ethic.

As far as basketball skills, the ability to consistently create their own shot would be the #1 skill (IMO) for a potential superstar.

[Mizerooskie]

I think Givony's analysis of Davis's offensive game is flawed somewhat in that he only mentions the supporting cast in passing.

The UK roster is a HUGE factor in the lack of point production. He plays with what? 5-6 potential first rounders?

He's 5th on the team in FGA/G. So a guy that's the 5th scoring option is leading a team full of NBA talent in scoring. I don't know where to find the stats, but I'd bet his usage rate is relatively low.

Sure, he's not super polished a year out of high school, but how many lottery prospect big men are? Sullinger is the only one that comes immediately to mind.

His biggest weakness is the most easily fixable: strength.

[pancakes3]

the problem is that the 2nd biggest weakness: polish, is not easily fixable. i think he'll have a brighter future than camby, even a healthy camby. i'm not holding my breath for garnett-esque impact though.

[BanndNDC]

I have a question for those that follow drafts.

How do you usually know a Superstar like Wade, Kobe, Lebron, npin the draft from non superstars? Just curious, but is there something that you pick up on?

Nobody really expected Wade or Kobe to be the superstars that they are.

To me, the biggest factor in those guys becoming superstars are their mentalities. They're alpha dogs with a fire in their belly that are driven to compete. They've also got phenomenal work ethic.

As far as basketball skills, the ability to consistently create their own shot would be the #1 skill (IMO) for a potential superstar.

Not necessarily true. I did expect Wade to be a star (although I also thought Tony Allen would be). There was something in the way they both played in the NCAA tournament (each of them single handedly dominated a very tough defensively Pitt team on both ends of the court).

I'd say the two biggest determiners of superstar potential is court vision/awareness and drive/ability to play faster mentally then everyone else. Speed of thought (such that it seems intuitive), awareness of what's going on around and determination to constantly fight are what separate great from good players. sprinkle in the obvious athleticism and size measurements along with an ability to raise their game to the level of opposition and you have a formula. Of course identifying elite awareness, decision making and determination is a guessing game and not a simple task by any means. one can easily be misled via a small sample size (like I was with tony allen), over or undervalueing their supporting cast or seduced by your desire to "call it".

[fishercob]

I think Givony's analysis of Davis's offensive game is flawed somewhat in that he only mentions the supporting cast in passing.

The UK roster is a HUGE factor in the lack of point production. He plays with what? 5-6 potential first rounders?

He's 5th on the team in FGA/G. So a guy that's the 5th scoring option is leading a team full of NBA talent in scoring. I don't know where to find the stats, but I'd bet his usage rate is relatively low.

Sure, he's not super polished a year out of high school, but how many lottery prospect big men are? Sullinger is the only one that comes immediately to mind.

His biggest weakness is the most easily fixable: strength.

I dunno if I buy that, Miz. The cream rises, right? Webber played with 2 lotto picks in Jalen and Juwan and scored a ton of points. Elton Brand led a Duke team with Battier, Langdon, Maggette, Will Avery and Carawell.

Maybe Davis doesn't shoulder more of the offensive load because he can't yet.

[7-Day Dray]

I still think the way Calipari is using him is holding Davis' offensive development back. I think Davis will show more offensively once he gets into the NBA. He still has solid handles, even though he grew 8 in., and his shooting stroke looks pretty good. And he seems pretty coordinated, so I think he'll be able to develop a decent arsenal of post moves.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OSxB2HZAKE[/youtube]