Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[montestewart]

As a fan, I'd rather watch my team win 24 games with young up-and-coming players, than win 32 games with over-the-hill vets.

You are far from alone in this sentiment. Management needs to balance the teams current outlook with its long term outlook, sacrificing long term interests when legitimate contention is currently within reach, sacrificing current wins in favor of player and roster development when contention is out of reach. Not giving EG a pass or anything, but Leonsis sort of created this situation where management seemed to be given the green light to save hides by pursuing wins in the short term, even though legitimate contention was likely out of reach.

[Severn Hoos]

It feels like anything short of pitchforks and torches is seen as an endorsement of EG (hi Lyrical!), so I will try to offer a slightly different perspective without in any way endorsing EG, Ted, or the overall moves they have made.

The one thing that I think gets lost in the handwringing over the moves that have been made (especially the Okariza-Gortat daily double) is the positive impact it has had on the team culture and the younger players, especially Wall. The team was sinking, and I think Wall was being dragged down with the rest of the franchise. He hadn't developed as was expected for a #1 overall pick, and he was clearly having confidence/attitude problems. I always think of that wave he made to JaVale when he ran downcourt after the offensive rebound as emblematic of the "C'mon man!" feeling John was going through.

Of course, there's no way to ever prove it, but I suspect that if the team had "stayed the course" Wall may have ended up as a draft disappointment, at least until he got free of DC and found another team who ran things in a professional manner.

Instead, the team brought in veterans who know how to play the game the right way. First, Nene - who was a good influence, but appears to be less vocal as a leader. Still, that helped to show how a big man can be effective by using his head more than his athleticism. Then the Okariza trade brought in Ariza (originally an afterthought, it would appear) and Okafor. Okafor turned out to be the more vocal leader that John needed, and much has been made of the way he got into John's face and challenged him with some "tough love." Was that the difference? Who knows, but Wall's play took off shortly after that, and has stayed at a very high level since.

Then Okafor gets hurt and the team looks to be in dire straits. Already paper thin up front, this injury could set them back quite a lot. So they make a trade to bring in a veteran C in Gortat. Yet another influx of professionalism, plus the chance to help Wall really learn the pick-and-roll with someone other than KSera.

What does it all bring? Well, for one - Wall is now playing at a level that is clearly All-Star worthy. I for one don't see how that would have been possible without at least the Okariza trade, and probably not as advanced without Gortat here.

Ariza has gone from an afterthought to a very valuable member of the team - and possibly a very valuable trading chip. Plus, he and Wall seem to have a very beneficial symbiotic relationship on the court, where each makes the other better.

The team is in solid playoff position, and well situated to avoid Indy or Miami in the first round with a good chance to advance. Just think what that experience could do for the learning curve of Wall, Beal, and the others who may stick around.

And most of all, they are having fun and enjoy being teammates. We can put that down all we want, but those guys aren't robots, and it's not a rotisserie league. It matters that they are united as teammates (look at that picture from the team plane), and that the attitude is contagiously positive.

Back when they hit .500 for the first time, remember John & the rest of the starters on the bench laughing and enjoying a blowout? That's what good NBA teams look like. See this video from the 2:40 mark, how upbeat he seems in the post-game interview:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7v_P377DOk[/youtube]

I just don't see that happening without the influx of veterans - whom I wouldn't call over-the-hill, by the way. They may decline over time, but the next 2-3 years should still be pretty productive.

So in the end, I see a lot of positive, but what is the negative? For that, I think you have to look at opportunity cost. What was the opportunity cost here?

I see two main things - the FA window last summer (2012), and the 2014 1st round pick*.

Thinking back to the 2012 FA summer, the two biggest names were Ryan Anderson and Ersan Ilyasova. Of course, the first thing that has to happen is the FA has to want to come here. There's no guarantee that either of those guys would have agreed to come here, but let's say they would have. Ilyasova was unrestricted, so he could have been signed outright. I've been as much of an Ersan fan as any on this board, but does anyone think that missing out on giving Ersan $8M per for his current production was a huge loss? (I'd still take him, BTW - I think he'll turn it around, just pointing out that the grass isn't always greener.)

Then you've got Anderson. Not only would he have to agree to a deal, but the Magic would have to agree to trade him to the Wiz - no guarantee, given they are in the same division. And, they'd have had to add something of value to send back to Orlando. In the deal with the Pelicans, they got Ayon. it may not sound like much, but consider - what would the Wiz have had to offer to get similar value? Probably Booker at least, although I don't think anyone not named Wall or Beal would have interested the magic as much as Ayon.

So it would have been a thread-the-needle situation to get Anderson, and if not - maybe Ilyasova?

As to next year's pick, I don't think there was any chance the Wiz would ave been bad enough to really get in on the top of the Lottery. And if you're not top 5, how valuable is that pick really, anyway?

Quick - without looking it up, who was the #6 pick in the 2003 NBA Draft, often considered one of, if not the best, of all time?

I'm sure you all could name LeBron, Darko (oops), Melo, Bosh, and Wade.

And the LA Clippers - with the 5th worst record - picked Chris Kaman at #6.

More often that not, that's what happens when you try and tank....

So they passed on a chance to get Ilyandersova and a late lottery pick this year. And instead have a true franchise PG, some solid veterans, a professional atmosphere, and two other high picks who can learn the right way to play instead of playing with a bunch of boneheads.

[ * I know you can make the case that they could have had Harden. I didn't include that because a) it was a reported offer - so we don't really know in absolute terms what was or was not offered, and b) I still think Beal could end up being more valuable - for this team - than Harden, given his age, his defense, and his ability to play off of the ball. Overall, harden is a better player and probably always will be, but Beal can come pretty close, I think.]

Now - one thing before anyone gets the wrong idea - the reason the team was such an utter mess is because of the decisions EG made. Giving him "credit" for these deals is like congratualting the firefighter who set the blaze, just so he could put it out. Overall, the record speaks for itself, and it is abysmal. I'd have no problem at all if EG was relieved of his duties, and do agree he has deserved that fate.

But whether it was luck, desperation, or skill, I think the series of moves since the Nene trade have been rather positive overall for the franchise.

[LyricalRico]

Sev, coming strong to start 2014! I love it!



Also don't forget bringing in Webster. Everyone originally hated his new contract, but he's also played a role in making this a professional organization and giving Wall a smart, tough teammate to play off of.

And I agree with you that trading for Gortat wasn't in the original plan, but I think they were right to do what it took to stay on pace for the playoffs this year so Wall/Beal can get more experience. (Yes, the East turned out to be bad enough that we might have made it without Gortat, but nobody could have predicted things like the Rose/Horford injuries and the complete implosions of the Knicks/Nets.)

Here's a thought - if we had the same record with a healthy Okafor and still had our pick for next year (which, again, was Ernie's original plan), I think the mood around here would be much more positive.

[nate33]

SevernHoos, I think you can make that argument with respect to the Okariza acquisition. I would disagree. I think Ryan Anderson plus a stopgap amnestied big like Elton Brand or Brendan Haywood to go with Nene would have been a good enough professionalism infusion. But your argument isn't without merit.

I think it's a reach to extend that argument to the Gortat acquisition. Wall already turned the corner last year. He didn't need Gortat to learn anything new about how to play in the NBA. It would have been much better to acquire DeJuan Blair instead of Harrington, and then keep our 1st round pick. The Gortat trade was clearly a trade to save EG's ass. It had nothing to do with developing Wall.

Also, let's not forget how lucky EG was to land the top 3 pick in the lottery despite finishing 8th. The Okariza acquisition should have really cost us a lot of long term talent, but we were saved by the lotto balls.

[hands11]

SevernHoos, I think you can make that argument with respect to the Okariza acquisition. I would disagree. I think Ryan Anderson plus a stopgap amnestied big like Elton Brand or Brendan Haywood to go with Nene would have been a good enough professionalism infusion. But your argument isn't without merit.

I think it's a reach to extend that argument to the Gortat acquisition. Wall already turned the corner last year. He didn't need Gortat to learn anything new about how to play in the NBA. It would have been much better to acquire DeJuan Blair instead of Harrington, and then keep our 1st round pick. The Gortat trade was clearly a trade to save EG's ass. It had nothing to do with developing Wall.

Also, let's not forget how lucky EG was to land the top 3 pick in the lottery despite finishing 8th. The Okariza acquisition should have really cost us a lot of long term talent, but we were saved by the lotto balls.

8-12 would have still got us a nice player. And cheaper.

And no Gortat, no PnR like you are seeing now. Wall didn't have that last year. Wall was terrible as using screens before. Wall is a more complete PG since they added Gortat. He does more then just skip pass now.

It may have been an inefficient road. Clearly some wasted assets. But this is Walls 4th year and one was a strike year, no summer ball. Shortened season. AS in year 4 isn't bad.

[DCZards]

Sev does a goo job of laying out the argument that many of the supporters of the Okafor/Ariza trade, like myself, made at the time of the trade--and continue to make. We can argue ad infinitum as to how the trade will impact the Zards ability to build a championship contender in the future, but at this point it's clear that the trade is benefiting both the short -term bottom line (winning and learning to play as a unit) as well as the development/confidence of the Zards two most valuable properties--John Wall and Bradley Beal. And that's a good thing.

Might the signing of a Ryan Anderson during the summer of 2012 have helped the Zards even more? Possibly. But there is no guarantee that Anderson would have ended up with the Zards even if they had not traded for Okafor and Ariza. Anderson in a Zards uni may have turned out to be little more than wishful thinking.

[TGW]

The argument can be made for both sides, but ultimately it comes down to winning, and we can say with certainty that they haven't been winning post-Okariza trade.

They are 43-68 since the trade. I don't think it's clear at all that the trade benefitted the Wizards at all except more ping pong balls. As of right now, they are under .500—that's not a "winning" record so how can one come to the conclusion that they're winning? I understand some of you all want to put a positive spin on EVERYTHING, but the OKariza trade isn't a success. It's just a move that shouldn't be considered as being terrible—rearranging deck chairs on the titanic to be metaphorical.

And honestly I don't think Beal and Wall are developing that great a rapport with each other on the court. For a backcourt that some were touting as the best in the East, they have been underwhelming together. I'n not saying the Okariza trade is having a negative effect on them together, but it hasn't helped either.

[DCZards]

The team has been winning with Booker in the starting lineup.

Just saying.

You seem to like contradicting yourself. Or is Booker the only reason they're winning? Maybe they should just bench Ariza and Gortat since you seem to think the Zards would win just as many games without them.

[hands11]

The argument can be made for both sides, but ultimately it comes down to winning, and we can say with certainty that they haven't been winning post-Okariza trade.

They are 43-68 since the trade. I don't think it's clear at all that the trade benefitted the Wizards at all except more ping pong balls. As of right now, they are under .500—that's not a "winning" record so how can one come to the conclusion that they're winning? I understand some of you all want to put a positive spin on EVERYTHING, but the OKariza trade isn't a success. It's just a move that shouldn't be considered as being terrible—rearranging deck chairs on the titanic to be metaphorical.

And honestly I don't think Beal and Wall are developing that great a rapport with each other on the court. For a backcourt that some were touting as the best in the East, they have been underwhelming together. I'n not saying the Okariza trade is having a negative effect on them together, but it hasn't helped either.

With spin like that, you need to go into politics.

Anyway. Nice article on the Wizards.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2014/1/2/ ... file-stats

washington-wizards-team-profile-stats

This highlights the reason I wouldn't pay Gortat to much.

Rim protection is a problem: The downside of Gortat: he's not very good at a center's most important skill: Rim protection. The Wizards are 22nd in the league at opponent's shooting percentage in the restricted area, and Gortat himself surrenders 10 shots a game at the rim when he's in, per SportVU data. Last year, with Emeka Okafor anchoring the middle, the Wizards were 14th in the league at opponent's shooting percentage in the restricted area.

[TGW]

The team has been winning with Booker in the starting lineup.

Just saying.

You seem to like contradicting yourself. Or is Booker the only reason they're winning? Maybe they should just bench Ariza and Gortat since you seem to think the Zards would win just as many games without them.

Where did I contradict myself exactly? I said the team has been winning with Booker in the starting lineup. That is, needless to say a tiny sample size, and it was in defense of Booker. There's not 111 games worth of data to suggest that Booker is the link to winning games. There is 111 games worth of data to suggest that Okariza trade did nothing to help the team.

And for someone who bitches about taking posts out of context and people editing posts, you sure did EXACTLY the same thing right there. Now who's the hypocrite?

[leswizards]

I am fully on board with firing EG, but the ironic thing is the Wizards are not that far from where I want them to be.

Hypothetically, assume that by the trade deadline, Porter, Beal and Wall have all grown to the point where they are capable starters and it is easy to envision them being the big 3 of the future. Booker continues to develop as a poor man's Paul Milsap. Because the east is so weak, the Wizards are firmly entrenched in a playoff spot, and it is possible to trade Gortat and Ariza without effecting the Wizards ability to make the playoffs. In return the Wizards have to take back about $20 million in non productive contracts that extend past this season, but they get a young C and a young PF on cheap contracts that while not as productive as Gortat and Ariza are still capable backups and have the potential to develop into players that are as productive as Gortat and Ariza. Additionally, maybe the Wizards are also able to get a late first round pick to replace the one they gave up to get Gortat.

In this hypothetical, the Wizards are still going to make the playoffs, still have a good shot to get to the second round in the East since it is so weak, and they have strengthened their future while shedding significant salary obligations in the long term (once you get past next season). In this scenario, the Wizards would have capable players for 48 mpg at every position but PG, and they would have the ability to address that problem in the off season with the first round pick that they can hopefully pick up, and by bringing Satoransky over. Additionally, they would have upside at every position.

The problem is that I just don't see where EG has ever shown the long term strategic thinking that this kind of move would require.

[dckingsfan]

I am not an EG fan - that goes before this negative post.

To date, EG hasn't been the best of drafters. Other than Wall/Beal (Porter to be determined) he hasn't shown the ability to draft well. Anything past a top 5 seems like an automatic miss. He seems to not be able to judge talent/mental toughness.

And this year's FA crop of Harrington/Maynor group evens out the benefits of bringing in other FAs (Webster).

He seems very capable of gathering a .500 team and very incapable of garnering a .600 team. He will need a very healthy dose of luck to get us there - I personally don't believe his skill will get us there.

I rate him as a bottom 1/3 GM. Kind of like our record over his tenure.

But Severn Hoos makes a very valid point - bringing in vets that have a professional attitude has some very nice intagibles. And he has had some other good moves as well. He should get full credit for those moves.

But EG "set the blaze" with Arenas, McGee, NY, Blatche and Crawford.

My guess is it was Ted who came back with the no nucklehead mandate... but that is just a guess.

It seems that he makes at least one bad move for every good move. I will say, that he is pretty good at cleaning up his messes. Still, if I had a say, he would be gone.

[nate33]

I am fully on board with firing EG, but the ironic thing is the Wizards are not that far from where I want them to be.

Hypothetically, assume that by the trade deadline, Porter, Beal and Wall have all grown to the point where they are capable starters and it is easy to envision them being the big 3 of the future. Booker continues to develop as a poor man's Paul Milsap. Because the east is so weak, the Wizards are firmly entrenched in a playoff spot, and it is possible to trade Gortat and Ariza without effecting the Wizards ability to make the playoffs.

Settle down there. Booker is nowhere near a poor man's Millsap. Millsap is a passable first option scorer, or at least a 2nd option. Booker is a mere garbage man on offense. Booker is more like a poor man's Faried. He's a decent NBA role player, but not a building block.

[leswizards]

Settle down there. Booker is nowhere near a poor man's Millsap. Millsap is a passable first option scorer, or at least a 2nd option. Booker is a mere garbage man on offense. Booker is more like a poor man's Faried. He's a decent NBA role player, but not a building block.

Meh. We are talking about the 5th best starter. For the year, he has a per of 16.4, a ORtg of 114, a DRtg of 104, and a WS/48 of .138. As a starter he is averaging ~28 mpg, ~9 ppg and rpg. I am perfectly content with him being a building block cheap option as the 5th best starter regardless of whatever kind of poor man you consider him. I think the Wizards future hinges more on Porter and Beal breaking out with Wall continuing to develop.

[Dat2U]

Sev does a goo job of laying out the argument that many of the supporters of the Okafor/Ariza trade, like myself, made at the time of the trade--and continue to make. We can argue ad infinitum as to how the trade will impact the Zards ability to build a championship contender in the future, but at this point it's clear that the trade is benefiting both the short -term bottom line (winning and learning to play as a unit) as well as the development/confidence of the Zards two most valuable properties--John Wall and Bradley Beal. And that's a good thing.

Might the signing of a Ryan Anderson during the summer of 2012 have helped the Zards even more? Possibly. But there is no guarantee that Anderson would have ended up with the Zards even if they had not traded for Okafor and Ariza. Anderson in a Zards uni may have turned out to be little more than wishful thinking.

Bottom line is 43-68. Obviously what's acceptable to you wouldn't be acceptable to many.

If you made a poll the day the Okaforiza trade was made and stated the Wizards record would be 43-68 and we'd have to cough up a 1st round pick to replace Okafor with another starting C to get to that record, I wonder how many people would be so accepting of the Okaforiza deal then?

So you and others can continue to move the goalposts as close as possible, hoping that an inept front office can somehow not manage to f*ck up this wonderful opportunity to play .500 ball during a historically bad year in the East and scoop up a top 4 seed.

[Severn Hoos]

SevernHoos, I think you can make that argument with respect to the Okariza acquisition. I would disagree. I think Ryan Anderson plus a stopgap amnestied big like Elton Brand or Brendan Haywood to go with Nene would have been a good enough professionalism infusion. But your argument isn't without merit.

I think it's a reach to extend that argument to the Gortat acquisition. Wall already turned the corner last year. He didn't need Gortat to learn anything new about how to play in the NBA. It would have been much better to acquire DeJuan Blair instead of Harrington, and then keep our 1st round pick. The Gortat trade was clearly a trade to save EG's ass. It had nothing to do with developing Wall.

Also, let's not forget how lucky EG was to land the top 3 pick in the lottery despite finishing 8th. The Okariza acquisition should have really cost us a lot of long term talent, but we were saved by the lotto balls.

nate, I think you've made two assumptions in there that the rest of the post hangs on. The first is that we would have definitely been able to acquire Anderson. I don't think that's certain - in fact, I would probably put it at less than 50/50, if we could go back and redo history. After all, Anderson isn't dumb (he went to Cal!) - he made his name playing next to an overall #1 pick, elite big man in Howard. By going to New Orleans, he's teaming up with an overall #1 pick who looks to be the next elite big man. We'd have had a 30+ year old big man who doesn't want to play center and is injured a lot. [Yes, I realize that NO wouldn't have necessarily been a viable option without the Okariza deal, but it's likely they would have found someone else to do the deal, even if they had to sweeten the pot when dealing with a more competent GM.]

So convincing Anderson to sign with the Wiz - AND convincing the Magic to cooperate in a S&T - was no sure thing. Which might have left us looking at Ilyasova, as I mentioned in the post above.

The other assumption is that we knew Wall had really "turned the corner" last Spring. Sure, he played like a franchise PG for about a month - but even the most stalwart Wall supporters would have been hard pressed to be certain that the change was permanent. In fact, the thread about his extension was about 80% on the side of "prove it". Imagine a scenario where Wall's trying to prove he's a max guy (either to earn the contract, or to justify it), with only Nene in the middle - and likely wearing him down to the point where Wall's having to play with Seraphin and Vesely at C. Probably another 45-50 loss season, and a lot of questions.

I don't care about wins and losses and playoffs this year for their own sake - the Wiz aren't really competing now anyway. But I do care about them as far as it concerns the development of the younger players, especially Wall. These guys aren't robots, they will play better and develop faster with solid teammates. I for one am glad that we're talking about playoff seeding rather than lottery position.

In the end, what happens now is secondary to the only question I think matters - what level will our Franchise player be at on ____ date? Let's use April 2015 as a benchmark - will Wall be further developed because of the Nenarizafortat deals? I say yes, unequivocally. Is that enough to have passed on a chance for Ryan Anderson or Willie Cauley-Stein? Again, I say yes - I'd much rather have elite Wall (which we are starting to see, IMO) without those guys than hoping Wall would (have) develop(ed) without Nene/Okafor/Gortat with them. I understand the sentiment of wanting/hoping for elite Wall and Anderson/2014 pick. I just think it might be a case of wanting to "have your cake and eat it too" - and may not have ever materialized.

[Coda - did you really use the 2013 draft to say "The Okariza acquisition should have really cost us a lot of long term talent, but we were saved by the lotto balls"? The worst draft since 2000, according to many? The one where we picked the guy who has so many posters concerned whether he's even an NBA contributor, let alone a star? Where it has been suggested we'd have been better off staying at 8 and picking Adams or Olynyk? Sorry, but if you're saying he undervalued the 2013 draft when he should have tanked for talent, I'm not buying that as a mark against EG. And that's not even addressing the Noel issue... ]

[montestewart]

Severn Hoos, I'm reluctant to and1 (because I bleed FIRE EG pink) but you make a lot of good points. The team right now is what it is, not the best position it could have been in, but surely not the worst either. Still, I can't seem to put down this pitchfork.

[fishercob]

Another good post, Sev.

If you made a poll the day the Okaforiza trade was made and stated the Wizards record would be 43-68 and we'd have to cough up a 1st round pick to replace Okafor with another starting C to get to that record, I wonder how many people would be so accepting of the Okaforiza deal then?

I don't think it's that simple. What would our record have been without the deal? It also, as Sev explains, presents a snapshot of one moment in time, rather than looking at a longer time horizon. I'm not smart enough to entirely dismiss the notion that you need to walk before you can run; there's some unquantifiable value in developing Wall here.

Some questions to consider -- would you trade Ariza and Gortat today for Anderson and mid-late first? I can see some merit to the deal, but I'm hardly convinced it would make the WIzards better on the court immediately.

Ariza has exceeded this entire board's expectations. He is playing like an elite, championship-level, 3-and-D guy. I think nearly everyone here thought we were basically getting just "a guy" who could defend, but was closer to a self-check on offense than a threat.

Obligatory line about feeling dirty and still wanting Ernie replaced.

[Severn Hoos]

I hear ya monte, I'm conflicted too. I certainly don't want to see more of the same for the next decade like the last.

But at the same time, I could see a scenario where every move that was made was not about "Win now!" or "Get to the Playoffs!" but under a mandate of "Make John Wall the best PG he can be." In that framework, I could see the exact same set of moves - but the difference is, they're not short term gain at the expense of long-term benefits, but are based on maximizing the value of the single biggest asset the franchise has.

So I'm not excusing or fully endorsing them, simply saying that a different lens to view the decisions could result in a different evaluation of their wisdom. And in the end, through fortuitous circumstances (i.e., luck), the team may very well end up better off a year or two from now than they would have had they held tight to their assets of cap space and draft pick (2014) - which are not sure things by any stretch.

[LyricalRico]

Some questions to consider -- would you trade Ariza and Gortat today for Anderson and mid-late first? I can see some merit to the deal, but I'm hardly convinced it would make the WIzards better on the court immediately.

Great point, fish.