Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VI

[WizarDynasty]

Guys like Ernie and Scout on this board have no clue how important lower body strength is for a bigman.
Lower body strength and demonstrated ability to win strength battles in a confined area against massive human weighing close to 300 pounds on a night to night basis and thrive with contact against the most powerful human beings in the world and not get INJURED
Is alot more important than the ability to do a cart wheel. You don't develop lower body strength after you get into the NBA and you don't develop the ability to win rebounding strength battles after you get into the NBA. This is why EG is a horrendous GM. His background as a jumpshooting forward from his pro days left his completely naive to elements needed for a dominant diamond in teh rough front court player. He thought he had it with Seraphin yet close examination would have showed the Seraphin had absolutely no rebounding instincts despite having excellent lower body strength.

A player with a frame and who has dominant strength and positioning rebounding is more important than a finesse center who can't bend his knees and generate leverage without injury.
Winning rebounding battles night to night is something you can rely on alot more than a player being hot or cold from his jumpshooting. A dominant rebounder and shot blocker....NEVER gets cold. A dominant rebounding shotblocker wins his battle every night no matter if his shot goes in or not, no matter if wall takes 20 shots or 5 shots, a dominant rebounding shotblocker always tilts the odds in your favor for 82 games. The consistency of a dominant rebounding shotblocker who shoots over 50 percent from close range on a limited shots is like having your best three point knock down 4 threes every night and shoot 50 percent from three no every game for 82 games guaranteed.

Having that type of reliability for 12 years from a seven footer with no injury history, aggressive personality, outstanding timing and motor, who can run the floor and finish, sets outstanding picks with great feet and we lucked up and got the number 3 pick and are guaranteed to get this type of player in a weak draft and he isn't in our plans because the mock boards call him raw and say that he should be 10th best player in stead of top 5 sounds alot like Drummond last year. Considering that we have Okafor at 14 million--our best rebounder and shotblocker, and we have absolutely zero young bigman that have a high basketball IQ and can defend the rim, and can be relied on the grab 10 boards a night. People it's a no brainer if the draft Experts had ADams ranked in the top 5 that the wizards are the best fit for the guy I am referring to considering who are young bigman prospects have been in the past.

So to repeat, the cornerstone of our defense is OKAFOR, an unwanted Journeyman who is making nearly 14 million a year. He has no upside left and will want a bare minimum of 10 million a year.
YOu have Nene who is CHRONICALLY injured. For the rest of his career, NENE each night is battling foot soreness.

YOu have one of the lowest basketball IQ player in the league in Seraphin who has absolutely zero rebounding instincts, a poor motor, has absolutely zero ability to draw fouls and hates contact despite being almost 280 pounds. The coaching staff has to teach Seraphin to ENJOY contact, do guys realize how ridiculous that sounds. We Are SCREWED at the bigman position. We are sitting at 8 with the possibility of sliding to 10th, where our bigmen of the future picks are OLYNK--soft--Zeller---soft like his brother---LEN---soft and brittle---NOEL---soft and brittle---- and what do you know....like a BLESSING from the sky----ADAMS---perfectly made for the wizards---but of course---we have EG a man who has absolutely no concept of how to evaluate BIGMEN prospects---and traded up thinking that BOOKER of all people would be a decent player in the NBA. The same

Man EG who watched VESELY close up in workouts and wasn't horrified that Vesely couldn't finish through contact consistenly or the fact that VESELY showed absolutely zero body control dribbling the ball as a small forward.---This is the guy who is going to make the decision on the last chip we have for probably the next ten years unless some idiots GM's let a guy like Hibbert slip to spot 18th in the draft in the future?
This is the same Man who saw Peter Ramos and didn't care the RAMOS had an basketball IQ of zero and no demonstrated ability in college.

Whatever happens, please don't let Grunfeld pick another soft, non dominant rebounder in college. For once,
can EG play it safe and get the 7 footer who dominated on the boards, who showed quickness and outstanding lower body strength. This will be first time since 2003 that EG has ever drafted a player with these attributes.
The likelihood that it will happen is almost zero to nil. EG for the first time since 2003, can you draft a 7 foot dominant rebounder, shotblocker, who thrives with physical contact? Your record shoes that you have never drafted such a player your entire 10 year career since you have been here. There is a reason why we have sucked for the last ten years. You bring in burned out veterans and you have no eye for talent with young bigmen. This will be your last time to ever get a young dominant rebounding seven footer shot blocker with outstanding lower body strength. He meets 4 out 4 on base characteristics. Explosiveness, body control, ability to finish with contact, and lower body strength. He meets the second level of the pyramid, outstanding wingspan, and excellent feet on the pick and roll, fights for rebounding position on every play with a high motor, and rebounds outside of his area with a sense of urgency. and then the top of the pyramid, the player shows high basketball iq, and competitive fire on both ends of the court consistently.


I post this to give my pretend GM's so extra Ideas to evaluate these prospects and realize that EG has never brought in a young seven footer, who we can say in the same breath--dominant rebounder in college, dominant shotblocker in college, dominant lower body strength, and HIGH MOTOR, with offensive UPSIDE, and no major injuries....all in the same breath.
We have never had a YOUNG prospect in the LAST 20 years with all of these attributes in ONE PERSON.
We have guys like Thomas Robinson, D.Williams, Kidd-Gilchrist, Wes Johnson, Udoh, and Turner, Vesely,

-- Never has there been a dominant rebounding, shotblocking seven footer, with elite lower body strength and no injury concerns and a high motor in college been drafted in the top 10 been a bust.

Number one, how many times has there ever even been a player with this profile first off. How many times has a seven footer with these attributes ever been AVAILABLE to the Wizards in the LAST 20 years. How many times have the wizards actually signed or traded for a young bigman with these attributes?

the only time you are going to get a decent bigman through trade is when they are already breaking down with no upside left and their market value is maxed out.
and you guys wanna blow this once in 20 years chance on a player like Ersan or free agency kind of player like Porter or Zeller.

A guy like Hibbert is never going to hit free agency, a guy like Lopez is never going to hit free agency unless hte Net find out he has something permanently wrong with him. a guy like bynum hits free agency because he is damaged goods. We are not going to ever get a young franchise level bigman after making the playoffs unless that bigman takes a one year tender like NICK YOUNG did. All teams are going to match the offer sheet on a young bigman with potential. These are the types of discussion we need to have when talking about this last high level draft pick the wizards are going to make in the next two weeks. Wall may be able to attract a bigtime free agent to come to DC with Cousins but that is not for another 5 years after he served out his second contract with Sacramento. Sacramento is going to match any restricted offer on Cousins. What other young bigman are known to choose playing for Washington over any one else. These are the discussions we need to make in the next 2 weeks because in 16 days, Wizards fate for becoming ELITE will be sealed. You got 16 days to cash in your last foundational piece to become a top 4 team. No free bigmen free agents have ties to the wizards and are going to choose the bigmarkets before coming to DC. You think Lebron would even consider a place like DC when he has LA and NY.
YOu have to take a risk on young building block bigman this draft. There is absolutely no way around it. That foundational block needs to be a demonstrated dominant rebounding and shotblocking bigman with elite lower body strength in college at the bare minimum.

[tontoz]

Is there a quick way to do a word count on WizD's post? That might be the longest one I have ever seen on this board.

[Dat2U]

Ain't no way in hell I'm reading all that ****!

[rockymac52]

... or we could be patient and draft a big man with our 1st round pick next year.

Larry Sanders: 15th overall
Nikola Vucevic: 16th overall
Kenneth Faried: 22nd overall
Roy Hibbert: 17th overall
Serge Ibaka: 24th overall
Nikola Pekovic: 31st overall

Patience is a virtue. The sky is not falling.

[Nivek]

Is there a quick way to do a word count on WizD's post? That might be the longest one I have ever seen on this board.

1,587 words, according to the cut & paste I did in Word.

[montestewart]

Is there a quick way to do a word count on WizD's post? That might be the longest one I have ever seen on this board.

3,174. He could sell that as a term paper.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

My TIERs are becoming clearer to me now... (fixed... Bennett is top of TIER FOUR)

TIER ONE ... none

TIER TWO ... Noel, Porter, Oladipo (3)

TIER THREE ... Len, Zeller, Olynyk, Burke (4)

TIER FOUR ... Bennett, Dieng, Adams, Rice, Muhammad, McLemore, Schroder, McCollum (7)

TIER FIVE ... Gobert, Muscala, Withey, Noguiera, Saric, Adetokunbo, KCP, Franklin, Green, Canaan
Jackson, Larkin, MCW (13)

TIER SIX ... Jatieh, Plumlee, Mitchell, Kelly, Harris, Karasev, Bullock, Crabbe, Ledo, Hardaway, Curry, Wolters (12)

Don't be shocked if Oladipo wins ROTY and Olynyk ends up all-rookie first team.

Franklin might also end up first team. He and KCP will surprise defensively, as will Tony Mitchell.

Canaan, Crabbe, and Wolters will surprise offensively.

Burke and Muhammed will struggle and will fall well below expectations.

Andre Roberson and Zeke Marshall will both emerge from round 2 to have long, productive NBA careers.

[W. Unseld]

I'm torn on Noel if he's there. I don't see the upside being any higher than Larry Sanders but Larry Sanders looks like he will be a solid pro for at least a decade whereas Porter may or may not.

[tontoz]

Is there a quick way to do a word count on WizD's post? That might be the longest one I have ever seen on this board.

1,587 words, according to the cut & paste I did in Word.

LOL Thanks

I think he has just set the bar so high that it may never be topped.

WizD, i bow down to thee....

Edit:

3,174. He could sell that as a term paper.

Pretty big discrepancy here. May need to investigate further.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Really interesting blog piece on some statistical draft outliers.

Victor Oladipo and Nerlens Noel may be unicorns. I’ve been playing around with the season finder on sports-reference.com, after a long comments section discussion over their merits. They both had seasons last year that have never been equaled, at least not since 1997.

First, Victor is the only player of significant minutes to average 59% from the field (actually .599), 44% from three, and 2 steals and 2 assists per game. This doesn’t even take into account the .6 blocks and the 6+ rebounds per game. At 28 minutes a game, that’s pretty impressive, and unbelievably unique. He’s a two way player like no other, at least in post-1997 college basketball history. Lest you think I’m completely in the tank for Oladipo (I am), let’s look at Nerlens Noel.

Noel is the only player since 1997 to average over 50% from the field (actually .590), 4 blocks per game, 2 steals per game, and 9 rebounds. Actually the steals and blocks by themselves are singularities. The only people to come close to this were all seniors from middling programs. UMass’s Tony Gaffney (2009), came close with 3.8 blocks. Anthony Davis is the only player with over 4 blocks per game who gets close to the steals number, and that is at 1.3 per game, well below Noel’s 2.1.

I see Oladipo by far as my favorite in this draft to be ROTY and a perennial all star. He is IMO highly intelligent, driven, extremely athletic, and IMO likely to develop skills necessary to make him an elite pro.

[Wizardspride]

Chad Ford

"Len, who is on crutches due to a stress fracture in his left ankle, isn't able to work out either. But that hasn't stopped his rise on our Big Board. Increasingly, teams are looking to him as a potentially safer alternative to Noel. While he's likely to miss the next four to five months as he rehabs his ankle, teams feel like he's got better size, is more polished offensively and could have a bigger upside than Noel. As we've previously reported, he's seriously in the mix with the Cavs for the No. 1 pick, with some sources indicating the Cavs could be moving his direction (I'm told Noel, Porter and Oladipo are the others). The Bobcats are also very high on Len, as are the Suns and Pelicans."

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

... or we could be patient and draft a big man with our 1st round pick next year.

Larry Sanders: 15th overall
Nikola Vucevic: 16th overall
Kenneth Faried: 22nd overall
Roy Hibbert: 17th overall
Serge Ibaka: 24th overall
Nikola Pekovic: 31st overall

Patience is a virtue. The sky is not falling.

If Olynyk falls to 15 add him to this list.

[miller31time]

Chad Ford

"Len, who is on crutches due to a stress fracture in his left ankle, isn't able to work out either. But that hasn't stopped his rise on our Big Board. Increasingly, teams are looking to him as a potentially safer alternative to Noel. While he's likely to miss the next four to five months as he rehabs his ankle, teams feel like he's got better size, is more polished offensively and could have a bigger upside than Noel. As we've previously reported, he's seriously in the mix with the Cavs for the No. 1 pick, with some sources indicating the Cavs could be moving his direction (I'm told Noel, Porter and Oladipo are the others). The Bobcats are also very high on Len, as are the Suns and Pelicans."

Very thankful not to see our name on that list.

[GhostsOfGil]

LOL wizD. I actually read that entire post. I was expecting more info on Len being a gymnast.

[AFM]

Lower body strength and demonstrated ability to win strength battles in a confined area against massive human weighing close to 300 pounds on a night to night basis and thrive with contact against the most powerful human beings in the world and not get INJURED
Is alot more important than the ability to do a cart wheel.

........

This is why EG is a horrendous GM. His background as a jumpshooting forward from his pro days left his completely naive to elements needed for a dominant diamond in teh rough front court player.

.........





YOu have one of the lowest basketball IQ player in the league in Seraphin who has absolutely zero rebounding instincts, a poor motor, has absolutely zero ability to draw fouls and hates contact despite being almost 280 pounds. The coaching staff has to teach Seraphin to ENJOY contact, do guys realize how ridiculous that sounds.

........



The same Man EG who watched VESELY close up in workouts and wasn't horrified that Vesely couldn't finish through contact consistenly or the fact that VESELY showed absolutely zero body control dribbling the ball as a small forward.---

He meets 4 out 4 on base characteristics. Explosiveness, body control, ability to finish with contact, and lower body strength. He meets the second level of the pyramid, outstanding wingspan, and excellent feet on the pick and roll, fights for rebounding position on every play with a high motor, and rebounds outside of his area with a sense of urgency. and then the top of the pyramid, the player shows high basketball iq, and competitive fire on both ends of the court consistently.



-- Never has there been a dominant rebounding, shotblocking seven footer, with elite lower body strength and no injury concerns and a high motor in college been drafted in the top 10 been a bust.


.........


YOu have to take a risk on young building block bigman this draft. There is absolutely no way around it. That foundational block needs to be a demonstrated dominant rebounding and shotblocking bigman with elite lower body strength in college at the bare minimum.

Highlights from another amazing WizD post.



The first line kills me

[montestewart]

Is there a quick way to do a word count on WizD's post? That might be the longest one I have ever seen on this board.

1,587 words, according to the cut & paste I did in Word.

Whoops, guess I pasted twice.

[tontoz]

Highlights from another amazing WizD post.



The first line kills me :lol:

Too much wisdom for one sentence to handle.

[FreeBalling]

I watched several MD games to see what all the hype about Len was. I was expecting more of a dominate style of play against his peers in the ACC. I can not say I was impressed and would not select him at #3.



Just win baby!

[gambitx777]

WIZD, that was legit. lol.
5 pages, in Times New Romans, 12pt font and double spaced.

But, i do have to ask, if we have to make a call between Len, Noel or bennett who are you picking? I am starting to like len as much as i did a few months ago. but lets say Porter and Len are gone. In my mind we either trade down a few spots or we take Oladipo, Noel scares me a bit. So if both porter and len go 1-2 what do we do?

[GhostsOfGil]

WIZD, that was legit. lol.
5 pages, in Times New Romans, 12pt font and double spaced.

I never once wrote a paper that long in 8 years of college/high school.