Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[The Consiglieri]

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... ing-report

"....That disjointed stroke (one that’s often saved by a great follow-through) is part of the reason why his accuracy drops to just 25.6 percent when he shoots off the bounce, according to Synergy Sports. Porter is just 20 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to improve in this area, but the percentages shouldn’t fool anyone into thinking the young forward is a finished product as a shooter.

Outside of his shooting, Porter doesn’t flash much offensive ability. He’s a fine ball mover but lacks the burst or explosiveness to beat people off the bounce, and Georgetown’s hybrid Princeton offense is devoid of the quick hitters and pick-and-roll reads that dominate the NBA level. That doesn’t mean Porter can’t ever be a competent offensive player; it just means he’ll have to put in quite a bit of work to do so...."


grantland scouts Porter and reemphasizes many of the reasons I do not want him.

On the positive side, work has never been something Porter has shied away from, on the negative side, a lack of athletic ability and related skill sets/tool kit is often something that can't be made up for at the highest levels.

Not sure if its been posted. Dissect as you please.

[sfam]

Agreed. I'm not necessarily on the Bennett bandwagon, although I think he's a top 5 talent. But he's still just as much in the mix as a possiblity at #3 as any of the other players we've been discussing. If there's no more to say about Bennett, then that's true of the others as well.

Here's my issue with taking Bennett with the 3rd pick: why not trade back with the T'Wolves and get the 9th pick, possibly the 26th pick as well, and Derrick Williams, who is clearly a very similar player to Bennett?

I understand that the people in the pro-Bennett camp probably think Bennett is going to be much better than D-Will at the NBA level, which would change your perspective on such a trade down, but honestly, what makes you guys think that Bennett will be significantly better than D-Will in the NBA? Why was D-Will such a disappointment, but Bennett won't fall into the same trap?

I'm of a similar opinion. I'd rather get D-Will and draft Adams.

I still don't think either Bennett or D-Will are starters in the NBA though. At least not without an elite defensive minded C to back them up.

We have a solid defensive minded center right now. What we don't have is elite offense in the front court. I don't think Dwill has either the handles or explosiveness of Bennett. And if I was trading back to #9, Adams is a project, not an elite defensive presence. You'd be better off drafting Zeller there, but then you'd want someone other than Dwill in the exchange.

[Dark Faze]

We'll have to agree to disagree stevemcqueen, but Derrick Williams got much more hype than Bennett at the time and I think justifiably so.

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/derrick-williams
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/anthony-bennett

I don't paritcularly care for nbadraft.net but I agree with their 10 point ratings here I simply had D-Will as being better than Bennett at everything but strength and rebounding. I just don't see the evidence of Bennett being quicker than Derrick was or more explosive, the guy was literally in the dunk contest as either a freshmen or soph and I liked his handle better. They actually ran the offense through him much like they run it through Olynyk at Gonzaga and he's an inch taller.

The problem with Derrick (and I think Bennett will have the same issue) is that he was so able to kill guys off of triple threat in college. He could face you up in iso and just blow by you and if he didn't finish he'd get a tip in or get an offensive rebound. It didn't happen that way in the pros and his shooting wasn't as good so you basically have what you had.

I think it'll happen to Bennett too. He won't dominate in face up as easily and his shooting will be down (maybe not as significantly as Derricks though) and bam, instant bench player.

[Dark Faze]

Here's my issue with taking Bennett with the 3rd pick: why not trade back with the T'Wolves and get the 9th pick, possibly the 26th pick as well, and Derrick Williams, who is clearly a very similar player to Bennett?

I understand that the people in the pro-Bennett camp probably think Bennett is going to be much better than D-Will at the NBA level, which would change your perspective on such a trade down, but honestly, what makes you guys think that Bennett will be significantly better than D-Will in the NBA? Why was D-Will such a disappointment, but Bennett won't fall into the same trap?

I'm of a similar opinion. I'd rather get D-Will and draft Adams.

I still don't think either Bennett or D-Will are starters in the NBA though. At least not without an elite defensive minded C to back them up.

We have a solid defensive minded center right now. What we don't have is elite offense in the front court. I don't think Dwill has either the handles or explosiveness of Bennett. And if I was trading back to #9, Adams is a project, not an elite defensive presence. You'd be better off drafting Zeller there, but then you'd want someone other than Dwill in the exchange.

I don't think you can get away with a solid defensive center with a guy like D-Will or Bennett as a starting 4. They literally have to be elite to make up for the deficiencies both of those players have defensively.

[Rafael122]

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/66694/nba-job-interview-otto-porter-jr-with-scouting-report

"....That disjointed stroke (one that’s often saved by a great follow-through) is part of the reason why his accuracy drops to just 25.6 percent when he shoots off the bounce, according to Synergy Sports. Porter is just 20 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to improve in this area, but the percentages shouldn’t fool anyone into thinking the young forward is a finished product as a shooter.

Outside of his shooting, Porter doesn’t flash much offensive ability. He’s a fine ball mover but lacks the burst or explosiveness to beat people off the bounce, and Georgetown’s hybrid Princeton offense is devoid of the quick hitters and pick-and-roll reads that dominate the NBA level. That doesn’t mean Porter can’t ever be a competent offensive player; it just means he’ll have to put in quite a bit of work to do so...."


grantland scouts Porter and reemphasizes many of the reasons I do not want him.

On the positive side, work has never been something Porter has shied away from, on the negative side, a lack of athletic ability and related skill sets/tool kit is often something that can't be made up for at the highest levels.

Not sure if its been posted. Dissect as you please.

So this article suggested he could be a Tayshaun Prince type of player. The horror, picking the next Tayshaun Prince with the 3rd overall pick. Dude was on the all defensive team (second team) 4 years in a row. I'm a big fan of Porter, I don't think he'll ever be an 18 points per game type of player, but probably around 12-14 points per game, 4-6 boards, and playing really good defense to boot. We're not gonna ask Porter to take over games, he doesn't have to on this team.

[Ruzious]

Not to beat a dead horse, but for the Olynyk fans - what did you think of Nick Fazekas when he was at Nevada, and why is Olynyk going to be much better than Fazekas - who's barely gotten a cup of coffee in the NBA?

[rockymac52]

And I do think Bennett is flat out better than DWill. They are different players, but Bennett is better talent IMO. I was never crazy about DWill. I think Bennett is a better athlete, better shooter, better rebounder, and better ball handler, a more creative offensive player. Derrick Williams never elicited the kind of LJ talk that Bennett has. He's not the same physical presence as Bennett.

If we're going to move back, I'd much rather move back slightly for Bennett than a veteran like DWill.

I disagree with you about Bennett being flat out better than D-Will. It's easy to say that in hindsight, but look at D-Will's college stats and you will be amazed. He was incredibly versatile, just like Bennett, and he was insanely efficient (even more so than Bennett was). Furthermore, it appears that D-Will has an inch or two height advantage over Bennett, despite the fact that D-Will is a tweener himself! Oh, and as for D-Will never getting compared to Larry Johnson... I bet if D-Will went to UNLV that wouldn't be the case. It's very difficult to think of an undersized but thick PF who can score from all over the floor who went to UNLV and NOT think of Larry Johnson.

DWill hasn't been very good. I think some of that was the team did not properly invest in him, they didn't give him a great opportunity to succeed. But I also don't think he was good enough to get himself on the court and make an impact elsewhere so he pigeonholed himself as Kevin Love's back up.

Maybe there are some off the court issues holding DWill back. Regardless, he's proving he's a disappointment.

So your reasons for why D-Will hasn't been very good are: (1) the T'Wolves didn't properly invest in him, giving him an opportunity to succeed, (2) he was only able to make an impact as a PF, and he was stuck behind Love in the rotation, and (3) there might be an off the court issue holding him back.

(1) Okay cool, the T'Wolves are to blame for his lack of development. Guess what? That means that if we traded for him, we could properly invest in him and give him the opportunity to succeed! So problem number one is solved.

(2) So he wasn't cut out to be a SF at the NBA level, oh well, good thing we already have Ariza and (likely) Webster. But the good news is that he was able to make an impact as a PF. Luckily that's a position we could use some help at. For the time being, D-Will might technically be "stuck" behind Nene, as the backup PF, but he'd still likely be able to get 24+ MPG, and he might even become our starting PF because he can spread the floor better than Nene. Once again, problem solved.

(3) This is obviously pure conjecture, and I haven't read anything that suggests there is a serious, legitimate off the court issue that's preventing him from succeeding on the court. This time we can't really solve the problem, since there probably wasn't one to begin with.

Huh, interesting... the only reasons D-Will hasn't been great in the NBA so far are the fault of his team, and if we acquired him, we'd be able to fix all of his issues and put him on the right path again.

I'm not really interested in using #3 to pick up some other team's failed project. I want to get our own man that we hand pick and can develop from day one.

D-Will is 22 years old and has only been in the league for 2 seasons, 1 of which was the lockout shortened one his rookie year, which surely did not help in his development. Even if he hasn't lived up to expectations, it's a pretty big stretch to label him as a failed project. He's been a solid, average player so far. Who's to say he can't turn it around and live up to the hype in the future? Especially considering we already identified the very few reasons why he was struggling in the NBA, and we can fix all of them.

Now, I understand the appeal of "handpicking our own man" and developing him from day one. I have nothing against doing that, no matter who the player is. But, I think you're forgetting that in this trade down scenario, we'd be adding D-Will AND whoever we choose to pick at 9. We may not have as many options at 9 as we do at 3, but we'll still be able to hand pick our guy. Then we can take all of the awesome developmental techniques we were going to use on Bennett and simply use them on D-Will, since they're incredibly similar players and both are very young. Then add in Zeller or Adams perhaps, and look, we just got 2 quality players for the price of 1! That's asset management. If you really like Bennett, that's fine, I respect your opinion. But I find it hard to believe you can justify preferring Bennett so heavily over D-Will, to the point where you think the difference between Bennett and D-Will is greater than whatever positive contribution we would have received from the 9th pick.

[Dark Faze]

Not to beat a dead horse, but for the Olynyk fans - what did you think of Nick Fazekas when he was at Nevada, and why is Olynyk going to be much better than Fazekas - who's barely gotten a cup of coffee in the NBA?

Olynyks advanced stats absolutely blaw Fazekas away, so its a lazy comparison.

[Ruzious]

Not to beat a dead horse, but for the Olynyk fans - what did you think of Nick Fazekas when he was at Nevada, and why is Olynyk going to be much better than Fazekas - who's barely gotten a cup of coffee in the NBA?

Olynyks advanced stats absolutely blaw Fazekas away, so its a lazy comparison.

Can you present them or provide a link? As far as eFG, TS%, and PER there wasn't much difference.

[rockymac52]

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/66694/nba-job-interview-otto-porter-jr-with-scouting-report

"....That disjointed stroke (one that’s often saved by a great follow-through) is part of the reason why his accuracy drops to just 25.6 percent when he shoots off the bounce, according to Synergy Sports. Porter is just 20 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to improve in this area, but the percentages shouldn’t fool anyone into thinking the young forward is a finished product as a shooter."

That stat is deceptive. He only had 39 shots off the dribble this season, which is slightly more than 1 per game. With a 25.6% scoring rate off the dribble, scoring .59 PPP (28th percentile), it appears that Porter is very bad at shooting off the dribble.

However, if you rewind a year, Porter's stats on shots off the dribble were the exact opposite. Although he only had 17 shots off the dribble as a freshman, about .5 per game, he was insanely efficient. As a freshman, Porter posted a phenomenal scoring rate of 64.7%, scoring 1.53 PPP (100th percentile - #1 in the entire NCAA).

Bottom line: both are very small sample sizes, and neither can be trusted.

[MDStar]

As I’m sitting here thinking a bit more, I believe that Len may be the pick after all. With our backcourt set for the foreseeable future, i don't believe that (hopefully) our last top 5 pick and building block, should be another perimeter oriented player. This is where Len comes in. With Okafor, not really in the future plans because of age, contract status or whatever else, we need a long term replacement to balance out the roster. And as Nate and others have said about Webster, there's no reason to write him off, so he can be our SF for the foreseeable future.

My preference would be Porter but I think the Wizards are leaning towards whoever is left out of Noel or Len.

[sfam]

D-Will is 22 years old and has only been in the league for 2 seasons, 1 of which was the lockout shortened one his rookie year, which surely did not help in his development. Even if he hasn't lived up to expectations, it's a pretty big stretch to label him as a failed project. He's been a solid, average player so far. Who's to say he can't turn it around and live up to the hype in the future? Especially considering we already identified the very few reasons why he was struggling in the NBA, and we can fix all of them.

Now, I understand the appeal of "handpicking our own man" and developing him from day one. I have nothing against doing that, no matter who the player is. But, I think you're forgetting that in this trade down scenario, we'd be adding D-Will AND whoever we choose to pick at 9. We may not have as many options at 9 as we do at 3, but we'll still be able to hand pick our guy. Then we can take all of the awesome developmental techniques we were going to use on Bennett and simply use them on D-Will, since they're incredibly similar players and both are very young. Then add in Zeller or Adams perhaps, and look, we just got 2 quality players for the price of 1! That's asset management. If you really like Bennett, that's fine, I respect your opinion. But I find it hard to believe you can justify preferring Bennett so heavily over D-Will, to the point where you think the difference between Bennett and D-Will is greater than whatever positive contribution we would have received from the 9th pick.

If we did do that trade, it would make more sense to get a CJM if available. Also I like Zeller more than DWill, and think he'd be great if still available, but I don't think Zeller plays center. We'd have a logjam at the PF position with Nene, Zeller, Dwill and Ernie's kids.

[rockymac52]

I'm of a similar opinion. I'd rather get D-Will and draft Adams.

I still don't think either Bennett or D-Will are starters in the NBA though. At least not without an elite defensive minded C to back them up.

We have a solid defensive minded center right now. What we don't have is elite offense in the front court. I don't think Dwill has either the handles or explosiveness of Bennett. And if I was trading back to #9, Adams is a project, not an elite defensive presence. You'd be better off drafting Zeller there, but then you'd want someone other than Dwill in the exchange.

I don't think you can get away with a solid defensive center with a guy like D-Will or Bennett as a starting 4. They literally have to be elite to make up for the deficiencies both of those players have defensively.

Hate all you want, but Bennett managed to post a Defensive Rating of 89.3 as a freshman, which is pretty damn good. Steven Adams' DRtg last year was 87, so slightly better than Bennett's. Yet Adams is seen as an elite defensive big man, but Bennett is perceived as very bad on defense. Makes NO sense. Larry Sanders posted a DRtg of 90.8 his junior year of college. Again, these stats have their flaws, but they're still worth noting.

[GhostsOfGil]

I just wrote that I believe the Cleveland Cavaliers will likely take Nerlens Noel at No. 1. However, what happens to Noel if he doesn't go to Cleveland? Will he slide down the draft board? I don't think so. Sources close to the Orlando Magic told ESPN.com on Saturday that if the Cavs pass on Kentucky big man Nerlens Noel, the Magic are leaning strongly toward selecting him with the No. 2 pick in the draft.

-Chad Ford.

Damn you Orlando. Mclemore wants to play in Orlando!

[GhostsOfGil]

Jalen and Bill interview Porter:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHsSCFGIw4M[/youtube]

[sfam]

We have a solid defensive minded center right now. What we don't have is elite offense in the front court. I don't think Dwill has either the handles or explosiveness of Bennett. And if I was trading back to #9, Adams is a project, not an elite defensive presence. You'd be better off drafting Zeller there, but then you'd want someone other than Dwill in the exchange.

I don't think you can get away with a solid defensive center with a guy like D-Will or Bennett as a starting 4. They literally have to be elite to make up for the deficiencies both of those players have defensively.

Hate all you want, but Bennett managed to post a Defensive Rating of 89.3 as a freshman, which is pretty damn good. Steven Adams' DRtg last year was 87, so slightly better than Bennett's. Yet Adams is seen as an elite defensive big man, but Bennett is perceived as very bad on defense. Makes NO sense. Larry Sanders posted a DRtg of 90.8 his junior year of college. Again, these stats have their flaws, but they're still worth noting.

From the chatter here, you'd think Bennett couldn't defend the hoop from a kindergartener with a kickball.

[Dark Faze]

Not to beat a dead horse, but for the Olynyk fans - what did you think of Nick Fazekas when he was at Nevada, and why is Olynyk going to be much better than Fazekas - who's barely gotten a cup of coffee in the NBA?

Olynyks advanced stats absolutely blaw Fazekas away, so its a lazy comparison.

Can you present them or provide a link? As far as eFG, TS%, and PER there wasn't much difference.

I accidently looked at his NBA advanced stats.

Yea, the college stats ARE similar, though Olynyk doing better while younger is a huge deal when it comes to prospects. Generally the longer it takes you to show out in college the worst your prospects are in the pros, and Olynyk posted a 67% TS as a junior vs Fazekas 61% as a junior.

But you're right they do compare and I didn't actually watch Fazekas in order to compare their style of play. You can only gain so much from stats.

[Dark Faze]

We have a solid defensive minded center right now. What we don't have is elite offense in the front court. I don't think Dwill has either the handles or explosiveness of Bennett. And if I was trading back to #9, Adams is a project, not an elite defensive presence. You'd be better off drafting Zeller there, but then you'd want someone other than Dwill in the exchange.

I don't think you can get away with a solid defensive center with a guy like D-Will or Bennett as a starting 4. They literally have to be elite to make up for the deficiencies both of those players have defensively.

Hate all you want, but Bennett managed to post a Defensive Rating of 89.3 as a freshman, which is pretty damn good. Steven Adams' DRtg last year was 87, so slightly better than Bennett's. Yet Adams is seen as an elite defensive big man, but Bennett is perceived as very bad on defense. Makes NO sense. Larry Sanders posted a DRtg of 90.8 his junior year of college. Again, these stats have their flaws, but they're still worth noting.

College DRTG is a useless statistic.

[Dat2U]

Not to beat a dead horse, but for the Olynyk fans - what did you think of Nick Fazekas when he was at Nevada, and why is Olynyk going to be much better than Fazekas - who's barely gotten a cup of coffee in the NBA?

I was not a fan. Fazekas looked the part of a stiff. Anyone who watched Fazekas mentioned how terrible an athlete he appeared to be. He moved like a stiff although he was quite effective and had a good skill level. Olynyk simply moves better and is far more agile.

As mentioned before, athletically, Olynyk reminds me of Andray Blatche. Heavy feet with hardly any lift but has good mobility and excellent body control.

[Dat2U]

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/66694/nba-job-interview-otto-porter-jr-with-scouting-report

"....That disjointed stroke (one that’s often saved by a great follow-through) is part of the reason why his accuracy drops to just 25.6 percent when he shoots off the bounce, according to Synergy Sports. Porter is just 20 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to improve in this area, but the percentages shouldn’t fool anyone into thinking the young forward is a finished product as a shooter."

That stat is deceptive. He only had 39 shots off the dribble this season, which is slightly more than 1 per game. With a 25.6% scoring rate off the dribble, scoring .59 PPP (28th percentile), it appears that Porter is very bad at shooting off the dribble.

However, if you rewind a year, Porter's stats on shots off the dribble were the exact opposite. Although he only had 17 shots off the dribble as a freshman, about .5 per game, he was insanely efficient. As a freshman, Porter posted a phenomenal scoring rate of 64.7%, scoring 1.53 PPP (100th percentile - #1 in the entire NCAA).

Bottom line: both are very small sample sizes, and neither can be trusted.

And I'm confident Porter is the type of kid to address these weaknesses early in his career. Despite grantland basically saying Porter has a limited offense upside, he managed to carry his team to a Big East title as high volume efficient scorer as a 19 yr old. I think Porter will be very effective at the next level despite his current flaws.