Official Trade Thread - Part XXX

[payitforward]

I think he jus need to play SF and learn from there vs pf...that's the toughest position in the league...
He also has a SF skill set...once he learn how to use his strength against smaller guys u can move him to pf where's he already know how to use his speed against slower guys

Who knows? You might be right. Do you think that if he'd been drafted by San Antonio, he'd be Kawhi Leonard? ...just yanking your chain a little.

I'm all for waiving Neal, but Bennett would just be on an end-of-season minimal contract and be a UFA. He wouldn't help us *now* and I don't think there'd be any competition for his services in the off season -- if we did make your bet that he can be good.

IOW, no reason to sign him now.

[Dark Faze]

Resigning Ariza to the same contract he got in Houston would have been fantastic. Though, to be fair, Ariza wanted more money to stay in DC.

The way I recall it Ariza's departure was basically self inflicted. Washington lowballed him and Ariza ended up taking the same money from Houston instead.

Washington can't take it personally. Ariza has done this very thing to a chip winning team in LA.

[Ruzious]

Resigning Ariza to the same contract he got in Houston would have been fantastic. Though, to be fair, Ariza wanted more money to stay in DC.

The way I recall it Ariza's departure was basically self inflicted. Washington lowballed him and Ariza ended up taking the same money from Houston instead.

Washington can't take it personally. Ariza has done this very thing to a chip winning team in LA.

I thought when the Wiz gave a nice big contract to Gortat, it would take pretty much that to keep Ariza. There were hints that he was jealous of the attention Wash management gave to Gortat as they were both upcoming free agents, and Ariza had nearly an all-star caliber year. I could see his point of view, but centers have always been in more demand than SF's.

[nate33]

The way I recall it Ariza's departure was basically self inflicted. Washington lowballed him and Ariza ended up taking the same money from Houston instead.

Washington can't take it personally. Ariza has done this very thing to a chip winning team in LA.

I thought when the Wiz gave a nice big contract to Gortat, it would take pretty much that to keep Ariza. There were hints that he was jealous of the attention Wash management gave to Gortat as they were both upcoming free agents, and Ariza had nearly an all-star caliber year. I could see his point of view, but centers have always been in more demand than SF's.

Not only that, but Gortat had a much longer track record of NBA success. Ariza had an outlier season with the Wizards, one that he had never duplicated before or since. He shouldn't be paid as a near All Star when that level of play was likely to be unsustainable.

[Dark Faze]

its pretty crazy how huge the gortat contract seemed at the time--peanuts now

gawwwwwd if we could have made the IT trade we'd have been a lock for the ECF in the near future--john, IT, gortat on old market deals

[deneem4]

Washington can't take it personally. Ariza has done this very thing to a chip winning team in LA.

I thought when the Wiz gave a nice big contract to Gortat, it would take pretty much that to keep Ariza. There were hints that he was jealous of the attention Wash management gave to Gortat as they were both upcoming free agents, and Ariza had nearly an all-star caliber year. I could see his point of view, but centers have always been in more demand than SF's.

Not only that, but Gortat had a much longer track record of NBA success. Ariza had an outlier season with the Wizards, one that he had never duplicated before or since. He shouldn't be paid as a near All Star when that level of play was likely to be unsustainable.

Ariza fitted the team better than gortat, ariza was our best defender and 3pt shooter when he was here...his shooting A rid bit under pierce last year in the playoffs...his defense was God'ly...

If we would've retained him signed j hill,p gasol even hawes(nene would play c)
Then brought in pierce the next year to play stretch 4 and six man...omg

[nate33]

I thought when the Wiz gave a nice big contract to Gortat, it would take pretty much that to keep Ariza. There were hints that he was jealous of the attention Wash management gave to Gortat as they were both upcoming free agents, and Ariza had nearly an all-star caliber year. I could see his point of view, but centers have always been in more demand than SF's.

Not only that, but Gortat had a much longer track record of NBA success. Ariza had an outlier season with the Wizards, one that he had never duplicated before or since. He shouldn't be paid as a near All Star when that level of play was likely to be unsustainable.

Ariza fitted the team better than gortat, ariza was our best defender and 3pt shooter when he was here...his shooting A rid bit under pierce last year in the playoffs...his defense was God'ly...

If we would've retained him signed j hill,p gasol even hawes(nene would play c)
Then brought in pierce the next year to play stretch 4 and six man...omg

Ariza was awesome in his last year here. No disagreement. But EG made the right call in believing that Gortat deserved a bigger salary than Ariza going forward. He knew this because Gortat had a much better long term track record of consistency. EG has proven to be correct. Gortat is worth more than Ariza.

Note, I'm not saying that we should have left Ariza walk. I would have been happy to retain Ariza for the contract he signed in Houston. I'm just saying that I wouldn't have paid him as much as Gortat.

[payitforward]

Washington can't take it personally. Ariza has done this very thing to a chip winning team in LA.

I thought when the Wiz gave a nice big contract to Gortat, it would take pretty much that to keep Ariza. There were hints that he was jealous of the attention Wash management gave to Gortat as they were both upcoming free agents, and Ariza had nearly an all-star caliber year. I could see his point of view, but centers have always been in more demand than SF's.

Not only that, but Gortat had a much longer track record of NBA success. Ariza had an outlier season with the Wizards, one that he had never duplicated before or since. He shouldn't be paid as a near All Star when that level of play was likely to be unsustainable.

Though I don't think your point about Ariza needs to be made in order to justify signing Gortat, I think calling his 2d season with us "an outlier season" seems a little extreme to me. His full season with the Lakers was just about as good, and he's played well most of his 11 seasons in the league.

But you are right that a Center of Gortat's caliber is harder to find than a good SF. There's always a shortage of tallness; it's just the nature of things.

[nate33]

I thought when the Wiz gave a nice big contract to Gortat, it would take pretty much that to keep Ariza. There were hints that he was jealous of the attention Wash management gave to Gortat as they were both upcoming free agents, and Ariza had nearly an all-star caliber year. I could see his point of view, but centers have always been in more demand than SF's.

Not only that, but Gortat had a much longer track record of NBA success. Ariza had an outlier season with the Wizards, one that he had never duplicated before or since. He shouldn't be paid as a near All Star when that level of play was likely to be unsustainable.

Though I don't think your point about Ariza needs to be made in order to justify signing Gortat, I think calling his 2d season with us "an outlier season" seems a little extreme to me. His full season with the Lakers was just about as good, and he's played well most of his 11 seasons in the league.

But you are right that a Center of Gortat's caliber is harder to find than a good SF. There's always a shortage of tallness; it's just the nature of things.

It was the 41% 3-point shooting that was the outlier. He was both a stopper defensively, and a true marksmen from 3-point range offensively. Elite defenders with an above 40% 3P% are the white whales of role players. Prior to that year, his career average from 3-point range was .325.

As it turned out, he managed to shoot .363 in Houston, which is good enough to help a team, but not as good as he was in Washington where he was a true weapon from out there.

[gambitx777]

Not only that, but Gortat had a much longer track record of NBA success. Ariza had an outlier season with the Wizards, one that he had never duplicated before or since. He shouldn't be paid as a near All Star when that level of play was likely to be unsustainable.

Though I don't think your point about Ariza needs to be made in order to justify signing Gortat, I think calling his 2d season with us "an outlier season" seems a little extreme to me. His full season with the Lakers was just about as good, and he's played well most of his 11 seasons in the league.

But you are right that a Center of Gortat's caliber is harder to find than a good SF. There's always a shortage of tallness; it's just the nature of things.

It was the 41% 3-point shooting that was the outlier. He was both a stopper defensively, and a true marksmen from 3-point range offensively. Elite defenders with an above 40% 3P% are the white whales of role players. Prior to that year, his career average from 3-point range was .325.

As it turned out, he managed to shoot .363 in Houston, which is good enough to help a team, but not as good as he was in Washington where he was a true weapon from out there.

His 3 point % went down because he left Wall and went to a team with no true PG and a high volume shooter like harden, filled with other guys who need the ball, a lot. Washington was, and still is a better fit for Ariza than the rockets.

[TheSecretWeapon]

His 3 point % went down because he left Wall and went to a team with no true PG and a high volume shooter like harden, filled with other guys who need the ball, a lot. Washington was, and still is a better fit for Ariza than the rockets.

Tough to say. The data is equivocal. It COULD be "Wall Effect" but it could also have just been a normal reversion to the mean.

Ariza didn't really shoot threes until 2008-09. Since then, he's 896-258 -- .354. Bear with me through the mathy part: There's a standard deviation .034 during that stretch. His .407 shooting from 3pt range that season with the Wizards was 1.6 standard deviations above average, which is a pretty significant difference.

Here's his departure from average year by year:

- 2008-09 -1.1
- 2009-10 -0.6
- 2010-11 -1.5 (86% of minutes with Chris Paul)
- 2011-12 -0.6 (Paul traded; PGs: Greivis Vasquez & Jarrett Jack)
- 2012-13 +0.3 (1st season with Wiz; 45% of minutes with Wall)
- 2013-14 +1.6 (91% of minutes with Wall)
- 2014-15 -0.1
- 2015-16 +0.7

What numbers I was able to pull from nbawowy before the site got wonky showed Ariza shooting better from 3pt land with Wall (.414 to .324) -- I think that's all from the good year.

When I look at the numbers, the most likely explanation is that he's generally gotten better at shooting threes as his career has progressed. He had an outlier year from 3pt range in 2013-14 followed by reversion to the mean in 2014-15. The narrative that it's pure Wall Effect would require the following sequence: bad year from 3pt range playing with Chris Paul; better year from 3pt range playing more minutes with AJ Price than Wall; terrific year playing mostly with Wall; average year playing with meh PGs in Houston; and then shooting better again with still meh PGs in Houston.

[payitforward]

In two years w/ the Wizards, Ariza shot @ .385 overall on @6.25 attempts per 40 minutes. This year he is shooting .379 on 6.9 attempts per 40 minutes.

Nate -- yes, I suppose his 2013-14 3 pt% was enough better than any previous year that it might be called an "outlier." But you didn't say that; you said his *season* -- i.e. his overall production -- was an outlier, and I think that's pretty clearly not the case.

Moreover, if in fact it was the specific fact of playing w/ Wall that led him to such a high 3 pt. %, then it being an outlier would not constitute a good reason to let him go. Rather, it would be a good reason to offer more than Houston -- because the "Wall effect" makes him more valuable to us than he was to Houston.

Hence... I don't think the argument holds much water. Then again, I don't really care that we let him go, so why am I taking such a granular look at this issue? Not sure. Probably just to bat the ball back and forth while Cleveland blows us out.

Or, probably to point out that -- in Ernie's typical fashion -- here is an asset which we a) acquired by spending assets of our own (cap space and picks) and b) let go 2 years later getting no real asset in return. IOW, a transaction w/ no positive effect on building a team: more or less an Ernie specialty.

[deneem4]

Ariza don't have plays set with Houston it's that simple...he don't practice running to his spots with those guys...jus getting out the way for harden...

[Dark Faze]

gotta trade porter yesterday

enough is enough--average defender, lagging three ball, can't create--would rather have nerlens filling out and blocking shots on our second unit than this trash

oubre has to develop now and I've seen enough of Porter...would like to see oubre start ASAP

I'm not sure what I even want from the PF position right now--just know its not kieff. he's trying and everything but god his offensive utility is almost literally just a poor mans nene without the size and strength

gawwwwwwwwwwd how did it come to this

[Illmatic12]

gotta trade porter yesterday

enough is enough--average defender, lagging three ball, can't create--would rather have nerlens filling out and blocking shots on our second unit than this trash

oubre has to develop now and I've seen enough of Porter...would like to see oubre start ASAP

I'm not sure what I even want from the PF position right now--just know its not kieff. he's trying and everything but god his offensive utility is almost literally just a poor mans nene without the size and strength

gawwwwwwwwwwd how did it come to this

I'm with you at this point.. I want Porter traded before next year's deadline. Don't want to deal with his RFA

People can keep saying "Let's wait on him" but what are we waiting for? His ceiling is an average SF at best, any journeyman wing signed for the MLE could replace him. Forcefeeding him minutes and waiting for him to become anything is a joke.

Any blind man could see that Oubre Jr is the one with actual potential as an athletic 3&D wing.. so trade Porter out of here and develop this guy:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6-d1PU3IN0[/youtube]

I would see if Minnesota could give us Dieng for Porter. Swap 2013 picks, that way EG can pretend in his head that he didn't blow that draft.

[Ruzious]

Oubre hasn't even begun to begin earning the right to take minutes from Porter. Just look at their stats - they're not even in the same ballpark. Porter for the SEASON has improved significantly over last season - his progress has been just fine. If anything, he should be featured more. He had a bad game - as did most of the team - but benching him in favor of Oubre at this time makes absolutely no sense. Oubre probably does have more potential, but right now Porter is clearly and demonstrably the better player, and rumor is the Wiz are trying to make the playoffs.

[closg00]

The Wizards are in desperate need of a D-League developmental route for transitioning rookies, not surprisingly we are amongst the last teams to have such an option.

We also desperately need a hard working , young GM who has the patience and vision to multi-task with respect to development, drafting, and FA evaluation. What we have is a GM who prefers to maintain a revolving door journeymen players while ditching draft assets like a hot potato.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Chase Budinger anyone?

[Illmatic12]

Oubre hasn't even begun to begin earning the right to take minutes from Porter. Just look at their stats - they're not even in the same ballpark. Porter for the SEASON has improved significantly over last season - his progress has been just fine. If anything, he should be featured more. He had a bad game - as did most of the team - but benching him in favor of Oubre at this time makes absolutely no sense. Oubre probably does have more potential, but right now Porter is clearly and demonstrably the better player, and rumor is the Wiz are trying to make the playoffs.

No one said to bench Porter for Oubre right now. Would bench Porter for Anderson though, and look for a trading partner in the offseason to get a young big in exchange for Otto.

Then groom Oubre as our starter over the next year or so.

[Ruzious]

Oubre hasn't even begun to begin earning the right to take minutes from Porter. Just look at their stats - they're not even in the same ballpark. Porter for the SEASON has improved significantly over last season - his progress has been just fine. If anything, he should be featured more. He had a bad game - as did most of the team - but benching him in favor of Oubre at this time makes absolutely no sense. Oubre probably does have more potential, but right now Porter is clearly and demonstrably the better player, and rumor is the Wiz are trying to make the playoffs.

No one said to bench Porter for Oubre right now. Would bench Porter for Anderson though, and look for a trading partner in the offseason to get a young big in exchange for Otto.

Then groom Oubre as our starter over the next year or so.

LOL, huh? I said "take minutes". Benching is quite a bit stronger, don't ya think? Remember when you were whining about the Wiz "forcefeeding" Otto minutes instead of developing Oubre? The people you were complaining about them saying to wait to see how Porter does - were saying to wait the rest of this season. There's nothing wrong with that. And Porter at 22 this season has done better than Anderson has ever done in his entire career.