Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[pcbothwel]

Agreed.
Has anybody looked at the FA market this year? How many guys are better than Bertans? Sure, you got CP3, Kawhi, Conley, Lowry, Derozan, and Holiday (Most all of which are in their mid 30's, but whatever). Throw in Powell too.

But Oladipo, Dragic, Hardaway, Oubre, Barton, Schroder(who just turned down 4/84M!!!).
Bertans has been better than them, zero question (Yes, Bertans has been about as good as Otto, but Otto has missed way too many games).

I dont see how a team would pay Schroder 4/84, but wont pay Bertans 4/65M. Thats just insane.

[payitforward]

Siakam for Bryant, Deni, Bertans and ‘21 Wizards 1st?

Maybe if the Wizards 1st ended up around 7th or 8th, but definitely not if it's in the top 4.

Overall, I'm not really that excited about Siakam on the Wizards because he's redundant with Hachimura. I'd be much more interested in a deal for OG Anunoby, but he is poison pill so it's not really feasible.

Siakam had one really good year & it got him paid. He hasn't been particularly good the last couple of years. I would have no interest in him.

The proposed trade would be a total disaster. I wouldn't trade our R1 pick straight up for Siakam.

[NatP4]

Yeah that would be absolutely terrible.

We need to roll with our 20-24 year old players and value draft picks.

[pcbothwel]

Finally... you are a perennial optimist: what could possibly be wrong with that? Nothing as far as I can see. Certainly, it's way better than being a perennial pessimist!

So let's hope that our professional organization makes some savvy moves & that the result in this ever changing dynamic environment is that we start to improve. I'm sure that would make us both happy! Peace!

PIF. I wanted to get your thoughts on something as well as provide another example of little to no moves year over year resulting in massive differences.
I mentioned that I like the bones of this team and still think there is something there. I pointed to Miami, the Suns, Charlotte, etc. as examples. But I have another.

Toronto Raptors:
Last year they won 74% of their games (60 win pace) with Masai as Exec, Nick Nurse as their coach, and the following 6 players playing the most minutes:
Lowry, FVV, Siakam, OG, Powell, and Ibaka

This year they have won 38% of their games (31 win pace; half as many as year before) with Masai, Nick Nurse, and the following 6 players playing the most minutes:
Lowry, FVV, Siakam, OG, Powell, and Boucher

Now, each of the players I listed have been the same or better than last year. Soooo. Explain this. It's clearly all on the defensive end of the court, but how? It cant just be the switch from Gasol to Baynes?

Point being, why couldnt the reverse happen?
BTW, Im truly trying to figure this out and this is not rhetorical

[Ruzious]

Siakam for Bryant, Deni, Bertans and ‘21 Wizards 1st?

Maybe if the Wizards 1st ended up around 7th or 8th, but definitely not if it's in the top 4.

Overall, I'm not really that excited about Siakam on the Wizards because he's redundant with Hachimura. I'd be much more interested in a deal for OG Anunoby, but he is poison pill so it's not really feasible.

Siakam had one really good year & it got him paid. He hasn't been particularly good the last couple of years. I would have no interest in him.

The proposed trade would be a total disaster. I wouldn't trade our R1 pick straight up for Siakam.

The main reason Siakam's play fell off was because Leonard left, and the double-teams that went at Leonard switched to Siakam. He no longer had the protection from being Leonard's teammate.

[badinage]

Finally... you are a perennial optimist: what could possibly be wrong with that? Nothing as far as I can see. Certainly, it's way better than being a perennial pessimist!

So let's hope that our professional organization makes some savvy moves & that the result in this ever changing dynamic environment is that we start to improve. I'm sure that would make us both happy! Peace!

PIF. I wanted to get your thoughts on something as well as provide another example of little to no moves year over year resulting in massive differences.
I mentioned that I like the bones of this team and still think there is something there. I pointed to Miami, the Suns, Charlotte, etc. as examples. But I have another.

Toronto Raptors:
Last year they won 74% of their games (60 win pace) with Masai as Exec, Nick Nurse as their coach, and the following 6 players playing the most minutes:
Lowry, FVV, Siakam, OG, Powell, and Ibaka

This year they have won 38% of their games (31 win pace; half as many as year before) with Masai, Nick Nurse, and the following 6 players playing the most minutes:
Lowry, FVV, Siakam, OG, Powell, and Boucher

Now, each of the players I listed have been the same or better than last year. Soooo. Explain this. It's clearly all on the defensive end of the court, but how? It cant just be the switch from Gasol to Baynes?

Point being, why couldnt the reverse happen?
BTW, Im truly trying to figure this out and this is not rhetorical

They’re playing far from home IN ANOTHER (and vastly inferior) CITY and (somewhat inferior) COUNTRY.

That’s a huge upheaval.

Then you have the GM working without a contract for next year, and reportedly unhappy with ownership.

The defense has fallen off.

There’s a pandemic.

They had guys out with COVID19.

Shtuff happens.

Oh, and: they weren’t nearly as good as their record last year.

[DCZards]

They’re playing far from home IN ANOTHER (and vastly inferior) CITY and (somewhat inferior) COUNTRY.

That’s a huge upheaval.

Then you have the GM working without a contract for next year, and reportedly unhappy with ownership.

The defense has fallen off.

There’s a pandemic.

They had guys out with COVID19.

Shtuff happens.

Oh, and: they weren’t nearly as good as their record last year.

USA may be “somewhat inferior” for some people but for Black folks (and the overwhelming majority of NBA players are Black) there’s very little difference between Canada and USA. In fact, I’d argue that America’s diversity makes it somewhat superior to Canada for Black people and other people of color.

While Canadians often believe that our country is a model when it comes to inclusion, the hard truth is we have a long way to go toward achieving equity for the Black population in Canada. A new review and compilation of the available data by BCG and CivicAction demonstrate the depth and pervasiveness of anti-Black racism in Canada, and how systemic racism against Black individuals appears across their full lifecycle in areas like education, employment, healthcare, and policing.

https://www.bcg.com/en-ca/publications/2020/reality-of-anti-black-racism-in-canada

[payitforward]

Finally... you are a perennial optimist: what could possibly be wrong with that? Nothing as far as I can see. Certainly, it's way better than being a perennial pessimist!

So let's hope that our professional organization makes some savvy moves & that the result in this ever changing dynamic environment is that we start to improve. I'm sure that would make us both happy! Peace!

PIF. I wanted to get your thoughts on something as well as provide another example of little to no moves year over year resulting in massive differences.
I mentioned that I like the bones of this team and still think there is something there. I pointed to Miami, the Suns, Charlotte, etc. as examples. But I have another.

Toronto Raptors:
Last year they won 74% of their games (60 win pace) with Masai as Exec, Nick Nurse as their coach, and the following 6 players playing the most minutes:
Lowry, FVV, Siakam, OG, Powell, and Ibaka

This year they have won 38% of their games (31 win pace; half as many as year before) with Masai, Nick Nurse, and the following 6 players playing the most minutes:
Lowry, FVV, Siakam, OG, Powell, and Boucher

Now, each of the players I listed have been the same or better than last year. Soooo. Explain this. It's clearly all on the defensive end of the court, but how? It cant just be the switch from Gasol to Baynes?

Point being, why couldnt the reverse happen?
BTW, Im truly trying to figure this out and this is not rhetorical

This is a great question! &... I really have no answer. As I look at Toronto player performance last year, they won way more games than I would have expected. This year, it's more or less the opposite -- though not as extremely so.

Overall, Toronto's players aren't performing as well as last year -- but it sure ain't the difference between a team with a .736 winning % last year vs. a .375 winning % this year.

The single biggest message is that "metrics" are different from reality.

When you think about various ways of measuring performance, you can do no better than compare them to each other to see how they correlate to real-world results over time. Then you mostly depend on the best one.

But, it's a mistake to imagine that any of these -- whether it's PER or Win Shares or WP48 -- is a magic mirror that shows you exactly the way things are in the world.

Imagine a team going 5-5 in 10 games, but the wins are by an average of 5 points, while the losses are by an average of 15 points. Over the stretch, that team is down 5 points per game. That differential will very likely reflect the team's overall level of play in those 10 games with greater accuracy than the 5-5 record. Over the long haul, the two will converge -- the record will begin to reflect the reality of the team.

[The Consiglieri]

Wiz should probably figure out how to use Westbrook better, because the chances of him being traded are very small.

Sounds like he’s been a key element in Rui improving his game. Might just be nonsense, but supposedly he’s in his ear a ton about upping his aggressiveness. If he has anything to do w/an evolution in his game that’s a good thing and finally a positive aspect to that trade.

[NatP4]

Pretty pessimistic about the 1st round pick. There are clearly 5 teams that are worse than us that will continue to lose games. It’s looking like the best case scenario is finishing 6th worst, which results in some uninspiring odds.

Even if the shut down Beal, this team isn’t going to drop below dumpster fire teams like Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, and Houston. The wizards will pick 6-8.

We basically have a 30-37% chance at an impact prospect. I think there’s a better chance at landing Masai.

[gambitx777]

Well we have a chance to win the lotto and look just do our home work and pick good we've gotten two pretty decent plyers late in the top ten lately in deni and Rui so let just see.

Pretty pessimistic about the 1st round pick. There are clearly 5 teams that are worse than us that will continue to lose games. It’s looking like the best case scenario is finishing 6th worst, which results in some uninspiring odds.

Even if the shut down Beal, this team isn’t going to drop below dumpster fire teams like Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, and Houston. The wizards will pick 6-8.

We basically have a 30-37% chance at an impact prospect. I think there’s a better chance at landing Masai.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[pcbothwel]

Pretty pessimistic about the 1st round pick. There are clearly 5 teams that are worse than us that will continue to lose games. It’s looking like the best case scenario is finishing 6th worst, which results in some uninspiring odds.

Even if the shut down Beal, this team isn’t going to drop below dumpster fire teams like Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, and Houston. The wizards will pick 6-8.

We basically have a 30-37% chance at an impact prospect. I think there’s a better chance at landing Masai.

I disagree. Ending up at 6/7 in the lottery (~35% chance of top 4) with our core intact was our best hope.
Russ looks healthy and explosive. Beal has continued to get better. Rui has improved. Mathews, Bonga, Winston, Hutchinson, and Gafford all appear to be roster/rotation worthy going into next year.

The only real "Major" issues have been Deni not progressing and Bryant getting hurt... but Deni is 19 with a high IQ and Bryant will have 12 months of rehab before the All Star break next year.
For us to finish with the 6th worst record, I would have figured that Beal would be injured/traded and Russ would be injured/washed. Neither are true.

[verbal8]

Finally... you are a perennial optimist: what could possibly be wrong with that? Nothing as far as I can see. Certainly, it's way better than being a perennial pessimist!

So let's hope that our professional organization makes some savvy moves & that the result in this ever changing dynamic environment is that we start to improve. I'm sure that would make us both happy! Peace!

PIF. I wanted to get your thoughts on something as well as provide another example of little to no moves year over year resulting in massive differences.
I mentioned that I like the bones of this team and still think there is something there. I pointed to Miami, the Suns, Charlotte, etc. as examples. But I have another.

Toronto Raptors:
Last year they won 74% of their games (60 win pace) with Masai as Exec, Nick Nurse as their coach, and the following 6 players playing the most minutes:
Lowry, FVV, Siakam, OG, Powell, and Ibaka

This year they have won 38% of their games (31 win pace; half as many as year before) with Masai, Nick Nurse, and the following 6 players playing the most minutes:
Lowry, FVV, Siakam, OG, Powell, and Boucher

Now, each of the players I listed have been the same or better than last year. Soooo. Explain this. It's clearly all on the defensive end of the court, but how? It cant just be the switch from Gasol to Baynes?

Point being, why couldnt the reverse happen?
BTW, Im truly trying to figure this out and this is not rhetorical

This is a great question! &... I really have no answer. As I look at Toronto player performance last year, they won way more games than I would have expected. This year, it's more or less the opposite -- though not as extremely so.

Overall, Toronto's players aren't performing as well as last year -- but it sure ain't the difference between a team with a .736 winning % last year vs. a .375 winning % this year.

The single biggest message is that "metrics" are different from reality.

When you think about various ways of measuring performance, you can do no better than compare them to each other to see how they correlate to real-world results over time. Then you mostly depend on the best one.

But, it's a mistake to imagine that any of these -- whether it's PER or Win Shares or WP48 -- is a magic mirror that shows you exactly the way things are in the world.

Imagine a team going 5-5 in 10 games, but the wins are by an average of 5 points, while the losses are by an average of 15 points. Over the stretch, that team is down 5 points per game. That differential will very likely reflect the team's overall level of play in those 10 games with greater accuracy than the 5-5 record. Over the long haul, the two will converge -- the record will begin to reflect the reality of the team.

There seem to be a number of things going on with the Raptors. One thing is their record is worse than their expected record on basketball-reference(they would be just under .500), they also were a little better than expectations last year 54 wins vs. 50. The decline or progress in a season between those ranges are pretty typical.

So the question is how did this occur. WIn Shares isn't perfect, but I think it has a fair amount of value in comparing a player through his career. Lowry is having an off year. WS/48 declined from 0.171 to 0.117. Boucher has had taken advantage or more minutes but the other 3 players have been fairly average this season. The bench doesn't look very good this season according to WS/48, last season even the bench players were generally above average (0.1).

[verbal8]

Pretty pessimistic about the 1st round pick. There are clearly 5 teams that are worse than us that will continue to lose games. It’s looking like the best case scenario is finishing 6th worst, which results in some uninspiring odds.

Even if the shut down Beal, this team isn’t going to drop below dumpster fire teams like Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, and Houston. The wizards will pick 6-8.

We basically have a 30-37% chance at an impact prospect. I think there’s a better chance at landing Masai.

They could also be related depending on when Masai makes his decision. The Wizards with Beal and a top 3 pick is a much more appealing destination for a GM.

[Ruzious]

Pretty pessimistic about the 1st round pick. There are clearly 5 teams that are worse than us that will continue to lose games. It’s looking like the best case scenario is finishing 6th worst, which results in some uninspiring odds.

Even if the shut down Beal, this team isn’t going to drop below dumpster fire teams like Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, and Houston. The wizards will pick 6-8.

We basically have a 30-37% chance at an impact prospect. I think there’s a better chance at landing Masai.

I just did the Tankathon 5 times, and I got the following for the Wiz: 3, 7, 1, 3, 1.

[pcbothwel]

PIF. I wanted to get your thoughts on something as well as provide another example of little to no moves year over year resulting in massive differences.
I mentioned that I like the bones of this team and still think there is something there. I pointed to Miami, the Suns, Charlotte, etc. as examples. But I have another.

Toronto Raptors:
Last year they won 74% of their games (60 win pace) with Masai as Exec, Nick Nurse as their coach, and the following 6 players playing the most minutes:
Lowry, FVV, Siakam, OG, Powell, and Ibaka

This year they have won 38% of their games (31 win pace; half as many as year before) with Masai, Nick Nurse, and the following 6 players playing the most minutes:
Lowry, FVV, Siakam, OG, Powell, and Boucher

Now, each of the players I listed have been the same or better than last year. Soooo. Explain this. It's clearly all on the defensive end of the court, but how? It cant just be the switch from Gasol to Baynes?

Point being, why couldnt the reverse happen?
BTW, Im truly trying to figure this out and this is not rhetorical

This is a great question! &... I really have no answer. As I look at Toronto player performance last year, they won way more games than I would have expected. This year, it's more or less the opposite -- though not as extremely so.

Overall, Toronto's players aren't performing as well as last year -- but it sure ain't the difference between a team with a .736 winning % last year vs. a .375 winning % this year.

The single biggest message is that "metrics" are different from reality.

When you think about various ways of measuring performance, you can do no better than compare them to each other to see how they correlate to real-world results over time. Then you mostly depend on the best one.

But, it's a mistake to imagine that any of these -- whether it's PER or Win Shares or WP48 -- is a magic mirror that shows you exactly the way things are in the world.

Imagine a team going 5-5 in 10 games, but the wins are by an average of 5 points, while the losses are by an average of 15 points. Over the stretch, that team is down 5 points per game. That differential will very likely reflect the team's overall level of play in those 10 games with greater accuracy than the 5-5 record. Over the long haul, the two will converge -- the record will begin to reflect the reality of the team.

There seem to be a number of things going on with the Raptors. One thing is their record is worse than their expected record on basketball-reference(they would be just under .500), they also were a little better than expectations last year 54 wins vs. 50. The decline or progress in a season between those ranges are pretty typical.

So the question is how did this occur. WIn Shares isn't perfect, but I think it has a fair amount of value in comparing a player through his career. Lowry is having an off year. WS/48 declined from 0.171 to 0.117. Boucher has had taken advantage or more minutes but the other 3 players have been fairly average this season. The bench doesn't look very good this season according to WS/48, last season even the bench players were generally above average (0.1).

All certainly possible:

But PIF had asserted two things over and over:
1) You are as good as your record
2) We arent close to being competitive (Top 4 seed)

The Raptors are proof that
1) With the same top players, execs, and coaches, a team's record could vary wildly year over year. Thereby proving that your record doesn't fully encapsulate the ceiling or floor of a team.
2) Small changes to rotational players (6-10) can make drastic differences.

I've stated that being 6th in the lotto chances plus our core players make a competitive team that is held back by some combination of terrible coaching (Brooks & Longabardi), bad luck (Injury/slow start from Russ, Bertans, and Bryant), and young players with promise, but not quite ready (Bonga, Rui, Deni).

Could I be wrong? Sure, but there is precedent of teams vastly improving and declining without major changes/rebuilds with the Hornets, Suns, Knicks, and Raptors this year.

[NatP4]

If NOP jumps into the top 3 of the lottery, what else would we need them to add to a Beal trade outside of top 3 pick+multiple high 2nds+filler?

[Ruzious]

If NOP jumps into the top 3 of the lottery, what else would we need them to add to a Beal trade outside of top 3 pick+multiple high 2nds+filler?

NAW. He's coming off a 31 point game - starting to show what the future could hold for him. NAW plus a top 3 pick would be a good start.

[pcbothwel]

If NOP jumps into the top 3 of the lottery, what else would we need them to add to a Beal trade outside of top 3 pick+multiple high 2nds+filler?

Ehhh. They've won 4 of 6 and think they end up 11/12th.
The only team in the top 10 that has the balls to make a move for Beal with their pick is Toronto and Orlando. But Orlando just sold off Vuc & Gordon, so that may have passed.

[NatP4]

If NOP jumps into the top 3 of the lottery, what else would we need them to add to a Beal trade outside of top 3 pick+multiple high 2nds+filler?

NAW. He's coming off a 31 point game - starting to show what the future could hold for him. NAW plus a top 3 pick would be a good start.

That would be a great pickup. NAW is a really good defender along with that developing offensive game.

NAW, Hayes, Bledsoe, Top 3 pick, 35&36th overall for Beal?

We would still have to tank through the last couple years of the Westbrook and Bledsoe contracts, but that could allow us to convey the least valuable asset(s) possible to Houston from the Wall deal.