2025 Draft Thread - Part 3

[NatP4]

I think Queen has a real chance at dropping to 18

[The Consiglieri]

Kon Knueppel is a good example of where advanced stats can steer you wrong. Aint no way this dude gonna be anything more than a mercenary three point bench wing.

He's definitely more than that, but I've always felt that anyone lifting him up into top 3-5 territory is insane. He's a perfect target for a team that needs shooting and predictability as a 4th or 5th option: he's a perfect fit for teams to me that are already contenders and need a shooter, he's a horrific fit for teams that are disasters (us, Charlotte, Utah etc).

I'm at a point where I don't think pure shooters should be drafted in the first round unless you think they have elite 3 and D potential or all-star potential.

Almost every year these "best shooter in the draft" guys just disappear. Even some of the best shooters in NBA history like Reddick and Korver bounced all over the place. Pure shooting guys just aren't going to be ready 9 times out of 10 to contribute to winning basketball in their early years. They still have to develop like any other archetype. And unless the ceiling is quite high, you're wasting the pick, because you can get a veteran pure shooter for relatively cheap in free agency.

Now obviously you think more highly of Kon than I do, so you can probably disregard most of this post, but just wanted to post my thoughts on pure shooters. We wasted a pick on Corey. I like the kid. But we wasted the pick. I think the Raptors wasted the pick in Dick. The Lakers wasted the pick on Knecht. Just IMO.

Oh I'm right there with you on Corey, when we made that pick, us, our going nowhere team, tried to get a walk, not even try to swing for a double, in a draft where we had no elite anything, I was tearing my hair out, by the Johnny Davis pick good lord, but honestly the Davis pick had more to recommend it: guy came off an all everything year, was young, Big 10 Player of the Year, every analyst had him in their top 10-12, I didn't want him, but at least I understood it. Kispert was a pick a team like Boston, Milwaukee, Denver, the LA's, Golden State post Klay could justify, but wtf did we need Kispert for when we had no first option, second option or 3rd? Always utterly asinine.

Now I happen to think Kon is definitely more than Kispert, 1000% more valuable than Kispert, but I agree with/the fundamental philosophy behind your dislike, which sounds like mine as well: this guy is literally NEVER going to be an elite player, there is literally 0-1% chance he's ever close to all NBA, first, second or 3rd. He's a luxury pick that a team like the Spurs or OKC or Houston could justify, just fitting a role there with a guy they know isn't going to bust, but if you are a bottom 5-10 team in the league, you flat out cannot afford to draft a player that has about a 3-5% chance of ever putting together one "top 3 player on a great team" season. It's lunacy. To me, philosophically, if you suck, you should be swinging out of your shoes on draft night, because you only win in this league if you have multiple mega studs period. the other method (balanced team with no great players but every position manned by solid to good players wins titles or makes conference finals basically 1 out of every 8-12 years tops)...So I'm with you, philosophically, I think I just saw enough from Kon to believe that he can be a + starter, maybe even good, I just see no chance whatsoever at "great" which is why nobody should be taking him that high, to me anyway.

[Benjammin]

Meanwhile I keep checking this forum and Twitter/X...

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[tontoz]

I wasn't following the draft when we drafted Kispert but looking at the guys drafted right after him....ugh.

[Dat2U]

He's definitely more than that, but I've always felt that anyone lifting him up into top 3-5 territory is insane. He's a perfect target for a team that needs shooting and predictability as a 4th or 5th option: he's a perfect fit for teams to me that are already contenders and need a shooter, he's a horrific fit for teams that are disasters (us, Charlotte, Utah etc).

I'm at a point where I don't think pure shooters should be drafted in the first round unless you think they have elite 3 and D potential or all-star potential.

Almost every year these "best shooter in the draft" guys just disappear. Even some of the best shooters in NBA history like Reddick and Korver bounced all over the place. Pure shooting guys just aren't going to be ready 9 times out of 10 to contribute to winning basketball in their early years. They still have to develop like any other archetype. And unless the ceiling is quite high, you're wasting the pick, because you can get a veteran pure shooter for relatively cheap in free agency.

Now obviously you think more highly of Kon than I do, so you can probably disregard most of this post, but just wanted to post my thoughts on pure shooters. We wasted a pick on Corey. I like the kid. But we wasted the pick. I think the Raptors wasted the pick in Dick. The Lakers wasted the pick on Knecht. Just IMO.

Oh I'm right there with you on Corey, when we made that pick, us, our going nowhere team, tried to get a walk, not even try to swing for a double, in a draft where we had no elite anything, I was tearing my hair out, by the Johnny Davis pick good lord, but honestly the Davis pick had more to recommend it: guy came off an all everything year, was young, Big 10 Player of the Year, every analyst had him in their top 10-12, I didn't want him, but at least I understood it. Kispert was a pick a team like Boston, Milwaukee, Denver, the LA's, Golden State post Klay could justify, but wtf did we need Kispert for when we had no first option, second option or 3rd? Always utterly asinine.

Now I happen to think Kon is definitely more than Kispert, 1000% more valuable than Kispert, but I agree with/the fundamental philosophy behind your dislike, which sounds like mine as well: this guy is literally NEVER going to be an elite player, there is literally 0-1% chance he's ever close to all NBA, first, second or 3rd. He's a luxury pick that a team like the Spurs or OKC or Houston could justify, just fitting a role there with a guy they know isn't going to bust, but if you are a bottom 5-10 team in the league, you flat out cannot afford to draft a player that has about a 3-5% chance of ever putting together one "top 3 player on a great team" season. It's lunacy. To me, philosophically, if you suck, you should be swinging out of your shoes on draft night, because you only win in this league if you have multiple mega studs period. the other method (balanced team with no great players but every position manned by solid to good players wins titles or makes conference finals basically 1 out of every 8-12 years tops)...So I'm with you, philosophically, I think I just saw enough from Kon to believe that he can be a + starter, maybe even good, I just see no chance whatsoever at "great" which is why nobody should be taking him that high, to me anyway.

If this were the case, he would be the GOAT prospect and worthy of a #1 pick.

[jangles86]

Bub/Smart/Brogdon/AJ
McCollum/Coulibaly/Kispert
Ace/George/Champagnie
Middleton/Olynyk
Sarr/Queen

[awolfinwater]

I wonder if players just really like Will Dawkins and what he has to say because it’s looking like two years in a row where young talent is trying to force there way to lowly DC

I can't believe I'm saying this as a fan of this franchise, but we finally have a strategy. The focus on acquiring and developing talent. We have an atmosphere where young kids get minutes combined with seasoned vets to help mentor their growth.

If I was to start my career over again, I would want a job where I can make mistakes and learn from those that have vast amounts of experience.

We have that now with our franchise. It's great!

[The Consiglieri]

I'm at a point where I don't think pure shooters should be drafted in the first round unless you think they have elite 3 and D potential or all-star potential.

Almost every year these "best shooter in the draft" guys just disappear. Even some of the best shooters in NBA history like Reddick and Korver bounced all over the place. Pure shooting guys just aren't going to be ready 9 times out of 10 to contribute to winning basketball in their early years. They still have to develop like any other archetype. And unless the ceiling is quite high, you're wasting the pick, because you can get a veteran pure shooter for relatively cheap in free agency.

Now obviously you think more highly of Kon than I do, so you can probably disregard most of this post, but just wanted to post my thoughts on pure shooters. We wasted a pick on Corey. I like the kid. But we wasted the pick. I think the Raptors wasted the pick in Dick. The Lakers wasted the pick on Knecht. Just IMO.

Oh I'm right there with you on Corey, when we made that pick, us, our going nowhere team, tried to get a walk, not even try to swing for a double, in a draft where we had no elite anything, I was tearing my hair out, by the Johnny Davis pick good lord, but honestly the Davis pick had more to recommend it: guy came off an all everything year, was young, Big 10 Player of the Year, every analyst had him in their top 10-12, I didn't want him, but at least I understood it. Kispert was a pick a team like Boston, Milwaukee, Denver, the LA's, Golden State post Klay could justify, but wtf did we need Kispert for when we had no first option, second option or 3rd? Always utterly asinine.

Now I happen to think Kon is definitely more than Kispert, 1000% more valuable than Kispert, but I agree with/the fundamental philosophy behind your dislike, which sounds like mine as well: this guy is literally NEVER going to be an elite player, there is literally 0-1% chance he's ever close to all NBA, first, second or 3rd. He's a luxury pick that a team like the Spurs or OKC or Houston could justify, just fitting a role there with a guy they know isn't going to bust, but if you are a bottom 5-10 team in the league, you flat out cannot afford to draft a player that has about a 3-5% chance of ever putting together one "top 3 player on a great team" season. It's lunacy. To me, philosophically, if you suck, you should be swinging out of your shoes on draft night, because you only win in this league if you have multiple mega studs period. the other method (balanced team with no great players but every position manned by solid to good players wins titles or makes conference finals basically 1 out of every 8-12 years tops)...So I'm with you, philosophically, I think I just saw enough from Kon to believe that he can be a + starter, maybe even good, I just see no chance whatsoever at "great" which is why nobody should be taking him that high, to me anyway.

If this were the case, he would be the GOAT prospect and worthy of a #1 pick.

Well call it hyperbole then, it's my way simply underlining that he's definitely more versatile, and carried a lot more utility than I think Kispert does or did.

[PaulinVA]

Read on Twitter

[jangles86]

Does anyone see Acr Bailey as a better prospect as what Brandon Miller was?

[dobrojim]

Newell & Fleming are two guys I like the least. Asa is PF sized in a C's body with C skill and Fleming's overall feel just scares me - although I do admit that can improve over time.

'nique couldn't beat Bird but he was a HoFer. If we got a HoFer with the 6th pick, that would be pretty schweet.
As long as we also still kept our '26 FRP.

The Wizards are going to have outright throw games in order to tank if McCollum and Middleton start. Even Olynyk will help Sarr a bunch.

Add Dominique Wilkins, err, Aurelius Bailey, and they're a 40-win team.

An 18/19 yo kid is not going to add many wins.

[nate33]

My guess is that one or two of our four veterans will be moved before the start of the season. It’s nice to have a couple of expiring contracts next summer, but we don’t need 100 million in cap room.

[tontoz]

Does anyone see Acr Bailey as a better prospect as what Brandon Miller was?

I wasn't following the draft that year but my view of Miller is that he has a higher floor. Ceiling would probably be fairly close.

[NatP4]

Sort of weird that it’s being leaked a hour before the draft that the Wizards attended a workout with Ace.

[trast66]

Does anyone see Acr Bailey as a better prospect as what Brandon Miller was?

Miller was 20 years old as freshman. Miller had better handles and decision making but older. Ace is off the charts athletic. Similar type players of course. Ace a bit of a project only 18 but if there hope he is the pick.

[AFM]

45 minutes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FCK!!!!!!!!!!

[AFM]

Watch on YouTube

[Gig18]

Sort of weird that it’s being leaked a hour before the draft that the Wizards attended a workout with Ace.

That could be Ace's management. Just read on Hoopshype that the Pelicans are pushing hard to trade up to pick him. And he may want Washington. Weird world, huh?

[closg00]

FWIW, Kevin has these players ranked above Ace Bailey

1. Cooper Flagg
2. Dylan Harper
3. Kon Knueppel
4. Collin Murray-Boyles
5. VJ Edgecome
6. Asa Newell
7. Khaman Maluach
8. Jase Richardson
9.Tre Johnson
10. Noa Essengue

[80sballboy]

Read on Twitter