Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[Jimmy Recard]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHsSCFGIw4M[/youtube]

[MDStar]

Two takeaways from the interview with Porter:

1) When Jalen said that people tend to forget that some of these guys are actually student athletes and don't have allday to work on thier games. I agree with this statement. Of course there are those one and done players, who probably don't spend a lot of time in class or studying, but im sure guys like Porter, Olynyk, McCollum, spend a considerable amount of time away from the court, dealing with school stuff.

2) That he played center in HS and never played on the wing. I'm sure that theres a lot of truth to that statement, which points to the fact that even though he's already the #1 SF in the years draft, that he still is very green in the position.

[pancakes3]

If Porter is in the gym right now, there's only 1 shot that matters most out of all other shots in his arsenal - the corner 3. I highly doubt that there will be many offensive sets with Wall and Beal in the wings and we're counting on Porter iso-ing and being forced to shoot of the dribble.

[Kanyewest]

From Jonathan Givony mock draft via yahoosports.com

3. Washington Wizards
Otto Porter (SF, 19, 6-8, 198, Georgetown, sophomore): Otto Porter is reportedly the prospect the Wizards have honed in early as being the best fit for the team. He had a poor workout in Washington this past week, looking somewhat out of shape as he hadn't done much basketball activity since losing in the NCAA tournament three months ago. Still, he fits a clear positional need and can fit in seamlessly next to the Wizards' starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. He also brings many of the intangibles in terms of character, basketball IQ and work ethic the front office has come to realize they were sorely lacking in the past few years.

http://sports.yahoo.com/photos/nba-mock ... ncaab.html

[tontoz]

Beal's rebound rate of 6.7 was tied for 24th among 2s.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinge ... eboundRate

That is respectable for an undersized rookie but i dont think we can assume that Beal will be able to make up the difference for a weak rebounding frontcourt player.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Interesting non-Deng commentary from http://www.grantland.com:

No matter what roles Wall or Beal played (both came off the bench for a few games), the Wizards posted a point differential of plus-4.84, the equivalent of a 55-win team over a full season. And though a 25-game stretch isn’t something Washington can hang its hat on, it’s certainly an encouraging sign. That trio, combined with Nene and Emeka Okafor, also combined to form the league's most effective five-man unit that played at least 140 minutes together, per NBA.com.

Unlike some of the more desperate teams, Washington doesn’t necessarily need to hit a home run at the top of the draft, but to break through from mid-standings irrelevance, the Wizards probably have to avoid coming up empty. If the team can get an impact player with the third pick while also finding a competent backup point guard with one of its second-round picks, the Wizards have the opportunity to completely change the course of their franchise. No pressure, right?

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... -nba-draft

This just made me realize something. I knew this before, but I guess this is the first time I'm really analyzing the potential implications...

So we have this lineup of Wall/Beal/Webster/Nene/Okafor that has been VERY VERY good. But, if we draft Porter (as most suspect), and re-sign Webster (as most suspect), how are the minutes divided? We've talked about this plenty before, and it's clear that there's a way to divide the minutes between Webster/Porter/Ariza, with all 3 players getting 20-26 MPG. But most of those scenarios involved Ariza/Porter sliding to be a small ball 4 at times, but mainly, for Webster to get most of his minutes as the backup SG.

Now, that works out, and makes sense, BUT, what does it mean for that killer starting lineup that we already have with Webster at the 3? Do we just abandon it? Do we only run with that group for 5-10 minutes per game tops? I'm concerned we'll just abandon that 5 man lineup for the most part, with Ariza/Porter subbing in there for Webster. That lineup should be pretty good too, although I don't think it will be AS GOOD as it was with Webster there instead spacing the floor and shooting lights out from the corner 3.

Worth considering...

I think drafting Porter is NOT the best move.

Draft Olynyk and Karasev instead.

Karasev will exceed all expectations. He might be better than Porter. Karasev won't disrupt continuity by running off Webster or contract year Ariza, because Karasev won't start immediately.

Olynyk is by FAR the most efficient post scorer. He will be a playoff scorer who brings Brad Miller/Luis Scola skill. Forget about athleticism--dude puts the ball in the basket!

In round 2 pick Wolters, Canaan, McCallum (I have a very good feeling that he's massively underrated, like Karasev) or Siva.

Otto Porter is a great prospect but I think Karasev with Olynyk in a trade down would be twice as good.

People who want Bennett should consider Olynyk's points in the paint at PF in the NBA.

[stevemcqueen1]

If Porter is in the gym right now, there's only 1 shot that matters most out of all other shots in his arsenal - the corner 3. I highly doubt that there will be many offensive sets with Wall and Beal in the wings and we're counting on Porter iso-ing and being forced to shoot of the dribble.

He'll need escape dribbles and the ability to put the ball down and score when defenders close out hard on him or else he'll be easy to defend.

[Rafael122]

From Jonathan Givony mock draft via yahoosports.com

3. Washington Wizards
Otto Porter (SF, 19, 6-8, 198, Georgetown, sophomore): Otto Porter is reportedly the prospect the Wizards have honed in early as being the best fit for the team. He had a poor workout in Washington this past week, looking somewhat out of shape as he hadn't done much basketball activity since losing in the NCAA tournament three months ago. Still, he fits a clear positional need and can fit in seamlessly next to the Wizards' starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. He also brings many of the intangibles in terms of character, basketball IQ and work ethic the front office has come to realize they were sorely lacking in the past few years.

http://sports.yahoo.com/photos/nba-mock ... ncaab.html

Read that, then looked at his combine measurements and he has 6.7% body fat. He's 197 pounds. And DX is the only one reporting that he had a poor workout.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Here's my issue with taking Bennett with the 3rd pick: why not trade back with the T'Wolves and get the 9th pick, possibly the 26th pick as well, and Derrick Williams, who is clearly a very similar player to Bennett?

I understand that the people in the pro-Bennett camp probably think Bennett is going to be much better than D-Will at the NBA level, which would change your perspective on such a trade down, but honestly, what makes you guys think that Bennett will be significantly better than D-Will in the NBA? Why was D-Will such a disappointment, but Bennett won't fall into the same trap?

I'm of a similar opinion. I'd rather get D-Will and draft Adams.

I still don't think either Bennett or D-Will are starters in the NBA though. At least not without an elite defensive minded C to back them up.

We have a solid defensive minded center right now. What we don't have is elite offense in the front court. I don't think Dwill has either the handles or explosiveness of Bennett. And if I was trading back to #9, Adams is a project, not an elite defensive presence. You'd be better off drafting Zeller there, but then you'd want someone other than Dwill in the exchange.

Olynyk is the most elite big man scorer entering the draft. If Zeller starts draining NBA threes then he is.

The smartest thing Washington could do IMO would be trade down for D Will, Olynyk and a pick which could get Wolters, Karasev, or Franklin.

Bring mature, proficient scoring talent and give those guys time off the bench to grow to stardom.

I am convinced people are sleeping on Olynyk, Wolters, Franklin, and Karasev. (Add Zeke Marshall and Ray Mccallum to the underrated list.)

Make value picks that fill needs.

[Rafael122]

Interesting non-Deng commentary from http://www.grantland.com:

No matter what roles Wall or Beal played (both came off the bench for a few games), the Wizards posted a point differential of plus-4.84, the equivalent of a 55-win team over a full season. And though a 25-game stretch isn’t something Washington can hang its hat on, it’s certainly an encouraging sign. That trio, combined with Nene and Emeka Okafor, also combined to form the league's most effective five-man unit that played at least 140 minutes together, per NBA.com.

Unlike some of the more desperate teams, Washington doesn’t necessarily need to hit a home run at the top of the draft, but to break through from mid-standings irrelevance, the Wizards probably have to avoid coming up empty. If the team can get an impact player with the third pick while also finding a competent backup point guard with one of its second-round picks, the Wizards have the opportunity to completely change the course of their franchise. No pressure, right?

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... -nba-draft

This just made me realize something. I knew this before, but I guess this is the first time I'm really analyzing the potential implications...

So we have this lineup of Wall/Beal/Webster/Nene/Okafor that has been VERY VERY good. But, if we draft Porter (as most suspect), and re-sign Webster (as most suspect), how are the minutes divided? We've talked about this plenty before, and it's clear that there's a way to divide the minutes between Webster/Porter/Ariza, with all 3 players getting 20-26 MPG. But most of those scenarios involved Ariza/Porter sliding to be a small ball 4 at times, but mainly, for Webster to get most of his minutes as the backup SG.

Now, that works out, and makes sense, BUT, what does it mean for that killer starting lineup that we already have with Webster at the 3? Do we just abandon it? Do we only run with that group for 5-10 minutes per game tops? I'm concerned we'll just abandon that 5 man lineup for the most part, with Ariza/Porter subbing in there for Webster. That lineup should be pretty good too, although I don't think it will be AS GOOD as it was with Webster there instead spacing the floor and shooting lights out from the corner 3.

Worth considering...

I think drafting Porter is NOT the best move.

Draft Olynyk and Karasev instead.

Karasev will exceed all expectations. He might be better than Porter. Karasev won't disrupt continuity by running off Webster or contract year Ariza, because Karasev won't start immediately.

Olynyk is by FAR the most efficient post scorer. He will be a playoff scorer who brings Brad Miller/Luis Scola skill. Forget about athleticism--dude puts the ball in the basket!

In round 2 pick Wolters, Canaan, McCallum (I have a very good feeling that he's massively underrated, like Karasev) or Siva.

Otto Porter is a great prospect but I think Karasev with Olynyk in a trade down would be twice as good.

People who want Bennett should consider Olynyk's points in the paint at PF in the NBA.

Unless Webster agrees to become a back up two guard or Wittman becomes creative with the lineup, I don't see how they bring Webster back. Porter is making $4 mil off the bat, Ariza probably won't get traded unless the Wizards fall out of contention by the trade deadline. There's no room. He had a solid season, but he wants to get paid, so go and get paid.

[Dark Faze]

Webster would be our starter until the all-star break or so when Porter would take the spot over. Webster and Ariza would make a great bench duo provided we have a fascilitator for those guys at the 1.

The problem with Olynyk and Bennett is that instead of building on our strenghts we immediately go to improving our weakness. You think that you need better offense and all of a sudden Webster goes down with an injury and Ernie makes a dumb trade of Ariza for Butler and all of a sudden you have a rotation of injury prone Caron and terrible Chris Singleton at the most important position defensively for your perimeter game.

[stevemcqueen1]

I too like Wolters and McCallum as second rounders to fill the third guard role. I like Pierre Jackson too.

I'm not interested in any of these soft unathletic long range shooting bigs like Murphy, Kelly, and Muscala. I don't think any of them see the floor in the playoffs. I don't like Olynyk either.

I like Withey and Dieng if we're going to target a big later but I assume they're first rounders and we'll probably have to trade up for them. Gobert is another option I suppose but I don't know anything about him.

I like Shane Larkin too but he looks like a first rounder and I wouldn't trade up for a PG.

I am intrigued by Tony Mitchell but I can see him being an utter bust.

I think Archie Goodwin could be interesting as a long term project somewhere in the second. He'd be a lotto ticket. But I'm not sure what we'd do with him in the meantime.

Isaiah Caanan is OK and he's got a bankable NBA skill with his shooting. I'd be alright picking him.

I wouldn't mind Reggie Bullock in the second either, he's OK. I'd rather draft him and play him up at PF occasionally than take Murphy or Kelly. I'm curious about Grant Jerrett but I wouldn't draft him.

I like Richard Howell with the late second just for his one bankable NBA skill with the rebounding.

Not really interested in Erik Green. Not interested in Plumlee or any of the Duke players really.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Webster killed it this season. He was a great mentor to Beal and Wall. The guy is inspirational. His ORTG 115 and his WS/48 .138 both were team highs.

They need him back IMO.

[Dark Faze]

I don't think Webster is going to demand much of a contract, his injury woes are way too substantial and even long term, healthy guys like Mayo are only getting 4 million on the market.

I'd love to keep him as a backup.

[mhd]

I honestly don't want porter. I'd rather take Len, mclemore, or oladipo over him. Is rather do the swill trade down and take zeller, shabaaz, or olynyk over him

[Severn Hoos]

From Jonathan Givony mock draft via yahoosports.com

3. Washington Wizards
Otto Porter (SF, 19, 6-8, 198, Georgetown, sophomore): Otto Porter is reportedly the prospect the Wizards have honed in early as being the best fit for the team. He had a poor workout in Washington this past week, looking somewhat out of shape as he hadn't done much basketball activity since losing in the NCAA tournament three months ago. Still, he fits a clear positional need and can fit in seamlessly next to the Wizards' starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. He also brings many of the intangibles in terms of character, basketball IQ and work ethic the front office has come to realize they were sorely lacking in the past few years.

http://sports.yahoo.com/photos/nba-mock ... ncaab.html

Read that, then looked at his combine measurements and he has 6.7% body fat. He's 197 pounds. And DX is the only one reporting that he had a poor workout.

in the past, Ernie has been kind of ham-handed with "leaks" coming out of Wiz workouts and his attempts to manage those leaks (remember the Pecherov/Armstrong workout?). If the information has "leaked" that Porter had a bad workout, it's a pretty good bet it was actually a good one, and Ernie's trying - in his own clumsy way - to trick everyone else into thinking we're not interested.

[sfam]

Webster killed it this season. He was a great mentor to Beal and Wall. The guy is inspirational. His ORTG 115 and his WS/48 .138 both were team highs.

They need him back IMO.

Agreed. But that makes far less sense if we draft a SF or SG/part time SF. If we draft big men up-front, or a combo guard, Webster is almost assured to come back.

[Upper Decker]

From Jonathan Givony mock draft via yahoosports.com



http://sports.yahoo.com/photos/nba-mock ... ncaab.html

Read that, then looked at his combine measurements and he has 6.7% body fat. He's 197 pounds. And DX is the only one reporting that he had a poor workout.

in the past, Ernie has been kind of ham-handed with "leaks" coming out of Wiz workouts and his attempts to manage those leaks (remember the Pecherov/Armstrong workout?). If the information has "leaked" that Porter had a bad workout, it's a pretty good bet it was actually a good one, and Ernie's trying - in his own clumsy way - to trick everyone else into thinking we're not interested.

I don't remember the Pecherov/Armstrong rumors, do tell!

One things for sure, EG has tipped his hand before the draft several times. In 2006, Chad Ford had the Pecherov pick nailed weeks in advance. In 2011 the Wiz were linked to Vesely for years. In 2012 it was beyond evident that the Wiz were targeting Beal, however, I won't totally pin that one on EG as it was somewhat of a no brainer. It seems like 2013 is a lot like 2012, without the suspense of whose going #2.

[dobrojim]

I think we've talked about Bennett at length. What more is there really to say?

And Porter and Len and DIpo and Zeller and Adams and Olynyk and probably a few more.

Not a whole lot that is new being said about any of these guys.

A ways back, I liked (and1'd) the post by Rockymac about positive contributors.
We need another positive contributor.

[sfam]

I'm of a similar opinion. I'd rather get D-Will and draft Adams.

I still don't think either Bennett or D-Will are starters in the NBA though. At least not without an elite defensive minded C to back them up.

We have a solid defensive minded center right now. What we don't have is elite offense in the front court. I don't think Dwill has either the handles or explosiveness of Bennett. And if I was trading back to #9, Adams is a project, not an elite defensive presence. You'd be better off drafting Zeller there, but then you'd want someone other than Dwill in the exchange.

Olynyk is the most elite big man scorer entering the draft. If Zeller starts draining NBA threes then he is.

The smartest thing Washington could do IMO would be trade down for D Will, Olynyk and a pick which could get Wolters, Karasev, or Franklin.

Bring mature, proficient scoring talent and give those guys time off the bench to grow to stardom.

I am convinced people are sleeping on Olynyk, Wolters, Franklin, and Karasev. (Add Zeke Marshall and Ray Mccallum to the underrated list.)

Make value picks that fill needs.

Bennett has legit 3 scoring and is an elite athlete who can drive. He can't touch Olynyk's post-up moves, but I like him lots better as an offensive force in the NBA. The problem with trading back by getting DWill and then picking Olynyk is we lose our inside D. Olynyk only works if partnered with a defensive-minded PF - the reverse holds true for Bennett and DWill. If we get DWill it might make better sense taking a risk on an Adams or even getting MCW to shore up the backup PG spot. Unless of course we see Olynyk as a clear all-star, which I'm not seeing right now.