Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

[payitforward]

I agree with nate -- Trier has been quite a pleasant surprise for an undrafted guy but that's as far as it goes. Knox has been godawful. Smith has been a disappointment. Actually Dotson has been the best player of the bunch.

I would certainly be pleased w/ the trade nate outlines! Whether they'd give them is a question, but that's exactly the right kind of assets to seek.

[Ruzious]

If I were trading Beal to New York, I would want
DSJ
2019 NY 1st (assuming #2-4)
2021 DAL 1st
2019 NY 2nd
2020 CHA 2nd
whatever filler they wanted to include based on their cap constraints (probably Ntilikina)

All this is predicated on Dallas landing Durant and another good free agent, so NY would be going all in on a Big Three, giving us leverage to negotiate a real good deal.

Definitely, if you can make that trade, do it. It all starts with DSJ and the nix pick, and request more goodies. And Ntilikian might have a nice future - he's still just 20 and has great defensive ability - though his stats are mostly putrid. The trade also saves Washington a lot of money. I'd prefer the NY 2021 1st over Dalas' since NY is bound to bleep up, and Dallas always seems to know what they're doing.

[nate33]

If I were trading Beal to New York, I would want
DSJ
2019 NY 1st (assuming #2-4)
2021 DAL 1st
2019 NY 2nd
2020 CHA 2nd
whatever filler they wanted to include based on their cap constraints (probably Ntilikina)

All this is predicated on Dallas landing Durant and another good free agent, so NY would be going all in on a Big Three, giving us leverage to negotiate a real good deal.

Definitely, if you can make that trade, do it. It all starts with DSJ and the nix pick, and request more goodies. And Ntilikian might have a nice future - he's still just 20 and has great defensive ability - though his stats are mostly putrid. The trade also saves Washington a lot of money. I'd prefer the NY 2021 1st over Dalas' since NY is bound to bleep up, and Dallas always seems to know what they're doing.

I'm assuming the Knicks make this trade after already locking up Durant and one more free agent (maybe Kemba?). Even if NY is prone to screwing up, it's hard to screw up with a lineup featuring Kemba, Beal and Durant playing in the East. That's why I was going for the Dallas pick. I figure the West is always a bloodbath so there's at least the possibility that Dallas slips up and finishes 9th in the conference.

[Ruzious]

If I were trading Beal to New York, I would want
DSJ
2019 NY 1st (assuming #2-4)
2021 DAL 1st
2019 NY 2nd
2020 CHA 2nd
whatever filler they wanted to include based on their cap constraints (probably Ntilikina)

All this is predicated on Dallas landing Durant and another good free agent, so NY would be going all in on a Big Three, giving us leverage to negotiate a real good deal.

Definitely, if you can make that trade, do it. It all starts with DSJ and the nix pick, and request more goodies. And Ntilikian might have a nice future - he's still just 20 and has great defensive ability - though his stats are mostly putrid. The trade also saves Washington a lot of money. I'd prefer the NY 2021 1st over Dalas' since NY is bound to bleep up, and Dallas always seems to know what they're doing.

I'm assuming the Knicks make this trade after already locking up Durant and one more free agent (maybe Kemba?). Even if NY is prone to screwing up, it's hard to screw up with a lineup featuring Kemba, Beal and Durant playing in the East. That's why I was going for the Dallas pick. I figure the West is always a bloodbath so there's at least the possibility that Dallas slips up and finishes 9th in the conference.

Yeah, I'd be very happy to get either pick. Honestly, I think DSJ and their pick (I'd prefer Barrett over Morant, btw) would be a good return for Beal. Anything added to it is gravy.

[Shoe]

Wizards aren't trading Beal anytime soon. Shooting guard is shallow in talent, and his skills are desired enough where every contender could use him in 2021, and he'll net multiple 1sts at that trade deadline. The Clippers got Shamet, 2020 1st, 2021 1st and 2 seconds for 4 months of Tobias Harris. Some team in 2021 will be desperate enough to trade a haul of assets for 4 months of an unselfish all-star who can shoot the 3.

[Ruzious]

Wizards aren't trading Beal anytime soon. Shooting guard is shallow in talent, and his skills are desired enough where every contender could use him in 2021, and he'll net multiple 1sts at that trade deadline. The Clippers got Shamet, 2020 1st, 2021 1st and 2 seconds for 4 months of Tobias Harris. Some team in 2021 will be desperate enough to trade a haul of assets for 4 months of an unselfish all-star who can shoot the 3.

But why wait 2 extra years to start the full rebuild? There's little chance that Beal's trade value will ever be significantly more than it is now, and it's more likely that it'll decrease. We've already seen what injuries have done to Wall's value.

[Shoe]

Wizards aren't trading Beal anytime soon. Shooting guard is shallow in talent, and his skills are desired enough where every contender could use him in 2021, and he'll net multiple 1sts at that trade deadline. The Clippers got Shamet, 2020 1st, 2021 1st and 2 seconds for 4 months of Tobias Harris. Some team in 2021 will be desperate enough to trade a haul of assets for 4 months of an unselfish all-star who can shoot the 3.

But why wait 2 extra years to start the full rebuild? There's little chance that Beal's trade value will ever be significantly more than it is now, and it's more likely that it'll decrease. We've already seen what injuries have done to Wall's value.

I can't see Ted rebuilding the same year he turns Capital One arena into a sports betting hub. I imagine his goal for the Wizards is to be competitive every year, getting people into the arena and hooked on betting. They probably hope Wall will be back by the all-star break, and him and Beal will get at least two home games in the playoffs where casual fans are more willing to try gambling for the first time.

19-20 season might be premature for this, I don't know the status of Monumental Sports betting app, but I can't see a likable young all-star like Beal being traded. I think they want to sign him when his extension comes up.

[Dat2U]

Wizards aren't trading Beal anytime soon. Shooting guard is shallow in talent, and his skills are desired enough where every contender could use him in 2021, and he'll net multiple 1sts at that trade deadline. The Clippers got Shamet, 2020 1st, 2021 1st and 2 seconds for 4 months of Tobias Harris. Some team in 2021 will be desperate enough to trade a haul of assets for 4 months of an unselfish all-star who can shoot the 3.

But why wait 2 extra years to start the full rebuild? There's little chance that Beal's trade value will ever be significantly more than it is now, and it's more likely that it'll decrease. We've already seen what injuries have done to Wall's value.

I can't see Ted rebuilding the same year he turns Capital One arena into a sports betting hub. I imagine his goal for the Wizards is to be competitive every year, getting people into the arena and hooked on betting. They probably hope Wall will be back by the all-star break, and him and Beal will get at least two home games in the playoffs where casual fans are more willing to try gambling for the first time.

19-20 season might be premature for this, I don't know the status of Monumental Sports betting app, but I can't see a likable young all-star like Beal being traded. I think they want to sign him when his extension comes up.

I would be surprised if they could coax two home playoff games out of this group without making a major move.

This is not a playoff team as currently constructed and only Beal, Brown, Howard, Mahinmi & Wall signed through next season. That means re-signing basically everyone just to likely be a 10th seed. It's not like they cap space to try to put something around Beal.

What I am afraid of is Ernie using our upcoming draft pick & Mahinmi and/or Howard to "upgrade" the roster with a veteran. I'm beginning to think there is a real chance this can happen.

[Shoe]

But why wait 2 extra years to start the full rebuild? There's little chance that Beal's trade value will ever be significantly more than it is now, and it's more likely that it'll decrease. We've already seen what injuries have done to Wall's value.

I can't see Ted rebuilding the same year he turns Capital One arena into a sports betting hub. I imagine his goal for the Wizards is to be competitive every year, getting people into the arena and hooked on betting. They probably hope Wall will be back by the all-star break, and him and Beal will get at least two home games in the playoffs where casual fans are more willing to try gambling for the first time.

19-20 season might be premature for this, I don't know the status of Monumental Sports betting app, but I can't see a likable young all-star like Beal being traded. I think they want to sign him when his extension comes up.

I would be surprised if they could coax two home playoff games out of this group without making a major move.

This is not a playoff team as currently constructed and only Beal, Brown, Howard, Mahinmi & Wall signed through next season. That means re-signing basically everyone just to likely be a 10th seed. It's not like they cap space to try to put something around Beal.

What I am afraid of is Ernie using our upcoming draft pick & Mahinmi and/or Howard to "upgrade" the roster with a veteran. I'm beginning to think there is a real chance this can happen.

It's hard to be out of the playoff race in the East. I'm not saying they're going to make it, but they'll be within reach of the 8th seed for most of the year. Yep the 7th pick is far down enough for them to consider trading it. Lou Williams>? Just need a Chris McUllough type added to any deal to tell the fanbase they got a first round talent

[DCZards]

I can't see Ted rebuilding the same year he turns Capital One arena into a sports betting hub. I imagine his goal for the Wizards is to be competitive every year, getting people into the arena and hooked on betting. They probably hope Wall will be back by the all-star break, and him and Beal will get at least two home games in the playoffs where casual fans are more willing to try gambling for the first time.

19-20 season might be premature for this, I don't know the status of Monumental Sports betting app, but I can't see a likable young all-star like Beal being traded. I think they want to sign him when his extension comes up.

I would be surprised if they could coax two home playoff games out of this group without making a major move.

This is not a playoff team as currently constructed and only Beal, Brown, Howard, Mahinmi & Wall signed through next season. That means re-signing basically everyone just to likely be a 10th seed. It's not like they cap space to try to put something around Beal.

What I am afraid of is Ernie using our upcoming draft pick & Mahinmi and/or Howard to "upgrade" the roster with a veteran. I'm beginning to think there is a real chance this can happen.

It's hard to be out of the playoff race in the East. I'm not saying they're going to make it, but they'll be within reach of the 8th seed for most of the year. Yep the 7th pick is far down enough for them to consider trading it. Lou Williams>?

I'm all-in for keeping Beal, but I'm also all-in for building around him with younger, cheaper pieces like Bryant, Sato, Brown, Robinson, possibly Dekker, Portis and/or Parker, and this year's first round draft pick.

So I'm hoping that EG and Co. don't do anything crazy like trading that pick for a stopgap veteran.

[Dat2U]

I can't see Ted rebuilding the same year he turns Capital One arena into a sports betting hub. I imagine his goal for the Wizards is to be competitive every year, getting people into the arena and hooked on betting. They probably hope Wall will be back by the all-star break, and him and Beal will get at least two home games in the playoffs where casual fans are more willing to try gambling for the first time.

19-20 season might be premature for this, I don't know the status of Monumental Sports betting app, but I can't see a likable young all-star like Beal being traded. I think they want to sign him when his extension comes up.

I would be surprised if they could coax two home playoff games out of this group without making a major move.

This is not a playoff team as currently constructed and only Beal, Brown, Howard, Mahinmi & Wall signed through next season. That means re-signing basically everyone just to likely be a 10th seed. It's not like they cap space to try to put something around Beal.

What I am afraid of is Ernie using our upcoming draft pick & Mahinmi and/or Howard to "upgrade" the roster with a veteran. I'm beginning to think there is a real chance this can happen.

It's hard to be out of the playoff race in the East. I'm not saying they're going to make it, but they'll be within reach of the 8th seed for most of the year. Yep the 7th pick is far down enough for them to consider trading it. Lou Williams>? Just need a Chris McUllough type added to any deal to tell the fanbase they got a first round talent

It's not that hard. Were doing our best to fall out of it right now. Keep in mind how much we've depended on aging vets Ariza & Green. Green has really been a surprise this year. Not a safe bet to assume both are resigned and could provide similar production.

This team doesn't have a clear 2nd best player after Beal. We can wax poetic about Portis & Parker but those were two guys Chicago were happy to dump and we gave up a damn good player in Porter. Now we needed to do it because of the financial issues but we got worse from that trade, not better.

When your talking the likes of Sato or Thomas Bryant as the 2nd best player on this team going forward, it's time to realize there's a significant talent deficiency on the roster.

[Dat2U]

I would be surprised if they could coax two home playoff games out of this group without making a major move.

This is not a playoff team as currently constructed and only Beal, Brown, Howard, Mahinmi & Wall signed through next season. That means re-signing basically everyone just to likely be a 10th seed. It's not like they cap space to try to put something around Beal.

What I am afraid of is Ernie using our upcoming draft pick & Mahinmi and/or Howard to "upgrade" the roster with a veteran. I'm beginning to think there is a real chance this can happen.

It's hard to be out of the playoff race in the East. I'm not saying they're going to make it, but they'll be within reach of the 8th seed for most of the year. Yep the 7th pick is far down enough for them to consider trading it. Lou Williams>?

I'm all-in for keeping Beal, but I'm also all-in for building around him with younger, cheaper pieces like Bryant, Sato, Brown, Robinson, possibly Dekker, Portis and/or Parker, and this year's first round draft pick.

So I'm hoping that EG and Co. don't do anything crazy like trading that pick for a stopgap veteran.

So you wanna keep Beal so we can win 30-35 games next season? Your ok with that?

[DCZards]

It's hard to be out of the playoff race in the East. I'm not saying they're going to make it, but they'll be within reach of the 8th seed for most of the year. Yep the 7th pick is far down enough for them to consider trading it. Lou Williams>?

I'm all-in for keeping Beal, but I'm also all-in for building around him with younger, cheaper pieces like Bryant, Sato, Brown, Robinson, possibly Dekker, Portis and/or Parker, and this year's first round draft pick.

So I'm hoping that EG and Co. don't do anything crazy like trading that pick for a stopgap veteran.

So you wanna keep Beal so we can win 30-35 games next season? Your ok with that?

No, I want to keep Beal and hope for the development of Bryant, Brown and this year's (and probably next year's) lottery pick. Yes, that may mean 30-35 wins next season (esp. with no Wall) but it could mean 45 wins the following season.

I know I'm in the minority, but I prefer that to trading Beal and blowing up the team...and winning 20-25 games the next 2-3 years while we wait (and hope) for a savior or two.

[nate33]

It's hard to be out of the playoff race in the East. I'm not saying they're going to make it, but they'll be within reach of the 8th seed for most of the year. Yep the 7th pick is far down enough for them to consider trading it. Lou Williams>?

I'm all-in for keeping Beal, but I'm also all-in for building around him with younger, cheaper pieces like Bryant, Sato, Brown, Robinson, possibly Dekker, Portis and/or Parker, and this year's first round draft pick.

So I'm hoping that EG and Co. don't do anything crazy like trading that pick for a stopgap veteran.

So you wanna keep Beal so we can win 30-35 games next season? Your ok with that?

With the new lottery process, I no longer think it's essential to bottom out as a 19-win team. Being a 19-win team may stick you with the 4th or 5th pick as easily as you get the #1 or #2 pick. And being a 32-win team still gets you deep into the lottery with a meaningful chance at a top 4 pick.

With that in mind, I think this rebuild can be done with Beal staying on the roster. I'm not opposed to trading him if we get good value in return, and I certainly would trade him if I felt he was going to bolt in free agency in two years. But keeping him on the roster is an option as well, if we're certain he'll stay (on a 30% max contract, not a 35% one). If we add a lotto pick this year and a lotto pick next year, this team can reload enough to be a playoff team. Beal is only 25. He's got 6 or 7 more prime years left.

Don't get me wrong, the team as currently constructed, with Beal as their best player or co-best player, won't ever have a chance at a title, but I'm convinced that management doesn't care one iota about winning a championship. All they want is their 2-6 home playoff games every year and they're happy.

[Illmatic12]

I'm all-in for keeping Beal, but I'm also all-in for building around him with younger, cheaper pieces like Bryant, Sato, Brown, Robinson, possibly Dekker, Portis and/or Parker, and this year's first round draft pick.

So I'm hoping that EG and Co. don't do anything crazy like trading that pick for a stopgap veteran.

So you wanna keep Beal so we can win 30-35 games next season? Your ok with that?

With the new lottery process, I no longer think it's essential to bottom out as a 19-win team. Being a 19-win team may stick you with the 4th or 5th pick as easily as you get the #1 or #2 pick. And being a 32-win team still gets you deep into the lottery with a meaningful chance at a top 4 pick.

With that in mind, I think this rebuild can be done with Beal staying on the roster. I'm not opposed to trading him if we get good value in return, and I certainly would trade him if I felt he was going to bolt in free agency in two years. But keeping him on the roster is an option as well, if we're certain he'll stay (on a 30% max contract, not a 35% one). If we add a lotto pick this year and a lotto pick next year, this team can reload enough to be a playoff team. Beal is only 25. He's got 6 or 7 more prime years left.

Don't get me wrong, the team as currently constructed, with Beal as their best player or co-best player, won't ever have a chance at a title, but I'm convinced that management doesn't care one iota about winning a championship. All they want is their 2-6 home playoff games every year and they're happy.

People aren't talking about the new lottery odds enough. It's going to massively change leaguewide strategy over the next few years, and I don't think fans have caught up to the new reality.

It used to be that you could shamelessly tank for the worst record and get a whopping 25% chance at the #1 pick (plus guaranteed top 4) . Now the worst record only gives you a 14% chance, and instead of being guaranteed a top 4 pick there's a 48% chance that you DON'T get a top 4 pick!

Imagine the Knicks , who purposely tanked their entire season in hopes of Zion, end up with the 5th-6th pick and a player like Jarrett Culver instead?? There is a 48% chance of that scenario happening, compared to only 14% chance that they successfully land Zion.

I'd invite anyone to hit "Sim the lottery" a few times and observe how often teams are jumping up/down by 4-6 spots:
http://www.tankathon.com/


It makes you realize that after a certain point, there's little marginal benefit to purposely tanking. Even if you field a competitive roster that barely misses the playoffs in the East, you still have a fairly strong shot at landing a decent pick.

Leonsis weirdly took a lot of flack on here for saying "we will never tank", some of you guys don't realize that he could very well have the last laugh if we stay in our current lotto position.

[Shoe]

I would be surprised if they could coax two home playoff games out of this group without making a major move.

This is not a playoff team as currently constructed and only Beal, Brown, Howard, Mahinmi & Wall signed through next season. That means re-signing basically everyone just to likely be a 10th seed. It's not like they cap space to try to put something around Beal.

What I am afraid of is Ernie using our upcoming draft pick & Mahinmi and/or Howard to "upgrade" the roster with a veteran. I'm beginning to think there is a real chance this can happen.

It's hard to be out of the playoff race in the East. I'm not saying they're going to make it, but they'll be within reach of the 8th seed for most of the year. Yep the 7th pick is far down enough for them to consider trading it. Lou Williams>? Just need a Chris McUllough type added to any deal to tell the fanbase they got a first round talent

It's not that hard. Were doing our best to fall out of it right now. Keep in mind how much we've depended on aging vets Ariza & Green. Green has really been a surprise this year. Not a safe bet to assume both are resigned and could provide similar production.

This team doesn't have a clear 2nd best player after Beal. We can wax poetic about Portis & Parker but those were two guys Chicago were happy to dump and we gave up a damn good player in Porter. Now we needed to do it because of the financial issues but we got worse from that trade, not better.

When your talking the likes of Sato or Thomas Bryant as the 2nd best player on this team going forward, it's time to realize there's a significant talent deficiency on the roster.

One of the reasons they dumped Otto was to re-sign Ariza and Green in the off-season. There's no evidence they want to rebuild, and there's just no way they are going to trade Beal two full years before his contract is up. Besides, Beal is a good representative for the Wizards, he's out there recruiting, he might've gotten EG fired. The earliest he's dealt is next years trade deadline, but 2020 off-season is probably the do or die with him demanding a trade.

[payitforward]

...I'm convinced that management doesn't care one iota about winning a championship. All they want is their 2-6 home playoff games every year and they're happy.

I wish they were even that ambitious! We have been in the playoffs 4 times over the last 10 years, & we aren't going to be in this year or next year either.

So... whether or not we trade Beal is not a key issue. The key issue, really simply, is whether we ever see the end of the Ernie Grunfeld era.

Understand how bad this guy is: .500 is the definition of average. If we were to win 50 games every season for the next 9 years -- something we've never done even once under Ernie -- we would not reach .500 under Ernie Grunfeld's management until the middle of that 9th season.

There can't be more than one or two other GMs as bad as that in the entire history of the NBA.

[penbeast0]

Anyone have access to a spreadsheet with GM info who can tell us who is the GM that is the most games under .500 in NBA history? I remember an article about coaches claiming Byron Scott was the WCOAT by this standard but I don't know if this has been done for GMs.

[montestewart]

Anyone have access to a spreadsheet with GM info who can tell us who is the GM that is the most games under .500 in NBA history? I remember an article about coaches claiming Byron Scott was the WCOAT by this standard but I don't know if this has been done for GMs.

Figure Elgin Baylor has to be up there somewhere

[queridiculo]

Anyone have access to a spreadsheet with GM info who can tell us who is the GM that is the most games under .500 in NBA history? I remember an article about coaches claiming Byron Scott was the WCOAT by this standard but I don't know if this has been done for GMs.

I'd love to see where Ernie rates at wins per dollar spent.

The Wizards under Ernie have to rate right at the bottom. Nobody quite manages to build 40 win teams with a bloated payroll like the Wizards do.