The Consiglieri wrote:The only thing that makes me wonder a bit is if part of this was about staggering the --- out of assets, in terms of contract terms and for flippability. I've to be frank, never understood how this cap, this apron, this that, that this and everything inbetween work. It's monstrously confusing and convoluted to me.
This is where they are showing diabolical smarts that are ahead of other teams. It is not simply about staggering assets, its about constantly getting an influx of new young talent.
The new CBA is set up to prevent teams from spending their way to championships. The more you spend over the cap, the more hamstrung you are in the moves you can make. You can't make 2-for-1 trades. Lose your mid-level exceptions etc. And the more consistently you exceed the cap, the harsher the financial penalties get. Like exponentially worse. At a certain point that means all expensive teams have to blow it up and bottom out. There is a detonator ticking down on any team that is 'all in' on wins.
Max contract superstars tend to be the best players in the league. Until they are not. Teams that win have to pay to retain their guys. Winners are pricey. If that team is good a long time, they likely have multiple guys who are in demand. One by one they have to reward them. Multiple max deals on a team. At the point at which they are no longer winning they then have to dump salary to escape the guillotine of those increasing penalties.
The Wiz braintrust learned from the OKC model who profit by keeping their cap clean so they can play the Bring Out Your Dead method by accepting highly paid ex-stars into their paysheet, along with future draft picks from the team who has to pay to dump them. We hold these contracts until they become expiring, at which point other teams will pay more picks to trade for them since it will give their own books a colonic when they expire.
Which means the Wiz get extra picks from teams that are struggling with past decisions and may be on the edge of a fall. Perhaps teams that have proven to mismanage their cap.
Picks are the goal. Productive draft picks on their first contract are the cheapest asset you can get. You are only guaranteed two draft picks per year. One first and one second. The OKC model says: nuh uh. Constantly trade for other teams' surplus picks. So that you always have extra swings at the pinata. If you trust your scouting and draft philosophy, you might luck into a gem even later in the first round.
Winger and Dawkins added a couple extra wrinkles. They collect 2nd round picks not to hoard them but to spend them. Trade up the draft ladder to increase your %'s at the margins. That is. The same way you and I have been arguing how important it is to stay afloat the tankstakes at the top of shxtheap, the Wiz brain trust make that a constant practice. The way nate argues that there is marginal difference between pick 5 and pick 6, the Wiz look at it the opposite way. They want to sift those marginal %'s in their favor and constantly climb up the draft chart because over time those marginal differences will work in their favor. To do so they freely spend 2nd round picks.
We shipped 2nd rd picks to move up to take Bilal.
Dropped surplus 2nd round ballast to ensure we got Kyshawn.
In our trade deadline moves this year we sent out two 2nd rounders to get back a (retroactive) 2024 1st round pick (AJJ), future 1st rounders, and pick swaps.
That pick swap deal is a potential secret weapon. The Stepien rule prevents stupid teams from sending consecutive 1st round picks and mortgaging their future entirely. However, a pick swap keeps their thumb on the scale. Stupid teams don't care about future picks because they are desperate for immediate return. If you can afford to take the long view you can feast on their shortsightedness. I've banged the drum on the topic ever since the Beal trade, but a pick swap dumps all of their lotto combos into your hopper. If they miss the playoffs, you instantly have extra lottery tickets. Even if you win the championship, you still have lotto chances. Nate is right that the worst team rarely wins the top pick. The Wiz often have been stung by a bad bounce even with a worse record. We missed Wemby by one number. With pick swaps that's fine, it means on the odds chart we get to add all of the other teams numbers to our own. Even if they have a better record.
So. Even if we land franchise players and suddenly start doing well, we still have a chance to add new young talent in future years. And because picks are a zero sum game, every extra pick we land is one that another team lacks. Even if we win and our top talent gets pricey, we still have extra players coming up behind them. Cheaper replacements. Understudies. Depth and youth.
The other thing that seems to be a philosophy of theirs is to try to extend players early, on team friendly deals. Declining if possible. Flat if not. With option years under their control. Or non guaranteed $. That way if they break out, like Deni, they have a highly desirable asset. If they have a later career vet (Kuzma) the contract becomes easier to trade as the cost declines. More valuable to teams that are struggling to pay the bills. Sometimes it fails when a player who had been on an upward trajectory flatlines or regresses (Kispert). But in all, if you think your player may break out, extend them early before they become too expensive. Here it helps that they are drafting young. If players generally break out in their age 25 year, and you drafted them at 19, you may get a chance to re-up them at a bargain since they are extension eligible before they hit that break out age. Hopefully you keep them cheap.
At some point the players themselves become trade assets. Once you have a core of guys you like, you can shuffle the deck for roster balance and trade off surplus youth at redundant positions for other players that fit better. Or for a haul of 1st round picks later on, to reshuffle the deck in the future when your homegrown talent starts becoming too pricey to keep.
Their plan is to get good then always be good. Or at least have a chance. And to profit off of other teams poor decisions. We haven't yet seen it. But to me 2026 is the true test. Because PHX is primed to topple. And if we can hold on to a top 8 pick, then we get all of their lotto combos and all of our own. If we both end up bottom 4 we get a 100% chance at a top 4 pick, 80% of top 3, 55% of a top 2 pick, and double the chance at #1 overall. In a year that scouts expect to be historically good.
But yeah, or we could have Deni. And a chance to not land in the top 8. So the Penguin gets our pick. Shrug. Thanks Tommy, for that one year rental of Westbrook. That was fun.
(fun sarcasm of course given how much you love this thread).
(you know the answer to this question, sorry about the rhetorical nature)
Camara's defensive improvement has been something to watch. Jabari Walker has been really good during the win streak. Sharpe has improved.
but that's not his fault. (Though according to some of them, nothing was ever his fault). But whatever. If these next 2 drafts go like I hope, then 5 years from now I think we might be unbothered by the loss of Avdija. So, along the way I'm curious to see how it develops. So far I like many of the moves they've made.
