2012 NBA Draft

[Ruzious]

He's definitely more of a sure thing than Mourning when he came out. Mourning wasn't a freshman when he came out, and he still had a limited offensive game in college. It wasn't until he was in the NBA that he learned to shoot an open jump shot and showed the ability to deal with double-teams.

Wow, Ruz - that's a bold statement, but I don't think I can go there with you. In fact, I'm not entirely convinced that he's more of a sure thing than Zo was after his Freshman year.

As a Freshman, Zo blocked 169 shots - exactly 5 per game, and also exactly the same as Davis. (And Davis plays a few extra minutes per game, so per minute blocks goes to Zo.) Zo shot .603 FG% as a Freshman - not at Davis' .651, but also nothing to sneeze at. Davis shoots .706 FT%, Zo's Freshman FT% was not very good (.667), but he was up to nearly 80% for the rest of his college career. Rebounding is tough - Davis leads in both absolute and per minute terms compared to Zo's 1st year, although Z was well ahead by his Senior year (10.7 per game). Don't have advanced stats like PER and DReb%, so tough to compare beyond the glamour stats.

But by the time Zo was a Senior, virtually all of his stats (though not FG/EFG) eclipsed where Davis is now. More to the point, by then he had been doing it for 4 years, consistently. And - he had done it in a different era, when there were very few 1-and-dones. He went up against other players who were, on average, more mature - closer to 21 than to 18. It would be interesting to see how Davis would look if Kanter, DWill, Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins were all in the NCAAs. Would Davis still look like the runaway player of the year?

None of this is to knock Davis. I think he is far and away the #1 player in college, and the absolute no-brainer #1 pick. He is probably the best big man prospect to come out since.... yeah, maybe Duncan. But those historical standards are pretty high - not sure I'm ready to put him up there just yet.

And I'm not knocking Mourning, and I'm not saying that Davis will be as good as Mourning. Mourning's game expanded offensively quite a bit in the NBA. I think you might have cherry-picking a bit on his stats. Mourning's shot-blocking went from 169 to 069... and then to 55 before going back up to 160. His rebounding numbers were very pedestrian until his senior year. And he wasn't a big-time scorer until his senior year. Mourning's soph and junior years were really not at all spectacular.

[Ruzious]

So Drummond has a per over 20, great, the problem I see is his demeanor and or lack thereof. He's got no heart. Kid is talented for sure, but I wouldn't trust him, I wouldn't. You had coaches/teammates barking at him b/c he essentially quit in that one game a couple of weeks back. Last thing the Wizards need to do is babysit another player.

There's over-analysis of Drummond. He's still the second best prospect in the draft, imo. He's not super-intense, but I really don't see the uber negatives in his attitude that others apparently see. This is definitely not a Cousins type situation, for example. In general, it seems he's a good quiet kid, is unselfish, is really good on the break, has great defensive potential, and has skills that can be developed on offense. It'll take some time, but as long as he's in a decent situation in the NBA with an uselfish PG, he'll be fine.

Sleeper time - that's the most fun part of the draft - finding a player who hasn't been talked about a lot but will someday be a star. Has anyone mentioned Tony Mitchell from North Texas in the Sun Belt (not the Tony Mitchell on Alabama)? My apologies if someone has. He's like a poor man's Anthony Davis. He missed last season due to academic reasons, but he's still a 19 year old freshman. See his stats http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/players/110025 great rebounding/blocks/steals/shooting % numbers. He was also the top per minute rebounder in the entire Nike international Under 18 Tournament 2 years ago - which included Jonas V. Listed at 6'8 220 - the question is - How big is he going to be, and how long is he. Also notice - he's hit some 3's - at a good percentage. So, if he grows just an inch or so and fills out - this kid could shoot way up.

He's mentally fragile. We went through this with Kwame, why go through it again?

I assume you mean Drummond; not Mitchell. I don't suggest picking Drummond, because he's a project, and that's the last thing the Wiz need. But I do think he's the 2nd best prospect in the draft.

[Ruzious]

While Drummond's stats are okay, defenses don't guard him very much. On the majority of his points, he's wide-open. This is majorly negatively effectively UConn's offense as few of their guards can get open due to the lack of defensive attention on Drummond.

That's silly. If defenses really don't guard him (and they do), it'd be bacause the UConn guards are very unwilling passers - so you double the guard with the ball.

[Severn Hoos]

And I'm not knocking Mourning, and I'm not saying that Davis will be as good as Mourning. Mourning's game expanded offensively quite a bit in the NBA. I think you might have cherry-picking a bit on his stats. Mourning's shot-blocking went from 169 to 069... and then to 55 before going back up to 160. His rebounding numbers were very pedestrian until his senior year. And he wasn't a big-time scorer until his senior year. Mourning's soph and junior years were really not at all spectacular.

Definitely plead guilty to a bit of cherrypicking, but there's a huge mitigating factor when considering Mourning's Sophomore & Junior years. In fact, a 7'2 factor named Dikembe Mutombo. They started the same year, but Mutombo was an 11 minute per game relative unknown. Then, Mutombo broke out and played big minutes - pulling down 10.5 rebounds and 4.1 blocks, then and 12.2 and 4.7 before declaring after his/their Junior years.

So, for those two years, Zo was in effect out of position (PF instead of C), and had lesser reb/block stats because of Mutombo's presence. With Mutomobo gone for Zo's Senior year, he went back to the huge numbers (5 blocks per game, almost 11 boards per game). Plus, he averaged 21.3 points per game on 60% FG.

I'd have to call that guy - the 22 year old Zo, with 21/11/5 stats, and 4 years of college experience against better NCAA competition - a better prospect than the 18 year old Davis.

I still say the Freshman years are somewhat comparable (though I would give the edge to Davis), but if you're talking about better prospect/sure thing, Zo as a Senior wins every time.

I know, kind of a pointless argument I guess, but this pathetic excuse for a season will do that to you...

[Knighthonor]

I can't find any Mourning's highlights on YouTube. Can somebody help me out. I only see Heat videos when I put his name in the search

[truwizfan4evr]

please wizards have atleast the top 3 worst record in nba. where's dray when you need him. lol

[Ruzious]

Sev, as good as Zo was as a senior, it was about projecting him as an NBA player, and he was a 6'9/6'10 center prospect with no jump shot at the time and showed no signs of dealing with double-teams other than over-powering college players. If it was all about the college numbers, then Shelden Williams would be an NBA star. I'm not saying he wasn't a great prospect - but there were issues which he proved to overcome in the NBA.

[Severn Hoos]

Are we saying that Davis has a jump shot? According to statsheet, this is his breakdown:

Dunks 75/76
Tip ins 12/14
Layups 26/38
2 point shots 27/81
3 point shots 0/6
Total 140/215

They don't define "2 point shots" but I'd assume it's anything from 5 to 20 feet - hooks, floaters, and the occasional spot up jumper from 15'. He makes about 1 per game, shooting 33%. And this category accounts for less than 20% of his made baskets (80% are at the rim or dunks).

Again - aside from arguing just for the sport of it, I love Davis as a prospect. But I think it's revisionist history to say he is more of a sure thing (your original claim) than Zo was as a Senior. Maybe you can say he's a better prospect based on potential, but I wouldn't say more of a sure thing.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Why does it matter who has the better rookie year? Are we likely going to be championship contenders next season? We need to take the guy we think has the most upside and who's most likely to reach it. If Davis is available, you take him without looking back. He has a high ceiling, but a high floor also.

Quick fixing this is a guarantee of even worse results than the '04-'07 era and the '96-'98 and '86-'88 periods, because we wont be able to get players capable of changing the culture enough to become relevant, we'll only get guys that dont care about winning, so they're coming here to cash in. To get guys that care about winning we need to add the pieces to entice them and that WONT HAPPEN VIA FREE AGENCY, and it sure as hell aint happening by forcing a low ceiling and low floor pick. Sully over Davis would be beyond idiotic. I have no problem with being stuck with Sully at the 5-8 area if thats are fate, but if we're picking higher earlier we need to add culture changing pieces to help the rebuild.

A quick fix is a recipe for a disaster even worse than what we're already seeing. Be patient. This will never be built unless the team does this the right way, jettisoning the cancers, eating another contract if necessary for an extra pick, and utilizing this draft and the '13 draft and a little luck to build a contender by the end of '13-'14.

FIrst off, let's be clear. I've never advocated taking Sullinger with the #1 pick over Davis. My position all along if you've read all my posts on this subject has been to take Davis #1, but then "consider" trading down for Sully and another valuable piece if it was made available. IMO, Sully and another valuable piece(e.g., another #1) plus some key FA's this year would put us in the playoffs. I don't know how this approach would be taking a "quick fix" approach to building this team. If I was convinced that Sullinger was more Sweetney than Brand, then I could understnad. But everything about him, from the most polished low post game of any big man coming out, to his his intangibles, make me convinced that he is a more surefire pick to hit thte ground runnign for us as opposed to waiting a few years for Davis to develop an nba body and offense. And looking at the current makeup of our team, I just think he best fits the bill of what we truly need...

I think the sure fire pick for this team is Davis. Behind him I would pick Robinson. Robinson's work rate on the boards and his consistent domination of all top competition makes me think he's going to be a better NBA player than Sullinger.

What I like about Sullinger is that at 280, Jared can play some C. I like him to be a solid pro, but not a star. I also like that Sullinger is a year younger than Robinson and can improve physically. However, Sullinger has already missed games with IIRC a back concern. For that reason I hope he's not the Wizards pick. Robinson seems to be a better bet to succeed at the next level, but he is smallish. I worry about Sullinger's size and I don't think he's going to have a beast motor at the next level. But he will score well--perhaps very well.

As for Davis, I have no doubts that guy will be an absolute stud from day one.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

More on Robinson vs Sullinger. This post decidedly pro Sullinger.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... son-2.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ger-1.html

One area Sullinger has a huge advantage is in shooting the ball. His PER of 31.3 is terrific and so is his .631 TS%.

Honestly, lcc25, rather than looking for bad things to fear or say about Sullinger I think the Wizards should be HAPPY if they do get Sullinger in the draft. He's a guy that will score a ton inside. He's also got a reliable midrange game.

I like Robinson's defensive rebounding and his consistency against the best teams. However, Sullinger is probably going to be able to muscle and finesse his way to a lot of points in the NBA.

Also, unlike Robinson who has had to overcome a lot of family tragedy and adversity in DC, Sullinger is a coach's son and he had two older brothers play NCAA basketball. Here is a really good read on Jared Sullinger. His brothers are both 6'5". They beat on him early but knew Jared would be the best of the bunch.

http://ohiostate.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1099031

[dobrojim]

re Mourning - I tend to agree with Sev's take.

If Mourning hadn't been in the same draft as Shaq, he would
have been even more highly touted. He was a total stud
going back to when he was on the Olympic (tryout?) team in 88,
before he had even played in the NCAAs. A complete beast
and a man among boys until and even in the pros. Hated
all his post dunk preening and flexing but he was a force.

If AD is even close to what Mourning was, he is a franchise changer.

[Jazzfan12]

While Drummond's stats are okay, defenses don't guard him very much. On the majority of his points, he's wide-open. This is majorly negatively effectively UConn's offense as few of their guards can get open due to the lack of defensive attention on Drummond.

That's silly. If defenses really don't guard him (and they do), it'd be bacause the UConn guards are very unwilling passers - so you double the guard with the ball.

Not really because often when Drummmond gets it with a decent look, he either badly misses a layup that he takes instead of dunking to avoid contact or he passes it back to his teammates and often commits turnovers when passing.

[Severn Hoos]

Good to see PJIII came up big today.






Full disclosure: No, I did not see the game. But losing at home to an unranked opponent, fouling out with just 4 points and 6 rebounds, don't know any way to sugarcoat that...

[jivelikenice]

The last two games to me really crystallized what this team needs. A physically mature PF and a strong wing player (2 or 3) that can shoot and create off the dribble. When Young & Crawford are both off, we have no shot at winning. Unfortunately because they're both only effective when they're shot is dropping it happens a lot. Young is too weak with the ball and is just one dimensional. Crawford tries to attack the rim and shoot, but he's too weak to finish off his drives. One of those guys can stick around as a 6th man but that's it...

Robinson fits the mold at the 4....Not sure who fits the mold at the 2/3. maybe Barnes but every other wing player seems strong in only one area...

[The Consiglieri]

The last two games to me really crystallized what this team needs. A physically mature PF and a strong wing player (2 or 3) that can shoot and create off the dribble. When Young & Crawford are both off, we have no shot at winning. Unfortunately because they're both only effective when they're shot is dropping it happens a lot. Young is too weak with the ball and is just one dimensional. Crawford tries to attack the rim and shoot, but he's too weak to finish off his drives. One of those guys can stick around as a 6th man but that's it...

Robinson fits the mold at the 4....Not sure who fits the mold at the 2/3. maybe Barnes but every other wing player seems strong in only one area...

I think shooters with BBIQ is the most important need, but in the end, what I want will be two top 12 or so picks so we can land either MKG, or a big with a great motor (Davis, Robinson, Sully, Leonard, Henson, Moultrie probably in that order for now but with volatility possible and with Drummond floating around), and then with a second pick key on Beal, and the Lamb's, with a long range look at Terrence Jones simply because he's been devalued so heavily (the Walker deal?), that he actually may represent value at this point (getting him at 12 to 18). I dont know how we get a second high pick w/o a trade down though, i dont think someone will give us the pick. We'll see though. If we dont have a top 3 pick, id probably want to do that trade down anyway.

[dobrojim]

we must address defensive rebounding...the season has been typified by
games where we try to come back after falling way behind and not be
able to get a rebound to complete a defensive possession. Makes it really
tough to come back.

[Ruzious]

Are we saying that Davis has a jump shot? According to statsheet, this is his breakdown:

Dunks 75/76
Tip ins 12/14
Layups 26/38
2 point shots 27/81
3 point shots 0/6
Total 140/215

They don't define "2 point shots" but I'd assume it's anything from 5 to 20 feet - hooks, floaters, and the occasional spot up jumper from 15'. He makes about 1 per game, shooting 33%. And this category accounts for less than 20% of his made baskets (80% are at the rim or dunks).

Again - aside from arguing just for the sport of it, I love Davis as a prospect. But I think it's revisionist history to say he is more of a sure thing (your original claim) than Zo was as a Senior. Maybe you can say he's a better prospect based on potential, but I wouldn't say more of a sure thing.

You were right before - it's a pointless argument. I think what I see is just as important as stats. Maybe I'm wrong, but it's what I believe.

[Ruzious]

While Drummond's stats are okay, defenses don't guard him very much. On the majority of his points, he's wide-open. This is majorly negatively effectively UConn's offense as few of their guards can get open due to the lack of defensive attention on Drummond.

That's silly. If defenses really don't guard him (and they do), it'd be bacause the UConn guards are very unwilling passers - so you double the guard with the ball.

Not really because often when Drummmond gets it with a decent look, he either badly misses a layup that he takes instead of dunking to avoid contact or he passes it back to his teammates and often commits turnovers when passing.

Ok fine, it's not silly; it's just plain stupid. If he doesn't get guarded, he dunks the ball.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The last two games to me really crystallized what this team needs. A physically mature PF and a strong wing player (2 or 3) that can shoot and create off the dribble. When Young & Crawford are both off, we have no shot at winning. Unfortunately because they're both only effective when they're shot is dropping it happens a lot. Young is too weak with the ball and is just one dimensional. Crawford tries to attack the rim and shoot, but he's too weak to finish off his drives. One of those guys can stick around as a 6th man but that's it...

Robinson fits the mold at the 4....Not sure who fits the mold at the 2/3. maybe Barnes but every other wing player seems strong in only one area...

Here is a link to a GREAT site with pretty current scouting reports on MKG, Beal, and Quincy Miller. They have others on some of my favs like Scott Machado, Thomas Robinson, etc.

http://hoopprospect.com/category/scouting-reports/

[nate33]

What about John Jenkins as a 2nd round acquisition? He's an undersized shooting guard who is pretty much the best shooter in college basketball. He leads the NCAA's in 3P's made and shoots 44% from the 3-point range. He's the type of guy who might have a hard time carving out playing time on an ordinary roster, but could fit well alongside Wall because Wall can guard shooting guards.