2012 NBA Draft - Part II

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

You were all over Jeremy Lin. I KNOW you're right about Joerger, doc.

You're probably right about White, too, but I'm not with because I can see bad things happening if he freaks out on a plane. That, and the arrest thing sticks with me. His FTs tops it off, but he's not Andre Drummond out there.

I am curious about how he'll do, Doc.

[80sballboy]

You were all over Jeremy Lin. I KNOW you're right about Joerger, doc.

You're probably right about White, too, but I'm not with because I can see bad things happening if he freaks out on a plane. That, and the arrest thing sticks with me. His FTs tops it off, but he's not Andre Drummond out there.

I am curious about how he'll do, Doc.

Royce White is one of the most intriguing players in the draft. He's like a shorter, more athletic Oliver Miller. Not worth drafting top 10 because of his weak jump shot and fear of flying.

http://nbadraftroom2.blogspot.com/2012/ ... eport.html

[doclinkin]

You were all over Jeremy Lin.

In terms of value for pick here are my hits against misses. In some cases I count as a success any player still earning time in the league (unless I would have taken them earlier than their value). 2nd round players rarely make a roster, so any PT there is probably good.

Klay Thompson, Jeremy Tyler, Jonas Valanciunas, Faried, Chandler Parsons, Nikola Vucevic, Bismack (vs Kemba Walker, Justin Harper, Andrew Goudelock, Keith Benson).

Greg Monroe, Patrick Patterson, Seraphin, Booker, Greivis, (vs Larry Sanders, Quincy Pondexter, Damion James, Craig Brackins)

James Harden, Stef Curry, Ty Lawson, DJ Blair, Eric Maynor, Danny Green, (Vs James Johnson, Jeff Pendergraph, Nick Calathes, Jack McClinton)

Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, Roy Hibbert, Nico Batum, Mario Chalmers, Bill Walker (vs Brandon Rush, JR Giddens, Kyle Weaver)

Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes, Rudy Fernandez, Tiago Splitter, Marc Gasol, Dom McGuire, Ramon Sessions, Aaron Gray (vs Marco Bellinelli, Mo Almond, Nick Fazekas)

Brandon Roy, Ronnie Brewer, Rajon Rondo -- whom I would have taken instead of Pecherov since he was on the board-- Kyle Lowry -- who I liked almost as much as Rondo-- Jordan Farmar, Craig Smith, Milsapp, JJ Barea who I liked about as much as Lowry and Rondo. (vs Tyrus Thomas, Hilton Armstrong, Cedric Simmons, James White, Alexander Johnson, Guillermo Diaz, Yotam Halperin)

I do alright. At some point I'll have to reconstruct what my picks would have been given the players still on the board. Though in most cases my draft board would have said: 'trade down, take two of these'...

[Zonkerbl]

You were all over Jeremy Lin.

In terms of value for pick here are my hits against misses. In some cases I count as a success any player still earning time in the league (unless I would have taken them earlier than their value). 2nd round players rarely make a roster, so any PT there is probably good.

Klay Thompson, Jeremy Tyler, Jonas Valanciunas, Faried, Chandler Parsons, Nikola Vucevic, Bismack (vs Kemba Walker, Justin Harper, Andrew Goudelock, Keith Benson).

Greg Monroe, Patrick Patterson, Seraphin, Booker, Greivis, (vs Larry Sanders, Quincy Pondexter, Damion James, Craig Brackins)

James Harden, Stef Curry, Ty Lawson, DJ Blair, Eric Maynor, Danny Green, (Vs James Johnson, Jeff Pendergraph, Nick Calathes, Jack McClinton)

Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, Roy Hibbert, Nico Batum, Mario Chalmers, Bill Walker (vs Brandon Rush, JR Giddens, Kyle Weaver)

Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes, Rudy Fernandez, Tiago Splitter, Marc Gasol, Dom McGuire, Ramon Sessions, Aaron Gray (vs Marco Bellinelli, Mo Almond, Nick Fazekas)

Brandon Roy, Ronnie Brewer, Rajon Rondo -- whom I would have taken instead of Pecherov since he was on the board-- Kyle Lowry -- who I liked almost as much as Rondo-- Jordan Farmar, Craig Smith, Milsapp, JJ Barea who I liked about as much as Lowry and Rondo. (vs Tyrus Thomas, Hilton Armstrong, Cedric Simmons, James White, Alexander Johnson, Guillermo Diaz, Yotam Halperin)

I do alright. At some point I'll have to reconstruct what my picks would have been given the players still on the board. Though in most cases my draft board would have said: 'trade down, take two of these'...

Ok if I quote this on "bullets forever"?

[doclinkin]

You were all over Jeremy Lin.

In terms of value for pick here are my hits against misses. In some cases I count as a success any player still earning time in the league (unless I would have taken them earlier than their value). 2nd round players rarely make a roster, so any PT there is probably good.

Klay Thompson, Jeremy Tyler, Jonas Valanciunas, Faried, Chandler Parsons, Nikola Vucevic, Bismack (vs Kemba Walker, Justin Harper, Andrew Goudelock, Keith Benson).

Greg Monroe, Patrick Patterson, Seraphin, Booker, Greivis, (vs Larry Sanders, Quincy Pondexter, Damion James, Craig Brackins)

James Harden, Stef Curry, Ty Lawson, DJ Blair, Eric Maynor, Danny Green, (Vs James Johnson, Jeff Pendergraph, Nick Calathes, Jack McClinton)

Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, Roy Hibbert, Nico Batum, Mario Chalmers, Bill Walker (vs Brandon Rush, JR Giddens, Kyle Weaver)

Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes, Rudy Fernandez, Tiago Splitter, Marc Gasol, Dom McGuire, Ramon Sessions, Aaron Gray (vs Marco Bellinelli, Mo Almond, Nick Fazekas)

Brandon Roy, Ronnie Brewer, Rajon Rondo -- whom I would have taken instead of Pecherov since he was on the board-- Kyle Lowry -- who I liked almost as much as Rondo-- Jordan Farmar, Craig Smith, Milsapp, JJ Barea who I liked about as much as Lowry and Rondo. (vs Tyrus Thomas, Hilton Armstrong, Cedric Simmons, James White, Alexander Johnson, Guillermo Diaz, Yotam Halperin)

I do alright. At some point I'll have to reconstruct what my picks would have been given the players still on the board. Though in most cases my draft board would have said: 'trade down, take two of these'...

Ok if I quote this on "bullets forever"?

Sure why not, it's a free internet, thanks for asking. Also, why?

[Nivek]

I've been adding full careers of players from previous drafts. It's been interesting. Not a ton of guys in so far, but Anthony Davis still rates as the #1 prospect in my spreadsheet. #2 - Tim Duncan's senior year; #3 - Durant (FR); #4 - tie between Oden (FR) and Blake Griffin (SO); #5 - Michael Jordan (JR). It'll be interesting to see how other players rate as I get time to add them.

One of the things I want to analyze is what's most predictive of NBA success. Is it the final year? The entire college career?

Take Tyler Zeller, for example. As a freshman, he has the lowest rating of the 342 player seasons in my spreadsheet. Where 100 = last pick in the draft, Zeller rated a 25 as a frosh. Senior year, he rates as a top 10 pick.

Then there's Duncan. As a freshman, his rating in my system would suggest a top 10 pick -- about as good his freshman year as Zeller was as a senior. His sophomore year was even better (top 5 at least). He took a small step back his junior year, followed by (so far) the all-time #2 rating as a senior.

Battier as a freshman had about the same rating as MKG with a notable distinction -- 100% of Battier's rating is from his on-court production. 35% of MKG's rating is because of his physical tools. As a senior, Battier had one of the 10 best ratings (so far) in my system.

Now take Jae Crowder. Only two years of data because of his juco stint. As a junior he rated as a mid-to-late 1st rounder in my system. As a senior, he rates as a top 5 pick. In Crowder's case, it's 100% production -- nothing to do with his physical characteristics. When he gets measured and whatnot at the draft camps, he could conceivably move down in my rating.

Throw out some names from recent or not so recent vintage. I'll add them to the sheet as I get time.

[DCZards]

Throw out some names from recent or not so recent vintage. I'll add them to the sheet as I get time.

Patrick Ewing

[pancakes3]

Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, Blake Griffin, Michael Beasley

[dobrojim]

Webber, Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Grant Hill, Rasheed, Stackhouse, Jamison, VCarter,
Mutombo, Adam Morrisey, Kwame...Tyson Chandler, Pau,

Kenny Green, Drexler, Thurl Bailey, Iverson,
Camby, Stockton and KMalone, Chris Wilcox, Chris Washburn
Len Bias

the guy who was Vilanova's Champ Center

[tontoz]

Webber, Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Grant Hill, Rasheed, Stackhouse, Jamison, VCarter,
Mutombo, Adam Morrisey, Kwame...Tyson Chandler, Pau,

Kenny Green, Drexler, Thurl Bailey, Iverson,
Camby, Stockton and KMalone, Chris Wilcox, Chris Washburn
Len Bias

the guy who was Vilanova's Champ Center

Ed Pinckney? Wow that is a name i hadn't thought about in a long time.

Washburn was such a waste.

A few years ago i was in a gym in Rockville and saw someone wearing a Bias Celtics jersey. I wonder how many of those are out there.

[Severn Hoos]

Randolph Childress

Actual answers: Kevin Love, Carlos Boozer, Zach Randolph, Glen Davis, Brandon Bass, Carl Landry, David Lee, Patrick Patterson. Not that I'm stereotyping or anything...

[Zonkerbl]

Sure why not, it's a free internet, thanks for asking. Also, why?

Having a discussion about analytics there:

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/4/10 ... n#comments

[Nivek]

In my stuff, Ewing as a freshman rated as a top 5 pick comparable as a prospect to players like Carmelo, Michael Beasley (who has been a colossal disappointment as a pro). He rates a bit ahead of freshman like Wall, Derrick Rose, Cousins, Battier, MKG, Bosh, and Duncan.

One point worth mentioning is how much the college basketball universe has changed. Ewing's performance as a freshman may well be more impressive than what Davis did because Ewing would have been facing more 3rd and 4th year players. Ewing's junior and senior ratings are virtually identical -- he would have rated as a number 1 pick in virtually any draft. As it stands, those seasons both rate in the top 10 of all players in my spreadsheet. The top 10:

1. Davis, FR
2. Duncan, SR
3. Durant, FR
4. Oden, FR; Griffin, SO
5. Jordan, JR
6. Andre Iguodala, SO
7. Battier, SR; Ewing, JR
8. Ewing, SR
9. Jordan, SO
10. Wade, SO

Lots more players to add, of course. Battier's numbers are eye-popping. His draft camp scores were excellent as well.

Same with Iguodala. At Arizona, he got 25 points, 10.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per 40 and had an ast/tov ratio of 2-1. His shooting was suspect, but he was a helluva college player.

[tontoz]

How about Hakeem? I remember watching him in college was like .........

[Dr Positivity]

Hey nivek, where do you rank Moe Harkless in your system? Are his numbers substantially below MKG's (the difference between them is TS%, though as far as I can tell almost all of that is from Harkless jacking up an extra low percentage 3 a game) I've been thinking lately the gap between them is going to closer to 5 spots than 20 by draft day

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Webber, Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Grant Hill, Rasheed, Stackhouse, Jamison, VCarter,
Mutombo, Adam Morrisey, Kwame...Tyson Chandler, Pau,

Kenny Green, Drexler, Thurl Bailey, Iverson,
Camby, Stockton and KMalone, Chris Wilcox, Chris Washburn
Len Bias

the guy who was Vilanova's Champ Center

Ed Pinckney? Wow that is a name i hadn't thought about in a long time.

Washburn was such a waste.

A few years ago i was in a gym in Rockville and saw someone wearing a Bias Celtics jersey. I wonder how many of those are out there.

Drummond physically reminds me of Washburn.

I was at UMCP while Bias was there. I have told this before, but maybe not to you. I used to see him all the time in passing on campus but was too nervous and in awe to speak to him. One day he spoke to me first. Very friendly guy.

The day Bias died I remember everybody at work (used to work on Goddard SFC in Greenbelt) just stopped working. We couldn't believe it. I went to his wake held at Cole. It was surreal. Len Bias seemed superhuman and for him to die didn't make any sense at all.

Watching him in ACC play I will always say he was the best. Not Jordan. Maybe Dean Smith held back MJ but Bias had some huge games against everyone, including Hakeem and Phi Slamma Jamma Houston.

Anyway, Leonard Bias improved at every statistic the three years he was at UMCP. That final season, IIRC he averaged 23 ppg despite being double and triple team. He shot his best percentage, too. He would have been a sure NBA HOF player had he lived and taken care of himself. Boston would have won some more titles, too.

[Nivek]

Randolph Childress

Only your first answer will be accepted.

Childress looks like a guy who should have come out early. As a freshman, he rated as a late 1st. As a soph, he rated as a mid-to-late 1st. As a junior, he rated as a late 2nd. As a senior, he rated a mid-2nd. All 4 years together -- an earlyish 2nd.

Actual answers: Kevin Love, Carlos Boozer, Zach Randolph, Glen Davis, Brandon Bass, Carl Landry, David Lee, Patrick Patterson. Not that I'm stereotyping or anything...

I'll get these guys in sometime kinda-sorta soon.

[Nivek]

Okay, that's enough names for awhile.

[dobrojim]

Bias might well have been the MJ of SFs.

I had a friend many years ago that probably still believes that
his (Bias') 'friend' Brian (last name?) killed him by putting liquid PCP in his cola
while he was doing the nose candy. Because he was getting with
his GF. Maybe I shouldn't post that. I have no idea how he would
know such a thing.

I didn't want him going to the Celtics but I definitely was stunned
and grieved by his loss. So sad. He was an absolute monster.
His loss really set the Celtics back ten years.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Brian Tribble

Yeah, it was clear that the media left some gaps in the time frame of accounting for all Bias' activity the night and early morning hours he died. Reading between the lines, I thought he was with GF(s) when things went bad. Seemed to me experienced druggies might have known how to revive him. Gatlin, Terry Long, whoever else was involved in covering up things seems to have not taken action that might have saved Bias.

The guy Tribble definitely was a seedy character in all of this. I don't think that was Bias' first time using coke. Not with that guy in his circle. jim, your friend might know some inside stuff. Word on the street is often correct. I knew about Marion Barry's drug use well before he got busted and even before he said "Catch me if you can." It wouldn't surprise me if Tribble did something like that.

Your friend probably knows about Tribble.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/sp ... iblate.htm