Political Roundtable Part XXVII

[popper]

This thread entertains me to no end. I try not to post but I can't resist.

I Stand with Corn Pop

[pancakes3]

why would trump be banned when D1 still posts?

[Zonkerbl]

Wow daone is getting a lot of mileage from that one blatant troll post

Maybe don't rebroadcast garbage takes?

[Zonkerbl]

Wow Yang saying people who have abortions should be ashamed. wtf dude I thought you were my boy

[FAH1223]

Wow Yang saying people who have abortions should be ashamed. wtf dude I thought you were my boy

Read on Twitter

[FAH1223]

Bernie is in good position in NH. Pete is surging at Biden's expense though Amy went hard at him in Friday's debate.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Pointgod]

Wow Yang saying people who have abortions should be ashamed. wtf dude I thought you were my boy

It’s a not so well kept secret that some of Yang’s support definitely overlaps with Trump supporters so I’m not surprised on this. Same reason he was hesitant to say he’d prosecute Trump. I think he’d make a good secretary of labor though since he’s obviously put some deep thought into how technology will affect the the jobs of the future.

[gtn130]

Bernie is the only candidate who can beat Trump

[Ruzious]

Bernie is the only candidate who can beat Trump

Why do you think embracing the word socialism will work in the swing states?

[Zonkerbl]

I don't know about swing state but the rust belt states that Trump surprisingly won are all hardcore pro-union and that is Bernie's core constituency. Trump only won over the ex-union guys because the Dems abandoned them. Bernie can recapture those voters in a heartbeat.

Florida? Colorado? Arizona? Not so sure how he'd do there. But don't be surprised if he turns Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania blue again.

Worth pointing out that the Republicans won a two year one party dictatorship by holding their noses and voting for Trump. If only the Dems had that kind of discipline, THEY'D NEVER LOSE. Except they should be supporting candidates that bring out the African American vote, not the union vote imho.

[gtn130]

Bernie is the only candidate who can beat Trump

Why do you think embracing the word socialism will work in the swing states?

I don't think Bernie is the most broadly "electable" candidate, but I think his supporters (myself included) pretty much hold all the cards here. Personally I'll vote for whoever wins the Dem nomination, but the majority of his supporters will not, and having those folks on your side, not only voting in your favor, but also attacking Trump instead of Democrats is a huge win.

Establishment Dems and the pundit class find Bernie Bros to be incredibly obnoxious, but I don't think people can deny that Bernie Bros are actually great at influencing folks who don't fit into those groups. Bernie can get non-voters out to vote, and no other Dem candidate will do that. If Dems can unify behind Bernie, he has by far the best shot at taking down Trump.

[dckingsfan]

Right now I don't think any D is going to beat Trump given the economy and given the war between moderates and progressives.

Don't think 2020 is our year

[FAH1223]

Bernie is the only candidate who can beat Trump

Why do you think embracing the word socialism will work in the swing states?

I don't know about swing state but the rust belt states that Trump surprisingly won are all hardcore pro-union and that is Bernie's core constituency. Trump only won over the ex-union guys because the Dems abandoned them. Bernie can recapture those voters in a heartbeat.

Florida? Colorado? Arizona? Not so sure how he'd do there. But don't be surprised if he turns Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania blue again.

Worth pointing out that the Republicans won a two year one party dictatorship by holding their noses and voting for Trump. If only the Dems had that kind of discipline, THEY'D NEVER LOSE. Except they should be supporting candidates that bring out the African American vote, not the union vote imho.

Zonk has it right. Bernie will do well in MI, WI, and PA in a general election. He can flip some of those Obama-Obama-Trump voters. The question for Sanders is: can he turn out the people who sat out in 2016? Can he expand the electorate?

He did it a little bit in Iowa although turnout was barely up overall over 2016. But Sanders' team was able to turnout African Americans, Black immigrants, the Latino community, and won with a youth surge according to the data from Iowa. That's part of why he won the popular vote.

It'll be interesting to see how that fares in Nevada, South Carolina and on Super Tuesday. If Biden doesn't do well in NH and NV, I think Bernie and Steyer are going to do a lot better in SC than the polls are showing. Bernie has a lot of the young black vote and Steyer may cut into Biden's older base.

I'll also add the GOP's going to name any Dem running for POTUS as a Socialist. Yes, Bernie labels himself a Dem Socialist. But a campaign on the label isn't going to be where the election is won or lost.

This is a referendum on the President. Which candidate can shift the conversation and not just be in reaction mode to everything Trump does?

From my own objective lens, it is Sanders.

Bernie has the biggest campaign operation. He has an army of volunteers. He has the best fundraising operation (he's raised more $$$ from more unique individual donors than anyone running for POTUS up until this point and has had people make 6M contributions already, its crazy!). He has the best digital team of any of the candidates.

Sanders has said he will show how Trump is a fraud. How Trump has benefited from 'corporate socialism' via tax breaks and subsidies from NY State. I mean, its a pretty compelling argument.

And Bernie will have the resources especially online to display this.

If you're going to beat Trump, you need to have these fundamentals down to fight back against the Trump team's wild disinformation campaign that has already started.

You look at Biden and he doesn't have the money or the digital team to fight back. His polling against Trump has weakened since impeachment started cause Trump has been flooding the digital space with ads targeting Biden on Ukraine. Trump has also targeted Sanders but Bernie has the online army to fight back.

https://www.carlbeijer.com/2020/02/joe-bidens-polling-advantage-against.html

People really are not paying attention to the impact of the online space is going to be in the campaign. Hillary for example barely ran any ads on Facebook. While Trump flooded FB and Google.

Beating Trump is going to be tough. The top-line economic numbers (which Trump himself said are fake news until January 2017) show the growth, the unemployment numbers down, etc. But we know underneath that there are big problems.

Bernie and all the Dems are talking about people living paycheck to paycheck. The high costs of healthcare, education, and housing. I mean, that's where you start IMO if you are going to be running on the economy.

[gtn130]

Right now I don't think any D is going to beat Trump given the economy and given the war between moderates and progressives.

Don't think 2020 is our year

I actually agree with this. It looks bad.

I do think we are prisoners of the moment to some extent, though. There is plenty of time for everyone to move on and unify behind the Dem nominee and most of the primary stuff will be forgotten, as long as the nominee is Bernie.

[Ruzious]

Bernie is the only candidate who can beat Trump

Why do you think embracing the word socialism will work in the swing states?

I don't think Bernie is the most broadly "electable" candidate, but I think his supporters (myself included) pretty much hold all the cards here. Personally I'll vote for whoever wins the Dem nomination, but the majority of his supporters will not, and having those folks on your side, not only voting in your favor, but also attacking Trump instead of Democrats is a huge win.

Establishment Dems and the pundit class find Bernie Bros to be incredibly obnoxious, but I don't think people can deny that Bernie Bros are actually great at influencing folks who don't fit into those groups. Bernie can get non-voters out to vote, and no other Dem candidate will do that. If Dems can unify behind Bernie, he has by far the best shot at taking down Trump.

Fair enough - and maybe obnoxious works nowadaze. I will definitely heartily support Bernie if he wins.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Right now I don't think any D is going to beat Trump given the economy and given the war between moderates and progressives.

Don't think 2020 is our year

I'm somewhat pessimistic, too. I still suggest that the only chance is Warren should Bernie's supporters back her at some point but I'm not convinced that's close to a sure thing, either.

I do think this is an area where moderates are eventually going to have to figure out ways they can bend, though. This whole stance of "it's us or Trump" is a great way to basically disenfranchise anyone pushing for more dramatic action, or at least make them feel that way. It eventually has to be a bit of a give and take where you get some from both sides of the partnership and that hasn't been happening for some time now. They were particularly burned here as they seemed to be under the belief that there were moderate Republicans that would jump to them as Republican positions became increasingly extreme. They were wrong about that one.

The thing here is that as Republican positions have become more extreme, they run less risk of losing moderates if they follow suit because it's a pretty wide chasm at this point. There are a few billionaires and other such wealthy people who might flip for tax cut purposes but they'd probably do it quietly because it would come with a decided branding change.


As an aside, I spent a few months living in St. Petersburg in the early 2000s. Obviously there are massive differences but there are also some parallels that can be drawn. The frustrations I saw amongst educated people who wanted to do the right thing about being unable to trust the media or government and being unsure what to think are starting to be paralleled here. Not that Trump or anyone is necessarily going to figure out a way to get around the two term limit. Even a brokered convention isn't going to bridge that issue and Putin had to temporarily leave office to solve that problem in Russia, something Trump doesn't have time for and even then probably won't be able to resolve. But pushing things towards locking in multitudes of states in as Republican states, locking up the courts, basically rebalancing public institutions and media, can cause big problems.

[Ruzious]

I don't know about swing state but the rust belt states that Trump surprisingly won are all hardcore pro-union and that is Bernie's core constituency. Trump only won over the ex-union guys because the Dems abandoned them. Bernie can recapture those voters in a heartbeat.

Florida? Colorado? Arizona? Not so sure how he'd do there. But don't be surprised if he turns Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania blue again.

Worth pointing out that the Republicans won a two year one party dictatorship by holding their noses and voting for Trump. If only the Dems had that kind of discipline, THEY'D NEVER LOSE. Except they should be supporting candidates that bring out the African American vote, not the union vote imho.

I think Trump takes Wisconsin - they're convinced he's gotten them manufacturing jobs there - even though it's been at an absurd cost - but I think he has a great shot at PA and a decent shot at Ohio and Michigan.

[Kanyewest]

Bernie is the only candidate who can beat Trump

Why do you think embracing the word socialism will work in the swing states?

I don't know about swing state but the rust belt states that Trump surprisingly won are all hardcore pro-union and that is Bernie's core constituency. Trump only won over the ex-union guys because the Dems abandoned them. Bernie can recapture those voters in a heartbeat.

Florida? Colorado? Arizona? Not so sure how he'd do there. But don't be surprised if he turns Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania blue again.

Worth pointing out that the Republicans won a two year one party dictatorship by holding their noses and voting for Trump. If only the Dems had that kind of discipline, THEY'D NEVER LOSE. Except they should be supporting candidates that bring out the African American vote, not the union vote imho.

Zonk has it right. Bernie will do well in MI, WI, and PA in a general election. He can flip some of those Obama-Obama-Trump voters. The question for Sanders is: can he turn out the people who sat out in 2016? Can he expand the electorate?

He did it a little bit in Iowa although turnout was barely up overall over 2016. But Sanders' team was able to turnout African Americans, Black immigrants, the Latino community, and won with a youth surge according to the data from Iowa. That's part of why he won the popular vote.

It'll be interesting to see how that fares in Nevada, South Carolina and on Super Tuesday. If Biden doesn't do well in NH and NV, I think Bernie and Steyer are going to do a lot better in SC than the polls are showing. Bernie has a lot of the young black vote and Steyer may cut into Biden's older base.

I'll also add the GOP's going to name any Dem running for POTUS as a Socialist. Yes, Bernie labels himself a Dem Socialist. But a campaign on the label isn't going to be where the election is won or lost.

This is a referendum on the President. Which candidate can shift the conversation and not just be in reaction mode to everything Trump does?

From my own objective lens, it is Sanders.

Bernie has the biggest campaign operation. He has an army of volunteers. He has the best fundraising operation (he's raised more $$$ from more unique individual donors than anyone running for POTUS up until this point and has had people make 6M contributions already, its crazy!). He has the best digital team of any of the candidates.

Sanders has said he will show how Trump is a fraud. How Trump has benefited from 'corporate socialism' via tax breaks and subsidies from NY State. I mean, its a pretty compelling argument.

And Bernie will have the resources especially online to display this.

If you're going to beat Trump, you need to have these fundamentals down to fight back against the Trump team's wild disinformation campaign that has already started.

You look at Biden and he doesn't have the money or the digital team to fight back. His polling against Trump has weakened since impeachment started cause Trump has been flooding the digital space with ads targeting Biden on Ukraine. Trump has also targeted Sanders but Bernie has the online army to fight back.

https://www.carlbeijer.com/2020/02/joe-bidens-polling-advantage-against.html

People really are not paying attention to the impact of the online space is going to be in the campaign. Hillary for example barely ran any ads on Facebook. While Trump flooded FB and Google.

Beating Trump is going to be tough. The top-line economic numbers (which Trump himself said are fake news until January 2017) show the growth, the unemployment numbers down, etc. But we know underneath that there are big problems.

Bernie and all the Dems are talking about people living paycheck to paycheck. The high costs of healthcare, education, and housing. I mean, that's where you start IMO if you are going to be running on the economy.

I just want to add that if Hillary had gotten 100% of the Green Party vote in Michigan, Wisconsin, and PA, she would have won the election. Sanders is much more positioned to get that vote.

[Zonkerbl]

Trump exposed that ex-union guys are blue collar, uneducated, obnoxious, racist, xenophobic little effers so I'm not sure we want those guys back. Things are different now - Dems used to think uneducated white union voters were their core, now they're being forced to admit that African Americans are their core constituency.

Bernie is the guy who can bring back the ex-union guys, and he's got young superstars like AOC on his side. But we're not going to win 2020, with the economy as strong as it is, without a lot of enthusiasm from the African American community. We're just not. So I'm kind of waiting to see how Bernie does with them.

So far AAs have been voting mainly on name recognition, so they've been supporting Biden. We'll see now that the campaign is in full swing if, once they start to pay attention, they settle on Bernie.

[Pointgod]

Bernie is the only candidate who can beat Trump

Even the worst of the Democratic candidates can beat Trump if people turn out and fully support them. So this Bernie is the only one that can one rhetoric seems to be just a bargaining chip from the far left of the party as a threat to sit out. Obviously people like yourself excluded. All this comes with the heavy caveat that Republicans will cheat to win the election so it may not even matter who the candidate is.