JonathanJoseph wrote:The Consiglieri wrote:I feel like there's a bit of a redskin-like fantasy offseason going on. It's certainly possible that things could blow up, and we could shock the world w/a quick turn around. I think the safer bet is that the team is just a year or two away from mattering. Again, maybe we get shocked by how good this team is, I could see a starting 5 of Wall, Arenas, Thornton/whomever, Blatche, and McGee dominating on the floor in terms of speed and athleticism, Arenas is really the wild card here, and if he's cool and chill w/whats going on, things could be spectacular.
But, I think it's more likely that there are a ton of growing pains and we win 28-35 games, and have a top 8-10 pick. I also think its in our best interests to land one more quality prospect before we begin to make our runs, maybe two, though of course I've also heard about how lacking in depth and top end talent this next draft is (which makes landing Wall this past year so freaking amazing).
My expectations are simply that this team will be insanely fun and frustrating to watch, lots of ups and downs, some major dips in form, and at the end of the year, probably a record somewhere around 34-48. We'll see, but the best thing is that we got insanely lucky this year and we'll be really praising the gods at how lucky we were in terms of the lottery all year long.
Since I'm likely among the most optimistic about this season, I don't think the Skins analogy works here. Football and basketball are not really the same thing, and the addition of a RARE PG can turn a whole franchise around pretty quick.
Ironically, you could have compared the Skins to the Wiz any other year, since it has always been cancerous ownership that has held back both franchises. But now Teddy is in charge and I think you'll see evidence of that change throughout the organization.
Now, to 28 to 35 as a target win range. Last year, the teams that fit that range were the Knicks, Clippers and Pacers. You think this edition of the Wiz has that little talent? Everyone keeps trying to talk me down in the number of wins but I just haven't heard what I consider to be a logical argument that says the Wiz win that few. Call me a kook-aid drinker....
I think that people are looking at the talent on the team and projecting a season based on the players maxing or coming close to maxing their potential. Reminds me of when I was a kid in 1990, and I'd project Monk to get his 1000, Clark and Sanders to get their thousand, Riggs and Byner to get their 1800 etc. Cross sports analogies can be faulty but the principles the same. To win 40+ the team will have to have a lot go well. And very little go wrong. I'll grant that virtually anything that could go wrong last year, did go wrong.
But that doesn't mean that everything will go right this year. To have the season some of you guys project, Arenas will have to stick around and max his abilities, Wall will have to avoid freshman slumps and up and downs to some extent if not totally, Blatche will have to be healthy and not have issues w/the coaching staff that get him benched and produce at the level he did last year, NY will have to grow, McGee will have to play like he did during the summer league (the stats say he improved about 5-10% on last years summer league numbers-those numbers resulted in little in the regular season and up and down production after the veteran cancers were shipped out), w/no evidence available as yet that he can consistently do so, guys like Howard, and Thornton picked up in trades will have to contribute substantially and not be minuses (depending upon when/if Howard could come back), Booker can't be a bust, Seraphin needs to be healthy and back.
Basically all of our guys have to have the arrows on their production and season across the board show "up" rather than "down" or even "static". Is that going to happen? I don't think it is. I do think the Cavs are going to completely implode and totally fall to pieces, so that will remove one team thats ahead of us, but I still think at the end of the day, Boston, Orlando, Miami, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Chicago, and then there's the 8 seed. Whose got a legit chance of getting it, or bumping one of these teams down? New York, Indiana, Philly, Detroit, and us (New Jersey could make a huge turn around possibly, though Im skeptical). Some of you are betting on us, I'd bet on Philly or New York to do it before us. At the end of the day I expect us to finish 9th to 11th in the conference because i think these other teams have made improvements too, and we have too many questions to bet on us. Do i think it's possible? Sure. History shows that teams make the jump in one of two ways, incrementally slowly building a winner, 18 wins here, 24 wins there, 29 there, 32 here, 39 there, 44 there, or teams make jumps like San Antonio did after acquiring superstuds like Duncan and Robinson, doubling or even doubling and a half wins. We could be that team. We're young, fast, athletic, and totally free of veteran cancers except for potentially one, who would be shipped out, or sat at home if he's remotely disruptive. These guys are going to have fun this year, and they'll be fun to watch. The problem to me is that they're too young, too inconsistent, and not ready, to me.
I don't mind, i think to win it all, this team will need to suffer a little longer or be able to land a superstud like Miami did this year. What would do to me? A tough first half to the season, and an incredible finish to build on in '11-'12. That's what I'm hoping for, injecting some luck into the lottery, or just like in '09, a draft projected to be crap, being better than that, and us landing a small forward, 2 guard or something else could definitely need, and having a young team w/experience and insane athleticism to scare the hell out of the league in 15 months time, after they've had that experience from a first rough year and do not want to repeat it. I fear for a repeat of what happened to Cleveland, getting too good too fast, and never landing a second genuine difference maker for LeBron. We have a lot of accompanying pieces, but I do think if there's anyway we can get that second future top 10 guy in the league, we need to make it happen, and because of how Leonsis builds, I think we'll get our shot at making that happen, he'll be patient. If it doesn't happen, there is always hope that Blatche, Seraphin or McGee or even two of them could grow into that role, or even keeping a healthy Arenas.
The thing to focus on, is even in keeping my feet rooted to the ground, and a lot of us doing the same, we must never forget that the Boulez got its Ovechkin, the luck of the lottery finally went our way. That's what we need to remember, and that's what changes the complexion of a future of doubtful, fanciful maybe's that was ours just three months ago, to a future brimming with the brightest of possibilities, and genuine hope.
