Detroit VS Washington Tank-Battle, 6PM

[JonathanJoseph]

I wonder if it's possible that the Wizards offensive execution looked good against Detroit at least in part because Detroit has one of the league's worst defenses.

Nah, probably not.

It wasn't the execution that was impressive to me. It was the approach.

In fact, Wall's and the team's execution was still poor at best. But Wall has taken a different approach for the last two games and it gives the team a new outlook from my perspective.

Sure Detroit sucks, but it was an away game and they won by 20+ (could've been 30 too).

[JonathanJoseph]

Just to sorta loop back to the "looking good against a bad defense" point. Detroit has allowed 108.3 points per 100 possessions so far this season. The Wizards ortg: 101. Wall's ortg for the game: 85.

Umm, Nash and Stockton are "unathletic"? Huh. News to me.

From the perspective of size and speed, neither Nash nor Stockton are/were athletic at all.

[DallasShalDune]

Nash is still athletic at 38. I have to disagree with you. The guy is built like a soccer player, and has better stamina than most of the league still.

[Nivek]

Just to sorta loop back to the "looking good against a bad defense" point. Detroit has allowed 108.3 points per 100 possessions so far this season. The Wizards ortg: 101. Wall's ortg for the game: 85.

Umm, Nash and Stockton are "unathletic"? Huh. News to me.

From the perspective of size and speed, neither Nash nor Stockton are/were athletic at all.

Neither guy was big, but both were incredibly quick and had good speed. Stockton had good strength for a guy his size.

I'd agree that athleticism was not their best attribute -- neither had the kind of physical tools Wall has. But both guys had better than average athleticism. Nash still looks terrific at 38.

[Ruzious]

Right. If Wall runs it correctly and they bottle up the option to McGee, it leaves Nick Young (or other shooter) wide open for 3. See the Jeremy Lin/Steve Novak/Tyson Chandler offensive juggurnaut for an example. It does require a PG who understands how to do it though, and we're only seeing the first signs from Wall.

We saw how well that worked the previous 2 games against the Knicks and Heat, 6-38 from 3.

Yeah, when you're as poor an outside shooting team as the Wiz, it's hard to space the floor - which makes it very easy for a good defense to adjust.

[tontoz]

Right. If Wall runs it correctly and they bottle up the option to McGee, it leaves Nick Young (or other shooter) wide open for 3. See the Jeremy Lin/Steve Novak/Tyson Chandler offensive juggurnaut for an example. It does require a PG who understands how to do it though, and we're only seeing the first signs from Wall.

We saw how well that worked the previous 2 games against the Knicks and Heat, 6-38 from 3.

Yeah, when you're as poor an outside shooting team as the Wiz, it's hard to space the floor - which makes it very easy for a good defense to adjust.

I am curious who this "other shooter" is that JJ is referring to.

[closg00]

Nash is 38, who is the oldest PG to have stuck-around in the NBA? Nash looks-like he could easily play through 40.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think JJ criticizing Wall and getting attacked left and right reminds me of me criticizing Flip Saunders. People begin to get personal and try to discredit everything you say when you say the very thing they do not want to hear. I was too critical of Flip when I made my most damning criticism--that another coach could win and that this team had talent to win. However, I am seeing a different coach be more flexible and a different guys playing. JJ doesn't like Wall's play. For the most part, neither have i.

I argued that Cousins is better than Wall and was told I was wrong so many times.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ljo01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ide01.html
http://www.82games.com/1112/11SAC13.HTM
http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS1.HTM

Using those sites I see Cousins has a better PER, WS, WS/48, and his team is +1.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. The Wizards are -8.5 points per 100 possessions with Wall on the court. Cousins is something like third in double doubles and he leads the league in charges drawn. Yet, I am sure people will still say Wall is better.

Lately, one argument has been the Wizards shouldn't pursue a guy like Lin because they are set at PG. Jeremy Lin IMO is a better PG than Wall. He is a better defender, a better midrange shooter, and he commands respect. Lin's team won the California State high school state championship. Lin also has a degree in economics from Harvard. What he does much better than John Wall is lead IMO. He executes an offense better right now.

Anything unflattering about Wall gets attacked on this board. If you look at Wall's Offensive Rating and his Defensive Rating, I cannot see how one concludes that John Wall is a great player. I agree with most of what Jonathan Joseph has to say about John Wall.

No knock on Wall. He seems to be competing hard and playing better of late.

[tontoz]

CCJ, regarding Flip .... it wasn't just your citicisism of Flip that rubbed people the wrong way. It was your relentless spamming in every thread. No matter what was wrong with the team it was Flip's fault. Every game thread you would bash him over and over. Every other thread was the same way.

Then when he finally does get canned you realized that the team sucked anyway and you apologized.

Secondly the team is not 8.5 per 100 possessions worse with Wall. 82games.com hasn't been updated in weeks. As i have said many times +/- stats aren't reliable in small sample sizes and they are even less reliable on teams that have a lot of garbage time. How many times do i have to explain this before it sinks in?

For up to date info ...

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers. ... 2&team=WAS


In 2 weeks WAll's +/- has gone from -8.5 to +5.88. That should tell you that small sample sizes aren't very reliable.

[TGW]

CCJ, regarding Flip .... it wasn't just your citicisism of Flip that rubbed people the wrong way. It was your relentless spamming in every thread. No matter what was wrong with the team it was Flip's fault. Every game thread you would bash him over and over. Every other thread was the same way.

Bingo. My guess is that there aren't too many living horses where CCJ resides.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, regarding Flip .... it wasn't just your citicisism of Flip that rubbed people the wrong way. It was your relentless spamming in every thread. No matter what was wrong with the team it was Flip's fault. Every game thread you would bash him over and over. Every other thread was the same way.

Then when he finally does get canned you realized that the team sucked anyway and you apologized.

Secondly the team is not 8.5 per 100 possessions worse with Wall. 82games.com hasn't been updated in weeks. As i have said many times +/- stats aren't reliable in small sample sizes and they are even less reliable on teams that have a lot of garbage time. How many times do i have to explain this before it sinks in?

For up to date info ...

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers. ... 2&team=WAS


In 2 weeks WAll's +/- has gone from -8.5 to +5.88. That should tell you that small sample sizes aren't very reliable.

tontoz, maybe I should not use 82games at all. Thanks.

How about PER, WS, WS/48, Ortg, Drtg from basketball reference? Wall's PER is 16.9. OTOH, McGee's is over 19 and Cousins' is right at 21 FWIW. I have heard PER favors bigs.

[Nivek]

PER also favors guys who shoot. A player can boost his PER by shooting more frequently -- so long as he makes something like 30% of his additional shots.

As for Wall's +/- -- I'm looking at bv, and I see Wall at -3.45, not +5.88.

I usually look more at the ON number in the +/- stats. The off numbers have so many variables, including quality of backup. Plus, for a team like the Wizards, the bench guys can sometimes "benefit" (in +/-) by what DeanO calls the "slacking off effect." That's just Dean's term for the reality that when teams get a big lead, they play with less intensity. The goal being not to win every minute of the game, but rather to win the game, period.

[tontoz]

PER also favors guys who shoot. A player can boost his PER by shooting more frequently -- so long as he makes something like 30% of his additional shots.

As for Wall's +/- -- I'm looking at bv, and I see Wall at -3.45, not +5.88.

I usually look more at the ON number in the +/- stats. The off numbers have so many variables, including quality of backup. Plus, for a team like the Wizards, the bench guys can sometimes "benefit" (in +/-) by what DeanO calls the "slacking off effect." That's just Dean's term for the reality that when teams get a big lead, they play with less intensity. The goal being not to win every minute of the game, but rather to win the game, period.

I think the -3.45 it is the differences in ORTG and DRTG. The heading on that column is " 1 Year Unadjusted Overall Rtg". The column to the left is 1 yr adjusted +/-.

I used to think it was +/- too but then i wondered why there were columns on the left specifically labeled as +/-. Then i looked above the player stats and looked at the team stats and sure enough there was ORTG and DRTG.

Not sure obviously but if that column was measuring +/- i would think it would be labeled as such.

[tontoz]

CCJ, regarding Flip .... it wasn't just your citicisism of Flip that rubbed people the wrong way. It was your relentless spamming in every thread. No matter what was wrong with the team it was Flip's fault. Every game thread you would bash him over and over. Every other thread was the same way.

Then when he finally does get canned you realized that the team sucked anyway and you apologized.

Secondly the team is not 8.5 per 100 possessions worse with Wall. 82games.com hasn't been updated in weeks. As i have said many times +/- stats aren't reliable in small sample sizes and they are even less reliable on teams that have a lot of garbage time. How many times do i have to explain this before it sinks in?

For up to date info ...

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers. ... 2&team=WAS


In 2 weeks WAll's +/- has gone from -8.5 to +5.88. That should tell you that small sample sizes aren't very reliable.

tontoz, maybe I should not use 82games at all. Thanks.

How about PER, WS, WS/48, Ortg, Drtg from basketball reference? Wall's PER is 16.9. OTOH, McGee's is over 19 and Cousins' is right at 21 FWIW. I have heard PER favors bigs.

I would think any of those would be more reliable than +/-, especially in small sample sizes. I haven't looked at the actual formula for PER so i have no idea if it really favors bigs.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

In my opinion Cousins is better than Wall and so is Jeremy Lin.

I will retract when Wall puts in more games like he did against Detroit or when the others fall off in production.

I'm not hijacking or spamming any thread to say this. I think most Wizard fans overestimate John Wall and underestimate other players at the same position.

[tontoz]

In my opinion Cousins is better than Wall and so is Jeremy Lin.
I will retract when Wall puts in more games like he did against Detroit or when the others fall off in production.

I'm not hijacking or spamming any thread to say this. I think most Wizard fans overestimate John Wall and underestimate other players at the same position.

Stating an opinion is one thing. Stating the exact same opinion over and over and over hundreds of times is something else.

I was glad to see Flip get fired for 2 reasons:

1) his favoritism to Blatche was very annoying.
2) i wouldn't have to read all of your Flip bashing posts every day.

Our memories aren't that bad. We aren't going to suddenly forget that you think Wall is overrated.

I was criticizing Wall lot early last season FYI and caught heat for it. That is the nature of message boards.

[Nivek]

PER also favors guys who shoot. A player can boost his PER by shooting more frequently -- so long as he makes something like 30% of his additional shots.

As for Wall's +/- -- I'm looking at bv, and I see Wall at -3.45, not +5.88.

I usually look more at the ON number in the +/- stats. The off numbers have so many variables, including quality of backup. Plus, for a team like the Wizards, the bench guys can sometimes "benefit" (in +/-) by what DeanO calls the "slacking off effect." That's just Dean's term for the reality that when teams get a big lead, they play with less intensity. The goal being not to win every minute of the game, but rather to win the game, period.

I think the -3.45 it is the differences in ORTG and DRTG. The heading on that column is " 1 Year Unadjusted Overall Rtg". The column to the left is 1 yr adjusted +/-.

I used to think it was +/- too but then i wondered why there were columns on the left specifically labeled as +/-. Then i looked above the player stats and looked at the team stats and sure enough there was ORTG and DRTG.

Not sure obviously but if that column was measuring +/- i would think it would be labeled as such.

I don't see anything on Wall's that says +5.88. I don't see anything on his individual page at BV that says +5.88.

2 year APM: -7.18
1 year APM: +4.12
Unadjusted overall rating (team efficiency differential on vs. team differential off): -3.45 (net)
1 year unadjusted ortg on/off: +1.81
1 year unadjusted drtg on/off: -5.26

The -3.45 is indeed a combination of offensive and defensive rating -- unadjusted. The next column over to the left -- 1 year Adjusted +/- -- is the same thing, but...umm...adjusted. All the numbers at BV are expressed in points per 100 possessions. I basically never use one-year APM because the standard errors are massive. I don't put much stock in APM generally, but that doesn't matter right now.

[tontoz]

PER also favors guys who shoot. A player can boost his PER by shooting more frequently -- so long as he makes something like 30% of his additional shots.

As for Wall's +/- -- I'm looking at bv, and I see Wall at -3.45, not +5.88.

I usually look more at the ON number in the +/- stats. The off numbers have so many variables, including quality of backup. Plus, for a team like the Wizards, the bench guys can sometimes "benefit" (in +/-) by what DeanO calls the "slacking off effect." That's just Dean's term for the reality that when teams get a big lead, they play with less intensity. The goal being not to win every minute of the game, but rather to win the game, period.

I think the -3.45 it is the differences in ORTG and DRTG. The heading on that column is " 1 Year Unadjusted Overall Rtg". The column to the left is 1 yr adjusted +/-.

I used to think it was +/- too but then i wondered why there were columns on the left specifically labeled as +/-. Then i looked above the player stats and looked at the team stats and sure enough there was ORTG and DRTG.

Not sure obviously but if that column was measuring +/- i would think it would be labeled as such.

I don't see anything on Wall's that says +5.88. I don't see anything on his individual page at BV that says +5.88.

Now the exact same page i was looking at earlier shows Wall's 1 adjusted +/- at 4.12. I guess they just updated the site.

I would assume that the adjusted +/- number is the one that would correspond to the on/off numbers on 82games.com if they were up to date, correct?

[Nivek]

When I follow the link you posted, I find Wall's 1-year adjusted +/- as +4.12.

The APM number would NOT correspond with the 82games numbers. Roland doesn't have APM at 82games. His on/off numbers are offensive and defensive points per 100 possessions, but no adjustment -- just the numbers. Roland's numbers at 82games (if up to date) should correspond to the 1-year UNadjusted numbers at bv.

[tontoz]

Yeah now i see it as 4.12. I saw it as 5.42 just a few minutes ago and 5.88 when i originally looked at that page today.

When i originally looked at that page it was updated as of 2/12. Now it is showing updated as of 2/13.