Official John Wall Appreciation Thread 2.0

[jivelikenice]

See, but the problem with Wall isn't really "finishers." His assist numbers are good, for example. The problems are his own shooting and his turnovers. Those aren't really teammate related. Better teammates would help the TEAM be better, but Wall still has to address the deficiencies in his own game.

This is probably sounding a lot more critical of Wall than I intend it to be. I like him, and he's sooooooo young that I still have tons of hope that he'll figure it out and become the franchise building block he's already been proclaimed to be (by the team). I'm just saying what I think everyone would agree: he has to get better. Getting better teammates is desirable AND necessary if the team is to improve, but Wall has to get better as an individual.

Nobody is arguing the Wall doesnt have to work on his deficencies. His shot needs to continue to improve and I also think hes needs to get stronger to help him finish in the lane. His assist numbers are solid, but I think they can be elite if he had just solid shooters/finishers....

[Dark Faze]

Turnovers are going to happen. If anything with his bad teammates and his wreckless style of play I'm surprised they don't happen more often, which is kind of encouraging. Virtually every point in the league with high assist numbers has somewhere around 3.5 turnovers a game which John is in line with, Johns are just much worse with the eye test because they are almost all because of being out of control.

The thing with Wall is that his play is heavily dependent around whats around him. I'm not going to compare Wall to Nash, as Nash is a HOF talent, but Nash never did much until he had pieces around him that fit. He went to PHX, they went small and he had a ton of shooters around him. Now look at him on the Lakers, looking uneffective mostly do to player personell.

Johns definitely the type of guy who, if you give up on him and he goes to a team that fits him he'll make you regret it.

[Nivek]

See, but the problem with Wall isn't really "finishers." His assist numbers are good, for example. The problems are his own shooting and his turnovers. Those aren't really teammate related. Better teammates would help the TEAM be better, but Wall still has to address the deficiencies in his own game.

This is probably sounding a lot more critical of Wall than I intend it to be. I like him, and he's sooooooo young that I still have tons of hope that he'll figure it out and become the franchise building block he's already been proclaimed to be (by the team). I'm just saying what I think everyone would agree: he has to get better. Getting better teammates is desirable AND necessary if the team is to improve, but Wall has to get better as an individual.

Nobody is arguing the Wall doesnt have to work on his deficencies. His shot needs to continue to improve and I also think hes needs to get stronger to help him finish in the lane. His assist numbers are solid, but I think they can be elite if he had just solid shooters/finishers....

I would argue he's already elite in assists, but your basic point is well-taken. Wall is 5th in per minute assists this season -- 1.5 assists behind the league leader (Rondo). That said, you're correct that better shooting teammates might well move him up to #1 on that list. Two more assists per game would raise his offensive rating to 104, which would be okay -- even without improved shooting. Two more assists per game would also boost his PPA from below average (where he is now for the season) to a bit above average -- again, without improving his shooting a bit from where it is now.

[Nivek]

See, but the problem with Wall isn't really "finishers." His assist numbers are good, for example. The problems are his own shooting and his turnovers. Those aren't really teammate related. Better teammates would help the TEAM be better, but Wall still has to address the deficiencies in his own game.

This is probably sounding a lot more critical of Wall than I intend it to be. I like him, and he's sooooooo young that I still have tons of hope that he'll figure it out and become the franchise building block he's already been proclaimed to be (by the team). I'm just saying what I think everyone would agree: he has to get better. Getting better teammates is desirable AND necessary if the team is to improve, but Wall has to get better as an individual.

OK now this i can argue with. Given that the only real way Wall can contribute offensively is to drive to the basket, and better spacing would make it easier to drive, i think better teamates would definitely help him on the turnover front. I also think he sometimes feels a sense of desperation out there to score, given the lack of talent around him, and ends up forcing the issue more than he would otherwise.

I certainly don't think all of his turnover woes can be blamed on his teamates but i think some of them can. How much is certainly an open question.

I think "interaction effects" often get overstated. One reason I'm unconvinced that better teammates would cause his turnovers to drop is that his turnovers were high in college where his teammates were good (relative to the competition level).

That said, you may well be right. I do think Wall gets desperate to make plays and makes mistakes because of that desperation. But, he did the same stuff at Kentucky... Anyway, I would LOVE to test your hypothesis with Wall and the Wizards. Unfortunately, Grunfeld.

[Nivek]

Turnovers are going to happen. If anything with his bad teammates and his wreckless style of play I'm surprised they don't happen more often, which is kind of encouraging. Virtually every point in the league with high assist numbers has somewhere around 3.5 turnovers a game which John is in line with, Johns are just much worse with the eye test because they are almost all because of being out of control.

Of the 21 players averaging 6 assists per game or more, 3 average 3.5 turnovers per game (4, if you want to count Vasquez at 3.4 tov/g).

Of players with a minimum of 325 total minutes this season, Wall has the most turnovers per minute.

Maybe Wall's turnovers come down with better teammates, as tontoz suggests. But, his turnovers are high, even compared to other players who have high assist numbers.

The thing with Wall is that his play is heavily dependent around whats around him. I'm not going to compare Wall to Nash, as Nash is a HOF talent, but Nash never did much until he had pieces around him that fit. He went to PHX, they went small and he had a ton of shooters around him. Now look at him on the Lakers, looking uneffective mostly do to player personell.

If a guy's play is heavily dependent on how good his teammates are, then he's not a franchise-level talent.

I think your Nash example is both revisionist and erroneous. He was an outstanding player for several years before he got to Phoenix. He did play even better in Phoenix, though his MVPs were pretty iffy in my analysis.

With the Lakers, he's actually performing about the same as he always has, but he's been asked to play a different role. In Phoenix, he was the PG, the offense ran through him every possession. With the Lakers, the offense runs through Kobe. But, if you look at the numbers, Nash is basically the exact same guy with the Lakers as he was last season with the Suns except for three stats: assists, turnovers and usage.

Johns definitely the type of guy who, if you give up on him and he goes to a team that fits him he'll make you regret it.

Who said anything about giving up on him? I'm not ready to give up on him. The Wizards don't have to make a decision on him at all until the trade deadline in 2014 at the absolute earliest. There's no rush. I've pointed out a number of times that Wall's first couple seasons bore a not-superficial resemblance to guys like Isiah Thomas and Russell Westbrook.

I'm merely pointing out that his performance level is not good enough to warrant consideration as a franchise building block.

[Dat2U]

But is Wall really teammate dependent or just dependent on not being surrounded the worst collection of offensive talent imaginable?

And that's exactly one year after probably having the worst collection of basketball IQ imaginable.

I'd just like to see what he'd do in a normal situation.

[jimij]

There's definitely some chicken and the egg stuff going on when evaluating Wall and trying to factor in the effect of "better teammates" but I do believe that even with below average teammates with different skill sets rather than what his current running mates have Wall could certainly be much more effective.

For a guy who is legitimately a poor shooter to be surrounded by such poor shooting it does tend to allow the defense to completely sell out when trying to cut off his penetration. I'm not convinced that it will help his turnovers all that much but better shooting teammates (even with more deficiencies in other areas) would IMO certainly help open up space for his penetration into the lane.

If we were somehow able to land the number one pick this year I'd try just about anything to find a way to structure a trade with Minnesota to get Love. He seems like the perfect PF complement to Wall. Great shooter to stretch the floor and great rebounder/outlet passer to get Wall out on the fast break.

[Nivek]

But is Wall really teammate dependent or just dependent on not being surrounded the worst collection of offensive talent imaginable?

And that's exactly one year after probably having the worst collection of basketball IQ imaginable.

I'd just like to see what he'd do in a normal situation.

Me too. I'm...skeptical...about whether it's going to happen, though. At least while he's with the Wizards.

Until then, I'd like to see Wall take care of stuff he can control -- continuing to improve the shot, use screens better, do a better job of valuing the ball and valuing possessions, playing better defense. That kind of thing.

[payitforward]

See, but the problem with Wall isn't really "finishers." His assist numbers are good, for example. The problems are his own shooting and his turnovers. Those aren't really teammate related. Better teammates would help the TEAM be better, but Wall still has to address the deficiencies in his own game.

This is probably sounding a lot more critical of Wall than I intend it to be. I like him, and he's sooooooo young that I still have tons of hope that he'll figure it out and become the franchise building block he's already been proclaimed to be (by the team). I'm just saying what I think everyone would agree: he has to get better. Getting better teammates is desirable AND necessary if the team is to improve, but Wall has to get better as an individual.

+1 (and I've written the same thing several times)

Of course we need better players. If the goal is to win a title, then every year 29 out of 30 teams need better players. If the goal is to reach the playoffs, then the number is 14. This is obvious.

In a way all this "put him in a position to succeed before you judge him" stuff is very like all Hands' posts about "optimal lineups." Despite the term "chemistry," the NBA doesn't work that way. You don't have particular lineups that "explode" (as if there'd been a chemical reaction). The NBA works like *addition*. The better the players -- i.e. the better numbers they put up (esp. TS% and ball possession #s -- rebounds minus TOs plus Stls) the more games you win.

Period. There's no more to it than that -- what's hard is *acquiring* those players. That takes a talented FO, which is why we don't have enough talented players.

[payitforward]

...what [Wall]'s producing now isn't good enough to warrant consideration as a foundational player.

That won't stop the Wizards from considering him as their foundational player, of course.

Ted repeatedly calls him "our star guard."

This is evidence of what I've described as the conflict between Monumental Sports objectives and team objectives. To market MS, he needs to be called a star guard. But calling him that won't get the Wizards winning games.

It's a mess that won't go away soon.

[payitforward]

See, but the problem with Wall isn't really "finishers." His assist numbers are good, for example. The problems are his own shooting and his turnovers. Those aren't really teammate related. Better teammates would help the TEAM be better, but Wall still has to address the deficiencies in his own game.

This is probably sounding a lot more critical of Wall than I intend it to be. I like him, and he's sooooooo young that I still have tons of hope that he'll figure it out and become the franchise building block he's already been proclaimed to be (by the team). I'm just saying what I think everyone would agree: he has to get better. Getting better teammates is desirable AND necessary if the team is to improve, but Wall has to get better as an individual.

Nobody is arguing the Wall doesnt have to work on his deficencies. His shot needs to continue to improve and I also think hes needs to get stronger to help him finish in the lane. His assist numbers are solid, but I think they can be elite if he had just solid shooters/finishers....

No, it needs to *start* to improve.

[Nivek]

The irony, of course, is that the best marketing strategy is to win games.

[payitforward]

But is Wall really teammate dependent or just dependent on not being surrounded the worst collection of offensive talent imaginable?

And that's exactly one year after probably having the worst collection of basketball IQ imaginable.

I'd just like to see what he'd do in a normal situation.

Me too. I'm...skeptical...about whether it's going to happen, though. At least while he's with the Wizards.

Until then, I'd like to see Wall take care of stuff he can control -- continuing to improve the shot, use screens better, do a better job of valuing the ball and valuing possessions, playing better defense. That kind of thing.

et tu, Nivek?

What's with all this "continuing to improve his shot" stuff? This year, john's TS% is the same as it was last year, which was just slightly better than his rookie year. His eFG% is slightly better than last year.

He's also fouling much more, turning it over more, rebounding less, and stealing less. His assists are up.

Overall, he's playing worse than last season (where his numbers were dragged down by a horrible start, btw).

[Nivek]

Wrong word choice.

[GhostsOfGil]

No, it needs to *start* to improve.

As minor as at may seem, he has improved. His jump shot is overstated. I'm far more worried about his turnovers and decision making. Also, it's maddening that he always picks up his dribble before he passes in half court sets.

[montestewart]

Maybe he's being dragged down by a horrible start this year too. His 2p% has improved each year, and his numbers from 10-23 feet are better than last year and are comparable with Westbrook, Lawson, Lin, and some other PGs (though some of them also have an at least creditable 3P). He's also taking more shots from that range, and fewer from the 3P range, but since he really has no three at all right now, it's that or just drive to the basket.

If he can continue to improve into the low .400 range from 10-23 feet, teams will either have to cover him more closely or let him have an increasingly successful shot. Granted, it's an improvement in the least efficient shot, but it is an improvement. Maybe it's just the small sample, and it's still far from good enough, but Wall's shooting in some ways seems a little improved. Overall game, another story, and those TOs are definitely up.

[Nivek]

Over at hoopdata, the numbers look quite a bit different. Something is really screwy with the shot distance numbers between b-r and hoopdata. Gonna try once more to see if they can resolve it.

[B-easy]

Over at hoopdata, the numbers look quite a bit different. Something is really screwy with the shot distance numbers between b-r and hoopdata. Gonna try once more to see if they can resolve it.

hoopdata only have Wall's first 6 games recorded. Use basketball-reference instead.

[Nivek]

I know, but that's not the issue. There are HUGE discrepancies between the shot distance data at basketball-reference and hoopdata. I've tried a couple times to get them to work out the differences, but so far...nothing. Need to try again.

The fact that b-r's numbers are more up-to-date doesn't mean they're more accurate.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I like the way John Wall competed in the win over the Clippers. He had a steal, hit a nice jumper, and got a dunk off of hustle and high energy in the fourth.

It was not a great start for Wall but I thought he did well when it matter the most. He used his defense, energy, and will to win today very nicely.