Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[pancakes3]

I don't think McLemore is a BPA type player. Noel-Porter-Oladipo is definitely the way to go and I think we have a very good chance of getting Noel/Porter.

The draft isn't my concern. It's what we do after the draft. If we get Noel, we HAVE to turn booker/ves/seraphin into something worthwhile. If we get Porter, we have to turn ariza/webster/singleton into something worthwhile. Those are the extra moves that a GM needs to pull off. Any monkey that follows the NBA could draft Noel or Porter. The devil's in the details.

[nate33]

If we get Noel, we HAVE to turn booker/ves/seraphin into something worthwhile. If we get Porter, we have to turn ariza/webster/singleton into something worthwhile.

I agree, but that's easier said than done. It's real hard to trade valueless assets for anything other than valueless assets. Specifically, I don't see us getting anything at all for Booker, Vesely or Singleton. Booker isn't awful when healthy, but as an expiring contract due to receive a less-than-MLE salary, his Bird Rights have no trade value. Vesely has negative value with his contract. Singleton isn't any better than a vet minimum free agency signing.

It really boils down to whether we can get any value for Seraphin or Ariza. Seraphin is going to need to play better or else he'll fall into the Booker category (not necessarily awful, but the Bird Rights have no useful value). Ariza might be able to net us a 2nd round pick or late first if we trade him for a crappy contract.

I'd rather not trade Webster. He has a great attitude and he fits perfectly on a team with Wall and Nene. He can start at SF until Porter is ready, and thereafter, he'd be a very good backup player who can handle minutes at both wing positions.

[Dat2U]

I think Seraphin retains some value... not sure how much.

One thought I had is using Seraphin to find that stretch 4. Two guys I come up with are Derrick Williams & Carl Landry (since Landry is a FA, maybe a S&T).

Vesely, Singleton & Booker are pretty much cap filler at this point. The Wizards should reject the options on each so at least they can have some value as expiring contracts.

Also I think there's a better than 50% chance Ariza opts out so he can get a 3-4 year deal. With Webster being a free agent as well and likely looking for a big pay day, we may really have a hole at the 3 if we don't come away with Otto Porter in the draft.

[nate33]

I think Seraphin retains some value... not sure how much.

One thought I had is using Seraphin to find that stretch 4. Two guys I come up with are Derrick Williams & Carl Landry (since Landry is a FA, maybe a S&T).

Vesely, Singleton & Booker are pretty much cap filler at this point. The Wizards should reject the options on each so at least they can have some value as expiring contracts.

Also I think there's a better than 50% chance Ariza opts out so he can get a 3-4 year deal. With Webster being a free agent as well and likely looking for a big pay day, we may really have a hole at the 3 if we don't come away with Otto Porter in the draft.

I think the odds of Ariza opting out are much lower. I wrote this recently in the Trade Thread:

I seriously doubt Ariza opts out. He is owed $7.7M next year. As a free agent, I think the best he could get is a full MLE deal (4 years $21.5M). So he'd hit the market again at age 32 having made just $21M over 4 years. At age 32, he'd probably only be getting vet minimum type offer at that age, so he'd end up making a total of $22M in the next 5 years.

At his age, there is no reason to expect a decline next year so he's better off waiting a year, getting that $7.7M that he owed, and then signing a full MLE deal. He makes an extra $2.7M more next year, and ends up getting guaranteed money all the way until he turns 33. In that scenario, he'd make $29M in the next 5 years.

Obviously, one has to factor injury risk. Maybe he'd rather lock up a long term deal now than take his chances that he has another good season next year in his contract year. Anything is possible. But the bottom line is that he could be walking away from as much as $7M over 5 years. That's a lot of coin to sacrifice for security.

[closg00]

+1 on Ariza not opting-out, for those same reasons.

[Dat2U]

I think it also depends on how Ariza feels being stuck on the Wizards? He already knows they tried to trade him at the deadline. Maybe he'd like some control on where he goes? Players in the past have been willing to sacrifice money to get out Dodge City so it wouldn't be unheard of. Everytime I see a IDGAF night like Ariza had yesterday then I wonder if he's counting the days till he can exercise his option.

[fishercob]

I think it also depends on how Ariza feels being stuck on the Wizards? He already knows they tried to trade him at the deadline. Maybe he'd like some control on where he goes? Players in the past have been willing to sacrifice money to get out Dodge City so it wouldn't be unheard of. Everytime I see a IDGAF night like Ariza had yesterday then I wonder if he's counting the days till he can exercise his option.

I see this aspect, as well as the guaranteed money vs. injury risk. The other thing I have always looked at with Ariza is that he has been traded a ton in his career. He's been on six teams in 8 season and has been traded 4 times. If he's the got to opportunity to sign somewhere that he wants to be for 4 years this summer, I think he considers it. If he doesn't, I think he goes into next season knowing there's a decent chance he's traded again before next deadline before hitting free agency next summer. If he gets hurt next year, he could be screwed as a FA next summer.

I don't think it's an easy decision for him.

[stevemcqueen1]

The man is a hyper-efficient stat stuffer with legit NBA size and length and great intangibles who is leading his team to a #1 seed in the Tournament. Georgetown won 13 of those 14 games, including 11 in a row. And those numbers are hurt a bit by Georgetown's slow pace. You can tack on another 5% to those numbers if you adjust for pace.

Trust me. He is going in the top 5.

That may be true. But it's also true that the position and role of "wing shooter" is the easiest to find in the NBA and there are tons of adequate vets out there at that position every year.

The least efficient use of team building resources is to overpay for wing shooters who are not All Stars or potential All Stars.

A max money or near max money All Star SF is one of the best contracts in the NBA. A max money or near max money SF that is not an All Star is the worst contract in the NBA because there are a ton of Martell Websters out there every single year available to even the worst teams in the league for non qualifying vet deals, min contracts, or a sliver of the MLE.

A top five pick is nearly as valuable a team building resource as the ability to sign a max or near max contract. Especially a top 3 pick, where most of the AS from any draft class come from. The best use of such a pick is to imagine you're drafting a player who will deservingly command 8 figures annually in his next extension. If you're not drafting that with your pick, that means you're drafting a role player and squandering an extremely valuable resource.

And the only players who really deserve 8 figures annually are good starting PGs, AS wings, and good starting big men.

Is Porter going to be one of those kinds of players? I like him and think he's a good fit for us but I am very skeptical of him becoming an All Star down the road. I'm not convinced you can't get 90% of Porter in his prime from keeping players like Ariza and Martell. I don't think Porter has the physical attributes to be an AS SF.

The only way Otto Porter is going to be worth a top five pick IMO, is if the team that takes him thinks he's a future All Star. Especially so if he's to be a top 3 pick like a lot of Wiz fans think he will be.

Outside of the top 5? Anything goes IMO. History shows your chances of drafting an AS or cornerstone starter get pretty bad outside of the top five picks or so in an average draft class. At that point you're probably drafting a role player or a high upside lotto ticket project. Or a bust.

I think there are reasons beyond just, "they're all behind the curve" for why Porter isn't ranked in the top 5, much less the top 3 in the rest of the draftnik world. And I think there are all kinds of local, viewing, team need, and proximity biases to explain why Wizards fans are so much higher on the kid than everyone else is.

[stevemcqueen1]

Obviously, one has to factor injury risk. Maybe he'd rather lock up a long term deal now than take his chances that he has another good season next year in his contract year. Anything is possible. But the bottom line is that he could be walking away from as much as $7M over 5 years. That's a lot of coin to sacrifice for security.

Agreed. And I think it's a pretty big assumption that Ariza could actually get the full MLE or even get a long term deal this summer. I think it's extremely unlikely Ariza declines his option this summer. I bet 7.7 million is three times what he could get for next year's salary on the open market.

There isn't a lot of FA money to go around this summer as most teams will actually be trying to shed salary. And the SG/SF market is pretty saturated with role playing vets this summer. Most of the contenders won't be adding any expensive salary since a lot of them are over the tax so taking a pay cut to play for a contender isn't a great option for him either.

If I were his agent, I'd advise him to pick up the option and hit FA next summer with 7.7 million in hand. Plus staying in DC this year gives the Wiz Early Bird rights at least, maybe even full Bird Rights, I'm not sure. He would have the option of signing a new deal in the summer of 2014 and staying in DC if he wanted stability in his career or if he felt the Wiz were trending up and he could ride along with a young team to the playoffs in the prime of his career.

[nuposse04]

Your reasoning for Porters lack of ability to be an AS are because a lack of physical attributes? No offense man, but you champion a guy like Zellar who has physical limitations that are just as apparent, if not more vulgar then Porters.

The only, and I mean only reason I pause when considering Porter is because I think his standing vertical might be like 27 inches. Outside of leaping, he is fine everywhere else. He's positionally a better defender then anyone else in his category, great rebounder, scorer, and isn't a black hole on offense. He has the frame to add on weight. I suspect he'll be able to do so. It isn't like he's as weak as durant out there.

[popper]

I agree, depressingly, that Vesely, Booker and Singleton have little to no value right now (nice job Ernie). But I still think there is hope for Singleton. I believe with another off season he can improve his shot to the extent that he would become a serviceable backup PF. Wittman was praising him during training camp and he showed flashes on and off during the season.

[stevemcqueen1]

Also I think there's a better than 50% chance Ariza opts out so he can get a 3-4 year deal. With Webster being a free agent as well and likely looking for a big pay day, we may really have a hole at the 3 if we don't come away with Otto Porter in the draft.

Well, first I think Ariza will pick up his option and I don't think Webster can command a big pay day. I think he's looking at signing for a portion of the MLE at best.

And second, even if we lost both Ariza and Martell this summer, we don't have to draft Otto Porter to fill that position with a decent player. It's easily the most available position in basketball every year and this year is no exception.

Here's a somewhat conservative list of wings that will very likely be available this summer because they've got player options they won't pick up, team options that won't be picked up, non guaranteed contracts that will get them traded, or expiring deals that make them UFAs:

- Manu Ginobli
- Kevin Martin
- Kyle Korver
- Martell Webster
- Randy Foye
- Tony Allen
- J.J. Redick
- Carlos Delfino
- JR Smith
- Nick Young
- Ronnie Brewer
- Rip Hamilton
- Marquise Daniels
- Anthony Morrow
- Raja Bell
- Leandro Barbosa
- Wesley Johnson
- Marco Belinelli
- Mike Dunleavey
- Dahntay Jones
- Keith Bogans
- Roger Mason
- Stephen Jackson
- Dorrell Wright
- Chase Budinger
- Corey Brewer
- Josh Howard
- Corey Maggette
- Matt Barnes
- Demarre Carroll
- Sam Young
- Luke Babbitt
- Francisco Garcia
- Cartier Martin
- Jerry Stackhouse
- Luke Walton
- Hedo Turkoglu
- Al Harrington

The supply of starting caliber or sixth man caliber shooting wings is likely far greater than the league-wide demand. And if Ariza and Martell are both gone, we can offer a rare starting spot that would probably make us very attractive to a lot of different types of FAs.

We've got the full MLE available to use if we want. I don't think we will have any trouble signing a good wing shooter to start at SF for next year if need be.

Positional need becomes a far less compelling reason to draft Porter when you look at it like that.

[nuposse04]

every single one of those players has a significant flaw compared to Porter. We're "getting by" currently at SF, but is apparent at times when we could do better. Especially in the playmaking category. Also, manu and martin aren't leaving their respective teams.

I'd much rather Webster come off the bench, but Ariza isn't starting quality anymore either IMO (although he's improved to his credit).

If porter can give spot minutes at the 4 that also makes for a very appealing end of game lineup:

Wall
Beal
Webster
Porter
Nene

[stevemcqueen1]

If Ariza picks up his option this summer, we'll really only have two immediate holes to fill: 3rd guard and/or backup PG & another wing shooter, possibly a starter or a sixth man.

I think we can use our MLE this summer to sign both of those players. I already posted a list of SGs and SFs for the wing position (though not all of them are necessarily shooters). Here's a list of potential candidates for the third guard/backup PG spot:

- Rodney Stuckey
- Chauncey Billups
- Mo Williams
- Jose Calderon
- Jarrett Jack
- DJ Augustin
- Devin Harris
- Mario Chalmers
- Daniel Gibson
- Beno Udrih
- Nate Robinson
- AJ Price
- Will Bynum
- Nolan Smith
- Earl Watson
- Royal Ivey
- Sebastian Telfair
- Randy Foye
- Tony Allen
- Leandro Barbosa

Pretty decent sized list and we only need one. I think we could probably get a pretty good player

I really don't think there is a need at all to spend the draft pick on a backup guard, or even a starting caliber SF. The only way I'd draft those positions is if they were the clear cut BPA.

What we won't be able to find for cheap and easy in FA is a starting center. A position we will have to fill by the end of next year. I don't trust Seraphin to be that guy frankly. I think we need to use our assets, best of which is this lotto pick, to solidify that position long term either by drafting and developing a guy or putting together a package for one via trade.

I think it would be a less than ideal situation to draft Shabazz with a high pick unless we know for a fact he can start at SF and play almost full time there. I think it would be a bad situation to draft McLemore, Oladipo, or Smart with our pick since, let's be real, we'll never get a proper return on investment for them. Who is going to pay us through the nose for them when they know we can't use them?

And I think it would be an abject failure to come away from this draft with only McCollum, MCW, or Burke.

Especially since this is such a top heavy big man crop.

[stevemcqueen1]

every single one of those players has a significant flaw compared to Porter. We're "getting by" currently at SF, but is apparent at times when we could do better. Especially in the playmaking category. Also, manu and martin aren't leaving their respective teams.

I'd much rather Webster come off the bench, but Ariza isn't starting quality anymore either IMO (although he's improved to his credit).

If porter can give spot minutes at the 4 that also makes for a very appealing end of game lineup:

Wall
Beal
Webster
Porter
Nene

Maybe they are worse than Porter will be. But I think Martell and Ariza today give us 90 % of what fully developed Otto Porter could. I don't think Porter is a future AS. I think he's a high quality role player.

Otto Porter starting at PF is a bad situation. The guy simply lacks the body to play big minutes at PF and we don't have a LeBron to cover up for him and guard his man.

And net-net, we're much better off spending our money and most valuable resources on finding a high quality big man and going cheap at SF than vice versa. That's just a basketball truism.

Now if the option isn't there for us to get a decent big man, then by all means, draft Porter where ever we pick. But I find that somewhat unlikely given there are at least three good big men prospects at the top of this draft class and DeMarcus Cousins is just hanging around in an increasingly toxic situation, just begging to be traded.

Also, Kevin Martin will probably leave OKC this summer. OKC can't afford to keep him anywhere close to his current salary and they're probably going to use his expiring to shed salary. OKC is trying their hardest to stay under the tax do they can keep their construction together long term.

[nuposse04]

Porter wouldn't start at 4, I was saying end of game situations, you know..for like...floor spacing...

You still haven't really provided me a logical justification for writing off his physical limitations while still maintaining in past arguments Cody "T-rex arms McGoo" Zeller isn't physically impaired himself.

I think Porter's floor is a hybrid of Ariza and Wesbter, which is the amusing part.

I think the plan moving forward is continent a little more on hope then I'd want it to be. We have to still hope Wall finds his game, leads us to a 8-5 seed next year, and then in '14 season, attract a big worth a damn.

[stevemcqueen1]

Your reasoning for Porters lack of ability to be an AS are because a lack of physical attributes? No offense man, but you champion a guy like Zellar who has physical limitations that are just as apparent, if not more vulgar then Porters.

The only, and I mean only reason I pause when considering Porter is because I think his standing vertical might be like 27 inches. Outside of leaping, he is fine everywhere else. He's positionally a better defender then anyone else in his category, great rebounder, scorer, and isn't a black hole on offense. He has the frame to add on weight. I suspect he'll be able to do so. It isn't like he's as weak as durant out there.

Durant actually has more length and bulk than Porter does and even he struggles a bit with wings. Porter is a bean pole who has been pushed around by college wings. Durant is also a far better athlete than Porter, far better scorer, far better everything really so he can cope with his relative lack of strength. Porter does not have the handle and ISO scoring ability of an AS SF either.

Zeller is physically limited? He's a tremendous athlete for his position, very fast, very coordinated, an explosive above the rim player. He lacks strength certainly. But again, so does Porter. And Zeller is a 5, a far more valuable position and a position where there are far fewer great athletes running around in the NBA. The delta of his level of athleticism against his position is night and day bigger than Porter's.

[stevemcqueen1]

You still haven't really provided me a logical justification for writing off his physical limitations while still maintaining in past arguments Cody "T-rex arms McGoo" Zeller isn't physically impaired himself.

You've essentially based your entire opinion of Zeller on an internet rumor of his arm length.

[nate33]

- Manu Ginobli - zero chance we get him
- Kevin Martin - zero chance we get him
- Kyle Korver
- Martell Webster
- Randy Foye - can't play SF
- Tony Allen - zero chance we get him
- J.J. Redick - can't play SF
- Carlos Delfino - sucks
- JR Smith
- Nick Young - um, no.
- Ronnie Brewer
- Rip Hamilton - too old
- Marquise Daniels - sucks
- Anthony Morrow - too small
- Raja Bell - too old
- Leandro Barbosa - too old
- Wesley Johnson - sucks
- Marco Belinelli - sucks
- Mike Dunleavey - too old
- Dahntay Jones - sucks
- Keith Bogans - sucks
- Roger Mason - sucks
- Stephen Jackson - too old
- Dorrell Wright
- Chase Budinger
- Corey Brewer
- Josh Howard - too old
- Corey Maggette - too old
- Matt Barnes - only plays for contenders
- Demarre Carroll - sucks
- Sam Young - sucks
- Luke Babbitt - sucks
- Francisco Garcia - sucks
- Cartier Martin - sucks
- Jerry Stackhouse - too old
- Luke Walton - sucks
- Hedo Turkoglu - too old
- Al Harrington - too old

So let's look at the list of actual possibilities:
- Kyle Korver
- Martell Webster
- JR Smith
- Ronnie Brewer
- Dorrell Wright
- Chase Budinger
- Corey Brewer

Korver and Budinger don't defend well. C.Brewer can't shoot. So we're really only talking about Webster, Smith, Ronnie Brewer and Dorrell Wright as guys who could conceivably start. Smith is probably unobtainable (and generally bad for team chemistry). None of these guys are better than what I project Porter will become.

[stevemcqueen1]

Korver and Budinger don't defend well. C.Brewer can't shoot. So we're really only talking about Webster, Smith, Ronnie Brewer and Dorrell Wright as guys who could conceivably start. Smith is probably unobtainable (and generally bad for team chemistry). None of these guys are better than what I project Porter will become.

Whether you're consciously doing it or not, I think you've needlessly limited our options to serve an agenda that Porter would be a great need pick despite the position he plays.

You and I both know that most of the guys you claim suck or are too old would be fine on a one or two year deal. By your unexplained criteria I'm guessing you would have said Martell sucks before this year too.

It's a simple truism that "wing shooter" is the easiest position in the NBA to fill. Do you really want to argue against that?